Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Spitfire9]

Gripen reportedly 'downs' 3 out of 4 pursuing block 50 F-16 and Typhoon in Baltic exercise. Just an example of a skilled pilot's tactics winning out?

The linked video promotes procurement of Gripen E by Canada but some observations and points made also suggest it will provide good service to Ukraine. I foresee its main benefit being bringing Meteor to the fight, so forcing Russian aircraft with glide bombs to stand off further when releasing their weapons.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2093640107664216110

NUCLEAR ALERT — RUSSIA REPORTEDLY MOVES STATE FLEET TOWARD SIBERIA FOR THE SECOND TIME IN TWO DAYS

Such dispersal measures have historically been associated with periods of heightened tension, intended to preserve government and military continuity in the event of a major strategic crisis. What makes the current movement particularly notable is the reported repetition: for the first time, the deployment is occurring on two consecutive days.

 

[Fatman17]

At least 37 people were killed after a Russian drone attack ‌on a Kyiv-area ammunition depot sparked a detonation, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday, vowing to punish suspected negligence in the second such incident in two months.

The deadliest Russian strike in the Kyiv area this year came as Moscow's air attacks on the Ukrainian capital and surrounding region dragged into a third straight day, killing residents, damaging homes and derailing daily life https://reut.rs/3UI1HqQ

 

[Fatman17]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2093717414663889094

 

[Spitfire9]

Putin's rule is increasingly troubled by Russia's failure to win its war with Ukraine. Until recently the conflict did not have a discernable effect on 'ordinary Russians'. However, it has evolved into a conflict causing great inconvenience - fuel shortages, disruption to retail trade and distribution, disruption to banking, disruption to internet access, houses and apartments being damaged and destroyed in Ukrainian drone attacks.

In addition to supplying Ukraine with many weapons and financial support, UK and France have recently given Ukraine the blueprints for SCALP/Storm Shadow so Ukraine can produce them. UK is also building drones for use by Ukraine against Russia.

Russia's withdrawal of its ambassador from London gives rise to fears of Russia taking hostile action against the UK in the near future.

As a developed economy, one of the most damaging actions Russia could take against UK interests would be to sabotage under sea communication and energy links connecting the UK to other countries. In the same way that Ukraine cannot stop Russian ballistic missiles, the UK cannot stop Russian sabotage to undersea cables.

Will Putin escalate by taking action in the manner described? Or escalate cyber warfare against the UK? Or arrange deniable acts of sabotage on UK soil?

 

[Fatman17]

Putin's rule is increasingly troubled by Russia's failure to win its war with Ukraine. Until recently the conflict did not have a discernable effect on 'ordinary Russians'. However, it has evolved into a conflict causing great inconvenience - fuel shortages, disruption to retail trade and distribution, disruption to banking, disruption to internet access, houses and apartments being damaged and destroyed in Ukrainian drone attacks.

In addition to supplying Ukraine with many weapons and financial support, UK and France have recently given Ukraine the blueprints for SCALP/Storm Shadow so Ukraine can produce them. UK is also building drones for use by Ukraine against Russia.

Russia's withdrawal of its ambassador from London gives rise to fears of Russia taking hostile action against the UK in the near future.

As a developed economy, one of the most damaging actions Russia could take against UK interests would be to sabotage under sea communication and energy links connecting the UK to other countries. In the same way that Ukraine cannot stop Russian ballistic missiles, the UK cannot stop Russian sabotage to undersea cables.

Will Putin escalate by taking action in the manner described? Or escalate cyber warfare against the UK? Or arrange deniable acts of sabotage on UK soil?

Nato has apparently concluded that there is no threat to the alliance countries

 

[Soldier30]

Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers struck Ukrainian targets in Odesa using FAB aerial bombs equipped with UMPK modules for the first time. Geran jet-powered drones, Banderol missiles, and Kalibr missiles were also employed. Videos of the attacks were filmed by Odesa residents.

