TR Defence Exports & Updates

[Zafer]

Baykar is supposed to be making like 360 TB2 and 40 Akıncı in 2023

360 * 11,25mn = US$ 4.050 mn
40 * 25mn = US$ 1.000 mn
Total = US$ 5.050 mn

My guesstimate

 

[TheInsider]

Baykar will produce 500 TB2 and 40+ Akıncı next year as stated by the CEO of the company. TB2s alone are worth a lot. TB2 has a flyaway export price of 5+ million. A package with mobile and fixed ground stations, signal relays, training, and maintenance&test equipment costs a lot higher than this. UAE is paying 2 billion for 120 TB2s.

 

[Agha Sher]

Baykar will produce 500 TB2 and 40+ Akıncı next year. TB2s alone are worth a lot. TB2 has a flyaway export price of 5+ million. A package with mobile and fixed ground stations, signal relays, training, and maintenance&test equipment costs a lot higher than this. BAE is paying 2 billion for 120 TB2s.

UAE's ASP is then also 16.7m USD per drone. Aligned with Romania. Seems to be new price for the entire package for non-allies.

 

[TheInsider]

UAE's ASP is then also 16.7m USD per drone. Aligned with Romania. Seems to be new price for the entire package for non-allies.

Yes. If you want the complete package with a 5 year guarantee this seems to be the new price. Of course allies likes Azerbaijan will get different deals.

 

[Afif]

@TheInsider
could you explain how they count export sum of every month?
is it based on how much they deliver to the customers or how much order they get ?

 

[Agha Sher]

@TheInsider
could you explain how they count total export sum of every month?
is it based on how much they deliver to the customers or how much order they get ?

Revenue is registered when delivery is made. That is why signing multi-billion dollar export contract has no impact on this year's export figure as revenue must be recognized when delivery is made. In some large scale construction projects, revenue can be partially recognized as important construction milestone are reached.

 

[Afif]

Then it should be previous years orders ?

I guess, the first delivery is made within 2 years of the order.

 

[TheInsider]

@TheInsider
could you explain how they count export sum of every month?
is it based on how much they deliver to the customers or how much order they get ?

I'm not an expert on this but probably delivery there might also be some upfront payment maybe.

 

[Agha Sher]

Then it should be previous years orders ?

Yes - so all deliveries made in that given month will contribute to that month's export figure.

 

[Huelague]

I hope we are working to update/upgrade existing TB2, like the one Ukraine site has published as TB3.
Slighter, faster, stealthier with more weapon load, endurance and range.

 

[Agha Sher]

I'm not an expert on this but probably delivery there might also be some upfront payment maybe.

At least in corporate accounting practices, cash payment is not the same as revenue recognition. Of course, cash is paid upfront in most cases to cover production expenses and working capital

 

[Zafer]

They later rectified the number from 500 to 360.

 

[Afif]

Aerospace And Defense Industry Of Turkey Market Size | Mordor Intelligence

The Aerospace And Defense Industry Of Turkey Market size is expected to reach USD 15.27 billion in 2024 and grow at a CAGR of 1.15% to reach USD 16.17 billion by 2029.

www.mordorintelligence.com

This report suggesting that, Turkish companies won 8.5 billion dollars of orders in 2021.
@TheInsider Any comment ?

 

[TheInsider]

They later rectified the number from 500 to 360.

Haluk Bayraktar, “Yılda 500 adet TB2 üreteceğiz” | Airway Post

Baykar Genel Müdürü Haluk Bayraktar, Bayraktar TB2'nin 24 ülkeye ihraç edildiğini, daha yeni envantere giren Akıncı için de 4 ülkeyle imzaların atıldığını söyledi. Bayraktar, gelirlerinde ihracatın payının %98 olduğunu vurguladı. TÜRK savunma sanayiinin insansız hava araçları üreticisi...

www.airwaypost.com

 

[Zafer]

Haluk Bayraktar, “Yılda 500 adet TB2 üreteceğiz” | Airway Post

Baykar Genel Müdürü Haluk Bayraktar, Bayraktar TB2'nin 24 ülkeye ihraç edildiğini, daha yeni envantere giren Akıncı için de 4 ülkeyle imzaların atıldığını söyledi. Bayraktar, gelirlerinde ihracatın payının %98 olduğunu vurguladı. TÜRK savunma sanayiinin insansız hava araçları üreticisi...

www.airwaypost.com

Haluk Bayraktar Türkiye'nin beklediği proje için tarih verdi

Baykar CEO'su Haluk Bayraktar, TCG Anadolu gibi kısa pistleri olan amfibi gemilerine iniş ve kalkış yapabilen Kızılelma'nın ilk uçuşunu birkaç ay içinde yapacağını açıkladı.

m.yeniakit.com.tr

They later said "a minimum of 30 copies per month". So it is 360+.

 

[TheInsider]

"At least 30". I know that Baykar wants to gradually increase production capacity and the end target is to hit 46 TB2s per month. That is roughly 550 TB2s. Now having the capacity doesn't necessarily mean the company will produce at full capacity all the time. The monthly production capacity target for Akıncı and KE is 6 and 4.

 

[Agha Sher]

"At least 30". I know that Baykar wants to gradually increase production capacity and the end target is to hit 46 TB2s per month. That is roughly 550 TB2s. Now having the capacity doesn't necessarily mean the company will produce at full capacity all the time. The monthly production capacity target for Akıncı and KE is 6 and 4.

6 Akinci a month would mean 72 a year. This in itself is a crazy number not even considering 48 KE. Baykar could in the near future become one of the largest defence companies in the world.

If 5bn USD is reached in 2023, they will enter top 25.

By 2030, they could easily be in top 10. (requiring approximately 15bn USD in revenue).

In 2022, they are in top 70.

Baykar surge should also help Aselsan and Roketsan to become among 30 largest defence companies.

 

[Combat-Master]

6 Akinci a month would mean 72 a year. This in itself is a crazy number not even considering 48 KE. Baykar could in the near future become one of the largest defence companies in the world.

If 5bn USD is reached in 2023, they will enter top 25.

By 2030, they could easily be in top 10. (requiring approximately 15bn USD in revenue).

In 2022, they are in top 70.

Baykar surge should also help Aselsan and Roketsan to become among 30 largest defence companies.

Baykar must insist on Turkish Smart Munitions and Sensors for this to boost Aselsan and Roketsan significantly. Perhaps a longer strategy could also have TAI providing dual use communication satellites, for TV broadcasts and Ku-band uplink

 

[Huelague]

Baykar must insist on Turkish Smart Munitions and Sensors for this to boost Aselsan and Roketsan significantly. Perhaps a longer strategy could also have TAI providing dual use communication satellites, for TV broadcasts and Ku-band uplink

How?

 

[Brokengineer]

Baykar must insist on Turkish Smart Munitions and Sensors for this to boost Aselsan and Roketsan significantly. Perhaps a longer strategy could also have TAI providing dual use communication satellites, for TV broadcasts and Ku-band uplink

I think problem with munition integration would be the case for a sale to rather developed countries like england, italy.
For the current line of the drone customers, they would not have a chance to choose and they would not even bother asking an application of western munition that is not cost effective at all.