Ethiopia's Tigray Conflict

Ryder

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The Latest Situation in the Region.

TPLF has advanced quite a lot against the ENDF.

View attachment 26735

Tigray's Population is only 7 Million. (110 Million Ethiopians)

> This shows how important a experienced Army is. The Situation is everything but in favor of the Government and it loyal Forces, who are btw calling for the youth to take up Arms against the TPLF


View attachment 26736
Recruits to join Ethiopia's Defense Force gather during the farewell ceremony at the Meskel Square in Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia July 27, 2021. REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri

> They are sending Recruits to the frontlines against Insurgents. That's horrendous.

This explains why Turkey had not been that close with Ethiopia.

Ethiopia is too vulernable of a country to be close with.
 

Stuka

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This explains why Turkey had not been that close with Ethiopia.

Ethiopia is too vulernable of a country to be close with.

I think most Countries in that Region are. Inexperienced and Inefficient.
Fighting an army is easy with bigger manpower, which was apparent in the beginning of the conflict but after it turned in to guerrilla warfare the Ethiopian Army is backtracking. Perhaps reminiscent of most Armies who encountered that kind of warfare for the first time.

> That's why they asked the Russians for Help

 

Ryder

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I think most Countries in that Region are. Inexperienced and Inefficient.
Fighting an army is easy with bigger manpower, which was apparent in the beginning of the conflict but after it turned in to guerrilla warfare the Ethiopian Army is backtracking. Perhaps reminiscent of most Armies who encountered that kind of warfare for the first time.

> That's why they asked the Russians for Help


The thing is we cant use ethiopia against egypt.

Ethiopia is just weak but since the Egyptian army we are talking about the Egyptians would still lose to them 🤣

Is it possible for Tigray forces to reach the capital?
 

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Fun fact is during the Ogaden War the Ethiopians nearly got annilated by the Somalis until the Soviets intervened.
 

Stuka

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The thing is we cant use ethiopia against egypt.

Ethiopia is just weak but since the Egyptian army we are talking about the Egyptians would still lose to them 🤣

Is it possible for Tigray forces to reach the capital?

No. I think in order to Reach the Capital and Hold it they would need to have sizeable population but they are already spread out with 7 Million against 100 Million.

> Even more important the Tigrayans were once ruling the Country with their little Population but their Rule was brutal, so now most other Ethnicities despise them and would Rebel against a Tigray-led Ethiopia.




Here is the backstory from Vox.

"The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a Marxist-Leninist party, had ruled the country for nearly three decades, having emerged victorious from a brutal civil war in 1991.

The party was a coalition representing four different regions or nationalities: the TPLF (made up of Tigrayans); the Amhara Democratic Party (representing the Amhara ethnic group); the Oromo Democratic Party (representing the Oromo ethnic group); and the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement, which represented a few ethnic groups.

A map in shades of blue shows the regions of Ethiopia.
A simplified administrative map of Ethiopia. Olga Turkas/Getty Images/iStockphoto
But the Tigrayan wing of the party dominated.


The Tigrayan-led government presided over rapid economic growth, but not all of it was equal, and many Ethiopians felt left behind. In 2015 and 2016, after decades in power, the government faced popular protests over human rights abuses, corruption, and inequality.
Some, including members of the Amhara and Oromo ethnic groups, were particularly angry about the TPLF’s control of the most important positions in politics and the military, despite representing just 6 percent of the country’s population.

In 2018, Ethiopia’s prime minister resigned, and other members of the ruling EPRDF coalition united against the Tigrayan wing. They elected Abiy Ahmed, a relative newcomer from the Oromo, as the leader."

 

Stuka

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Fun fact is during the Ogaden War the Ethiopians nearly got annilated by the Somalis until the Soviets intervened.

Exactly.
They were also ruled by the Tigray People for 30 Years even though they were only 5% of the Population and now they are losing and asking the Russians for help again.
I Guess history repeats itself.
 

Stuka

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This is mindboggling !

TDF is pressuring Ethiopian National Army even further.

The Capital isn't that far off anymore while the gains are going far beyond the Tigray Region lines.
To think that the President declared Victory around 28th November 2020, and now this.

1628210081959.png

1628210190351.png


But things are getting interesting as a Picture surfaced with a claimed UAV from the Ethiopian Army.
Somebody did a rough 3D Model of it and here it is.

1628210313205.png


The Claim is Vestel Karayel.

1628210404375.png


(C)
EthiopiaMAP
WorldofAlert
 

Ryder

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African Armies are even worse than Arab Armies.

