Executive Summary
Russian thinking about artificial intelligence (AI) development is consistent with that of other major powers that are seeking to respond to an evolving combat environment characterized by growing complexity and rapid technological change. Russia has made several pronouncements on the importance of AI in combat, yet it is often difficult to estimate whether the country’s Ministry of Defense (MOD) actually has utilized AI-enabled systems and weapons, including on the Ukrainian battlefield. Western sanctions and export controls also have the potential to increase the headwinds that Russia faces in its ability to meet its AI objectives.
Presently, the Russian military establishment is investing in AI research, development, testing, and evaluation (RDT&E) seen as most relevant today and in future combat. These investments are shaped both by the understanding of where such emphasis is placed among likely competitors, such as the United States and NATO, and where resources should be allocated based on the ongoing complicated combat in Ukraine.
Russian military discourse emphasizes that in the long term, there will be an eventual point where technologies subsume and then replace human involvement in military operations—yet in the near term, Russian military thinking affirms that humans must remain firmly in the loop. Like many major military powers around the world, the Russian MOD is investing in the development and application of different types of uncrewed systems for the air, maritime, and ground domains. At this point, as a reflection of combat in Ukraine, improving uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) capabilities with AI as a mechanism for command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) is a key emphasis in both academic writing and research and development (R&D) across Russia’s defense-industrial complex. The use of AI for data collection and analysis is also a significant part of the MOD’s impending “intellectualized” warfare as a natural evolution from the current “digital” combat technology and systems development, with AI envisioned as a data analysis enabler and a decision-making aide to operators, commanders, and deployed forces.
According to public statements, the Russian government also places a significant emphasis on using AI in information and cyber operations. Russia also is likely to apply AI in its nuclear forces command, control, management, and use. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exposed multiple deficiencies in its conduct of the war, given significant personnel and matériel losses and battlefield setbacks in 2022 and 2023. To address these challenges, the Russian government is accelerating a centralized approach to AI development and forcing greater cooperation between the country’s military and civilian sectors. For its part, the military is enabling loitering munitions, aerial drones, and certain ground-based robotic systems with greater capabilities that include AI, while potentially using it in information and cyber operations.
Yet the war in Ukraine and the resulting international sanctions also are constraining Russia’s AI development to a certain extent, with the Kremlin trying to offset such disadvantages. To mitigate the impact of Western economic pressure, Russia is pursuing import substitution and technological sovereignty programs aimed at bolstering domestic high-tech R&D and manufacturing, as well as creating investment funds and programs for domestic AI companies and entrepreneurs, while also funding future workforce developments across the national academic establishment. Russia also will rely on China for AI-related technological and policy developments, as U.S. and international pressure aims to close off certain technology cooperation and procurement avenues and outlets for Russia’s domestic AI R&D.
Despite such constraints, Russia will retain certain AI capabilities that will pose challenges for the West. It is evident that despite the difficulties Russia is experiencing on the Ukrainian battlefield and at home as it tries to maintain domestic high-technology AI R&D, the Russian Federation is dedicating government, academic, industrial, and financial resources to ensure its AI development. Such efforts deserve close and continued scrutiny.
The Role of AI in Russia’s Confrontation with the West
Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.
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