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What does Nawaz Sharif want?
HE took his time. He held his silence. He let suspense build. Now he has spoken. But words are the outward manifestations of his thoughts. His thoughts have sculpted his plans. His plans have begun to unfold on the ground. The ground is bracing for battle. The battle has many fronts.
Is the other side ready?
To win, it is critically important to know your opponent’s strength and weaknesses. The other side should acknowledge, for instance, that no one in today’s politics knows the Pakistani system better than Nawaz Sharif. He is a product of this system and he has worked it and governed it for more than three decades. He knows what makes this system tick. He is aware of how the establishment works, how the politician thinks and how the bureaucracy moves. He has a feel for the constituency and a sense of the electable; he understands the limits of political power and the limitations of being out of it; and he knows the gains of cooperation versus the pains of confrontation.
Situate this fact in the post-MPC political matrix. Nawaz Sharif has taken a decision: he will take the fight to the other side. We are now in win-lose territory. By venturing back into this territory, Nawaz has acknowledged that he is willing to take on the odds stacked against him. These are heavy odds. He is physically away from the battleground; his team is under constant threat of arrests and the entire system — government, judiciary and establishment — is arrayed against him for political, legal and other reasons. He is a wanted man and a fugitive from law. It is, by all standards, an unequal fight.
Nawaz is a rational player. He has chosen the path of confrontation as a rational act that adds up despite the risks entailed. To reach this conclusion, he has weighed in multiple factors. In fact, he has calculated all options and projected counter-options that are based on his deep knowledge of the system. In other words, he has war-gamed the situation.
But he is a rational actor and there must be some method in this ‘madness’. So he has fired the first shot after having war-gamed the counter shot from the other side. He will then fire his second shot and he has also war-gamed the counter shot to the second shot. He wants to climb up the escalatory ladder because he has war-gamed that for his every move, the other side has to retaliate with a higher calibre. Those in control must not be seen to lose an ounce of control and to ensure this they have to assert control every time someone challenges this control. Climbing up the escalatory ladder suits Nawaz.
So is he baiting the other side?
The three speeches are deliberately provocative. He is poking the other side in the eye. Will they take a swing? They could desist from doing so. But this may be seen as a sign of weakness, or indecision, or lack of options. And if they retaliate? Arrests, cases, raids, hearings — if all these and much more suddenly start to happen onto Nawaz’s team on the ground, it might escalate matters, which is what Nawaz has war-gamed already. Clever.
HE took his time. He held his silence. He let suspense build. Now he has spoken. But words are the outward manifestations of his thoughts. His thoughts have sculpted his plans. His plans have begun to unfold on the ground. The ground is bracing for battle. The battle has many fronts.
Is the other side ready?
To win, it is critically important to know your opponent’s strength and weaknesses. The other side should acknowledge, for instance, that no one in today’s politics knows the Pakistani system better than Nawaz Sharif. He is a product of this system and he has worked it and governed it for more than three decades. He knows what makes this system tick. He is aware of how the establishment works, how the politician thinks and how the bureaucracy moves. He has a feel for the constituency and a sense of the electable; he understands the limits of political power and the limitations of being out of it; and he knows the gains of cooperation versus the pains of confrontation.
Situate this fact in the post-MPC political matrix. Nawaz Sharif has taken a decision: he will take the fight to the other side. We are now in win-lose territory. By venturing back into this territory, Nawaz has acknowledged that he is willing to take on the odds stacked against him. These are heavy odds. He is physically away from the battleground; his team is under constant threat of arrests and the entire system — government, judiciary and establishment — is arrayed against him for political, legal and other reasons. He is a wanted man and a fugitive from law. It is, by all standards, an unequal fight.
Nawaz is a rational player. He has chosen the path of confrontation as a rational act that adds up despite the risks entailed. To reach this conclusion, he has weighed in multiple factors. In fact, he has calculated all options and projected counter-options that are based on his deep knowledge of the system. In other words, he has war-gamed the situation.
Accordingly, he has fired the first shot. Three hard-hitting, direct and accusatory speeches within 10 days have sent political temperatures soaring. This is uncharted territory. The political class is aghast. How could he be so suicidal? How could he name those who cannot be named? How could he burn all boats and bridges and yet expect to sail on them or cross them?
But he is a rational actor and there must be some method in this ‘madness’. So he has fired the first shot after having war-gamed the counter shot from the other side. He will then fire his second shot and he has also war-gamed the counter shot to the second shot. He wants to climb up the escalatory ladder because he has war-gamed that for his every move, the other side has to retaliate with a higher calibre. Those in control must not be seen to lose an ounce of control and to ensure this they have to assert control every time someone challenges this control. Climbing up the escalatory ladder suits Nawaz.
So is he baiting the other side?
The three speeches are deliberately provocative. He is poking the other side in the eye. Will they take a swing? They could desist from doing so. But this may be seen as a sign of weakness, or indecision, or lack of options. And if they retaliate? Arrests, cases, raids, hearings — if all these and much more suddenly start to happen onto Nawaz’s team on the ground, it might escalate matters, which is what Nawaz has war-gamed already. Clever.
What does Nawaz Sharif want?
The other side should acknowledge that no one in today’s politics knows the Pakistani system better than Nawaz.
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