Ukraine Analysis Scholz’s lies and manipulations to avoid sending weapons to Ukraine

[Woland]

While Ukrainians are bravely fighting against Russia’s invasion, nations all over the world are helping however they can: from accepting refugees to sending weapons. Heavy arms is the type of foreign aid that Ukraine currently needs the most. As one of Europe’s top weapons manufacturers, the German defense industry is crucial for Ukraine. Unfortunately, Germany’s leader Olaf Scholz seems very reluctant to send arms that could be a turning point in the war; here’s a timeline of his manipulations in a bid to avoid supplying weapons.

1. On Feb 28, Germany's defense industry sends Scholz a 48-page list of all weapons it can deliver. List includes heavy weaponry, including those Ukraine wants: Panzerhaubitze (PzH) 2000 artillery system and the Leopard 2 battle tank. [1] German defense industry leaders (Rheinmetall, Hensoldt) publicly state they have the vehicles and ammunition ready to be handed over. [2] Scholz doesn’t share this list with Ukraine. [3]

2. On Mar 20, Scholz says there are no more weapons left in Germany to give to Ukraine. [15] In the ten days following this statement he recognizes that there are some weapons that could be sent, but the list of available weaponry is now just a half of the amount offered by manufacturers and includes 3/15 types of arms requested by Kyiv. [4]

3. On Apr 1, the German defense industry proposes the German army send their existing infantry fighting vehicles (Marders) now, and Rheinmetall will replace them from existing ones in its storage that it will refurbish. [5]

4. On Apr 3, Scholz claims the Marders are bound by NATO and NATO must approve their transfer. [6] Three days later he claims Ukrainians can't master Western heavy weaponry in the available time. [7]

5. On Apr 11, German defense industry states experienced Ukrainian soldiers could be trained on the Leopard 1 tank within a few days. Ukrainian army agrees. Rheinmetall states it can deliver the first tanks in six weeks and the rest over the following three months, for a total of 50. [8]

6. On Apr 14, German government claims all NATO members have ruled out sending heavy weapons, and there must be consensus before heavy weapons are sent. [14] This is not true: US, UK, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia, Turkey and Czech had sent or announced upcoming deliveries of heavy weaponry. [10]

7. On Apr 15, Scholz, under pressure, announces €2 billion for Ukraine's military. Later the details of the “€2 billion” are revealed: Ukraine can buy weaponry for only €1.2 billion. 400 million will go to the European Peace Facility, 400 million to other countries entirely. There is no timeline, weaponry must be bought from Germany, and Germany must approve all purchases. [16]

8. On Apr 19, the leaders of EU and NATO convened after Russia launched its new offensive. US, UK, Canada announce new deliveries of heavy weaponry, mostly artillery, on the same day.

9. Scholz meanwhile makes a statement that Ukraine can have anything it wants from the old list. [11]

10. Ukraine's ambassador says that Scholz removed all the items Ukraine actually wants from the list, and that the list doesn’t have heavy weapons. [12]

11. On Apr 20, Netherlands announces it will send modern German-made artillery, the PzH 2000 (see #1). Meanwhile, Germany states it will only help with artillery training, ammunition, and maintenance. [13]

Scholz is doing everything he can to avoid giving Ukraine weapons while making it seem like he's trying to help. This war showed us who is brave enough to stand for democracy and freedom, and who is only pretending to hold those values.

Ukraine still needs Heavy Weapons.

Share it with hashtag #ArmUkraineNow and #GermanyWakeUp.

Sources:​

[1] - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...t-on-scale-of-its-weapons-support-for-ukraine
[2] - https://www.ft.com/content/3cff6597-a013-414b-914b-81769aa27c6f
[3] - https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland...beginn-von-Hunderten-lieferbaren-Panzern.html
[4] - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...t-on-scale-of-its-weapons-support-for-ukraine
https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland...beginn-von-Hunderten-lieferbaren-Panzern.html
https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/polit...-mit-waffenlisten-trickste-79826290.bild.html
[5] - https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-says-it-cant-send-tanks-from-army-stocks-to-ukraine/
[6] - https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/polit...um-lehnt-ab-peinlicher-aer-79726512.bild.html
[7] - https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...s-ukraine-that-can-be-used-scholz-2022-04-06/
[8] - https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ply-up-50-tanks-ukraine-newspaper-2022-04-11/
[9] - https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-germa...e-over-bucha-deaths-as-it-happened/a-61343522
[10] - https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html
[11] - https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/scholz-ukraine-militaerhilfe-101.html
[12] - twitter.com/MarianBracht/status/1516524977520103424?t=NU2cOYWU07n76DfgZzA2LQ&s=19
[13] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...e-ukraine-with-rockets-training-for-artillery
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ery-ammunition-training/ar-AAWoTAv?li=BBnbcA1
[14] - https://www.politico.eu/article/ber...-amid-warnings-that-west-could-become-target/
[15] - https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/vert...ht-spd-zu-waffenkaeufen-fuer-ukraine-100.html
[16] - https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/scholz-ukraine-militaerhilfe-101.html

 

[McCool]

Scholz :

 

[Madokafc]

Scholz :

View attachment 42956

Look like he is quite close with some Russian and ex East Germany official

 

[Ryder]

Look like he is quite close with some Russian and ex East Germany official

Merkel is also from East Germany

East Germans are helping the Russians as usual LOL

 

[Blackbeardsgoldfish]

To give a bit of context as to why this is not happening - the simple reality is that Germany is too dependent on russian energy imports to ignore or outright cut its supply lines.

