Live Conflict Israel-Palestine War|Regional Escalations

[contricusc]

The Iranian response will most likely be symbolic, just like last time. They don’t want to inflict any serious damage to Israel, because this is exactly what Netanyahu is looking for, as a reason to escalate.

Haniyeh’s killing shows just how potent Israel is compared to Iran, and Iranian leaders will not want to put their lives on the line just to avange a Palestinian. They did almost nothing after their own Soleimani was killed, and they will do just another show in honor of Haniyeh.

At this point, it is obvious that Hezbollah and Iran are afraid of any escalation, while Netanyahu is looking for a pretext to escalate the war. Israel is aggressively targeting leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah tring to force an answer from Iran/Hezbollah, but that answer is just not coming.

Nethanyahu needs the war to continue and to be perceived as justified by the Israeli public, because when the war ends, his days in power end too. He wants a larger and more significant war. Iranians on the other hand want to mantain the status quo while saving face, because they have nothing to win from a war, and a lot to lose.

 

[Kartal1]

In the West Bank, hundreds of Jewish invaders carried out organized attacks in the city of Nablus and set fire to many Palestinian houses.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1819394359474704420

 

[Kartal1]

Israel was able to assassinate 2 more members of Hamas political bureau and 3 military commanders in a tunnel in Gaza City, Arab media reports claim.

— Rawhi Mushtaha: Described as the de facto prime minister of Gaza and in charge of Hamas' financial affairs. Mushtaha was described as very close to Yahya Sinwar, Hamas leader in Gaza. The one in the photo.

— Sameh al-Siraj: A member of the Hamas politburo since 2021, responsible for internal security in Gaza.

Military Commanders (from the Izz a-Din al-Qassam Brigades):

— Abdul Hadi Siam (intelligence chief in Gaza division)
— Sami Odeh (leader in the general security apparatus)
— Muhammad Hadid (leader of the rocket unit in Gaza division)

— Initial rescue attempts by Hamas fighters were unsuccessful due to toxic fumes from Israeli missiles.

Source: London-based Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, which quoted Hamas sources.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1819392814129525192

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1819380809100341684

 

[Afif]

The Iranian response will most likely be symbolic, just like last time. They don’t want to inflict any serious damage to Israel, because this is exactly what Netanyahu is looking for, as a reason to escalate.

Haniyeh’s killing shows just how potent Israel is compared to Iran, and Iranian leaders will not want to put their lives on the line just to avange a Palestinian. They did almost nothing after their own Soleimani was killed, and they will do just another show in honor of Haniyeh.

At this point, it is obvious that Hezbollah and Iran are afraid of any escalation, while Netanyahu is looking for a pretext to escalate the war. Israel is aggressively targeting leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah tring to force an answer from Iran/Hezbollah, but that answer is just not coming.

Nethanyahu needs the war to continue and to be perceived as justified by the Israeli public, because when the war ends, his days in power end too. He wants a larger and more significant war. Iranians on the other hand want to mantain the status quo while saving face, because they have nothing to win from a war, and a lot to lose.

Israel won't assassinate Iranian top political leaders (like president or foreign minister) even if there is an escalation. No one has done anything like for a longtime. Of course Iranians have shown incompetence. They can't protect their leaders. Even US couldn't if Israel really wanted to assassinate the POTUS. But the reason no one does that, is because you can't protect your leaders either against decent sized state actors once you go down that rabit hole. People think world leaders are safe because of crazy secret service stuff. It's actually MAD that ensure their safety.

 

[contricusc]

Israel won't assassinate Iranian top political leaders (like president or foreign minister) even if there is an escalation. No one has done anything like for a longtime. Of course Iranians have shown incompetence. They can't protect their leaders. Even US couldn't if Israel really wanted to assassinate the POTUS. But the reason no one does that, is because you can't protect your leaders either against decent sized state actors once you go down that rabit hole. People think world leaders are safe because of crazy secret service stuff. It's actually MAD that ensure their safety.

By assasinating leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel is sending a strong message to Iran. It shows that Israel is willing to assasinate leaders if it has to, unlike other countries who are fearful to cross this line.

Netanyahu is power hungry, and for him losing power is the equivalent of losing his life, so he is not afraid o escalate at any level if he has no alternative when it comes to staying in power.

Israel has always been bolder in crossing red lines than other countries, and this is why everyone in the region fears them.

The combination of a highly advanced military backed by the US and a psychopathic leader like Netanyahu makes Israel extremely unpredictable and dangerous. This is why all other regional leaders will only bark but will not bite.

 

[Afif]

By assasinating leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel is sending a strong message to Iran. It shows that Israel is willing to assasinate leaders if it has to, unlike other countries who are fearful to cross this line.

Netanyahu is power hungry, and for him losing power is the equivalent of losing his life, so he is not afraid o escalate at any level if he has no alternative when it comes to staying in power.

