CIA report: Greek Türkiye power balance and future predictions

[Cabatli_TR]

The CIA successfully predicted that the balance of power might change in favor of Turkey over time.

Here, the superiority that Turkey will gain when the Aksaz Naval Base, the construction of which continues in the years when the report was written, is completed is mentioned.

In the years when the report was written, it was explained how Turkey balanced the situation with the moves it had made while Greece had air superiority. I would like to read the reports they are writing now and the reasons for the protection agreements they signed with Greece with possible scenarios because what these guys write usually happens.

Here on the other hand the possible results that will emerge according to the position of the USA in a possible Greek-Turkish war are mentioned.

Here, it describes the threat perception in terms of Turkey and Greece and report mentions about the personnel and equipment losses that will occur after a possible Turkish-Greek War in the Aegean in that years when report was written.

Here, Report talk about the 7/10 balance of power that US is trying to implement.

Here, It mentioned How was the Turkish Armed Forces weakened by the US embargoes against Greece in the late 1970s. Even though they try to achieve similar results with a same practice today, they decided to make Greece their base because they knew that they would not be able to achieve same results.

In the report written in 1970/80, CIA is talking about the arming of the islands and its advantages against Turkiye

To read full report:

https://t.co/EQiD0Ix9ah

 

[Saithan]

The CIA successfully predicted that the balance of power might change in favor of Turkey over time.

View attachment 48250


Here, the superiority that Turkey will gain when the Aksaz Naval Base, the construction of which continues in the years when the report was written, is completed is mentioned.

View attachment 48252


In the years when the report was written, it was explained how Turkey balanced the situation with the moves it had made while Greece had air superiority. I would like to read the reports they are writing now and the reasons for the protection agreements they signed with Greece with possible scenarios because what these guys write usually happens.

View attachment 48253

Here on the other hand the possible results that will emerge according to the position of the USA in a possible Greek-Turkish war are mentioned.
View attachment 48254

Here, it describes the threat perception in terms of Turkey and Greece and report mentions about the personnel and equipment losses that will occur after a possible Turkish-Greek War in the Aegean in that years when report was written.

View attachment 48255

To read full report:

https://t.co/EQiD0Ix9ah

This is an important piece to Mavi Vatan. Which explains the embargoes aimed at maiming our country by not providing newer jet planes.

which once again proves that we must build our own jet. Even a lightjet that can carry less missiles than F16 would ensure capabilities from the air.

Hence why Hurjet should come with sovjet engine and Western engine.

 

[Bylis]

You don't need cia to predict that. The Us tried to maintain a balance in the armament provided to those 2 countries. The game changed when Turkey reached political stability and the economy grew. RTE prioritised the indigenous industry with a particular care for the defence one by 2007 circa. That priority hasn't changed,that's why the turkish economy has been hit in its weakest point,the currency/trade balance deficit. The way out is the export oriented industry output with particular care for the value added products.

 

[Saithan]

You don't need cia to predict that. The Us tried to maintain a balance in the armament provided to those 2 countries. The game changed when Turkey reached political stability and the economy grew. RTE prioritised the indigenous industry with a particular care for the defence one by 2007 circa. That priority hasn't changed,that's why the turkish economy has been hit in its weakest point,the currency/trade balance deficit. The way out is the export oriented industry output with particular care for the value added products.

No the headless spending on all other sectors without respect to budget/planning has sucked the economy dry. Add to that the refugees.

 

[Cabatli_TR]

While writing this report, they predicted that the balance of power would change in favor of Turkey. However, they did not need a change in their policies because they thought that such a serious change would not happen in time.

When you read this report, you can better understand the reason for the change in American policies in disputes between two countries and US's overall Turkiye strategy in other geopolitical problems and their ambitious to stop Turkish advancement in industry and defence matters by embargoes and directly targetting Turkish economy in the current situation.

The report also mentions the difficulty of resupplying the Islands during a war in that years. Today, we describe this situation as impossible. It must be crazy to send reinforcements to the islands next to a country like Turkiye. It will be equal to sending them to death while tens of drones are monitoring every square of the Turkish coasts.

 

[Bylis]

No the headless spending on all other sectors without respect to budget/planning has sucked the economy dry. Add to that the refugees.

When a country grows rapidly, those things happen. The Turkish businessman got used to work for foreign brands( Peugeot, Renault,Daimler benz etc)and not create their own. The government pushed them really hard towards this mentality with the TOGG brand. It's not only about the government, it is mainly about the dynamism of the society;look no further than northern Europe.

 

[GoatsMilk]

While writing this report, they predicted that the balance of power would change in favor of Turkey. However, they did not need a change in their policies because they thought that such a serious change would not happen in time.

