I know, I look at the map believe me. Even if they lost territorial control doesn't put Israel in any better position, once IDF occupies the entirety of Gaza (and the West Bank) the question will arise: Where will the Palestinians go?
The immediate thought will of course be Sinai, Egypt. But the political ramifications will be huge because for one Al-Sisi doesn't accept that and even if the plan moves forward, that would mean free and plenty of manpower for ISIS-Sinai to capitalize. The first thing they'll do once their manpower is replenished is I believe to prepare for another 7th October style attack on the Israeli Population near Sinai. This is the way ISIS gains sympathy and legitimacy and they WILL DO IT.
The war will then merely turn into a continuation between Palestinians and Israel, but now under the command of ISIS-Sinai. In short, the war will never go, it merely changes hands the same way the Palestinian armed struggle baton transferred from the PLO to Hamas in the 90s.
1.The sabotage of the normalization plan between Saudi Arabia and Israel, believe me the Saudi, in particular, are hard pressed to justify any sort of normalization afterward, the longer the war goes on, and the longer the flood of images comes out of Gaza, the less willing the Muslims of Arabia to find their rulers as legitimate, and the less willing they are to accept the "Fatwa" of the cleric to justify the government (we know that clerics in the Middle East is an extension of the state).
2.To obstruct the imminent "opening up" of the Islamic nations/people to Israel. And this is important if not the utmost important. even if they lose. I'll give you a textbook example:
In 1979, Juhayman Al Otaybi the descendant of the "Ikhwan" military movements, foreseeing the liberalization of Saudi Arabia into a Westernized society,
decided to storm the Kaaba with 400 of his men, occupying it, declaring the Saudi government and clerics as illegitimate, and turning the Kaaba into a battleground. In the end he lose, captured and executed.
But he won, in the aftermath of Juhayman's assault on the Kaaba, the Westernization of Saudi Arabia came to a complete halt, not only did it come to a halt, the ensuing Government doubled down on enforcing puritanical Islam, and Juhayman's complaint about cinemas? It would have to wait for another 35 years for the Saudis to allow the first cinema to open in Saudi Arabia under King Salman. In short he won by losing everything.
The October 7th attack and the Israeli retaliation which as predicted will go after the innocent civilians will be saved in the collective memories of Arabs and Muslims, and we need it, because I (personally) want that Muslim's hate towards Israel not only need to be nurtured but it needs to be periodically expanded. And this is one way to do it. Do you think normal Muslims will accept "friendships" with israel after they saw videos of kids cut in half? Broadcasted to the world in full detail.
That "hate" must be maintained, until the reversal of fortune comes back to our side. And this is why again it is of the utmost importance for Hamas regardless of the outcome of the military matters to go ahead with the Assault.
I beg you to differ and reconsider, it took the US 2 weeks to expel the Taliban, and another 20 years is the time it took for the U.S to command ISAF, a military agglomeration of more than 50 countries to occupy, pin, corner, and bomb the Taliban into submission
ISAF was one of the largest coalitions in history and is NATO’s most challenging mission to date. At its height, the force was more than 130,000 strong, with troops from 51 NATO and partner nations.
Yet in 2021, the Taliban came back in full force in Kabul, had DefenceHub existed in 2001, I believe none of its members could foresee how a backward militant group that was expelled in 2 weeks from their capital and land, facing the largest military power on earth + its also formidable allies, could take back the seats of power 20 years later.
The same story also happens in Mali, where the French-led missions. once seemed formidable are now in tatters where local AQIM and ISIS-GS are now on the march everywhere in the Sahel. I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw a recent image of ISIS-GS convoys running around in motorbikes in broad daylight after supposedly getting pinned by France in the yesteryear.
Let's say Gaza is occupied, its people are swept into Sinai. Doesn't that mean more manpower for ISIS to attack Israel? Having ISIS in its South and Hezbollah on its North and these people will never live in peace, they will always live under the assumption that October 7th could come time and again. Also the less safe Egypt is, the harder for it to operate as a normal country, and generally, I want a less safe more militant Middle East because I see it as serving the long-term plan to annihilate the Zionists. In short, less safe Middle East, the better.
This is where we differ, your goal (and many here) is the preservation of the Palestinian state, and my goal is the destruction of Israel. That's why we differ on what is acceptable and what is not, what is painful and what's is a necessary pain.
Sometimes all it takes is a small spark of blood to give way to a much larger bloodbath that serves a larger political purpose.
If you look at the history of militancy in the Middle East and Africa, and tracing the thread back to where it started, it seems trivial. The deadly Boko haram and the ensuing Nigerian insurgency started because the Nigerian police shot some unknown clerics in Borno state, a backwater state in Nigeria.
Do you think there will be no repercussions after the Arabs/Muslims saw the image of entire people massacred in Gaza? Think again.
9/11
The most destructive and humiliating retreat of the U.S from the Middle East comes from this particular attack orchestrated by Bin Laden...after he saw the image of Lebanon bombed by Israel.
God knows it did not cross our minds to attack the towers but after the situation became unbearable and we witnessed the injustice and tyranny of the American-Israeli alliance against our people in Palestine and Lebanon,
As I watched the destroyed towers in Lebanon, it occurred to me punish the unjust the same way [and] to destroy towers in America so it could taste some of what we are tasting and to stop killing our children and women. (Bin Laden) (Source)
You might argue that post 9/11 destruction is disproportionately tilting towards Afghans, but if you look at the grand scheme of things, the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq in the aftermath of 9/11,Over those 20 years, the U.S essentially relinquished a significant portion of its capabilities as a major power.
Think about how many Arleigh Burke's, Zummwalts or F-22 raptors the U.S could procure had the Pentagon didn't shift priorities to small scale Middle East wars, how different it would look for the Ukrainian war effort had the U.S MIC didn't orient towards "Prada and Gucci" style procurement of artillery and weapons. And most importantly how differently the U.S military readiness is against neer peer state like China.
For pursuing vengeance post 9/11, the U.S achieves little but lost a lot.
The same with Israel now, for their pursue to punish Palestinians they have sealed the fate of their country and their childrens.
During the war in Afghanistan, the U.S flattened an entire village and all Taliban can celebrate is firing some mortars or planting IEDs hoping that an American will cross them. Who eventually won ?
As I said, the war in Gaza is an acceptable cost.
