I'm very curious how they can maintain their Federation for decades... if Putin even didn't have enough determination for calling a general movilization.
A federation that has more than 120 ethnic groups, many with their own national territories, speaking some 100 languages.
A federation that according to an August 2017 survey, 45 % and 25 % of Russians respectively see poverty and inequality as two of the country's most pressing problems.
If we compare the number of
billionaries per every US$ trillion of country total GDP we have:
-36 Russia
-19 US
-9 France
Comparing differences between regions/federal districs we have (varies significantly from year to year and source):
-
Highest (Nenets Autonomous Okrug) 5.210.000 rubles
-
Lowest (Ingushetia) 142.000 rubles.
Differences between
Federal Districts:
-Highest (Ural) 945.710 rubles.
-Lowest (North Caucasian) 241.660 rubles.
In summary:
View attachment 47651
If we speak about
oligarchs:
So Putin transitioning from the idea of a new democracy to it's own idea ruled by fear, bringing up or down Oligarchs at his will, pursuing journalists, jailing opponents or just killing them... having some international respect about their culture and fearing their weapons. All that "glue" will fall with an important defeat in a war started by him in Ukraine.
Having present everything was handled always by the political sphere from the western part of a very large land with 80.000 MB in oil reserves vs 8.000 MB Norway.
We should mix it now with:
-His army depleted and openly complaining about the political administration for terrible management.
-Regions which exaggeratedly contributed more with man power to Putin's war and a toilet is like having a modern iPhone.
-Hundreds of sanctions against them, being accused of killing thousands of civilians and destroying completely many cities, villages and key infrastructures.
-Their only "good tech" being trashed in the war as uncooked spaghetti, having a car industry from the eighties and stolen civilian planes with not good maintenance.
-Looking for an agreedment in a very weak moment to lower the amount of war compensations to be paid for decades to the winners of the war.
-The exterior image of Russian Federation, they cannot even participate in the olympic games with their own flag and being threated as jokers in United Nations, now facing the reality of the world who calls them gonocidals.
-All the propaganda falling with no clear political power to put again the fear/glue on the population.
-People tired of not getting very good job opportunities while oligarchs are fighting for the top positions on the world largest yatchs ranking, and corruption at the level of poor African countries.
-Being a dictatorship that, like almost any other, restricts the freedom of its citizens in exchange for a greater good, but has just lost an important war that also transcended its origins as a country.
-Oh and #Fellas making his first annual festival in Crimea too.
So my questions, after an hypothetical and significat RU defeat, right now are:
-What oligarchs from central district would do?
-What oligarchs from the regions with most natural reserves would do?
-What people from poorest regions would do?
-What "allies" or UN would do with regions who might want to take independence from the Federation?
-What if a region with nuclear weapons declares independence?
The United States, Britain, Canada, Poland, Australia, Turkey and the EU countries will be invited to become participants as guarantors for Ukraine;