From the Press Release of the German Ministry for Statistics on the 24th of February 2022:

• Trade with Russia in 2021 up 34% on the previous year
• Especially imports grew markedly (+54%) because of higher energy prices
• Crude oil and natural gas accounted for roughly 59% of all imports from Russia

"The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that goods to the value of roughly 59.8 billion euros were traded between the two countries in 2021 – 34.1% more than in the previous year."
"Especially imports from Russia rose considerably in 2021. They were up 54.2% on 2020."
"In 2021, Germany imported in particular crude oil and natural gas to the value of 19.4 billion euros – that was a 49.5% increase and accounted for 59% of all imports from Russia."

In 2021, Germany produced a grand total of some 518Bil KWh of electricity, of which 57,6% were produced via fossil fuel, with the remaining 42,4% being produced from renewable energy sources[1].
Around 30% of fossil fuel energy was produced via coal, of which some 60% was lignite and 40% being hard coal. Germany produces plenty of lignite[2], however very little hard coal and therefore needs to import it, which it overwhelmingly does from Russia, with more than 50% coming from RUS(second is USA at 17% and AUS at 15%)[3].

From an earlier post of mine on german gas consumption:
In 2020, Germany consumed 86.5 Billion m³ of natural gas, down from 88.7Bil m³ in 2019.
German pipeline imports are distributed between 13.0Bil m³ from the Netherlands, 31.2Bil m³ from Norway and 1.6Bil m³ from other Europe, but it's largest supplier by far is Russia, at 56.3Bil m³ in 2020, all in all 102.0Bil m³ of gas were imported in 2020. To contrast this, France imported 2.6Bil m³ of gas from Russia, Italy 19.6Bil m³ and Turkey 15.6Bil m³. Outside BEL, FR, IT, NL, ES, TR, UKR and the UK, the rest of the EU imported 55.2Bil m³ of russian gas, less than Germany(!).

The german initiative to go green, the so called "Energiewende", requires the country to wind down its dependence on coal, gas and oil to produce electricity, heating and transportation energy via renewable energy sources. There has been good progress made on this, however the part played by coal power and nuclear power in electricity generation, gas in heating and industrial application and oil for the german cars is too important for the german economy to ignore. And Russia plays an enormous part in all of this. Gas as the cleanest fossil fuel will also have the longevity that coal and oil simply don't have in this context, and Russia has the worlds largest gas reserves, and the supply network to Germany is extensive and cheaper than LNG shipments from the Gulf or overseas.

The economic background to the political talking must not be ignored in this context. Getting angry at Scholz and his government for not helping Ukraine more is understandable and should be the case, but he is constrained by the reality of the energy supply upon which Germany depends. Also keep in mind that Scholz has been chancellor only since December 2021, whereas his predecessor was in office for 15 years, seven of which were after the 2014 annexation of Crimea and accompanied by worsening relations with Russia. Merkel didn't manage to get Germany away from Russian energy, and she grew up in East Germany, unlike an overenthusiastic socialist youth that grew up in the west and saw the grass to be greener in the east.

[1] (In German)https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2022/03/PD22_116_43312.html
[2]https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/stati...ion_of_lignite_in_the_EU_-_statistics#Summary
[3](In German)https://www.dw.com/de/was-bedeutet-ein-importstopp-für-russische-kohle/a-61378666#:~:text=Im Zeitraum Januar bis Oktober,russischen Steinkohle wird bereits verringert.

Two earlier posts of mine that give a bit of an overview regarding the german and european energy situation:

In 2020, Europe in total consumed 541.1Bil m³ of gas, which is down from the 553.5Bil m³ consumption of 2019. Out of which, Germany consumed 86.5 Billion m³ of natural gas, down from 88.7Bil m³ in 2019.

In 2020, Europe imported a total of 326.1Bil m³ of natural gas, out of which 211.3Bil m³ were imported by Pipeline, with a further 114.8Bil m³ being LNG. In total, Europe exported 5.6Bil m³ via LNG, which was also the total export of natural gas.

German pipeline imports are distributed between 13.0Bil m³ from the Netherlands, 31.2Bil m³ from Norway and 1.6Bil m³ from other Europe, but it's largest supplier by far is Russia, at 56.3Bil m³ in 2020, all in all 102.0Bil m³ of gas were imported in 2020. To contrast this, France imported 2.6Bil m³ of gas from Russia, Italy 19.6Bil m³ and Turkey 15.6Bil m³. Outside BEL, FR, IT, NL, ES, TR, UKR and the UK, the rest of the EU imported 55.2Bil m³ of russian gas, less than Germany(!).