When you read this report, you can better understand the reason for the change in American policies in disputes between two countries and US's overall Turkiye strategy in other geopolitical problems and their ambitious to stop Turkish advancement in industry and defence matters by embargoes and directly targetting Turkish economy in the current situation.

The report also mentions the difficulty of resupplying the Islands during a war in that years. Today, we describe this situation as impossible. It must be crazy to send reinforcements to the islands next to a country like Turkiye. It will be equal to sending them to death while tens of drones are monitoring every square of the Turkish coasts.

View attachment 48261 View attachment 48260

reading that, basically everything changed for Turkey while greece regressed in every imaginable way and going to extreme measures to serve her nation to america.

I suspect the CIA would write now only thing to deter Turkey from defeating greek hostility is direct American intervention.

 

[Cabatli_TR]

reading that, basically everything changed for Turkey while greece regressed in every imaginable way and going to extreme measures to serve her nation to america.

I suspect the CIA would write now only thing to deter Turkey from defeating greek hostility is direct American intervention.

It seems that seeing a Turkiye that fires its own long-range missiles from its own destroyer, torpedos from domestic submarines, creates its own layered air defense system with its own SAM missile technology, reaches space with its own rockets and fires own BVR missiles from its own stealth aircrafts and drones is probably equivalent to a nightmare for the West. That's why the bosses of Greece are in a rush to slow the balance of power which is shifting abnormally rapidly. Their motto is "Now or bye bye Hellenism dreams, E.Med resources and Aegean".

That's why they want to unleash Greece on us and repeat the plan they tried in 1920 but ended in humiliation for them. They think that even if Greece is defeated again with all support they receive, they will lose nothing but Turkiye's economy will be targeted...

 

[Bylis]

It seems that seeing a Turkiye that fires its own long-range missiles from its own destroyer, torpedos from domestic submarines, creates its own layered air defense system with its own SAM missile technology, reaches space with its own rockets and fires own BVR missiles from its own stealth aircrafts and drones is probably equivalent to a nightmare for the West. That's why the bosses of Greece are in a rush to slow the balance of power which is shifting abnormally rapidly. Their motto is "Now or bye bye Hellenism dreams, E.Med resources and Aegean".

That's why they want to unleash Greece on us and repeat the plan they tried in 1920 but ended in humiliation for them. They think that even if Greece is defeated again with all support they receive, they will lose nothing but Turkiye's economy will be targeted...

It's not the same as 1920.
Greece and Turkey(officially Ottoman) had roughly the same armament,in quality and quantity. Greece will have some quality in air power(Rafale,F16V) in a couple of years, but not enough to turn the tables. Turkey has missiles and drones,which can wreck havoc. Siper A2AD in the most urgent system in the short to medium term. In the medium-long term,Mius,Tius and TFX will enable deep strike capability in quantity (misiles are very expensive and limited in number).

 

[TR_123456]

The balance act of the US from the 70s/80s/90s doesnt work anymore,so they decided to change tactics by establishing 9 new US bases on Greek soil as a ''deterent''.
The US made a big mistake which it is aware of but it is to late,the relationship with my country Türkiye is at the lowest level in history.
A positive change is no more a possibility,the US lost a valuable ''Muslim''(emphasis on Muslim} ally which will ensure the distrust of Muslim countries in the world.
If it still exist in 5 to 10 years NATO will be seen as an insignificant White Christian club.
Insignificant because of the decline in every possible context,be it in population,economic or military power.
I say time is on our side.

 

[Bylis]

The balance act of the US from the 70s/80s/90s doesnt work anymore,so they decided to change tactics by establishing 9 new US bases on Greek soil as a ''deterent''.
The US made a big mistake which it is aware of but it is to late,the relationship with my country Türkiye is at the lowest level in history.
A positive change is no more a possibility,the US lost a valuable ''Muslim''(emphasis on Muslim} ally which will ensure the distrust of Muslim countries in the world.
If it still exist in 5 to 10 years NATO will be seen as an insignificant White Christian club.
Insignificant because of the decline in every possible context,be it in population,economic or military power.
I say time is on our side.

Turkey will grow powerful by observing how things are going, though no one can predict the future. However, the hegemonic power,doesn't feel threatened by Turkey as such, but the aggregation of other countries,which are culturaly/historically close to it(m.east,levant,n.africa,c. asia and the balkans).
Nato might not be there,but the power won't fade in 10 or 20 years. History is full of the same lesson: never underestimate your opponent! Persia with Macedonia,The eastern Roman empire with the Seljucs,Mongols with the Mamluks,The Eastern Roman empire with the Rashidun(4 first halifs) etc.Russia is a living example.

