These Acquisitions And Upgrades Could Give Greece’s Air Force A Formidable Edge Over Turkey

[crixus]

Greece’s goals to acquire new fighter jets and upgrade its existing air force could see the Hellenic Air Force (HAF) attain a very formidable qualitative edge over its Turkish rival by the end of the 2020s.

Greece and Turkey are presently locked in an increasingly tense and dangerous standoff in the Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean over hydrocarbon drilling rights and the delineation of their maritime boundaries.

Amid these tensions, Athens is in negotiations with its ally France over future arms deals that might include the procurement of formidable French 4.5-generation Dassault Rafale jets. Greek possession of such jets could pose a significant challenge to Turkish jets over the Aegean and Mediterranean.

Example of a French Dassault Rafaela multirole jet fighter. Greece may seek to acquire such fighters ... [+]

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“We are in talks with France, and not only with France, in order to increase our country’s defense potential,” a Greek official told Reuters in early September, adding that these talks include “the purchase of aircraft.”

Greek media previously claimed that both countries had already reached a deal for a sale of 18 Rafale jets, although this is unconfirmed and seems quite dubious for now.

The HAL already operates a small fleet of French-built Mirage 2000-5s.

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It’s worth noting that this isn’t the first instance this year in which Greece has shown an interest in substantially upgrading its air force with more modern jets.

Greek Defense Minister Nikos Panagiotopoulos said in January, following a visit by the country’s prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to Washington, that Greece plans to procure at least 24 stealthy fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II fighter jets from the United States for $3 billion.

Panagiotopoulos expects that the lengthy acquisition process would begin after 2024.

The defense minister went so far as to say that Greece’s acquisition of F-35s would help it achieve “air superiority over Turkey” in the not-too-distant future.

He was echoed by Turkish journalist Haluk Özdalga who went so far as to say that HAL F-35s could enable Greece to turn the Aegean into a “Greek lake.”

Additionally, Özdalga said, Greek F-35s would mean “balances can be turned upside down in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, including Cyprus.”

Athens is also in the process of upgrading its air force’s existing inventory.

A Hellenic Air Force F-16C Block 52+ in demonstration flying over Thessaloniki by captain Giorgos ... [+]

NURPHOTO VIA GETTY IMAGES
Greece has just over 150 F-16s while Turkey has 245. In December, Panagiotopoulos said that 84 HAL F-16s will be updated to the latest Viper standard by 2027 as part of a $1.5 billion deal with manufacturer Lockheed Martin LMT +2.7%.

Completing that upgrade would undoubtedly give that large portion of Greece’s F-16 fleet a qualitative edge over their quantitatively superior Turkish counterpart, which operates the Block 30, 40, and 50 variants of that iconic fighter jet.

According to Lockheed Martin, upon completion of this upgrade program, “HAF F-16Vs will be the most advanced F-16s in Europe.”

Greece also signed contracts with French aerospace companies to upgrade its smaller Mirage 2000-5 fleet during the same period. The contracts’ value is estimated to amount to €260 million (approximately $300 million).

All of this comes as Turkey is facing problems with procuring new aircraft and upgrading its existing fleet.

The United States suspended Turkey from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program for its acquisition of advanced Russian S-400 air defense missile systems in 2019. Turkey likely won’t receive the jet unless it completely removes the S-400s from its territory, which it’s not likely to do.

Furthermore, Turkey is unlikely going to be able to complete its fifth-generation TAI TF-X stealth fighter by the 2030s nor procure fifth-generation fighters from other countries, such as Russia, in the same period.

Turkey may even find it will have difficulty acquiring 4.5-generation fighters to serve as stopgap fighters until it can finally field fifth-generation jets.

And on top of all this, Ankara may well find it will have difficulty upgrading its existing fleet of fighter jets.

It was recently revealed that Congress secretly blocked arms deals to Turkey since 2018, reportedly including a contract for Lockheed Martin to structurally upgrade 35 of Turkey’s older Block 30 F-16 fighters to prolong their operational lifespan.

A F-16 plane belonging to the Turkish Air Forces is seen in the sky during the NATO Tiger Meet 2015 ... [+]

GETTY IMAGES
During this same period, Turkey began stockpiling spare parts for its F-16s out of fear it could face wide-ranging U.S. sanctions for its S-400 purchase.

Consequently, we may see a situation unfold wherein Turkey finds it increasingly difficult to maintain its large fleet of fourth-generation fighters whereas Greece, in stark contrast, successfully upgrades and enhances its fleet and attains more sophisticated fighters.

In that scenario, Turkish airpower would significantly lag behind that of its Greek neighbor and Ankara may find it increasingly difficult to contest its various maritime disputes with Athens militarily.

These Acquisitions And Upgrades Could Give Greece’s Air Force A Formidable Edge Over Turkey

Greek plans and proposals to acquire new warplanes and upgrade its existing fleet could see the Hellenic Air Force attain a very formidable qualitative edge over its Turkish rival by the end of the 2020s.

www.forbes.com

 

[crixus]

I think Turkey should have gone for F-35, then S-400, I think they can easily develop some good AD system, your Hisar system can be developed into a long-range system too.