The total production of gas in Europe amounted to 218.6Bil m³, of which the top three producers were Norway, with 111.5Bil m³, the UK, with 39.5Bil m³, and the Netherlands, with 20.0Bil m³. Denmark produced 1.4Bil m³, and Germany 4.5Bil m³.

The biggest producer of gas remains the US, with 914.6Bil m³ produced in 2020, down from 930.0Bil m³ in 2019. Russia occupies the second place, with a production of 638.5Bil m³ in 2020, down from 679Bil m³ in 2019. Number three is Iran, with a production of 250.8Bil m³ in 2020, up from the 241.4Bil m³ produced in 2019.

By continent, North America produced 1109.9Bil m³, with Canada producing 165.2Bil m³ and Mexico 30.1Bil m³, figures for US in the upper paragraph. South & Central America produced 152.9Bil m³, with Argentina producing the most at 38.3Bil m³, followed by Trinidad & Tobago at 29.5Bil m³. The CIS states produced 802.4Bil m³, Turkmenistan being second with 59.0Bil m³, and Uzbekistan third with 47.1Bil m³, Russian figures mentioned above. The middle east produced a grand total of 686.6Bil m³, Qatar coming second at 171.3Bil m³ and Saudi Arabia third with 112.1Bil m³, Iran is first and figures are above. Africa produced a total of 231.3Bil m³, Algeria coming in first with 81.5Bil m³, Egypt second with 58.5Bilm³ and Nigeria third with 49.4Bil m³. The Asia-Pacific space produced 652.1Bil m³ of gas, China coming in first at 194.0Bil m³, Australia second with 142.5Bil m³ and Indonesia third at 73.2Bil m³. All figures are for 2020, in which the world total production was 3853.7Bil m³, down from 3976.2Bil m³ in 2019.

In terms of reserves, the most proven reserves at the end of 2020 were found in Russia, which possesses 37.4Tril m³ of proven reserves. Iran comes second, possessing 32.1Tril m³, and Qatar third with 24.7Tril m³. Turkmenistan has 13.6Tril m³ of proven reserves, the US 12.6Tril m³ and China 8.4Tril m³. Europe in total has 3.2Tril m³ of proven reserves, and the global total is 188.1Tril m³.

Russian exports of gas amount to 238.1Bil m³, of which 197.7Bil m³ were exported via Pipeline, with a further 40.4Bil m³ being LNG. This amounts to a total of 238.1Bil m³ of exports in 2020, which is a 25.3% share of total global exports in that year.

Figures have been taken from the BP Statistical review for 2020, and there's loads more of them in that, if this wasn't enough.

European Energy in Numbers

To give an overview of the total european energy consumption, I've decided to compile a bit of data. Figures are primarily taken from the BP Statistical Review for 2021, however I'll also be including from other sources such as Eurostat Energy Overview and various news articles. The data is mostly for 2020, if not explicitly stated otherwise.

This is part One of Two, detailing Coal, Oil and Gas. In part Two, I will go into more detail about nuclear energy, hydropower and renewable energy.

COAL
Proven reserves in Million tonnes:
° Denotes data taken from the BP stat review and gives figures for 2020.
* Denotes data taken from The Global Economy coal reserves ranking and gives figures for 2017. Amount was also given in short tonnes, so I did a crude conversion into metric tonnes.
^ Denotes data taken from Britannica - France Resources and Power

Bulgaria°	2366	Türkiye°	11525
Czech Rep.°	3595	Ukraine°	34375
Germany°	35900	UK°	26
Greece°	2876	Albania*	521
Hungary°	2909	Bosnia & Herzegovina*	2263
Poland°	28395	Netherlands*	496
Romania°	291	Slovenia*	370
Serbia°	7514	North Macedonia*	331
Spain°	1187	Portugal*	35
Slovakia*	134	Ireland*	13
Montenegro*	141	Italy*	9
Norway*	0.9	Sweden*	0.9
France^	140

I am very much doubtful if the data for IT, SWE, NOR and UK is accurate, but I couldn't find many other sources to look it up.

Coal Production:
Data here is taken from the BP stat review and was originally given in Exajoules. However, I've decided to convert it to Tonnes, so figures here are displayed in Tonnes.

Bulgaria	5459334	Spain	2729667
Czech Rep.	14671962	Türkiye	20472505
Germany	33438425	Ukraine	18425254
Greece	3753292	UK	1706042
Hungary	1364833	Other Europe	15695587
Poland	57323015
Romania	3753292
Serbia	9895044

In total, Europe in 2020 produced some 5.53EJ of Coal, or 188.688.258 metric tons of coal equivalent. This is down from 6.48EJ in 2019 and 9.60EJ in 2010.

