Ethiopia: The fate of Oromia under Abiy’s Prosperity Party
Posted on Monday, 30 August 2021 11:55In this Wednesday, June 16, 2021 file photo, Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed speaks at a final campaign rally at a stadium in the town of Jimma in the southwestern Oromia Region of Ethiopia (AP Photo/Mulugeta Ayene, File)
Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in April 2018 after anti-government protests erupted in Oromia following the ruling Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front’s (EPRDF) near clean sweep in the 2015 elections.
The protests spread to Amhara and other regions, shaking the government and forcing reshuffles of top officials, regionally and then nationally. For Abiy, it was a meteoric rise.
The new premier, a former army colonel and then top intelligence official, first became a member of the federal parliament in 2010 and served a year as a federal minister of science and technology in 2015-16. He gained popularity in his appointment as the head of Oromia Housing and Urban Development Bureau in October 2016. He then served as a vice-chairman of the Oromia member party of the ruling EPRDF coalition under regional president Lemma Megersa and headed the office of the party.
As Abiy ascended, he spoke the language of the street. When the Oromo protests were at their peak, he made a number of appearances on Oromia TV, the regional broadcaster now rebranded as Oromia Broadcasting Network (OBN).
On 28 November 2016, reflecting on capacity-building training for top officials in an Oromia TV interview, he said: “The Oromo people have granted us a great opportunity, and we have to use the opportunity and address the demands of the Oromo people by working day and night.” This was one of many public promises Abiy made to the Oromo people.
As a result, Oromos saw Abiy as an EPRDF insider who actually stood up for them. He became particularly popular in Addis Ababa’s satellite towns, which are home to many of the Oromo farmers who lost land in the capital’s expansion.
Abiy’s popularity was magnified by his electrifying speeches in parliament. In an address in June 2018, a little over a month after taking office, he denounced the EPRDF government’s approach, and apologized for past atrocities, even calling them acts of “terrorism”.
His references to “daylight hyenas” were thinly-veiled attacks on the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), widely considered to have dominated the EPRDF, and therefore the country, since 1991.
Although divisive, it was the type of approach that led many Oromos to feel that the sacrifices they had made were finally bearing fruit, bringing an end to an era of tyranny, and paving the way for Oromo people to gain equal treatment and have their demands addressed at the national level.
Abiy pledged to revise controversial laws, open up the political landscape, respect human rights, and hold free and fair elections. The enthusiasm in Oromia was palpable. But, the euphoria did not last long.
Reflecting, one activist whose participation in protests helped bring Abiy into power, told Ethiopia Insight in the southern outskirts of Addis: “We thought, we are finally relieved … a new dawn has risen. But now, we are engulfed by the worst darkness.”
Conflicting nationalisms
It did not take long for Abiy to change his tune and turn his back on many of the people that brought him to power. For example, less than three weeks after becoming prime minister, at a meeting with Amhara academics in Bahir Dar on 21 April 2018, he said: “Oromo nationalism reduced this great nation to a local community.”Ever since, a campaign against Oromo nationalism has proliferated with devastating effects for many Oromo people, and with disastrous implications for the country. Ethiopia’s 21 June election showed the results of this policy, with Oromo opposition voices once more sidelined.
To understand how we got here, we need to reflect upon the return of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and other key Oromo nationalist entities, the Abiy government’s EPRDF-like response to opposition dynamism in the region, crackdowns and atrocities in Oromia, and the psychological impact of lives lost to political violence, including through both inter-ethnic and intra-Oromo strife.
While reflecting on events since 2018, it’s important, too, to reflect on the ideologies that have shaped actions over time. Conflicting conceptions of nationalism, in particular around Ethiopiawinet and Oromumma – which, roughly, align with Ethiopianist centralisation and ethnic federalism – have grounded recent debates. What it means to be Oromo in Ethiopia is changing – and these changes have polarised people and politics.
While the issues are complex, the need to resolve them through inclusive national dialogue is clear. Unfortunately, based on what we have seen so far, it appears that Abiy – whose Prosperity Party (PP) is now officially elected – is not up to the task.
Prosperity’s ruling party
For many in the Oromo opposition, the seeds of this year’s electoral debacle were sown in actions widely celebrated as headline achievements of a ‘reformist government’.In November 2018, Abiy surprised many when he appointed Birtukan Midekssa, a former judge then pan-Ethiopian opposition figure, as head of the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE). It was the first of many controversial decisions which shaped the results of the election this June.
