Ethiopia's Tigray Conflict

Ryder

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Ethiopia reminds me of the Ottoman Empire and the Habsburg Empire.

Too many ethnic groups, tribes along with clans all competing each other for control.

Abiy Ahmed was the only few who was willing to unite the country but the Tigrayans who ruled the country for decades dont want to give up their power easily to the Armharas, Oromos, Somalis and Afaris.
 

Nilgiri

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Ethiopia reminds me of the Ottoman Empire and the Habsburg Empire.

Too many ethnic groups, tribes along with clans all competing each other for control.

Abiy Ahmed was the only few who was willing to unite the country but the Tigrayans who ruled the country for decades dont want to give up their power easily to the Armharas, Oromos, Somalis and Afaris.

It is best to have loose knit federation, each ethnic group has their own constitution (and legal frameworks) etc for their majority area...and the federal capital territory is meeting place only for matters of joint defence and foreign policy.

There is clearly not enough cohesive trust to do traditional "top down" approach with federal structure (just look at all the promises reneged each time by the federal govt to each group). Trust needs basic promises to be kept as first thing.

People need to see what they put in is what they get out as well...and some extra on top for the compromises they perceive.

A federally cohesive country in the end relies on sufficient trust (like say in India) especially when there is no majoritarian bulk to harness ethnically or another identity of enough strength.

Then with development + wealth permeating over time, you build up trust in another manner over generations....like how EU has done slowly post WW2 and post cold war.

Too many innocent people have suffered and been massacred in not just Ethiopia, but also Somalia and Eritrea (i.e Horn of Africa)....when all should have done bottom-up approach rather than over-centralisation (creating trust attrition inevitably).

The economic costs going to this armed warfare are also suffocating the situation on top.

The problem trust is very strong stuff, but it is also very hard to build in first place.
 

Ryder

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It is best to have loose knit federation, each ethnic group has their own constitution (and legal frameworks) etc for their majority area...and the federal capital territory is meeting place only for matters of joint defence and foreign policy.

There is clearly not enough cohesive trust to do traditional "top down" approach with federal structure (just look at all the promises reneged each time by the federal govt to each group). Trust needs basic promises to be kept as first thing.

People need to see what they put in is what they get out as well...and some extra on top for the compromises they perceive.

A federally cohesive country in the end relies on sufficient trust (like say in India) especially when there is no majoritarian bulk to harness ethnically or another identity of enough strength.

Then with development + wealth permeating over time, you build up trust in another manner over generations....like how EU has done slowly post WW2 and post cold war.

Too many innocent people have suffered and been massacred in not just Ethiopia, but also Somalia and Eritrea (i.e Horn of Africa)....when all should have done bottom-up approach rather than over-centralisation (creating trust attrition inevitably).

The economic costs going to this armed warfare are also suffocating the situation on top.

The problem trust is very strong stuff, but it is also very hard to build in first place.

Historical grievances run too deep i was friends at school with a few Oromos they are beefing with both Armharas and Tigarayans what I meant was eventhough my school did not have any Armharas or Tigarayans my Oromo friends did not like them especially Tigarayans. In Ethiopia itself you also have Somalis and Oromos clashing with each other.
 

Saithan

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They're locked in that state because of power struggle.

Kids read their own side, stories telling the differences rather than the good positive things.
 

Nilgiri

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Historical grievances run too deep i was friends at school with a few Oromos they are beefing with both Armharas and Tigarayans what I meant was eventhough my school did not have any Armharas or Tigarayans my Oromo friends did not like them especially Tigarayans. In Ethiopia itself you also have Somalis and Oromos clashing with each other.

I did not even know about tigray, oromo etc till this current conflict erupted last year.

I knew amharic because its a language (and semitic branch too when I was studying language groups worldwide some years prior...I believe most of the rest of languages in Ethiopia are cushitic and nilotic).

Very saddening to see Ethiopia in this situation, the Ethiopians here in Canada have formed a number of good businesses and active involvement in Canadian society overall. I have always enjoyed Ethiopian food close by to where I live.

Like many immigrant groups they show what the potential is if peace, security and organisation is afforded to any group of people....so that "can do" types among them can start forming good commerce and development.

But this potential is completely snuffed out by having such ethnic-based strife, suspicion and wars in the larger home country.

In cold war, somalia and ethiopia fought each other over "greater somalia" as well. Completely unncessary war to have that just made such things as drought and famine worse later on the regular people.

Human psyche favouring war and conflict (when it gets some bearing of power/influence) over providing staples + basics (and leave larger questions on country borders etc for a better fed + wiser future generation) is very disturbing thing to see over history.
 

