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Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

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Kathirz

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Zafer said:
I don't think losses of Russia will go that far. Russia will give up much of its influence on their so called backyard nations but they can hold the federation for decades longer.
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I'm very curious how they can maintain their Federation for decades... if Putin even didn't have enough determination for calling a general movilization.

A federation that has more than 120 ethnic groups, many with their own national territories, speaking some 100 languages.
A federation that according to an August 2017 survey, 45 % and 25 % of Russians respectively see poverty and inequality as two of the country's most pressing problems.

If we compare the number of billionaries per every US$ trillion of country total GDP we have:

-36 Russia
-19 US
-9 France

Comparing differences between regions/federal districs we have (varies significantly from year to year and source):

-Highest (Nenets Autonomous Okrug) 5.210.000 rubles
-Lowest (Ingushetia) 142.000 rubles.

Differences between Federal Districts:

-Highest (Ural) 945.710 rubles.
-Lowest (North Caucasian) 241.660 rubles.

In summary:

ru-regions-grp.jpg


If we speak about oligarchs:
Our results show that economic inequality among Russian regions, in addition to other factors, is closely related to oligarchic dominance. The analysis has shown that oligarchic presence has a highly significant effect on economic inequality in Russian regions.
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So Putin transitioning from the idea of a new democracy to it's own idea ruled by fear, bringing up or down Oligarchs at his will, pursuing journalists, jailing opponents or just killing them... having some international respect about their culture and fearing their weapons. All that "glue" will fall with an important defeat in a war started by him in Ukraine.

Having present everything was handled always by the political sphere from the western part of a very large land with 80.000 MB in oil reserves vs 8.000 MB Norway.
We should mix it now with:

-His army depleted and openly complaining about the political administration for terrible management.
-Regions which exaggeratedly contributed more with man power to Putin's war and a toilet is like having a modern iPhone.
-Hundreds of sanctions against them, being accused of killing thousands of civilians and destroying completely many cities, villages and key infrastructures.
-Their only "good tech" being trashed in the war as uncooked spaghetti, having a car industry from the eighties and stolen civilian planes with not good maintenance.
-Looking for an agreedment in a very weak moment to lower the amount of war compensations to be paid for decades to the winners of the war.
-The exterior image of Russian Federation, they cannot even participate in the olympic games with their own flag and being threated as jokers in United Nations, now facing the reality of the world who calls them gonocidals.
-All the propaganda falling with no clear political power to put again the fear/glue on the population.
-People tired of not getting very good job opportunities while oligarchs are fighting for the top positions on the world largest yatchs ranking, and corruption at the level of poor African countries.
-Being a dictatorship that, like almost any other, restricts the freedom of its citizens in exchange for a greater good, but has just lost an important war that also transcended its origins as a country.
-Oh and #Fellas making his first annual festival in Crimea too.

So my questions, after an hypothetical and significat RU defeat, right now are:

-What oligarchs from central district would do?
-What oligarchs from the regions with most natural reserves would do?
-What people from poorest regions would do?
-What "allies" or UN would do with regions who might want to take independence from the Federation?
-What if a region with nuclear weapons declares independence?
 
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Xenon54

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merzifonlu said:
Nope. He couldn't be any tougher. In order for it to boner (i mean tougher), blood must go to the "necessary organ".

Neither economic blood (exchange reserves and productive capacity) nor military blood (cannon fodders and war machines) remained in Russia.

Therefore, no one will care who will replace Putin. He will only have two agendas. a) Trying to pay minimal war reparations. b) To try to prevent the disintegration of the Russian Federation.
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The blood wont flow as long as Russia doesnt get supplied the blue pill (gas revenue) so sanctions must stay in place even if this winter will be tough.

This is the only right strategy in the long run, it is an opportunity to diversify energy sources and replace fossile dependant generation, otherwise europe will always stay russian hostage.
 
Xenon54

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merzifonlu said:
I give 5 years for Russian disintegration after end of this war.
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Very much possible, Russia does not have the population to uphold its vast territories, nuclear deterrance is the only thing holding back some nations, espacially in the east, from grabbing some juicy pastures of siberia and kuril islands.
 
Ecderha

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UkroTurk said:
⚡️The invaders on the right bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region are ready to lay down their arms and surrender

This was stated by the speaker of the Operational Command "South" Natalia Gumenyuk. According to her, the rashists are now looking for ways to surrender.
View attachment 47650
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It is normal Thing.................terrorist state soldiers do NOT have
-Supply
-Reinforcement men
-They are Locked...............Can not retreat..........all bridges and pontoons are destroyed
-They do not have Protection from AIR and Artillery is on other side over river WHICH have poor range Against Ukraine supplied by WEST
-Soldiers already KNOW that North front is Collapsed............Command left them behind


People have to Think .................What expecting to happened There ?

- russian terrorist state soldiers have to fight until they DIE ..........even if they do not have ammo supplied
-russian terrorist state soldiers can live ONLY if they Surrender

Pick one
 
Ecderha

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xenon54 said:
Very much possible, Russia does not have the population to uphold its vast territories, nuclear deterrance is the only thing holding back some nations, espacially in the east, from grabbing some juicy pastures of siberia and kuril islands.
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China do not care about russian Nukes............................
China is build-ed army to attack russian one day. You may ask Why?
russians take China territory in 50s and in 60s China attacked russian and partially take own territory from russia.
China keep said and keep repeating that russian MUST return taken China's territory

ussr and russia had power back then......................Today All world saw what happened with terrorist state russia.........Epic fail......Epic degraded people by putins dictator and his mafia circles

All countries suffered by russians NOW they are Thinking When is proper moment to attack russia and GET BACK OWN Territory taken by terrorist state russia
 
Ecderha

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Bogeyman said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569404545305804800
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Do you People here know HOW all ex russian Dictators were Taken Down?

I will give you hint ...........All of them were SEND to so called far away resting Villa ............ and after few days .............dictator just accept the END.............Change of power happend<- this is lucky option..........


For putin dictator used russia for 30+ years ...........He Order so many Evil things which compare only With Stalin..........
I mean putin can NOT control mafia circle anymore.....................I guest putin mafia circle are preparing to Take him down.........kill him
 
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Jagdflieger said:
Any real military expert will know that without a specific military component - Ukraine will never be able to win that war. So this whole thing is just a show.
Played out on the backs of Ukrainian civilians and Ukraine soldiers more or less dying for nothing.

There is no way for any army to beat or defeat an adversary such as Russia without that specific component. Which would take at least 2 years to take shape, cost around US$ 30-35 billion. As long NATO and Ukraine do not address this specific military component accordingly, it remains as I stated - just a show and hoping for a miracle to happen in the Kremlin.

That specific military component is called: AIR-FORCE
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Yeah, I remember that post and that magic russian gamechanger called AIR FORCE. ;) and adversary SUCH AS RUSSIA
 
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