In December 2019, Abiy merged all EPRDF parties besides TPLF under the PP, along with five allied regional ruling parties. The Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), the Oromo EPRDF party, was absorbed by the PP.
By itself, the absorption did not mean that Oromo opposition parties outside of the EPRDF system would not stand a chance against PP. The ODP (formerly, the Oromo People’s Democratic Organisation, the OPDO) was already in disarray after years of civil unrest and crackdowns in Oromia as well as recent fighting between the insurgent Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and federal and regional troops. The party’s popularity had never been high and had significantly dwindled.
On the other hand, in 2019, the OLF, a party that stands for Oromo people’s self-determination, and the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) were confident of the support they enjoyed across Oromia.
While opposition leaders still doubted the impartiality of NEBE, members of both the OLF and OFC were hopeful that the election would advance democratisation. To boost their chances, party leaders agreed not to divide the vote in Oromia and joined forces in January 2020.
In May this year, one Burayu resident underscored the pre-election optimism in an interview with Ethiopia Insight: “Biltsigina (Amharic. Prosperity) knows that it is not a match for OFC and OLF. For PP, competing with either of them amounts to attempting to grab air with bare hands.”
PP’s competition for the region’s 178 federal parliamentary seats was not just with the OLF and the OFC. In urban areas, including in Addis Ababa’s surroundings, the incumbent also faced challenges from Ethiopian nationalist opposition parties like Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (Ezema).
Abiy did not take the competition lightly. As it became apparent that opening the political space in Oromia – giving room for Oromo nationalism and allowing democratic activity by opposition parties – all risked PP’s power, new restrictions were introduced.
The NEBE amended the country’s election law and devised regulations and directives for registering political parties. Under Proclamation No. 1162/2011 these included a maze of stipulations around providing witness-verified residency records and signatures for founding members of a political party – a process which was difficult to complete as, by the board’s own admission, it struggled with data management and staff unavailability.
While supporters of Abiy’s government routinely trumpet the board’s alleged newfound independence, these moves made life tough for the premier’s key opponents.
Both the OLF and the OFC concluded that Abiy’s aim in restructuring the NEBE was in order to help him win. Faith in the process crumbled further in 2020 after repeated delays to the election and the mandate for federal and state governments was extended – a move opposed by the Oromo opposition parties, the TPLF, and others.
Problems with the NEBE were not confined to the major opposition parties, or at the national level. At the regional level, smaller Oromo political parties also faced obstacles over registration. For instance, the NEBE denied accreditation certificates to 12 Oromo opposition parties.
Six of these, the United Oromo Liberation Front (UOLF), Oromo Abo Liberation Front (OALF), Oromia Liberation Democracy Front (OLDF), Oromo Liberation Unity Front (OLUF), Oromo Liberation Democracy Party (OLDP), and Oromo Democratic Alliance (ODA), jointly filed charges against NEBE in January for cancelling their registration.
When the Federal High Court reversed some of the decisions, NEBE appealed to the Federal Supreme Court. The proceedings went from January to April 2021, and, although the Supreme Court ordered the board to re-register ODA and OGLP, they were, in effect, unable to campaign in the election.
As a result of NEBE’s activities, of the 33 parties it registered at the regional level across the country, none were Oromo-focused. Similarly, Oromos were left with only three parties at the national level: the OLF, the OFC, and the Oromo Liberation Movement, a two-year-old party that admitted to a serious lack of preparation for the election and only put up two candidates against the PP in Oromia.
All of the parties consistently complained of harassment and of a lack of support from NEBE. While the board announced delays to the election on three occasions, none were linked to opposition parties’ complaints.
The OLF and the OFC, for example, complained to NEBE about arrests and harassment of their members and the closure of their offices. The OFC said over 300 senior officials and party members had been arbitrarily arrested and were languishing in prison without trial and over 200 offices had been closed down across Oromia and in other areas.
On 3 March, the OFC announced that it was unable to participate in the election because so many of its leaders were in jail, many of them after the fateful 29 June 2020 assassination of revered singer Hachalu Hundessa.
A few days after the announcement, the OLF followed suit, listing multiple reasons for its withdrawal, and condemning the “non-election” as undemocratic.