Israel has always been bolder in crossing red lines than other countries, and this is why everyone in the region fears them.

The combination of a highly advanced military backed by the US and a psychopathic leader like Netanyahu makes Israel extremely unpredictable and dangerous. This is why all other regional leaders will only bark but will not bite.

Killing leaders of non state entities is quite different than killing a state actor's leadership. The problem is if Israel escalate and does that, Netanyahu won't be around much longer as he will be killed also sooner or later.

 

[Gary]

Netanyahu as seen from an Iranian agent trailing him

 

[Afif]

Netanyahu as seen from an Iranian agent trailing him

Is it verified though? Not taken by some journo?

 

[Gary]

Is it verified though? Not taken by some journo?

Dunno

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1819091146498625651

 

[contricusc]

Killing leaders of non state entities is quite different than killing a state actor's leadership. The problem is if Israel escalate and does that, Netanyahu won't be around much longer as he will be killed also sooner or later.

Of course it is a lower level escalation, but Israel is showing that it is willing to raise the stakes if necessary, and this will make other leaders show restraint.

So far, the only entity that dared to hit Israel hard was Hamas on October 7, and many of their leaders are already dead. The question is, why would others want to follow thier example when doing this means you put your own life at stake.

My opinion is that all regional leaders will continue to bark to save face, while Israel will continue its murder campaign unabated in Gaza. Netanyahu hopes he will get a pretext to do the same in Lebanon, but Hezbollah already knows the consequences of war with Israel, and I doubt they will be willing to share the same fate with Hamas.

 

[mehmed beg]

I don't think that the thing like Natanyahu staying in power is the main objective
He has been working on this for decades and he has the full support . Saying anything else is doing a favour to this creatures. There is nothing that indicates that in Israeli society, that there is enough people to make it any different.
About 95% supports everything.
I believe that in some way Palestinians were led into a trap.
As of the people who think that something can be done with these demons , let me remind them, the last week in the Congress all those American charlatans kneeled down and suck off this Polak.
When these on a first look charlatans has to bend the knees , what do you expect then?
This is the cult, the political idea if there's such thing is just a necessity.

 

[Afif]

Apperantly, Israel is pre-empting in Lebanon and Syria?

 

[Kartal1]

"Diplomatic traffic" between Israel and Turkiye continues. After the insulting messages of the Israeli MoFA towards President Erdogan, one of the leading figures from the main opposition party CHP did a statement in response.

Ekrem Imamoglu:

"I am returning your statement, which insults the flag of the Republic of Türkiye and the President, as it is.

We have no need to receive lessons on democracy and law from those responsible for the suffering and deaths of countless innocents including children.

Yes, a brighter future is indeed possible—when Palestine is free."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1819441092783133139

 

[Kartal1]

Apperantly, Israel is pre-empting in Lebanon and Syria?

They may be targeting logistics and weapons traffic.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1819445261862678650

This comes after the Iranian MoD urged its citizens to not shoot photograph the military equipment traffic that they will witness. It is clear that intense preparations are going on from all the sides.

 

[Afif]

They may be targeting logistics and weapons traffic.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1819445261862678650

This comes after the Iranian MoD urged its citizens to not shoot photograph the military equipment traffic that they will witness. It is clear that intense preparations are going on from all the sides.

One thing I always get baffled by, is that US and Western intelligence agencies in general almost always knows hours in advance.

I understand how electro-optical sensing/radar/SIGINT/COMINT/OSINT works. But if I use my secure fiber optic network only for Command and control, (no emissions) and order few dozens of launchers to come out of the base and fire on very short notice at night, I can't figure how could still US knows it's coming.

 

[Huelague]

If this does escalate, it will be very interesting to see how Iranian / Hezbollah air defense does in handling Israeli and American F-35s. Can they handle the potential combination of sea launched TLAMs and air launched JASSMs and a variety of JDAMs?

I doubt the Americans actually get air power involved in the conflict for any offensive purposes, but if they do, I'd like to see how Iran does. They've been talking up their domestic air defense systems, as well as their Russian systems.

The more the US will be involved, the more foreign powers will follow.

 

[Gary]

Former Indonesian vice president, Jusuf Kalla (2004-2009, 2014-2019) attended the funeral of Haniyeh in Doha.

 

[Sanchez]

One thing I always get baffled by, is that US and Western intelligence agencies in general almost always knows hours in advance.

I understand how electro-optical sensing/radar/SIGINT/COMINT/OSINT works. But if I use my secure fiber optic network only for Command and control, (no emissions) and order few dozens of launchers to come out of the base and fire on very short notice at night, I can't figure how could still US knows it's coming.

Very likely people themselves are compromised. We saw this before the Ukraine invasion, every single thing US intelligence said became true.

 

[Kartal1]

One thing I always get baffled by, is that US and Western intelligence agencies in general almost always knows hours in advance.

