USA predicts war with China in 2025

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US General Michael Minihan predicts war with China could begin in 2025.


As China continues to grow its military, the chance of a war is ever more likely. China's defence budget is growing, sitting at more than $200 billion USD. However this number doesn't include the whole picture. R&D, branches such as the coast guard, paramilitary, and the space program aren't included in this budget. Furthermore, it was predicted that in 2017 that the true budget was 87% of America's budget. It is likely even higher now. This is funding a massive overhaul of the Chinese military.

My opinion: China doesn't need to even match the US military. It only needs enough power to be able to win a conflict in the South China Sea. However China would need to quickly fight and win, otherwise it could find itself outmatched in a protracted conflict. It would need to swiftly knock out the US Navy and US air assets in order to embarrass the USA and make it clear that it would be too costly to retaliate. Otherwise China would not only suffer due to Quad, but almost the entire world would be against it. It would be a long, slow losing battle if it can't launch a winning blow early on. It would be like a repeat of the Ukraine war, except the whole world would be against it.

If China launches a spectacular shock and awe attack which cripples the entire US fleet in the area, and also somehow defeats the US airforce in the region, but simultaneously makes it clear that it doesn't want war with India, Japan and Korea, then it would completely change the status quo. The USA would be forced to leave and the pure embarrassment would be enough to keep the US away for good. HOWEVER, it is highly unlikely that the USA would allow that to happen, it's more of a dream scenario for China.
 

Bogeyman 

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US General Michael Minihan predicts war with China could begin in 2025.


As China continues to grow its military, the chance of a war is ever more likely. China's defence budget is growing, sitting at more than $200 billion USD. However this number doesn't include the whole picture. R&D, branches such as the coast guard, paramilitary, and the space program aren't included in this budget. Furthermore, it was predicted that in 2017 that the true budget was 87% of America's budget. It is likely even higher now. This is funding a massive overhaul of the Chinese military.

My opinion: China doesn't need to even match the US military. It only needs enough power to be able to win a conflict in the South China Sea. However China would need to quickly fight and win, otherwise it could find itself outmatched in a protracted conflict. It would need to swiftly knock out the US Navy and US air assets in order to embarrass the USA and make it clear that it would be too costly to retaliate. Otherwise China would not only suffer due to Quad, but almost the entire world would be against it. It would be a long, slow losing battle if it can't launch a winning blow early on. It would be like a repeat of the Ukraine war, except the whole world would be against it.

If China launches a spectacular shock and awe attack which cripples the entire US fleet in the area, and also somehow defeats the US airforce in the region, but simultaneously makes it clear that it doesn't want war with India, Japan and Korea, then it would completely change the status quo. The USA would be forced to leave and the pure embarrassment would be enough to keep the US away for good. HOWEVER, it is highly unlikely that the USA would allow that to happen, it's more of a dream scenario for China.
The matter is not that simple. Not a world war, even a war on the scale of Ukraine in which the West and the countries of the region do not directly participate is enough to end the world economy. Superpowers fighting each other creates a dead-end cycle where even the winner goes bankrupt.

In World War II, the USA got away easily because the world economy had exhausted zero except the USA. The economy was already bad. The USA was self-sufficient. It was very easy to produce in factories. Complex systems such as microelectronics were not needed.
At that time, the US economy was not too dependent on the petro dollar order. Today, in the USA, the state is burdened with a debt that it cannot afford. And spread this debt over time. Then they just print money. If there is no return for the money they print, how will they pay their debts? How will they finance the war if they cannot pay their debts?

I say this purely for a conventional war. Even a war without the use of nuclear weapons will cause all investments in the world to stop, oil and natural gas prices will go crazy.

Therefore, no one can rule their own country through democratic elections anymore. You can't even imagine the apocalypse this will create. The understanding of European countries that we have money, so we can buy gas, oil and grain as we want, ends. This means that in European countries alone, tens of millions of people die of hunger, cold and emerging epidemics. Now think about the rest of the world.

Again in China, several hundred million people die either from starvation or from epidemics. I can imagine the Chinese sending their own people to death as cannon fodder.

This is the most positive scenario.
 
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Bogeyman 

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The drug shortage in Europe does not end
30.01.2023



The result of the study conducted by the European Union (EU) Pharmacy Group (PGEU) with pharmacies in 29 countries, including EU countries, as well as Turkey, Norway, Kosovo and North Macedonia, for the period of 14 November-31 December, has been published.

Accordingly, more than 600 drugs are scarce in one-quarter of these countries, and about 300 drugs in one-fifth. Drug shortages in pharmacies in three quarters of European countries are much worse than they were a year ago.

The data of the competent authorities of European countries on health and medicine also support the notifications of pharmacists.

For example, it was stated that there are problems in the supply of approximately 300 drugs in Belgium, 408 drugs in Germany and more than 600 drugs in Austria. In Italy, it was reported that the situation was more dire and that more than 3,000 drugs, some of which were different drugs with the same formula, were very difficult to find.

It was stated that the most difficult drugs to be obtained in pharmacies across Europe are especially amoxicillin group antibiotics used in the treatment of respiratory tract infections, cough syrups used in the treatment of pediatric diseases, paracetamol in syrup form and some blood pressure drugs.

The reason for the drug problem is shown as the decrease in supply despite the increasing demand.