In a statement on 4 March 2021, the OFC accused NEBE of being pro-government. It demanded its offices to be reopened, members released, and for another election delay to allow time for a national dialogue. NEBE responded that the parties did not provide specifics.
The Human Rights League of the Horn of Africa (HRLHA) released a report on 24 March 2021 claiming to have verified arrests of members and closure of the offices of both the OLF and OFC in different areas.
It cited a letter sent by the OLF to NEBE on 7 December 2020, providing 39 pages accounting for arrests of 20 officials and 119 senior members at the party’s headquarters. In total, 880 members were arrested and 103 offices were closed in Oromia, Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, the Wollo area of Amhara, and in the Benishangul-Gumuz region.
The HRLHA’s report concluded that the difficulties faced by the OLF and OFC came largely from a premeditated and systematic crackdown organised by the PP, whose aim was “to push them out of the game.”
It said almost all potential candidates of both OLF and OFC, at all levels, had been incarcerated. In April this year, the UOLF, a coalition of two factions of OLF, namely OLF-Transition Authority and OLF-United, called on NEBE to extend the election period.
It proclaimed that NEBE was partial, had deliberately eliminated political parties representing the Oromo people, and was facilitating the return of what the UOLF called “Die Hard Ultra-Nationalist” parties to power – allegations the board denies. On 21 June, in Oromia, the PP put up candidates for all of the 170 constituencies in which voting took place.
Aside from the PP, there were 11 independent candidates in nine constituencies, and eight opposition parties in 58 constituencies produced 84 candidates: Ezema (46), National Movement of Amhara (NaMA) (6), 12 New Generation Party (NGP) (12), Freedom and Equality Party (FEP) (8), Enat party (5), Ethiopia Social Democratic Party (ESDP) (5), All Ethiopian Unity Organisation (AEUO) (3), and the only Oromo opposition party, OLM (1) – the sole supporter of multinational federalism. Of the 170 contested constituencies, the ruling party ran in 103 without any opposition.
Nationally, elections were held in 446 of the 547 constituencies, with a claimed turnout of more than 90% out of approximately 37 million registered voters. Voting could not take place in three of Ethiopia’s 10 regions.
Around 46% of the total population of Oromia were eligible to participate in the election. According to NEBE’s report, 15.3 million (83% of the eligible voters) were registered and 14.7 million (80% of eligible voters) voted.
Abiy won the election by what many in the media have deemed a “landslide”; the PP landed 410 seats out of 436 in the federal parliament. Joining the PP in parliament are five NaMA candidates from Amhara region, four candidates from Ezema, two from Gedeo People’s Democratic Party, and four independents.
In Oromia, the PP won 167 parliament seats out of the 170 contested seats, while the remaining seats were won by independent candidates. Those independents include two ex-members of OLF factions – Galasa Dilbo, the former head of an OLF faction called OLF-Transition Authority (OLF-TA) and Dima Negewo, former deputy chairman of the OLF faction Oromo Democratic Front (ODF) – and Ustaz Kamil Shemsu, a popular Oromo and Muslim activist. The ruling party also won all 513 contested seats in the Oromia regional council.
On 10 July, Birtukan declared: “We have managed to conduct a credible election.” Abiy congratulated all Ethiopians, saying: “Ethiopians have now registered a victory by actively participating in the election process freely without any pressure.”
Suffice to say that, in Oromia, Ethiopia’s largest regional state with around 40 million people, or 35% of the total population (the largest share), freedom to vote for any party that was not the PP was constrained. For many, it was a far fall from the “fair” process that Abiy had promised in 2018.
A bungled return
Between Abiy’s meteoric ascent and his landslide victory was a series of decisions that had damaging effects across Oromia. In June 2018, Abiy made a bold move: his parliament approved congressional ratification to remove three rebel groups from Ethiopia’s terrorist list. The OLF was invited back to Addis.The OLF was founded in 1973 with a mission to lead the liberation struggle of the Oromo people against the imperial government. In the 1980s, the rebel group was part of the fight to topple the Derg, and it formed loose alliances with the TPLF and the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) in 1989.
In 1989, TPLF leaders established the EPRDF with the Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (later, the Amhara National Democratic Movement). It became an umbrella organisation that was to be made up of several ethnic-based groups, including the OPDO (later, the ODP).
The EPRDF and OLF, alongside other rebel groups, formed a transitional government, and EPRDF insisted that the OLF give up ideas of secession.