I understand how electro-optical sensing/radar/SIGINT/COMINT/OSINT works. But if I use my secure fiber optic network only for Command and control, (no emissions) and order few dozens of launchers to come out of the base and fire on very short notice at night, I can't figure how could still US knows it's coming.

Intelligence is a very important especially in this case. I have no doubt that more resource is used by both the US and Israeli services and armed forces to monitor Hezbollah's movement than what we can anticipate from our screens.

I am not an expert, but next to these methods of intelligence gathering you listed we should also add HUMINT, cyber surveillance and pattern analysis.

The hot points of Hezbollah are more or less known. By enhanced surveillance one can detect unusual activity and conduct pre-emptive strikes to disrupt logistics as we saw earlier in Syria. There are certainly not a thousand ways to initiate this order and Israel (allies included) probably works on interpreting patterns and use their HUMINT and cyber surveillance options as well. Analyzing changes in terrain is also a thing.

Rocket/missile supplies are spread all around Lebanon into multiple storage sites, often integrated into a reinforced tunnel network and civilian infrastructure. Apart from static launching points I believe Hezbollah also uses mobile launchers which they periodically move from place to place. If these launchers movement is intercepted it may give the right signal. As much as Hezbollah is ready for attack there is certainly a preparation phase in order to ensure that attack of such a scale goes as smooth and coordinated as possible. As much as we talk about the movement of equipment I think civilian and social behavior are also an indicator. Large masses of civilians moving in a pattern, evacuations are a big signal to what's coming. I think there is a lot of "chatter" going on during this preparation phase. Between this chatter and the actual order there is for sure the moment of "the calm before the storm".

I mean that all this is not happening for the first time. The services of Israel and the US certainly are looking for a some kind of pattern and are monitoring everything listed by you and also me closely. We didn't talk about it too much, but I think HUMINT and cyber surveillance play a critical role in all this.

EDIT: Iranian State owned IRIB TV3 channel:

"In the coming hours, the world will witness exciting scenes and very important developments."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1819464688884961392

@Afif I think there's no need to be CIA to know hours in advance

The Iranians are truly showmen. We should give it to them.

 

[Afif]

Intelligence is a very important especially in this case. I have no doubt that more resource is used by both the US and Israeli services and armed forces to monitor Hezbollah's movement than what we can anticipate from our screens.

I am not an expert, but next to these methods of intelligence gathering you listed we should also add HUMINT, cyber surveillance and pattern analysis.

The hot points of Hezbollah are more or less known. By enhanced surveillance one can detect unusual activity and conduct pre-emptive strikes to disrupt logistics as we saw earlier in Syria. There are certainly not a thousand ways to initiate this order and Israel (allies included) probably works on interpreting patterns and use their HUMINT and cyber surveillance options as well. Analyzing changes in terrain is also a thing.

Rocket/missile supplies are spread all around Lebanon into multiple storage sites, often integrated into a reinforced tunnel network and civilian infrastructure. Apart from static launching points I believe Hezbollah also uses mobile launchers which they periodically move from place to place. If these launchers movement is intercepted it may give the right signal. As much as Hezbollah is ready for attack there is certainly a preparation phase in order to ensure that attack of such a scale goes as smooth and coordinated as possible. As much as we talk about the movement of equipment I think civilian and social behavior are also an indicator. Large masses of civilians moving in a pattern, evacuations are a big signal to what's coming. I think there is a lot of "chatter" going on during this preparation phase. Between this chatter and the actual order there is for sure the moment of "the calm before the storm".

I mean that all this is not happening for the first time. The services of Israel and the US certainly are looking for a some kind of pattern and are monitoring everything listed by you and also me closely. We didn't talk about it too much, but I think HUMINT and cyber surveillance play a critical role in all this.

EDIT: Iranian State owned IRIB TV3 channel:

"In the coming hours, the world will witness exciting scenes and very important developments."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1819464688884961392

@Afif I think there's no need to be CIA to know hours in advance

The Iranians are truly showmen. We should give it to them.

Oh you are totally right. Pattern analysis is how most wider intelligence products are produced through analyzing huge amount of data, i actually have it in mind. But this is most effective against non state actors who is embebded in civilian population that does produce lots of OSINT patterns and also can't deny the enemy stand off reconnaissance to collect data and turn it into intelligence. For an state actor like Iran, they ought to have much more security screens right? For start, a secure and independent C2 and communications systems for armed forces, no?

My theory is, beside all this known capabilities, there are technique, procedures combined with some Si Fi type technologies that we don't know off, produces outstanding results.

EDIT: Iranian State owned IRIB TV3 channel:

"In the coming hours, the world will witness exciting scenes and very important developments."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1819464688884961392

@Afif I think there's no need to be CIA to know hours in advance

The Iranians are truly showmen. We should give it to them

Lol. We should.