It is stated that seasonal infections, especially influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), started early and progressed stronger than normal in European countries this year, and throat infection caused by Strep A is unusually common in children.

Experts see the inability of their immune systems to strengthen as the reason for increasing diseases this winter, as various viruses that are normally taken in daily life cannot be taken due to the long shutdowns in the Kovid-19 epidemic. It is stated that pharmaceutical manufacturers are also unprepared for the high demand in the face of increasing infections, and that the energy crisis in Europe and the rising raw material prices have affected production.

Difficulty continues to find some drugs in Greece and Italy
02.02.2023


According to pharmacists in Greece and Italy, the reason for the pharmaceutical crisis in Europe is that countries such as China and India, where the raw materials of medicines are produced, restrict the sale of products by considering the needs of their own people, and the increase in the price as well as the distribution costs of the Russia-Ukraine War play a role.

Greek Attiki Region Pharmacists Association President Konstandinos Lurandos and Italian Pharmacists Federation President Andrea Mandelli evaluated the problem of drug supply in European countries for a while, especially antibiotics, cough syrup for children, fever reducers and blood pressure medications to the AA correspondent.

"Without raw material, medicine cannot be produced"

Stating that the main problem in drug supply in Europe is the shortage of raw materials, Lurandos noted that the exports made in Greece due to the low drug prices in the country caused a major problem in supply.

Lurandos said that the main reason for the drug shortage in Europe is the difficulties in finding raw materials such as paracetamol and amoxycillin. He continued, "Without raw materials, medicine cannot be produced. These raw materials are produced in India and China. The governments of these countries have frozen the sale of certain quantities for the needs of their own populations." he said.

Explaining that the decrease in the amount of raw materials coming from these countries to Europe restricts the production of drugs in Europe, Lurandos emphasized that there are more problems in Greece than in Europe in this regard.

Lurandos explained the reason for the trouble in Greece with the following words:

"Pharmaceuticals come to Greece, but drugs do not stay in Greece because drug prices are low here. Some pharmaceutical warehouses buy these drugs and export them double or triple to make more profit."

Noting that the government's measures to restrict the export of pharmaceuticals are also insufficient, Lurandos said that providing control in order not to send the drugs in the country abroad could be a solution.

Pointing out that the concern caused by the problem in drug supply has caused an increase in the demand for drugs, Lurandos said, "People are trying to keep the drugs they may need later. Someone else may need that drug at that moment and may not find it. This is wrong. We have said many times, we should not store drugs. " said.

Although the shortage of drugs weakens in Italy, the difficulty in finding some products continues


Regarding the situation in the country, President of the Italian Pharmacists Federation Mandelli said, "The drug shortage has weakened to a great extent, but the difficulty in finding some products continues. The trouble experienced during the Christmas period has been alleviated as of 5-6 days ago." he said.

Mandelli stated that the drugs began to be supplied gradually, and that a solution was sought with the discovery of equivalent or alternative drugs from the beginning of the drug shortage.

Stating that the drug shortage affecting the public is experienced during the New Year's Eve, in products such as cortisone or steroid nasal spray, cough syrup and pediatric antibiotics, Mandelli said, "But the situation is under control now. The sought-after drug or its equivalent is available." used the phrase.

Mandelli noted that there is a shortage of drugs across Europe, and one of the reasons for this is that the epidemic seriously affected the public in China, where the raw materials of drugs are produced.

Drawing attention to the role played by the lack of raw materials in the drug shortage, Mandelli emphasized that the increase in prices, as well as the distribution costs of the Russia-Ukraine War, were also effective in the problem.

Mandelli underlined that the situation in Italy is slowly returning to normal.

In Italy, especially during the New Year's Eve, there were difficulties in finding drugs for the treatment of Kovid-19 and flu, as well as antipyretic and pain relievers.

Now imagine that a supply chain shortage of medicament raw materials could even kill people from the flu in Europe.

How will you keep countries or the defense industry afloat in a scenario where a Covid-19-like epidemic returns? Do not forget that countries considering the use of nuclear weapons may use biological weapons and develop gene-driven viruses to prevent their effects from hitting their own countries.
 

Heartbang

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How will you keep countries or the defense industry afloat in a scenario where a Covid-19-like epidemic returns? Do not forget that countries considering the use of nuclear weapons may use biological weapons and develop gene-driven viruses to prevent their effects from hitting their own countries.
Pfft, even those are quite high effort.
One can simply detonate a nuke high above the enemy and get them to return to monke.
us-high-altitude-emp.jpg
 

contricusc

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If China launches a spectacular shock and awe attack which cripples the entire US fleet in the area, and also somehow defeats the US airforce in the region, but simultaneously makes it clear that it doesn't want war with India, Japan and Korea, then it would completely change the status quo. The USA would be forced to leave and the pure embarrassment would be enough to keep the US away for good. HOWEVER, it is highly unlikely that the USA would allow that to happen, it's more of a dream scenario for China.

That’s impossible. China cannot attack by surprise, because the US has satellites and is watching every move. If they would try such an attack, it would be Pearl Harbour all over again, and the war will end in the same way it ended for the Japanese…
 

Zafer

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I shared a series on that subject. I think you'd better check it out.
A Faraday cage of some sorts, like a crate is needed to protect electronics like cell phones and computers from frying. An aluminium or steel crate with a dielectric lining inside does the job. Probably a valuables safe will do the job as well.
 

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