 

[Azeri441]

Turkey definitely messed up by picking S-400 over 100+ F-35s, which with upgraded F-16s + TFX, would of made it the most capable Air Force in NATO after US, and most capable Air Force in the region after Russia.

However, with Turkish development in long range cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, Greek airfields would be priority targets in event of a war, Greece doesn't have such capability, while Turkey will be able to conduct long range strikes from sea, air and land.

This also doesn't include future stealth UCAVs with 1+ ton payload, Harop equivalent loitering munitions with 1000km range and etc.

even if Greece has superior aircraft in its inventory, such as Rafales, they won't be in very large quantities, Turkey can easily wipe out its entire aviation infrastructure.

 

[crixus]

Turkey definitely messed up by picking S-400 over 100+ F-35s, which with upgraded F-16s + TFX, would of made it the most capable Air Force in NATO after US, and most capable Air Force in the region after Russia.

However, with Turkish development in long range cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, Greek airfields would be priority targets in event of a war, Greece doesn't have such capability, while Turkey will be able to conduct long range strikes from sea, air and land.

This also doesn't include future stealth UCAVs with 1+ ton payload, Harop equivalent loitering munitions with 1000km range and etc.

even if Greece has superior aircraft in its inventory, such as Rafales, they won't be in very large quantities, Turkey can easily wipe out its entire aviation infrastructure.

Hopefully, Turkish planners are not thinking on your lines, and you cant think of a full-scale conflict between strong countries like Turkey and Greece ( as both are NATO members ), most probably skirmish will happen, and currently on one to one basis Frech planes look better then F-16s. Turkey has a really promising technological base. but thinking of opponent as weak as you have explained is the biggest blunder you can think of

 

[AzeriTank]

I think Turkey should have gone for F-35, then S-400, I think they can easily develop some good AD system, your Hisar system can be developed into a long-range system too.

long range means only adding a booster, its not a problem, like Aster 15 and aster 30. Turkey will make anti ballisti missile ready within 2 years. thats the most important. Turkey able to make drones with turbo jet engine(supersonic) and local air to air missiles with it. its not really a threat, but also bad that as local people dont know much and dont wanna feel offended by Greek, so Turkey will probably push Hurjet..

 

[ekemenirtu]

The arguments against the acquisition of the F-35 fighter jets are plentiful.

1. Due to the ALIS system, independent operation of the F-35 fighter jets would be difficult, if not impossible.

2. After the attempted coup against former PM/current President Erdogan, he had to hedge his bets. In doing so, he had to pay obesiance to Russian leader Vladimir Putin. After the shootdown of the Russian Air Force Su-24 near the Turkish-Syrian border, the acquisition of the S-400 missile defence system gains a more political significance.

3. The F-35 fighter jets can not be used to target any countries that the USA does not permit the Turkish Air Force to target. Therefore, potential targets such as Greece, "Israel"/Zionists regime, Saudi Arabian/MBS regime, Egyptian/Sisi regime, UAE/MBZ regime would be strictly off limits. Politically, that may be a very difficult decision to justify.

4. A proposed sale of 100 F-35A/B/other variants can not be materialized over a year, two years or even a decade. If the S-400 missile defence systems were to be not acquired in the interim, the Turkish Air Defence network over Turkish airspace and its immediate periphery would be severely deficient. That deficiency could possibly last over a decade if 100 F-35A/B/other variants were to be acquired over a period of a decade or longer.

I think Turkey should have gone for F-35, then S-400, I think they can easily develop some good AD system, your Hisar system can be developed into a long-range system too.

 

[ekemenirtu]

I am pretty certain that the stated objective, even if it were to be attained, would not be attained easily.

There was hardly any visible qualitative or quantitative superiority enjoyed by the Turkish Air Force over their Greek counterparts. With the ongoing upgrades to their F-16 fleets and the acquisition of Rafale and possibly F-35 fighter aircrafts, the Hellenic Air Force might be able to create a considerable lead in the airpower domain over their Turkish counterparts in the not so distant future.

Turkish cruise missiles and ballistic missiles have not yet gained operational status, to the best of my knowledge. If you have access to different information, feel free to share.

Moreover, Greece is large enough that like Sweden, Taiwan and many other countries, it could use its expressway network for fighter aircraft take off and landing operations in the absence of access to airfields.

We should not overestimate the destructive abilities of cruise missiles. A salvo of 59 reported cruise missiles fired at a single airbase could not take it out of operation for long. Apart from targeting innocent and unarmed civilians, the utility of firing a salvo of 100 or so cruise missiles against a (relatively) well armed nation-state is close to nil.

even if Greece has superior aircraft in its inventory, such as Rafales, they won't be in very large quantities, Turkey can easily wipe out its entire aviation infrastructure.