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JOYDEEPGHOSH

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I'm using NGAD as a catch all term for the 6th gen ecosystem that the US has by then for selling/working with deemed close enough allies at that point. NGAD itself will likely be in a tier like F-22 and likely not exportable, just like I find it unlikely that India will be eager enough to fork out larger strategic independence for this anyway, not to mention the distance of time involved.

It is just hypotheticals along an already unlikely arc of some YF-23 planform side project proposal. As to side projects US and India do end up doing in this longer duration of time, that all remains to be seen and depends on how various geopolitical scenarios go.
got any ther option as i said begars cant be choosers
 

Nilgiri

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may be but facts are facts which is AMCA is still on paper whie yf23 is live example as for dynamics of deal do note beggars cant be choosers, if we cant go to russia it is bcoz we have ben forced to trade much of our strategic independence with usa for lemoa and other such deals alongside 123. in the write up i clearly said yf23 design schematics and whatever learning we can make in AMCA can be put together for developing a 6th gen jet by 2050 right on schedule to replace su30mki n hopefully by 2065 we start work on 7th gen jet without any outside help, and yes yf23 design is still relevant but was more expensive than f22 then today with advancement in tech we can bring down cost significantly. may be overach or overreach but fact is that logic says india is lagging behind so best to use any of the buy borrow steal to be at par. n yes india refused to join tempest so to expect it to join NGAD or even MiG 41 is bit too much

I get where you are coming from. You want to get ahead of the curve somehow....but there is a long chain of things India needs to fix in its defence establishment before a YF-23 insertion (or equivalent) will make a relevant impact in my view. I mean its not like AMCA is a completely influence-free approach itself, it has lot of convergent evolution with 5th gen broadly in the world....yet look at the pace of the program. Why would a YF-23 not face the same thing?

If in this YF-23 arc there is high hand-holding + "ToT" past this from the US to make things more expedient, its not too different from acquiring F-35 directly, which you yourself already sense is a strategic problem.

AMCA is the only way to work these things out in the chain to some better degree first as strategic-autarkic as possible...to make them faster and experienced for the next program(s).

Guess we will see what happens.
 

JOYDEEPGHOSH

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I get where you are coming from. You want to get ahead of the curve somehow....but there is a long chain of things India needs to fix in its defence establishment before a YF-23 insertion (or equivalent) will make a relevant impact in my view. I mean its not like AMCA is a completely influence-free approach itself, it has lot of convergent evolution with 5th gen broadly in the world....yet look at the pace of the program. Why would a YF-23 not face the same thing?

If in this YF-23 arc there is high hand-holding + "ToT" past this from the US to make things more expedient, its not too different from acquiring F-35 directly, which you yourself already sense is a strategic problem.

AMCA is the only way to work these things out in the chain to some better degree first as strategic-autarkic as possible...to make them faster and experienced for the next program(s).

Guess we will see what happens.
agreed AMCA not coming before 2040 and Su30 mki to be retired after 2050 so what after that which jet will replace it any idea??
 

JOYDEEPGHOSH

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I get where you are coming from. You want to get ahead of the curve somehow....but there is a long chain of things India needs to fix in its defence establishment before a YF-23 insertion (or equivalent) will make a relevant impact in my view. I mean its not like AMCA is a completely influence-free approach itself, it has lot of convergent evolution with 5th gen broadly in the world....yet look at the pace of the program. Why would a YF-23 not face the same thing?

If in this YF-23 arc there is high hand-holding + "ToT" past this from the US to make things more expedient, its not too different from acquiring F-35 directly, which you yourself already sense is a strategic problem.

AMCA is the only way to work these things out in the chain to some better degree first as strategic-autarkic as possible...to make them faster and experienced for the next program(s).

Guess we will see what happens.
I get where you are coming from. ??? what does that mean??
 

Nilgiri

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agreed AMCA not coming before 2040 and Su30 mki to be retired after 2050 so what after that which jet will replace it any idea??
MKI acquisitions were from 2002 - 2021. With extension from 25 year to 35 year lifetime (being looked into right now). The retirements will be 2037 - 2056....though I doubt they will be used past 2050.

The AMCA and AMCA mk2 (whatever that is at that point) will be likeliest contenders for their replacement. This is with induction start of AMCA starting in 2035.

As to what will address the gap between 2025 - 2035 or if the gap will be addressed at all w.r.t 5th gen spearhead for rest of AF body, your guess is good as mine. Defence block people are grey and fickle at best on these matters. Maybe with your blog you get more Indians to join this forum to discuss the options.

I get where you are coming from. ??? what does that mean??
Just another way of saying I understand where your argument basis comes from. I share some of it, disagree with other parts of it.
 

Nilgiri

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New Delhi: Brazilian aviation major Embraer is in talks with state-run Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and private companies as it firms up a pitch to respond to Indian Air Force’s requirement for 40-80 Medium Transport Aircraft (MTA) that will eventually replace AN32s and even IL76s.
“Our C-390 Millennium is the perfect aircraft to meet India’s requirements. We are not looking at just selling the aircraft but also setting up an assembly line in India as well a MRO (Maintenance Repair and Overhaul) besides a training centre,” Joao Bosco Costa Junior, President and CEO of Embraer Defense and Security, told a select group of reporters Monday.