I always said this before Western style armies aka NATO are the best in the class. You have guys like Russia, China, India and Pakistan which im not discounting their armies are pretty good.
 

Ryder

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Turkish drones cant over turn this mess.

If people want to use Turkish drones effectively it needs to be combined with a combined arms approach. You dont just grab a drone and strike then come back.

Saudis have done the same mistake against the houthis by striking rather than combining it with conventional methods. They got to constantly hit him while backing the forces that are advancing.

Ethiopia needs a miracle right now. That explains why we are not close with them they are too fragile. No to say Somalia is not a fragile state. Somalia will pay off more than Ethiopia.

Ethiopia can no way counter Egypt but Turkey is still willing to support them against Egypt but not against Sudan.

Turkish drones are also effective with electronic warfare capabilities something which Ethiopia can never understand or use due to them being trained the old ways of fighting. It will take lots of reforms to make them a proper fighting army to understand new methods.
 

Saithan

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This is mindboggling !

TDF is pressuring Ethiopian National Army even further.

The Capital isn't that far off anymore while the gains are going far beyond the Tigray Region lines.
To think that the President declared Victory around 28th November 2020, and now this.

View attachment 27330
View attachment 27331

But things are getting interesting as a Picture surfaced with a claimed UAV from the Ethiopian Army.
Somebody did a rough 3D Model of it and here it is.

View attachment 27332

The Claim is Vestel Karayel.

View attachment 27333

(C)
EthiopiaMAP
WorldofAlert
I believe that TDF will have to stop. If they continue to move further south it might result in all of Ethiopia uniting against them and many more actors entering the fray. After all I think people still remember being ruled by them.

But as I mentioned earlier it'll result in a new country being born Tigray and with them being landlocked it'll be another small country. But they will have to withdraw back to their borders.

1628233518798.png


Light green is Tigray region.
 
Last edited:

Saithan

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Tigray rebels overrun Ethiopia's UNESCO heritage site Lalibela​

BY FRENCH PRESS AGENCY - AFP​

ADDIS ABABA AFRICA
AUG 06, 2021 8:45 AM GMT+3
Aerial view of the monolithic rock-cut Church of Saint George, also known as Bete Giyorgis, in Lalibela, Amhara Region, Ethiopia, Oct. 30, 2018. (Getty Images)
Aerial view of the monolithic rock-cut Church of Saint George, also known as Bete Giyorgis, in Lalibela, Amhara Region, Ethiopia, Oct. 30, 2018. (Getty Images)



Lalibela, a UNESCO World Heritage Site famous for its 12th-century rock-hewn churches in Ethiopia's Amhara region, was taken over by the rebels from the neighboring Tigray region, residents said Thursday.

The development came as a senior Amhara official told Agence France-Presse (AFP) that the rebels, known as the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), were pushing "deep" into Amhara territory and hinted at possible retaliation.

"I believe now, enough is enough. Because the TPLF is no more in Tigray. TPLF is moving deep into Amhara territories," said Amhara Deputy President Fanta Mandefro.

"We need to defend our people," he added.
The TPLF's weekslong push beyond Tigray has drawn criticism from world leaders and, according to Ethiopian officials, displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians.

Tigray has been wracked by fighting since last November when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sent troops to topple the TPLF, the regional ruling party which dominated national politics before Abiy took office in 2018.

Abiy, winner of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, said the move came in response to TPLF attacks on army camps.
But while Abiy promised victory would be swift, the war took a stunning turn in June when pro-TPLF forces retook the Tigray capital Mekele and the Ethiopian army largely withdrew.

Since then the TPLF has pressed east into neighboring Afar and Amhara, where Lalibela is located.
Soldiers and militia fighters have mobilized en masse in parts of Amhara to head off the rebels' advance, but multiple residents of Lalibela told AFP Thursday that the town fell without a fight.

"They came in the afternoon, and there was not any fighting. There were no security forces around. The TPLF forces are in the town now," one resident said.
"The TPLF just arrived in the afternoon. They were dancing and playing in the square of the city," another resident said.

"Most of the people are leaving the town to the remote areas," a third resident said, adding that he was hiding in his home with his family.
The United States urged the rebels to protect the heritage site with State Department spokesperson Ned Price also renewing calls for an end to the violence.

General view of Biete Gabriel-Rufael church, in Lalibela, Amhara Region, Ethiopia, Oct. 30, 2018. (Getty Images)
Aerial view of Biete Gabriel-Rufael church, in Lalibela, Amhara Region, Ethiopia, Oct. 30, 2018. (Getty Images)

'Terrorist' group

The TPLF's push into the neighboring regions has elicited global criticism, with the U.N. additionally reiterating calls for all parties to end hostilities.
Billene Seyoum, Abiy's spokesperson, told a press conference Thursday that more than 300,000 people had been displaced by recent fighting in Amhara and Afar.
Abiy's government has long accused foreign, especially Western leaders of overlooking crimes committed by the TPLF, and Billene said Thursday the TPLF "continues to play" some foreign observers "like a ventriloquist."

