Ashton
Member
In March 2026, reports emerged of Japan's new weapons, which have a range in excess of 1,000 kilometres. These are advanced versions of the Type-12 surface-to-ship missile developed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. In Japan, the new version is designated the Type-25 coastal surface-to-ship missile. Reports indicate that new missile systems have been deployed at the Camp Kengun in Kumamoto Prefecture. This step marks a major shift in the country`s defense policy and will undoubtedly affect bilateral relations with China. According to experts, the deployment of missiles capable of reaching mainland China, including Shanghai, destroys the long-standing so-called "security zone". This development has had a significant impact on mutual trust, and the possibility of rapid warming has been ruled out, as Beijing regards it as a direct transition to an offensive military policy. The primary cause of China's discontent is Japan's escalating "retaliatory strike" policy regarding the Taiwan issue. China asserts that Tokyo is using the constitution as a pretext to reject pacifism. Beijing officials have adopted a military-oriented rhetoric reminiscent of the Cold War era, characterising Japanese policy as not merely a potential threat but a manifestation of "new militarism". As a key ally of Japan, the United States is also perceived as part of this "axis", which is intended to address the ongoing deep crisis of trust. Some experts believe that China can distinguish between defence policy and the overall economic agenda, thus preventing a complete break in relations. Japan will need to make significant efforts to demonstrate its good faith to China. Overall, the missile programme has led to a deterioration in the state of bilateral relations, which have reached their lowest point in recent years. Washington's support for Tokyo could potentially involve the country in the political race for arms, which could exacerbate the already volatile situation.