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US envoy to visit UAE, Turkey, Egypt to discuss Ethiopia conflict​

BY DAILY SABAH WITH AA​

ISTANBUL DEC 09, 2021 - 9:16 AM GMT+3

Soldiers of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) walk along the road toward the frontline in Gashena, Ethiopia, Dec. 6, 2021. (AFP Photo)
Soldiers of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) walk along the road toward the frontline in Gashena, Ethiopia, Dec. 6, 2021. (AFP Photo)


The United States Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman is scheduled to visit the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey and Egypt beginning Thursday to discuss the Ethiopian conflict, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Wednesday.

Speaking at a press conference, Price said Feltman will discuss with his counterparts "what it is that the international community seeks when it comes to Ethiopia, and that is chiefly a negotiated resolution to the conflict because we know that the conflict threatens the peace and security in the Horn of Africa."

He reiterated that there is no military solution to the conflict in Ethiopia.

Feltman is leaving to pursue support for diplomacy as the first and the only option to achieve a cessation of hostilities, Price added.

In its 13th month, the armed conflict between the government forces and fighters from the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has claimed thousands of lives and left many others facing famine-like conditions as affected areas are cutoff from international aid.

An estimated tens of thousands of people have been killed in the war between Ethiopian and allied forces and fighters from the country’s northern Tigray region, who long dominated the national government. The U.S. and others have warned that Africa’s second-most populous country could fracture and destabilize the Horn of Africa.

Ethiopia’s Nobel Peace Prize-winning Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said he will lead his country’s army “from the battlefront” beginning Tuesday.

In response, the spokesperson for the Tigray forces Getachew Reda tweeted that “our forces won't relent on their inexorable advance toward bringing (Ahmed’s) chokehold on our people to an end.” The Tigray forces say they are pressuring Ethiopia's government to lift the monthslong blockade of the Tigray region of some 6 million people, but they also want Ahmed out of power.

Envoys from the African Union and the U.S. have continued diplomatic efforts in pursuit of a cease-fire to the fighting and talks without preconditions on a political solution.

In one year, Ahmed’s government has gone from describing the Tigray conflict as a “law enforcement operation” to an “existential war." With Ethiopia's military reportedly weakened in recent months and with its retreat from Tigray in June, ethnic-based regional forces have been stepping up and Abiy's government has called on all able citizens to join the fight.

Fears of a rebel advance on the capital have prompted several countries, including the U.S. and the United Kingdom, to pull out nonessential diplomatic staff.
These countries are also urging their citizens to leave Ethiopia while commercial flights are still available.

 

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Tigray forces summarily executed civilians - HRW​

Amhara Fano militia fighters walk in the ransacked terminal at the Lalibela airport in Lalibela, on December 7, 2021.

Government and allied troops have recently reclaimed towns and cities in the Afar and Amhara regionsImage caption: Government and allied troops have recently reclaimed towns and cities in the Afar and Amhara regions

The Human Rights Watch says Tigrayan forces summarily executed dozens of civilians in “apparent war crimes” in two towns they controlled in Ethiopia’s Amhara region.

The executions occurred between 31 August and 9 September this year, it says in a new report.

Witnesses described to the rights body seeing Tigrayan fighters in Chenna and Kobo villages summarily execute a total of 49 civilians in separate incidents.

“Tigrayan forces showed brutal disregard for human life and the laws of war by executing people in their custody,” said Lama Fakih, HRW’s crisis and conflict director.

“Tigrayan forces apparent war crimes in Chenna and Kobo spotlight the urgent need for all warring parties in Ethiopia to prioritise the protection of civilians,” she added.

The Tigray forces have not responded to the accusations.

The HRW has called on the UN to establish an international inquiry into war crimes - and probe abuses by all parties in the Tigray conflict.

Government troops have recently reclaimed towns and cities in the Afar and Amhara regions, previously held by the Tigray fighters.

The year-long conflict in Ethiopia has created a huge humanitarian crisis with thousands killed and at least eight million people in urgent need of assistance.

 

Anastasius

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While I do think than an Ethiopian government victory is, from a utilitarian standpoint, the better option overall, it depends on Abiy Ahmed extending an olive branch to the Tigrayans afterwards. While I can partially understand where the ethnic tension comes from after years of Tigrayan dominance, the new government really went overboard in booting them out of all sectors of power.
 

Saithan

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This is due to the fact that the EFA controlled the main supply lines for the battlefront of Tigrayan forces. If the EFA dont do something stupid, they should be able to push back the rebels back to tigray region
The tweet thread points out that UCAV has once again demonstrated how an entire battlefront can be changed.
 
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