On a visit to India to meet with senior IAF officers, Bosco added, “We are in talks with state-run HAL and private companies as we look at who our partner in India can be.”

The Embraer is interested in the MTA programme for which it along with two other companies — Lockheed Martin of the US and European major Airbus — have responded to a Request for Information (RFI) issued by the IAF in December last year.

As per the RFI, the IAF is interested in a medium transport aircraft having a load carrying capacity of 18-27 tonnes. The IAF had sought a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost of aircraft and associated equipment’ for a batch of 40, 60, and 80 aircraft.
In its RFI, the IAF asked companies to send in their information regarding the scope of technology transfer, ways to enhance indigenisation, capability to ensure indigenous manufacture of systems, subsystems, components and spares and for making India a regional or global hub for MRO.
The MTA was originally meant to be a joint Indo-Russia project, but New Delhi pulled out a few years back.
The two countries had signed a pact for the co-development of the aircraft in 2012 under which India would have bought 45 aircraft while Russia around 100. However, the deal was scrapped in 2016 after both countries failed to come to agreement with regard to engine and design of the aircraft.

“In practice, not all projects yield results. During the execution of the project, which lasted five years, we did not manage to find such a solution that would be beneficial for the two countries,” then Russian Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov had told Russian media in 2016.

Which aircraft are in MTA contention


Lockheed Martin has pitched in C-130, 12 of which are already in service with the IAF. Having a capacity of 20 tonnes, the aircraft has been earmarked for special operations and has achieved a record landing at nearly 16,700 ft in Daulat Beg Oldie in Eastern Ladakh.

The Airbus has pitched A-400M which has a capacity of 36 tonnes, much more than what the IAF has sought for.

“The competition has very good planes, but the C-390 has the latest technology, multi-mission capability, operational flexibility and low operating costs — all of which gives it an advantage over the competition. The C-390 will bring more value to the IAF,” Costa said.

While Lockheed and Airbus with its C-295 aircraft, the first of which will be delivered next month, have a deeper defence history with India, Embraer has relatively less footprints in the country.

The Brazilian aerospace company has so far supplied eight jets to India for VVIP travel, and for use as airborne early warning and control aircraft. The rest are all in civil space.

Costa said that Embraer is weighing all the options and will do whatever is necessary, including transfer of technology, to win the deal. “The Brazilian government is fully on board this programme and will extend everything needed,” he said.

The Embraer boss underlined that the company is not just looking at manufacturing the aircraft in India for the IAF, but also for the region as a whole.

Giving a break up, he said there is a potential market for about 300 planes in Asia and the Middle East, a demand that can be catered from the Indian manufacturing plant of Embraer.

(Edited by Tony Rai)
 

JOYDEEPGHOSH

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MKI acquisitions were from 2002 - 2021. With extension from 25 year to 35 year lifetime (being looked into right now). The retirements will be 2037 - 2056....though I doubt they will be used past 2050.

The AMCA and AMCA mk2 (whatever that is at that point) will be likeliest contenders for their replacement. This is with induction start of AMCA starting in 2035.

As to what will address the gap between 2025 - 2035 or if the gap will be addressed at all w.r.t 5th gen spearhead for rest of AF body, your guess is good as mine. Defence block people are grey and fickle at best on these matters. Maybe with your blog you get more Indians to join this forum to discuss the options.


Just another way of saying I understand where your argument basis comes from. I share some of it, disagree with other parts of it.
problem is lca mk2/mwf isnt coming before 2035 or 38 if it is to be rolled out before 2035 a new production loine needs to created entirely for lca mk2 a near impossible act financially even hal has setup just 1 new production line for mk1a other 2 were earlier lca mk1 n su30mki (afaik there were 2 su30mki production lines) amca mk1 or 2 can never replace su30mki as they are medium, will number max 230 whereas su30mki a heavy totalling 260 + 12 just ordered + 50 more to be ordered once ukraine war is over, so amca cant do it by sheer number. also india unique situation means it will always need a light a medium and a heavy jet, already due to innate delay talks are going on to skip lca mk2 and leap frog to more amca mk1 n mk2 to save time n to augment numbers. also you may know that when the amca mk1 will come europe will roll out tempest 6th gen jet it is for this reason i said go for yf 23 design schematics today to replace su30 mki with a heavy 6th gen jet from 2050 onwards the experience gained will supposedly help india develop a 7th grn jet from 2065 onwards
 

Nilgiri

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@Gessler @Nilgiri did you guys watch it? this is really good.

Rafale's are great to have and all, but this stuff just reminds me of huge missed opportunities for Indian defence sector....given premium cost of Rafale, especially in the piecemeal adhoc fashion they are being acquired.

A better deal should have been worked out with France regarding production of Mirage 2000 from the late 90s, with the engine also included. France was willing to do something even after the nuclear tests.

