Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Gary]

Ukrainian hold on Staromaiorske didn't even last a year.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1800131953548730442

 

[Gary]

Another one. Novoaleksandrivka is now

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1800101801276096980

 

[Gary]

I'm not following European politics, but is this true? What will be the consequences if right wing AfD has the upper hand to School and his likes?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1799908026926670121

 

[Bogeyman]

I'm not following European politics, but is this true? What will be the consequences if right wing AfD has the upper hand to School and his likes?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1799908026926670121

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1799897877142974917

The most alarming distribution of votes is among 17 to 24-year-old voters who voted for the right-wing party AfD. This makes the STRONGEST party with CDU/CSU.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1799890382320189625

 

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1799897877142974917

The most alarming distribution of votes is among 17 to 24-year-old voters who voted for the right-wing party AfD. This makes the STRONGEST party with CDU/CSU.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1799890382320189625

Hmm, I'm a complete moron when it comes to Germany's internal politics, what can I deduct from this?

I know SPD is Scholz party, which from the look of it is antagonistic towards Russia. And CDU used to be friendly with Russia back when Merkel was in power.

Are we going to see a shift in the German approach to Russia due to CDU and AfD getting on top?

 

[Bogeyman]

Hmm, I'm a complete moron when it comes to Germany's internal politics, what can I deduct from this?

I know SPD is Scholz party, which from the look of it is antagonistic towards Russia. And CDU used to be friendly with Russia back when Merkel was in power.

Are we going to see a shift in the German approach to Russia due to CDU and AfD getting on top?

I don't know about that. But there is a high probability that we will see an early election in Germany soon.

 

[UkroTurk]

The Russian invaders lost 1.5 million tons of oil and oil products.



The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed the defeat of the Novoshakhtinsky oil refinery, which is located in the Rostov region of the Russian Federation.

 

[contricusc]

I know SPD is Scholz party, which from the look of it is antagonistic towards Russia. And CDU used to be friendly with Russia back when Merkel was in power.

Are we going to see a shift in the German approach to Russia due to CDU and AfD getting on top?

CDU is the party of Ursula Von der Leyen, who is very pro-Ukraine.

Also, the leader of the party, Friedrich Merz is a staunch supporter of a strong EU allied with the US and is not a friend of Russia. As for the war, here is an excerpt from Wikipedia: “Following the start of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Merz adopted strong pro-Ukrainian and anti-Russian positions, urging Chancellor Olaf Scholz to supply Ukraine with weapons and personally travelling to Kyiv in May to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.”

So the strongest party in Germany is more hawkish than Scholtz when it comes to helping Ukraine.

I know many in the pro-Putin camp are hoping for the so-called “far right” to win in the EU, because they think it will benefit Putin, but so far the populists are still far from being able to take power, and even if they will become the dominant players in European politics in the future, their stance on Russia will shift to a more hawkish one, because right wingers are always more tough when it comes to defence and more aggressive in foreign policy.

The last time a “far right” politician was leading in Germany, their tanks almost reached Moscow. The fact that Putin cheers for the European “far right” shows just how decoupled from reality he is.

 

[Lordimperator]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1799731913600458978

 

[Gary]

More land grab

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1800491237570728410

 

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1800526421431128468

 

[Soldier30]

Ghost Rider of Russia, evacuation of a burning MTLB transport vehicle in Ukraine. Like a ghost rider, this is how one can characterize the movement of a burning Russian military transporter MTLB in the Kharkov region. According to a serviceman with the call sign Grisha, a Ukrainian FPV drone hit the combat vehicle, after which a fire started inside it. The driver decided to save the car, he landed troops and evacuated the burning MTLB to the unit. Despite the fire, MTLB did not lose speed.

 

[Relic]

The Russians are losing some expensive assets over the last two days. These aircraft and air defense systems are extremely expensive to replace and it takes considerable lead time.

- Russian media TASS is reporting that a SU-34 fighter/bomber crashed in North Ossetia due to a technical issue. The crew was killed in the crash according to the report linked below.

- Ukrainians shot down a Russian SU-25 in using MANPADS.

- Ukrainian Special Forces located and Eliminated a Russian BUK-M2 air defense system using a Switchblade Kamikaze drone.

- A Ukrainian GMLRS strike from a HIMARS in the Luhansk region completely destroyed a Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1800407279512010917

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1800483773034975599

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1800576265684169164

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1800550112864956477

 

[Woland]

A couple Patriot updates today:
- Biden has approved the transfer of an additional Patriot system for Ukraine, according to the NYT
- Scholz announced the transfer of Germany's 3rd Patriot system to Ukraine in the coming weeks
- On April 17, Netherlands' Mark Rutte's announced that he is looking to compile a Patriot system for Ukraine together with other countries. Today Rutte announced that NL will provide "a radar and three launch systems for this purpose"

 

[Gary]

The Russians are losing some expensive assets over the last two days. These aircraft and air defense systems are extremely expensive to replace and it takes considerable lead time.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1800550112864956477

Consider the complex air defense the RuAF faces, their loss have been particularly low. Like I've had highlighted before, Russia actually produce more combat jets than it looses.

So there's no such thing as " Extremely expensive to replace and takes considerable lead time"

Here's Lukashenko visiting an almost ready Su-30SM and Yak-130.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1798237924556988821

UAC will also likely deliver the next batch of Su-57M with AL-51 engine in a few months. So Russia doesn't actually need to worry about Running low on jets.

 

[Relic]

The European Union has officially agreed to send the first tranche of Russian frozen asset money to Ukraine, in July (next month). The $1.6 Billion usd in funds is earmarked 90% for defense and 10% for humanitarian needs.