Europe imported a total of 3.90EJ or 133.071.285 metric tons of coal, while exporting 0.22EJ or 7.506.585 metric tons.

COAL IN EUROPE 2020 - Lignite production, Hard coal production & Imports
View attachment 42585

Coal Consumption

Data here is taken from the BP stat review and was originally given in EJ, but I've again converted it into metric tons.

Austria	3070875	Portugal	682416
Belgium	3753292	Romania	5118126
Czech Rep.	16719212	Spain	2388458
Finland	4435709	Sweden	2388458
France	6482960	Switzerland	Coal Free since 2015
Germany	62782349	Turkey	56640598
Greece	3753292	Ukraine	33438425
Hungary	2388458	United Kingdom	6482960
Italy	7165376
Netherlands	6141751
Norway	1023625
Poland	56981806

The three top consumers are Germany with 1.84EJ, Poland with 1.67EJ and Türkiye with 1.66EJ of coal consumed in 2020. Top three countries with least consumption are Switzerland with being coal free, Portugal with 0.02EJ and Norway with 0.03EJ of coal consumed in 2020.

This list is fairly incomplete and doesn't include a couple of countries like the Baltics or various Balkan nations, especially Bulgaria which was listed in the reserves and production figures so I don't know what's up with that. Data here is generally lacking, and I'll potentially redo it in the future.

OIL
Proven reserves in billion barrels:
°Denotes data taken from the BP Statistical review and gives figures for 2020
*Denotes data taken from The Global Economy Oil Reserves Europe and gives figures for 2021

Denmark°	0.4	Spain*	0.15
Italy°	0.6	Netherlands*	0.14
Norway°	7.9	Germany*	0.12
Romania°	0.6	Poland*	0.11
UK °	2.5	Serbia*	0.08
Ukraine*	0.40	Croatia*	0.07
Türkiye*	0.37	France*	0.06
Belarus*	0.20	Austria *	0.04
Albania*	0.15	Bulgaria*	0.02
Hungary *	0.01	Czech Rep.*	0.02
Lithuania*	0.01	Greece*	0.01

Just BP review gives the total proven european oil reserves in 2020 at 13.6Bil barrels, which really goes to show just how poor Europe is in natural oil reserves. Compare this to other nations in the neighbourhood, such as Kazakhstan, which holds approximately 30Bil barrels, more than double of Europe, or Azerbaijan at 7Bil barrels, which is a bit more than half of Europe.

Oil Production in thousands of barrels/day:
°Denotes data taken from the BP stat review, figures for 2020
*Denotes data taken from Trading economics european crude oil production, figures for December 2021

Denmark°	72	Germany*	34
Italy°	112	Netherlands*	33
Norway°	2001	Belarus*	33
Romania°	72	Ukraine*	33
UK°	1029	Hungary*	19
Türkiye*	67	Albania*	16
Serbia*	15	Croatia*	11
Czech Rep.*	1.7	Austria*	10
Bulgaria*	1	Lithuania*	0.7

The BP review gives the total daily production in Europe at 3579thousand barrels/day in 2020. This is comparable to the daily production of the UAE, which sat at approximately 3657 thousand barrels/day.

Oil consumption in thousands of barrels/day:
All data has been taken from the BP review.

Austria	230	Norway	206
Belgium	476	Poland	637
Czech Rep.	182	Portugal	202
Finland	178	Romania	216
France	1305	Spain	1050
Germany	2045	Sweden	260
Greece	244	Switzerland	179
Hungary	164	Turkey	903
Italy	1054	Ukraine	232
Netherlands	746	UK	1192

European countries not listed here consumed 1085 thousand barrels/day. The total daily consumption of oil in Europe in 2020 amounted to approximately 12788 thousand barrels/day. On a continent to continent comparison, Europe is third after Asia-Pacific, which consumed 33834 thousand barrels/day, and North America, which consumed 20772 thousand barrels/day.

Eurostat gives the consumption in Millions of tonnes in 2020 as such:
View attachment 42592

Consumption of oil by product group in thousands of barrels/day:
Data has been taken from the BP stat review.
°Denotes data for total Europe
*Denotes data for European Union

Ethane + LPG	1131°/ 720*
Naphtha	812°/ 742*
Gasoline	1768°/ 1377*
Jet/Kerosene	737°/ 463*
Diesel/Gasoil	6077°/ 4673*
Fuel oil	661°/ 568*
Others	1602°/ 1230*

NATURAL GAS
Proven reserves in Trillion m³:
All figures have been taken from the BP stat review

Netherlands	0.1
Norway	1.4
Poland	0.1
Romania	0.1
Ukraine	1.1
United Kingdom	0.2

Production figures in Billion m³:
All figures have been taken from the BP stat review

Denmark	1.4
Germany	4.5
Italy	3.9
Netherlands	20.0
Norway	111.5
Poland	3.9
Romania	8.7
Ukraine	19.0
UK	39.5
Other Europe	6.3

Europe in total produced 218.6Bil m³ of gas in 2020, down from 235.2Bil m³ in 2019 and 310.1Bil m³ in 2010.