 

[GoatsMilk]

The balance act of the US from the 70s/80s/90s doesnt work anymore,so they decided to change tactics by establishing 9 new US bases on Greek soil as a ''deterent''.
The US made a big mistake which it is aware of but it is to late,the relationship with my country Türkiye is at the lowest level in history.
A positive change is no more a possibility,the US lost a valuable ''Muslim''(emphasis on Muslim} ally which will ensure the distrust of Muslim countries in the world.
If it still exist in 5 to 10 years NATO will be seen as an insignificant White Christian club.
Insignificant because of the decline in every possible context,be it in population,economic or military power.
I say time is on our side.

I think its somewhat the wrong way to look at it, the USA has constantly been managing what Turkey can and cannot do, in that sense they have been exceptionally successful. Now they see Turkish domestic developments are progressing they have moved to make Greece a US base and increase their support for the PKKistan agenda. Despite Armenia getting crushed in the recent Azeri war the USA ran to show their support for armenians and visit the propaganda memorial as a message directed towards Turkey.

As Turks we need to find a way to break this cycle of regional minorities being used against us. Our military developments are progressing but diplomatically and politically we are a still a failure.

 

[TR_123456]

I think its somewhat the wrong way to look at it, the USA has constantly been managing what Turkey can and cannot do, in that sense they have been exceptionally successful. Now they see Turkish domestic developments are progressing they have moved to make Greece a US base and increase their support for the PKKistan agenda. Despite Armenia getting crushed in the recent Azeri war the USA ran to show their support for armenians and visit the propaganda memorial as a message directed towards Turkey.

As Turks we need to find a way to break this cycle of regional minorities being used against us. Our military developments are progressing but diplomatically and politically we are a still a failure.

''Diplomatically and politically'' is not an option anymore,the only way forward is decisive military action.
This can be psychological or physical which means either show of force or the use of it.
No more bs.

 

[GoatsMilk]

''Diplomatically and politically'' is not an option anymore,the only way forward is decisive military action.
This can be psychological or physical which means either show of force or the use of it.
No more bs.

So on the one hand you are not wrong, nothing is going to be resolved with these people via discussions. But the problem is that Turkey will be going up against American support and European support. Overnight they could potentially cut off our economy from the world.

Even though Greece has been artificially armed to such a level that they got more war material then most if not all European nations, its not them that concerns me. Its what the americans and the europeans do.

I sometimes wonder how statesman like Ataturk would have navigated these troubles.

also i love reading these old reports, it gives you a real insight into how your rival sees you.

 

[TR_123456]

So on the one hand you are not wrong, nothing is going to be resolved with these people via discussions. But the problem is that Turkey will be going up against American support and European support. Overnight they could potentially cut off our economy from the world.

Even though Greece has been artificially armed to such a level that they got more war material then most if not all European nations, its not them that concerns me. Its what the americans and the europeans do.

I sometimes wonder how statesman like Ataturk would have navigated these troubles.

You are right if it takes more then 72 hours but wrong if it takes less.
They cant do shit,our economy is already in the worst shape.

 

[GoatsMilk]

You are right if it takes more then 72 hours but wrong if it takes less.
They cant do shit,our economy is already in the worst shape.

i didnt think of that, i live in england and sometimes i forget how bad the Turkish economy already is. I guess at least erdogans got that on his side, he made the economy so bad that our enemies can't use our economy against us haha.

 

[Baryshx]

I think it's okay if the cia doesn't report on these issues anymore. Because Greece is a finished country. There is nothing that can be done for Greece. Half of the 10 million population is women, the other half is elderly, children, etc.

Its population will decrease further and it will age, you can look at birth rates.

 

[Huelague]

A new relation (deal) with China is not an option. Its a MUST!

 

[Ryder]

Usa is trying to contain Turkish ambitions.

Usa now realised that Turkiye is undertaking its own destiny.

 

[Ryder]

The balance act of the US from the 70s/80s/90s doesnt work anymore,so they decided to change tactics by establishing 9 new US bases on Greek soil as a ''deterent''.
The US made a big mistake which it is aware of but it is to late,the relationship with my country Türkiye is at the lowest level in history.
A positive change is no more a possibility,the US lost a valuable ''Muslim''(emphasis on Muslim} ally which will ensure the distrust of Muslim countries in the world.
If it still exist in 5 to 10 years NATO will be seen as an insignificant White Christian club.
Insignificant because of the decline in every possible context,be it in population,economic or military power.
I say time is on our side.

Usa has been the enemy of Turkiye from the start dont forget how they bombed Samsun and provided naval escorts to Greek, British and French ships in our waters.

Also woodrow wilson planned on gifting a huge chunk of Turkiye to the Armenians.

Usa has always been an enemy we only became close due to Communism and the threat of the Soviet union. Once the cold war ended the USA began to see Turkiye as an enemy again.

They are not supporting the Greeks, Armenians and Kurds against us for no reason.