Before anybody laughs off $1.6 Billion usd as inconsequential, here isnsome food for thought. $1.6 Billion usd could buy the following for example:

1 Complete PAC 3 Patriot Battery with 150 additional PAC 3 MSE Missiles.

OR

355 CAESAR 155mm howitzers

OR

533 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles

OR

450,000 155mm artillery shells

Point being, when you're able to spend that much money directly on defense needs, it can purchase a lot. Hell, it's enough money to pay 500,000 members if the Ukrainian military (essentially the entire military) for 4+ months.

Look for the EU to release a second tranche of funds (similar amount) procured from Russian assets, towards the end of this year.

 

[Relic]

Italy confirmed today that they will send Ukraine $150.4 million usd to help rebuild their energy infrastructure. They also confirmed that they will send an additional SAMP/T air defense system, with ASTER 30 missiles. Ukrainians are in France right now learning to use the SAMP/T system, which will be the second one Ukraine owns, after Franch sent them one previously. SAMPT/T performs very similarly to Patriot.

Таяні на конференції в Берліні анонсував нову допомогу Україні від Італії

За словами Антоніо Таяні, Італія готова не тільки до військової допомоги Україні, а й надавати підтримку в інших секторах

www.radiosvoboda.org

 

[Relic]

The German led initiative is sending 100 additional PAC 2 Patriot Missiles to Ukraine. 32 of the missiles arrived in Ukraine last week. 68 additional missiles will arrive in the coming weeks. The missiles will come from Germany , Norway , The Netherlands and Denmark , and are partially being paid for by Canada and Belgium , who added funds to the iniative to offset costs.

Germany will also deliver an undisclosed number of additional Gepard air defense systems in the coming weeks, as well as an additional IRIS-T SLM air defense system.

Germany has already delivered 52 Gepard aid defense systems to Ukraine, 3 IRIS-T SLM Systems and 1 IRIS-T SLS system. They've also delivered 2 Skynex air defense systems and 2 Patriot air defense batteries..Per their Government website Germany is planning on delivering 15 additional Gepard Systems, 9 IRIS-T SLM and 11 IRIS-T SLS systems, 2 Skynex air defense systems and 1 additional Patriot air defense battery.

Ukraine to receive additional 68 Patriot missiles from German-led initiative, German defense minister says

Berlin will send an additional 68 Patriot missiles to Ukraine, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said during a joint press conference with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Germany, on June 11.

kyivindependent.com

Military support for Ukraine | Federal Government

War in Ukraine: This list provides an overview of Germany’s lethal and non-lethal military support for Ukraine.

www.bundesregierung.de

 

[Gary]

Ukro Su-25 taken out while chilling in Tarmac

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1800609114193854940

 

[Relic]

A couple Patriot updates today:
- Biden has approved the transfer of an additional Patriot system for Ukraine, according to the NYT
- Scholz announced the transfer of Germany's 3rd Patriot system to Ukraine in the coming weeks
- On April 17, Netherlands' Mark Rutte's announced that he is looking to compile a Patriot system for Ukraine together with other countries. Today Rutte announced that NL will provide "a radar and three launch systems for this purpose"

Per the New York Times, the newly announced Patriot Air Defense Battery will come directly from Poland, where it was protecting U.S. troops that were deployed there, but who are rotating out of the region. What's important about that development is that due to the proximity to Ukraine, the battery is expected to arrive in Ukraine in the coming days. The surge of Western air defense to the region is not coincidental. Ukraine's first F-16s are slated to arrive in the next 3-4 weeks and layered air defense will be extremely important to protecting them on the ground.

Ukraine would be really smart to reach out to Israel and buy the PAC 2 Patriot systems (and corresponding missiles) that Israel is retiring in the next couple months. They'd be extremely helpful for Ukraine and Israel could use the funds to buy more of their new air defense platforms.

Ukraine will have the following tier 1 air defense systems by the end of June:

2x PAC 3 Patriot Batteries
3x PAC 2 Patriot Batteries
1x PAC 2 Battery
1x SAMP/T Battery
1x SAMP/T Battery

Note: the Battery being assembled by the Netherlands with components from Germany, Romania and Sweden has not been formally announced. It's in the works, but not all countries have agreed on a delivery timeline yet.

Ukraine said that they needed 7 Patriot Batteries (or equivalent) to defend the country. 5 to operate in fixed locations and two that could roam closer to the front, threatening Russian CAS and ambushing aircraft like they did the Russian AWACS earlier this year. Ukraine will soon have 8 tier 1 batteries at its disposal and both Germany and USA have invested in hundreds of missiles that will arrive in Ukraine over the next year. PAC 3 MSE in the USA and PAC 2 GEM-T missiles in Germany and Japan are at full rate production and production expansion is ongoing.

Ukraine's air defense is slowly, but surely, starting to become really dense and layered. By mid 2025 Ukraine is expected to have the following.

Long Range (Tier 1)
2x Patriot PAC 3 Battery
4x Patriot PAC 2 Battery
2x SAMP/T Battery

Medium Range (Tier 2)
12x IRIS-T SLM Battery
15x NASAMS Battery
6+ HAWK Batteries
2x Crotale NG Batteries
2x Spada Systems

Short Range (Tier 3)
12x IRIS-T SLS
4x Skynex
85x Gepard / Cheetah
30+ FrankenSAM
14x Vampire (Counter UAV)
12x Avenger (Stinger based)
1x Terrahawk Paladin Britain
6+ Supacat (ASRAAM based)
4+ Stormer (Starstreak based)
6+ RBS-70

Note: Ukraine will also continue to field what's left of its Soviet air defense systems, as well as those donated by the likes of Poland , Czech Republic and Slovakia . It's hard to quantify how many of those systems are currently in use, however, and it's even harder to determine how many missiles they have left for those non-Western systems.