Consumption of natural gas in Billion m³:
All figures have been taken from the BP review

Austria	8.5	Norway	4.4
Belgium	17.0	Poland	21.6
Czech Rep.	8.5	Portugal	6.0
Finland	2.0	Romania	11.3
France	40.7	Spain	32.4
Germany	86.5	Sweden	1.1
Greece	5.7	Switzerland	3.2
Hungary	10.2	Turkey	46.4
Italy	67.7	Ukraine	29.3
Netherlands	36.6	UK	72.5

European countries not listed here consumed an additional 29.6Bil m³ of gas in 2020. Europe in total consumed 541.1Bil m³ of gas in 2020.

Import and Export of Gas:

In terms of import and export, Europe imported some 326.1Bil m³ of gas, of which 211.3Bil m³ were pipeline imports, with another 114.8Bil m³ being LNG. Exports also occurred, though those were vastly smaller, sitting at 5.6Bil m³ getting exported as LNG, with none via Pipeline.

LNG imports in Billion m³ of European countries in 2020:
All figures have been taken from the BP stat review

Belgium	5.1
France	19.6
Italy	12.1
Spain	20.9
Türkiye	14.8
UK	18.6
Other EU	23.7
Other Europe	0.1

Pipeline imports of natural gas in Billion m³
Figures have been taken from the BP stat review
Importers are displayed vertically, Exporters are displayed horizontally

	Netherlands	Norway	Other Europe	Azerbaijan	Russia	Iran	Algeria	Libya
Belgium	8.4	7.5	1.7
France	3.8	17.6	1.7		2.6
Germany	13.0	31.2	1.6		56.3
Italy	1.6	5.4	8.4		19.7		11.5	4.2
Netherlands		20.0	7.2		11.2
Spain		1.2	2.1				9.1
Türkiye				11.1	15.6	5.1
Ukraine			14.7
UK	1.6	23.7	0.3		4.7
Other EU		0.3	56.7		55.2		0.4
Other Euro	0.3		6.3	2.2	2.5

I've already done one such compilation for gas over at the German Economy, Industry & Energy thread, if you want more info on a few things, you should have a look at that.

For a macro-overview of the gas market, have a look at The ACER gas market monitoring report.

From the ACER gas fact sheet:
Gas represents 21.5% of EU’s primary energy consumption. It is the dominant source of energy for households (32.1%).
Around 40% of households are connected to the gas network. On average, they spend EUR 700 on gas, 2.5% of their average income (EUR 27,911). However, this conceals considerable differences among Member States.
The average final household price for kWh of energy from gas is 6.5 cents/kWh, three times lower than from electricity (21.6 cents/kWh).
The EU-27 plus UK gas supply bill ranges from EUR 75-100 bn per year, depending on the wholesale sourcing price levels. At retail level, the final expenditure on gas accounts for approx. EUR 200 bn per annum.
The EU imports 80% of its total gas needs. Domestic production has halved in the last 10 years.
The residential sector accounts for most EU gas demand (40%), followed by industry and gas use for power generation. Industry consumption has declined by 20% since 2000, whereas in the same period gas use for power generation has risen by 15%. These trends are due to the EU’s economic transition from industry to energy services and structural changes in the energy-intensive industry.

 

[McCool]

To give a bit of context as to why this is not happening - the simple reality is that Germany is too dependent on russian energy imports to ignore or outright cut its supply lines.

From the Press Release of the German Ministry for Statistics on the 24th of February 2022:

• Trade with Russia in 2021 up 34% on the previous year
• Especially imports grew markedly (+54%) because of higher energy prices
• Crude oil and natural gas accounted for roughly 59% of all imports from Russia

"The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that goods to the value of roughly 59.8 billion euros were traded between the two countries in 2021 – 34.1% more than in the previous year."
"Especially imports from Russia rose considerably in 2021. They were up 54.2% on 2020."
"In 2021, Germany imported in particular crude oil and natural gas to the value of 19.4 billion euros – that was a 49.5% increase and accounted for 59% of all imports from Russia."

In 2021, Germany produced a grand total of some 518Bil KWh of electricity, of which 57,6% were produced via fossil fuel, with the remaining 42,4% being produced from renewable energy sources[1].
Around 30% of fossil fuel energy was produced via coal, of which some 60% was lignite and 40% being hard coal. Germany produces plenty of lignite[2], however very little hard coal and therefore needs to import it, which it overwhelmingly does from Russia, with more than 50% coming from RUS(second is USA at 17% and AUS at 15%)[3].