"I hope that the international community at this juncture will begin to wake up and see this organization for what it is: a terrorist organization that has hijacked the wellbeing of the people of Tigray as a means for its vicious goals," she said.

Officials did not immediately confirm Thursday that Lalibela was under TPLF control.

Fanta, the Amhara deputy president, said late Thursday he did not have information on the latest troop movements.
He said the region was struggling to accommodate more than 200,000 newly displaced civilians, some of whom have been forced to move multiple times to avoid combat.

"The situation is very sad, pregnant women are delivering in the rain. Babies are born in the rain showers," he said.

"It's beyond imagination to describe the current situation the displaced people are living in. It's the rainy season, the conflict is continuing, it's nonstop... The government is trying to defend and to stop TPLF but it is very difficult."

Regional spokesperson Gizachew Muluneh said some civilians had been killed, though he did not give a figure.

Heavy fighting

The Amhara town of Kobo, located roughly 100 kilometers (62 miles) east of Lalibela, is also under TPLF control after days of heavy fighting, an Amhara militia fighter told AFP this week.

"The war was accompanied by heavy artillery. We were armed with Kalashnikovs but they were launching mortars and using snipers," said the militia fighter, Eskindir Molla, who has since retreated south to the town of Woldiya.

"The TPLF opened fire on four fronts, and we fought for five days," he added.

"The people who are still there (in Kobo) are begging us to go back to save them. They are currently in a desperate condition."

The TPLF has said it does not intend to expand territorial gains beyond Tigray and is instead trying to "degrade" the soldiers and militia fighters deploying north.
However, it has vowed to "liberate" southern and western Tigray, parts of the region that were occupied by Amhara forces and officials in the early stages of the war.
World leaders, meanwhile, are urging the TPLF to commit to a cease-fire to facilitate aid delivery in Tigray, where the U.N. estimates fighting has pushed 400,000 people into famine-like conditions.

 

Saithan

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ETHIOPIA
Ethiopia on the brink of collapse as the Tigray conflict reaches a boiling point
The country’s erratic prime minister continues to fan the flames.
JUNE 30, 2021
Written by
Alex de Waal


After eight months of failing to treat the war, atrocities, and famine in the Tigray region of Ethiopia with the seriousness that they deserve, the United Nations Security Council is finally meeting on the crisis as early as this week. What has occasioned this is the military triumph of the Tigray Defense Force over the Ethiopian army.

For the resolution of the crisis — indeed, for the very survival of Ethiopia — the Security Council must deal directly with the TDF, which is the armed wing of the former ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF.

In two weeks of fierce fighting in June, the TDF defeated the Ethiopian army, with a decisiveness and speed that surprised even its own commanders. Driven by a fierce determination to free its land from the brutalities of occupation, led by veterans with surpassing military skill, and now armed with its enemies’ weapons, the TDF inflicted irreparable losses on the Ethiopian National Defense Force. The Tigrayan resistance captured or put out of action more than half of the Ethiopian army’s combat capabilities. The Eritrean army — the Ethiopians’ formidable ally — is withdrawing its units from the town it occupied in northern Tigray, and the regional militia of Amhara that overran western and southern Tigray may well flee rather than fight.

Focused on the human rights atrocities and the humanitarian disaster in Tigray, the media and diplomats entirely missed the story of the war itself. Everyone knew that the official line of the government in Addis Ababa — that a “law enforcement operation” needed just a bit more effort to round up the “remnants” of the former TPLF — wasn’t true. But few understood quite how strong the armed resistance was growing.

The number one reason why the guerrillas were so numerous, determined, disciplined, and bold was that their sisters and daughters had been raped, their farms and houses had been burned, and they themselves faced torture and murder if caught by the occupiers.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his coalition partner, Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki, seemed to believe they could grind the Tigrayan populace into submission by sheer cruelty. Rarely can a policy of war crimes — the Tigrayans call it genocide — have backfired so spectacularly. The Tigrayans had nothing to lose and fought for their lives.

Among those who took up arms were people who didn’t support the TPLF, but rallied to the fight for survival.