 

[Spitfire9]

Nato has apparently concluded that there is no threat to the alliance countries

It looks like Russia has started on the sabotage option.

 

[Spitfire9]

Putin Reportedly Fears That He’ll Be Hanged If He Loses Ukraine War​

​

Putin Reportedly Fears That He’ll Be Hanged If He Loses Ukraine War

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly fears that ending the war in Ukraine without securing a victory could cost him his life, with Kremlin insiders claiming he has warned that he could be “hanged” if Russia fails to achieve its objectives.The explosive claim was reported by the Economist...

www.dailywire.com

If true, that is a compelling incentive not to stop the war until Russia has at least taken the rest of the Donbas. Without at a minimum doing that, Putin cannot sell the idea that he won the war, can he?

 

[Soldier30]

On the night of September 1, the Russian army launched a massive strike on targets in Kyiv using Iskander-M cluster missiles. The video was filmed by local residents; the strike reportedly targeted Ukrainian commercial warehouses.

 

[Spitfire9]

According to this report, Putin admits that Ukrainian strikes against Sea of Azov and Black Sea ports have dramatically reduced Russian grain exports with a reduction to GDP of about 1%. The reporter mentions a fall of at least 80% in grain exports compared to 2025.

Putin admits Ukrainian strikes cost 1% of Russia's GDP

In a rare admission, Vladimir Putin has acknowledged the economic impact of recent Ukrainian attacks. The Russian president says the past 40 days of drone an...

www.youtube.com

I guess that the fall in Russian grain sales combined with the Wildberries and Ozon strikes has tipped the Russian economy as a whole (military and civil) into negative growth. The official forecast was for economic growth of 0%-1.0% in 2026, later narrowed to around 0.4%. That was before Ukraine's 40 day drone attack campaign.

There are signs that the Russian economy is moving from stagnation to contraction and recession. None of those scenarios is conducive to increasing government tax revenues, much needed to help finance government spending.

I guess that military production reached full capacity some time ago - hence the fall from 4% growth in 2023 and 2024 as spare capacity was used up to 1% growth in 2025.

All in all, Russia's economic and financial situation appears to continue to deteriorate due to the war.

 

[Fatman17]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2096614462660714926

 

[Fatman17]

It seems that the US has prepared a proposal for Russia involving Ukraine's surrender. It would include Ukrainian loss of parts of the Donbass, Ukrainian neutrality and a limited army, among other things.

The US would be moving urgently due to two circumstances.

The first is that Russia is preparing a major autumn offensive on several Ukrainian fronts and the US wants to avoid greater territorial losses for Ukraine.
There is a possibility that Russia recovers Odesa and Ukraine becomes a landlocked country, as many of us said in 2022 just a few weeks after the start of the war, and as the map shows.

The second is a US attempt at a trade-off, temporarily satisfying Russia in Ukraine so that Russia sets aside Iran and thus the US makes some progress in its war in West Asia.

I find it hard to believe that this agreement could go forward. Zelensky cannot accept territorial losses; he should be removed from the board beforehand and someone found in the Ukrainian leadership who offers to sign a defeat that would put their life at risk.

I also find it hard to believe that in Russia they would accept that the US and NATO will respect any kind of agreement, with the entire history of decades of Western breaches, especially in the three years. Likewise, I would find it strange that Russia would give up recovering Russian cities like Odessa or Kharkov.
www.x.com
@lobatobdan

 

[Spitfire9]

Apart from Ukraine not agreeing to give up massive amounts of territory still under its control, I doubt that Ukraine would ever agree to being demilitarised.

The plan is a non-starter IMO. I think the European countries would increase support to Ukraine and urge it to continue resisting rather than accept defeat as Russia and perhaps the US propose. This plan would give Russia the option to occupy the rest of Ukraine whenever it chose to and then Moldova.

In any event, Russia is not doing so well militarily (apart from being able to strike Ukraine with ballistic and high speed missiles) and is doing very badly both financially and economically. Russia is really not in a position to dictate harsh peace terms.