From an earlier post of mine on german gas consumption:
In 2020, Germany consumed 86.5 Billion m³ of natural gas, down from 88.7Bil m³ in 2019.
German pipeline imports are distributed between 13.0Bil m³ from the Netherlands, 31.2Bil m³ from Norway and 1.6Bil m³ from other Europe, but it's largest supplier by far is Russia, at 56.3Bil m³ in 2020, all in all 102.0Bil m³ of gas were imported in 2020. To contrast this, France imported 2.6Bil m³ of gas from Russia, Italy 19.6Bil m³ and Turkey 15.6Bil m³. Outside BEL, FR, IT, NL, ES, TR, UKR and the UK, the rest of the EU imported 55.2Bil m³ of russian gas, less than Germany(!).

The german initiative to go green, the so called "Energiewende", requires the country to wind down its dependence on coal, gas and oil to produce electricity, heating and transportation energy via renewable energy sources. There has been good progress made on this, however the part played by coal power and nuclear power in electricity generation, gas in heating and industrial application and oil for the german cars is too important for the german economy to ignore. And Russia plays an enormous part in all of this. Gas as the cleanest fossil fuel will also have the longevity that coal and oil simply don't have in this context, and Russia has the worlds largest gas reserves, and the supply network to Germany is extensive and cheaper than LNG shipments from the Gulf or overseas.

The economic background to the political talking must not be ignored in this context. Getting angry at Scholz and his government for not helping Ukraine more is understandable and should be the case, but he is constrained by the reality of the energy supply upon which Germany depends. Also keep in mind that Scholz has been chancellor only since December 2021, whereas his predecessor was in office for 15 years, seven of which were after the 2014 annexation of Crimea and accompanied by worsening relations with Russia. Merkel didn't manage to get Germany away from Russian energy, and she grew up in East Germany, unlike an overenthusiastic socialist youth that grew up in the west and saw the grass to be greener in the east.

[1] (In German)https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2022/03/PD22_116_43312.html
[2]https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/stati...ion_of_lignite_in_the_EU_-_statistics#Summary
[3](In German)https://www.dw.com/de/was-bedeutet-ein-importstopp-für-russische-kohle/a-61378666#:~:text=Im Zeitraum Januar bis Oktober,russischen Steinkohle wird bereits verringert.

Two earlier posts of mine that give a bit of an overview regarding the german and european energy situation:

Is that somehow an excuse not to sell weapons to Ukraine? I mean others actually give weapons for FREE and we don't see Russia stopping any gas supplies.

 

[Blackbeardsgoldfish]

Is that somehow an excuse not to sell weapons to Ukraine? I mean others actually give weapons for FREE and we don't see Russia stopping any gas supplies.

No it isn't an excuse for that. I don't support the lack of german supplies to Ukraine and the german diplomacy with Russia. My post was meant to give somewhat of an overview of the economic dimensions behind it, and how deeply dependent Germany is on russian energy.

And it pains me to say this, but I believe that Germany will have a rapprochement with Russia fairly soon after the war ends. The energy supply is too important. Merkel had seven years to build the LNG infrastructure necessary to make russian gas more or less negligible, but she didn't do that. Scholz now has to deal with the fallout and tread a very careful path with Russia to keep the relations stable enough.

 

[Gary]

No it isn't an excuse for that. I don't support the lack of german supplies to Ukraine and the german diplomacy with Russia. My post was meant to give somewhat of an overview of the economic dimensions behind it, and how deeply dependent Germany is on russian energy.

And it pains me to say this, but I believe that Germany will have a rapprochement with Russia fairly soon after the war ends. The energy supply is too important. Merkel had seven years to build the LNG infrastructure necessary to make russian gas more or less negligible, but she didn't do that. Scholz now has to deal with the fallout and tread a very careful path with Russia to keep the relations stable enough.

Isn't there any alternative? Gas from Qatar maybe ?

 

[Woland]

To give a bit of context as to why this is not happening - the simple reality is that Germany is too dependent on russian energy imports to ignore or outright cut its supply lines.

From the Press Release of the German Ministry for Statistics on the 24th of February 2022:

• Trade with Russia in 2021 up 34% on the previous year
• Especially imports grew markedly (+54%) because of higher energy prices
• Crude oil and natural gas accounted for roughly 59% of all imports from Russia

"The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that goods to the value of roughly 59.8 billion euros were traded between the two countries in 2021 – 34.1% more than in the previous year."
"Especially imports from Russia rose considerably in 2021. They were up 54.2% on 2020."
"In 2021, Germany imported in particular crude oil and natural gas to the value of 19.4 billion euros – that was a 49.5% increase and accounted for 59% of all imports from Russia."

In 2021, Germany produced a grand total of some 518Bil KWh of electricity, of which 57,6% were produced via fossil fuel, with the remaining 42,4% being produced from renewable energy sources[1].
Around 30% of fossil fuel energy was produced via coal, of which some 60% was lignite and 40% being hard coal. Germany produces plenty of lignite[2], however very little hard coal and therefore needs to import it, which it overwhelmingly does from Russia, with more than 50% coming from RUS(second is USA at 17% and AUS at 15%)[3].