That was Abiy Ahmed’s first folly. He also over-estimated his military skills and believed in his own propaganda, apparently thinking that one more push would finish the job. After the TDF had annihilated five full army divisions on June 22, Abiy ordered three more divisions into the same trap. They met the same fate. In numerical terms, the Ethiopian army has lost about half its forces; in fighting capacity, it is destroyed.

After their remaining brigades fled from the Tigrayan capital Mekelle, the Ethiopian foreign ministry announced a ceasefire. This would be comic were it not so tragic. Ethiopia doesn’t have any troops in Tigray who can fire any shots. Most of the statement is instructing imaginary government departments to carry out activities in places where they have no presence. The announcement had a sinister ring because it said that the ceasefire was to allow farmers to cultivate — indicating that when the farming season is over in three months’ time, the ceasefire will lapse. Abiy’s ministers are on an arms-shopping spree and have said they intend to reoccupy Tigray at that time.

The TPLF rejected the ceasefire. Spokesman Getachew Reda said their forces would pursue their enemies and make sure they can’t pose any future threat to Tigray.
Nonetheless, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and African Union Chairperson Moussa Faki welcomed Abiy’s ceasefire statement. The most charitable explanation is that they still believe — contrary to all evidence — that Abiy can be persuaded to act rationally. Neither the U.N. nor the AU considered how their statements might be received by Tigrayans. That’s a dangerous oversight.

The United States also cautiously accepted the ceasefire statement as a possible first step. A State Department statement laid out what was needed to make it real, including humanitarian access, verified withdrawal of Eritrea, investigations of war crimes, and political dialogue. That’s a good list, and it should form the U.N. Security Council agenda.

A humanitarian ceasefire needs to specify how the government will permit aid operations to reach the TDF-controlled areas, which have a population of more than five million people who need emergency aid. The only way to get food and medicine to them — and seeds and tools to farmers — is along roads controlled by Ethiopia and Eritrea, or through Ethiopian airspace. Aid workers need Ethiopian government permits to go to Tigray. Just last week, Abiy gave an interview in which he accused aid agencies of conspiring to overthrow the government. The next day, three staff members with Doctors without Borders were murdered by unidentified assailants. For good measure, Abiy also denied there was hunger in Tigray. And on June 30 the prime minister held a press conference and made it clear that his goal was to encircle and starve Tigray.

The key element in the withdrawal of Eritrean and Amhara forces is that it should be verified. That means international observers on the ground. Given that Reda’s threat to counter-attack across the border is real, it also means a guarantee on the security of the border, to protect both sides.

Also key is an explicit ban on hostile military flights. Last week a market town was bombed, killing scores. If that happens again, the TDF would likely retaliate.
A ceasefire should include third-party monitoring and a mechanism for reporting and investigating complaints. Another issue is prisoners of war — the TDF has at least 10,000, while the federal government detained more than 12,000 Tigrayan officers at the outbreak of the war.

Most important, a ceasefire should be a step towards political negotiations aiming for peace. Often, a ceasefire agreement includes a commitment to ending hostile rhetoric. That isn’t happening. The Ethiopian statement indicates the opposite intent. It refers to the Tigrayan political leaders as “the criminal clique.” Reda routinely describes the government as “fascist.”

Popular sentiment in Tigray favors secession: people argue that if Ethiopia doesn’t want them, then they should set up their own state. Abiy’s hostile rhetoric, and efforts to impose a blockade on essential aid, might well push the TPLF to declare independence.

Most observers believe that if Tigray tries to secede then Ethiopia will disintegrate, following the path of Yugoslavia towards multiple ethnic wars. The Tigrayan leadership has said that it does not want to be the one that sets this process in train. But Abiy’s bellicosity might just make that decision inescapable.

The international community doesn’t have much leverage with the Tigrayans. It hasn’t given them any material assistance. It has hardly even spoken to them — until today, diplomats rely on Tigrayan leaders calling out on unsecure satellite phones, and there’s no way of sending documents. That needs to be remedied at once.
The United Nations should send a high-level envoy to Mekelle to meet with the Tigrayan leadership and listen to their demands. The world needs to do business with the TPLF/TDF. Not just Tigray but Ethiopia depends on them.

 

CEZAYIRLI

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African Armies are even worse than Arab Armies.

I always said this before Western style armies aka NATO are the best in the class. You have guys like Russia, China, India and Pakistan which im not discounting their armies are pretty good.
"African Armies are even worse than Arab Armies" : I think Arab armies are the lousiest, because with all the billions in armaments they purchase yearly, they can't kill a bird (see their defeat against the Houthis). In a war situation, a soldier must have a combat spirit and willingness to die for his country. Armament alone won't be enough.
 