Relations turned violent as the struggle for Oromo liberation was sidelined. OLF was forced into retreat, its members exiled to Eritrea. There, although factionalised, they remained devoted to armed struggle against the EPRDF government – until Abiy invited them back in 2018.
Removing the OLF from the terrorism list, alongside Ginbot 7, a pan-Ethiopianist organisation formed by those who turned to armed struggle after accusing the EPRDF of stealing 2005 polls, provided Abiy with a considerable boost in support across Oromia.
Unfortunately, their return also sparked an immediate wave of violence. Ginbot 7 supporters decorated Addis Ababa with their favoured green-yellow-red flag before their leaders’ arrival. When OLF supporters did the same with their own flag a week later, they were attacked.
The government then failed to disarm, demobilise, and reintegrate (DDR) the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), an armed wing of OLF, as per the agreement with the movement. Instead, it accused OLA of killing four Benishangul-Gumuz officials and, by September 2018, it installed military command posts in western and southern parts of Oromia to hunt OLA fighters and take their weapons by force.
Widespread violence broke out in Benishangul’s Kamashi Zone after the four Gumuz officials were killed by gunmen near the West Wellega border in Oromia. The killings came after allegations by the Benishangul People’s Liberation Movement, an opposition party, that OLF members had carried out multiple attacks against indigenous people in the region.
The federal government declared a state of emergency in the region, and it extended military operations against the OLA across western Oromia.
In April 2018, as a result of clashes between Guji Oromos and Gedeo people of the Southern Nations Nationalities and People Region (SNNP) in Gedeo Zone, the government increased troop deployments in southern Oromia.
In January 2019, political figures and elders, including Jawar Mohammed and members of the Abbaa Gadaas, tried to mediate between the government and OLF to renegotiate a DDR agreement with the OLA. That effort failed and, in April 2019, the OLA announced that it had established its own High Command.
Nominally demonstrating its own commitment to DDR, the OLF publicly disassociated itself with the OLA in May 2019. It formally confined itself to peaceful politics, while the OLA continued its armed resistance.
This year, on 27 April, OLA proposed an eight-point plan requesting an immediate ceasefire and an independent investigation into human rights abuses in order to find a peaceful resolution and resolve political and economic instability in Oromia. It declared its readiness to cooperate with all stakeholders wanting to bring an end to conflicts in Ethiopia.
The federal government’s response four days later was to declare OLA a terrorist organization. It used the term OLF-Shene to refer to the group—a term that heavily implies association with the OLF.
Although the government has rarely acknowledged the war being waged in Oromia between its forces and the OLA, both sides have reported victories in battles.
In early June, the Oromia police commission reported killing 95 members of “OLF-Shene” in Guji and Borena zones. The government accused the Oromo rebels of killing a total of 463 people in Oromia since the beginning of 2020, including 112 police officers, 57 militia members, and 18 government leaders; it also accused them of injuring 76 police officers, 36 militia members, and two officials.
The authorities have also blamed OLA for massacres against Amhara civilians in Oromia, including in eastern and western Wellega in western Oromia. OLA denied responsibility for the attacks, and activists often allege that the rebel group is being framed by the authorities. Over the last three years, OLA has expanded its activity and grown in popularity across Oromia and abroad.
In February this year, Fikadu Tessema, Head of Oromia-PP, described OLA’s ubiquity as such: “[Its members] are civilians during the day, they live among the people, they participate in our meetings, they gather information, and they take their actions at night.”
Representing his party’s position, and revealing how the government aims to deal with the OLA, Fikadu then stated: “You will never be able to catch all the fish of Pacific or Atlantic Oceans. If you want to completely get rid of all the fish, you will need to dry up the ocean.”
Such divisive rhetoric served to generate further support for OLA’s armed resistance. As a result, more and more Oromos are joining the rebel group as security and human rights protections in the region crumble, military crackdowns against civilians become routine, and the space for political freedom and party opposition tighten to a chokehold. For many in Oromia, the OLA is seen now as the best option for achieving self-determination.
*To be continued*
Ethiopia: The fate of Oromia under Abiy’s Prosperity Party - The Africa Report.com
Despite his focus on unity, Ethiopia’s PM Abiy failed to reconcile Ethiopian and Oromo political identities, and so failed to live up to his own promises.
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