From an earlier post of mine on german gas consumption:
In 2020, Germany consumed 86.5 Billion m³ of natural gas, down from 88.7Bil m³ in 2019.
German pipeline imports are distributed between 13.0Bil m³ from the Netherlands, 31.2Bil m³ from Norway and 1.6Bil m³ from other Europe, but it's largest supplier by far is Russia, at 56.3Bil m³ in 2020, all in all 102.0Bil m³ of gas were imported in 2020. To contrast this, France imported 2.6Bil m³ of gas from Russia, Italy 19.6Bil m³ and Turkey 15.6Bil m³. Outside BEL, FR, IT, NL, ES, TR, UKR and the UK, the rest of the EU imported 55.2Bil m³ of russian gas, less than Germany(!).

The german initiative to go green, the so called "Energiewende", requires the country to wind down its dependence on coal, gas and oil to produce electricity, heating and transportation energy via renewable energy sources. There has been good progress made on this, however the part played by coal power and nuclear power in electricity generation, gas in heating and industrial application and oil for the german cars is too important for the german economy to ignore. And Russia plays an enormous part in all of this. Gas as the cleanest fossil fuel will also have the longevity that coal and oil simply don't have in this context, and Russia has the worlds largest gas reserves, and the supply network to Germany is extensive and cheaper than LNG shipments from the Gulf or overseas.

The economic background to the political talking must not be ignored in this context. Getting angry at Scholz and his government for not helping Ukraine more is understandable and should be the case, but he is constrained by the reality of the energy supply upon which Germany depends. Also keep in mind that Scholz has been chancellor only since December 2021, whereas his predecessor was in office for 15 years, seven of which were after the 2014 annexation of Crimea and accompanied by worsening relations with Russia. Merkel didn't manage to get Germany away from Russian energy, and she grew up in East Germany, unlike an overenthusiastic socialist youth that grew up in the west and saw the grass to be greener in the east.

[1] (In German)https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2022/03/PD22_116_43312.html
[2]https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/stati...ion_of_lignite_in_the_EU_-_statistics#Summary
[3](In German)https://www.dw.com/de/was-bedeutet-ein-importstopp-für-russische-kohle/a-61378666#:~:text=Im Zeitraum Januar bis Oktober,russischen Steinkohle wird bereits verringert.

Two earlier posts of mine that give a bit of an overview regarding the german and european energy situation:

Germany currently imports approximately the same value of oil and gas from Russia. Import of oil can be easily replaced from that of other countries, and the impact to the German economy from completely eliminating Russian oil would be negligible. Gas is more difficult.

Overall cutting both oil and gas immediately would most likely result in a GDP loss of about 0.2-1.3% (with the lower end more likely). In the most extreme of scenarios, at the very most, it would result in a GDP loss of 2.2%. You can read the study here: https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_028_2022.pdf

It's also worth noting that even if Germany supplies Ukraine with heavy weapons, Russia is highly unlikely to cut energy exports. Russia is far too dependent on German energy money.

 

[Huelague]

While Ukrainians are bravely fighting against Russia’s invasion, nations all over the world are helping however they can: from accepting refugees to sending weapons. Heavy arms is the type of foreign aid that Ukraine currently needs the most. As one of Europe’s top weapons manufacturers, the German defense industry is crucial for Ukraine. Unfortunately, Germany’s leader Olaf Scholz seems very reluctant to send arms that could be a turning point in the war; here’s a timeline of his manipulations in a bid to avoid supplying weapons.

1. On Feb 28, Germany's defense industry sends Scholz a 48-page list of all weapons it can deliver. List includes heavy weaponry, including those Ukraine wants: Panzerhaubitze (PzH) 2000 artillery system and the Leopard 2 battle tank. [1] German defense industry leaders (Rheinmetall, Hendsoldt) publicly state they have the vehicles and ammunition ready to be handed over. Scholz doesn’t share this list with Ukraine. [2]

2. On Mar 20, Scholz says there are no more weapons left in Germany to give to Ukraine. [3] In the ten days following this statement he recognizes that there are some weapons that could be sent, but the list of available weaponry is now just a half of the amount offered by manufacturers and includes 3/15 types of arms requested by Kyiv. [4]

3. On Apr 1, the German defense industry proposes the German army send their existing infantry fighting vehicles (Marders) now, and Rheinmetall will replace them from existing ones in its storage that it will refurbish. [5]

4. On Apr 3, Scholz claims the Marders are bound by NATO and NATO must approve their transfer. [6] Three days later he claims Ukrainians can't master Western heavy weaponry in the available time. [7]

5. On Apr 11, German defense industry states experienced Ukrainian soldiers could be trained on the Leopard 1 tank within a few days. Ukrainian army agrees. Rheinmetall states it can deliver the first tanks in six weeks and the rest over the following three months, for a total of 50. [8]

6. On Apr 14, German government claims all NATO members have ruled out sending heavy weapons, and there must be consensus before heavy weapons are sent. [14] This is not true: US, UK, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia, Turkey and Czech had sent or announced upcoming deliveries of heavy weaponry. [9]

7. On Apr 15, Scholz, under pressure, announces €2 billion for Ukraine's military. Later the details of the “€2 billion” are revealed: Ukraine can buy weaponry for only €1.2 billion. 400 million will go to the European Peace Facility, 400 million to other countries entirely. There is no timeline, weaponry must be bought from Germany, and Germany must approve all purchases. [10]

8. On Apr 19, the leaders of EU and NATO convened after Russia launched its new offensive. US, UK, Canada announce new deliveries of heavy weaponry, mostly artillery, on the same day.