We would have lot more fighters now at lower cost and decent arsenal of weaponry at their disposal....with synergy to harness with Tejas.

All the technical and bureaucratic time involved with MMRCA could have been used in all this instead.

The savings could have been used to bring the tejas mk2 and AMCA programs start and execute faster....along with powerplant development.

But its a small sideshow to missed opportunities regarding Indian economy (to fund all of this) in the same time period too I guess.
 

Afif

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Rafale's are great to have and all, but this stuff just reminds me of huge missed opportunities for Indian defence sector....given premium cost of Rafale, especially in the piecemeal adhoc fashion they are being acquired.

A better deal should have been worked out with France regarding production of Mirage 2000 from the late 90s, with the engine also included. France was willing to do something even after the nuclear tests.

We would have lot more fighters now at lower cost and decent arsenal of weaponry at their disposal....with synergy to harness with Tejas.

All the technical and bureaucratic time involved with MMRCA could have been used in all this instead.

The savings could have been used to bring the tejas mk2 and AMCA programs start and execute faster....along with powerplant development.

But its a small sideshow to missed opportunities regarding Indian economy (to fund all of this) in the same time period too I guess.

I wonder how much longer will it take for MRFA program to be realised.
Also, I read somewhere they may cut the numbers to 72 or something, and instead buy more Tejas. Do you think it would be a good idea?
 

Nilgiri

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I wonder how much longer will it take for MRFA program to be realised.
Also, I read somewhere they may cut the numbers to 72 or something, and instead buy more Tejas. Do you think it would be a good idea?

Yes I am all in favour of domestic over imports. The capabilites are sufficient (for backfill squadrons + arsenal while waiting for 5th gen tier). The capacities are what need to be invested in commensurate to the projection of 5T - 10T era for Indian economy coming up.

Doing spearhead stuff too much (for 4th gen, I can understand it for 5th gen) is not optimal, India should not elect to keep operating in this way. We are missing a good follow up to Parrikar unfortunately, so all the old habits of the defence block are seeping through again.
 

Afif

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IAF looking at procurement contracts worth over ₹2.5 lakh crore, says Air chief​

October 03, 2023 10:43 pm | Updated 10:45 pm IST - NEW DELHI

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The procurement will take the LCA-MK1A fleet strength to 180. IAF is looking at several contracts worth ₹2.5 lakh crore to ₹3 lakh crore in the next few years, said Air Chief Marshal V. R. Chaudhari​


The Indian Air Force (IAF) is looking at procuring 97 additional indigenous Light Combat Aircraft (LCA)-Mk1A fighter jets at an estimated cost of ₹1.15 lakh crore, Air Chief Marshal V. R. Chaudhari said on October 3.

The procurement will take the LCA-MK1A fleet strength to 180. The IAF is looking at several contracts worth ₹2.5 lakh crore to ₹3 lakh crore in the next few years, he said.

On the situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China, he said the operational plans of the IAF were dynamic and can change as per the developing situation. He said that in places where the IAF “cannot counter in terms of numbers”, it will do so through “better tactics”.


The IAF is making note of the build-up of resources and capabilities across the borders, he said on the Chinese build-up along the LAC.

“Our focus will remain to be dynamic at all times and not have a fixed mindset in terms of deployment of assets in particular areas. But we have very flexible and dynamic war plans which we keep revising every now and then based on the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) inputs that we get,” he said.

On Chinese deployment of radars near Mansarovar, he said the Air Force was looking at inducting long-range mountain radars to “see equally deep inside the adversary’s territory”.

Noting that China and Pakistan were transferring technology, he said Pakistan was manufacturing JF-17 fighter aircraft and also inducting the J-10. “We keep an eye on the developments between these two countries.”

In his opening remarks, the Air Chief Marshal said that owing to the volatile and uncertain geopolitical landscape in the region, the need to have a “strong and credible” military has become an “imperative”. The Indo-Pacific region is the new economic and strategic centre of gravity of the world and offers us both challenges and opportunities, he said, adding, “IAF, with its inherent capability to see the farthest, reach the fastest and hit the hardest, will be critical in mitigating these challenges and will remain a fulcrum in projecting India’s might in the region.”

Talking of the role of the IAF, the Air chief said the force had played an important role in all wars fought by India, undertaken “punitive air strikes” when called upon, extricated the Indian diaspora from conflict zones and provided succour and relief through Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) missions within and beyond the country’s borders.

The IAF carried out Operation Kaveri to evacuate Indian citizens from Sudan, where it flew 22 sorties (for 115 hours), extricated 2,100 persons and carried 58 tonnes of critical load. During Operation Dost to aid Türkiye and Syria, the IAF flew 28 sorties (for 188 hours) and carried 307 tonnes of load.





Note- That is why having constant threat to your National security and territorial integrity is a good thing. It forces you to develop your own defence industry at a scale that otherwise wouldn't have happened.

Bangladesh has no serious threat, even if our gdp and quality of life improves significantly in 15-20 years, I doubt we will have a meaningful defence industry.
 

Afif

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From 114 now it jumps to 200 Rafale?
 

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