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"African Armies are even worse than Arab Armies" : I think Arab armies are the lousiest, because with all the billions in armaments they purchase yearly, they can't kill a bird (see their defeat against the Houthis). In a war situation, a soldier must have a combat spirit and willingness to die for his country. Armament alone won't be enough.

Arab armies are all about killing their own people.

Algeria, Tunisia and Morroco seem to have an impressive army compared to the Levant and the gulf.

Egypt is the most useless one I remember Egyptians bragging about they can beat Turkey and Algeria LOL
 

CEZAYIRLI

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Arab armies are all about killing their own people.

Algeria, Tunisia and Morroco seem to have an impressive army compared to the Levant and the gulf.

Egypt is the most useless one I remember Egyptians bragging about they can beat Turkey and Algeria LOL
MENA Global Firepower ranking:
Turkey 11 Egypt 13 Saudi 17 Algeria 27 UAE 36 Morocco 53

MENA Military Spending (Billions of Dollars)
Saudi 57 UAE 25 Turkey 17 Algeria 13 Egypt 10 Morocco 6

The Global Firepower ranking of Saudi Arabia and UAE is laughable. Saudi Arabia and the UAE at some time spent close to 100 Billion dollars of military hardware combined, yet no war victories to show for, only defeats.

As for Algeria, we have the 10th largest country in the World, our military conviction is the protection of our vast borders. Algerian people participated in many wars, including Israel73 and Israel67, France (54 to 62), Indochina, WW2 and WW1, and the great Ottoman battles in the Mediterranean basin.
 

Ecderha

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MENA Global Firepower ranking:
Turkey 11 Egypt 13 Saudi 17 Algeria 27 UAE 36 Morocco 53

MENA Military Spending (Billions of Dollars)
Saudi 57 UAE 25 Turkey 17 Algeria 13 Egypt 10 Morocco 6

The Global Firepower ranking of Saudi Arabia and UAE is laughable. Saudi Arabia and the UAE at some time spent close to 100 Billion dollars of military hardware combined, yet no war victories to show for, only defeats.

As for Algeria, we have the 10th largest country in the World, our military conviction is the protection of our vast borders. Algerian people participated in many wars, including Israel73 and Israel67, France (54 to 62), Indochina, WW2 and WW1, and the great Ottoman battles in the Mediterranean basin.

saudi and uae pay for their "guarantor" (usa,uk,france etc.) for safety, protection in order to exist.
If you study history there are fact that current 1/3 saudi land is actually Yemens ones. The same is for uae where big chunk is Umman.
Other big issue is that families of saudi and uae are are not from the branch which should be the ruler of these terrritories.

So west are there as protector of unnatural ruler families and also to have "legs" on region. But west want money and the easy way to get that money as they passed as military expenses. It is a black hole and more more money they will pay because there is a FACT "west are known as Greedy and trouble makers as same time. Status que"

When oil runs out and then both families will escape because there will NO money to pay the protcetion.
About ppl that live there it will be nightmare and for thier generations
 

Ryder

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saudi and uae pay for their "guarantor" (usa,uk,france etc.) for safety, protection in order to exist.
If you study history there are fact that current 1/3 saudi land is actually Yemens ones. The same is for uae where big chunk is Umman.
Other big issue is that families of saudi and uae are are not from the branch which should be the ruler of these terrritories.

So west are there as protector of unnatural ruler families and also to have "legs" on region. But west want money and the easy way to get that money as they passed as military expenses. It is a black hole and more more money they will pay because there is a FACT "west are known as Greedy and trouble makers as same time. Status que"

When oil runs out and then both families will escape because there will NO money to pay the protcetion.
About ppl that live there it will be nightmare and for thier generations

Yemen and Oman have lots of history that explains why Saudis and Emiratis cant be like them.

As they lack legitmacy.

Saudis are trying to push a new history by claiming the Prophet was a Saudi and how the 3 caliphates were Saudis.

Thing is Prophet Muhammed was born in what is now modern day Saudi Arabia. At his time Saudi arabia never existed. Also his from the Quraish tribe not from the Saudi tribe or Clan.

Emiratis were usually overshadowed by their neighbours like Oman, Bahrain and Qatar. Emiratis were just tribes living in villages or nomads. They stayed irrelevant for centuries until the oil popped up.
 

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Ethiopian PM Urges ‘Eligible Citizens’ to Join Army and Fight Tigray Forces​


1628630518829.png

Youth joining the Ethiopian National Defense Force are escorted to Meskel Square in the capital Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on July 27, 2021. (AP Photo/File)

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has urged eligible citizens on Tuesday to join the military and end its conflict with rebels in the Tigray region “once and for all.”

 

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