9. Scholz meanwhile makes a statement that Ukraine can have anything it wants from the old list. [11]

10. Ukraine's ambassador says that Scholz removed all the items Ukraine actually wants from the list, and that the list doesn’t have heavy weapons. [12]

11. On Apr 20, Netherlands announces it will send modern German-made artillery, the PzH 2000 (see #1). Meanwhile, Germany states it will only help with artillery training, ammunition, and maintenance. [13]

Scholz is doing everything he can to avoid giving Ukraine weapons while making it seem like he's trying to help. This war showed us who is brave enough to stand for democracy and freedom, and who is only pretending to hold those values.

Ukraine still needs Heavy Weapons.

Share it with hashtag #ArmUkraineNow.

Sources:​

(1) - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...t-on-scale-of-its-weapons-support-for-ukraine
(2) - https://www.ft.com/content/3cff6597-a013-414b-914b-81769aa27c6f
(3) - https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland...beginn-von-Hunderten-lieferbaren-Panzern.html
(4) - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...t-on-scale-of-its-weapons-support-for-ukraine
https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland...beginn-von-Hunderten-lieferbaren-Panzern.html
https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/polit...-mit-waffenlisten-trickste-79826290.bild.html
(5) - https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-says-it-cant-send-tanks-from-army-stocks-to-ukraine/
(6) - https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/polit...um-lehnt-ab-peinlicher-aer-79726512.bild.html
(7) - https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...s-ukraine-that-can-be-used-scholz-2022-04-06/
(8) - https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ply-up-50-tanks-ukraine-newspaper-2022-04-11/
(9) - https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-germa...e-over-bucha-deaths-as-it-happened/a-61343522
(10) - https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html
(11) - https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/scholz-ukraine-militaerhilfe-101.html
(12) - twitter.com/MarianBracht/status/1516524977520103424?t=NU2cOYWU07n76DfgZzA2LQ&s=19
(13) - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...e-ukraine-with-rockets-training-for-artillery
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ery-ammunition-training/ar-AAWoTAv?li=BBnbcA1
(14) - https://www.politico.eu/article/ber...-amid-warnings-that-west-could-become-target/

How long it takes to practice in Leopard 2A6, what do you think?

 

[UkroTurk]

This is my writing

Germany currently imports approximately the same value of oil and gas from Russia. Import of oil can be easily replaced from that of other countries, and the impact to the German economy from completely eliminating Russian oil would be negligible. Gas is more difficult.

Overall cutting both oil and gas immediately would most likely result in a GDP loss of about 0.2-1.3% (with the lower end more likely). In the most extreme of scenarios, at the very most, it would result in a GDP loss of 2.2%. You can read the study here: https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_028_2022.pdf

It's also worth noting that even if Germany supplies Ukraine with heavy weapons, Russia is highly unlikely to cut energy exports. Russia is far too dependent on German energy money.

The most critical problem is not just Total GDP lose, Revenues of RF government.

Also distribution of GDP not equal in RF , there are big distance between income levels. Most of citizens work for government .



As Most of Russian budget revenues come from export of natural gas/oil , Any pause will cause spending dolar reserves and government will be bankrupt.

For instance if any country didn't buy Russian gas/oil/metals and RF couldn't export anything, the country reserve would end after 2 years.

" İf Russia didnt export any gas/oil" sounds crazy but which countries have enough money to buy all Russian gas/oil/ annual supply?

Russia could export gas/oil by good prices just to rich Europeans.

İf EU don't buy Russian gas, The Chinese will buy for half price.

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It is expected that federal budget, revenues will grow in nominal terms to 25.2 trillion rubles ($341 bln) in 2022, 25.54 trillion rubles ($349 bln) in 2023 and 25.83 trillion rubles ($352 bln) in 2024.

Spending is planned at 23.61 trillion rubles ($322 bln) in 2022, 25.1 trillion rubles ($343 bln) in 2023 and 26.14 trillion rubles ($357 bln) in 2024.
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Russia’s central bank said its foreign-currency and gold reserves plunged by $38.8 billion since peaking in February, giving the first glimpse into its holdings since the invasion of Ukraine.
The stockpile shrank to $604.4 billion as of March 25, the lowest level since last August, according to a statement Thursday. The central bank has provided no updates since its weekly report on Feb. 18, when international reserves peaked at a record $643.2 billion, and previously said it won’t release new figures for three months.
Politics

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