N
The 2017-2020 wave results of the World Values Survey are out (h/t Thulean Friend). You can access them and look at the data here. They do waves of surveys encompassing a few dozen countries every five years, making the WVS a highly useful resource for comparative sociology*.
One such question is repeatedly ask is if you “believe in God” (Q165 in this wave).
This confirms what we know to be a rather fast collapse in US religiosity, which is now at where the UK was during the Thatcher era – and something I myself observed during my stay there during 2006/8-2016.
Another recent Tweet that makes the same point:
This is noteworthy to the extent that religiosity can sometimes be (though far from always – see Czechia) a significant determinant of fertility. Raising children is very expensive in the US, even just childbirth can cost $50,000. With no religious reasons to keep doing it TFR may eventually plummet from current record lows (1.67projected for 2020 by Cicerone) by US historical standards to peripheral European figures below 1.5. Though this is just speculation, of course.
This seems to be occurring near everywhere in the West… with the market exception of Turkey (at least until of late). The neo-Ottomanist civilizational vigor is probably no accident.
Story is instead one of revival from late Soviet state atheism through to the 2000s, as the “Soviet Freezer” thawed out.
Traditionally very religious Poland is beginning to dip markedly, confirming what I observed in 2019. I expect it to fall to <80% within the decade. Czechia remains steady at a very low rate. It has been traditionally atheist-leaning for various historical reasons (true for Poland as well, but in the opposite direction).
Strong revival in both Hungary and Serbia.
Russia has seemingly reached a plateau around 74%, after another strong revival. The US should fall decidedly past that number in the next decade, which is quite the stunning reversal relative to Cold War stereotypes (which were true).
Wonder where Ukraine went in the past five years. I would guess it plateaued out or declined.
Caucasoids all in the 90%’s, though Armenia has always been the most atheist of the lot (in relative terms) with the exception of Azerbaijan’s anomalously low number during the 2005-2009 wave. Ironic, since Azerbaijan has a reputation as one of the most secular Muslim states.
Also some minor support for my guesstimate mentioned in recent posts that Armenian IQ is slightly above the Caucasus average (all else equal, the religious have lower IQ).
Near 100% in Central Asia (except Kazakhstan, but that’s clearly Russians). They are also the only major reason that has been seemingly unaffected by the TFR collapse of the past 5 years.
No religious “revival” in China as some Christian missionary types like to proclaim.
Close to 100% in most of the “classic” Third World”, with no signs of abatement (though some may be starting on the downslope – I think Brazil might be a good candidate, in light of its collapsing TFR; in Pakistan, where TFR remains high and steady, this year’s result is probably a fluke, especially considering that it’s famously more Islamic than Bangladesh).
***
I was happy to finally see the question “How many children would you like to have” being asked again after a long period, but then came the zrada as the only countries asked that question were Ethiopia and Zimbabwe.
One such question is repeatedly ask is if you “believe in God” (Q165 in this wave).
Developed countries
| 1981-1984 | 1989-1993 | 1994-1998 | 1999-2004 | 2005-2009 | 2010-2014 | 2017-2020 | |
| Austria | 13% | 13% | 18% | 24% | |||
| France | 62% | 57% | 56% | 50% | 50% | ||
| Finland | 61% | 73% | 74% | 56% | 54% | ||
| Germany | 72% | 57% | 49% | 62% | 58% | 63% | 56% |
| Greece | 84% | 90% | 92% | ||||
| Italy | 84% | 83% | 88% | 84% | 76% | ||
| Korea, South | 42% | 50% | 41% | ||||
| Norway | 70% | 58% | 65% | 54% | 46% | ||
| Spain | 87% | 80% | 87% | 80% | 72% | 71% | 64% |
| Sweden | 51% | 38% | 48% | 47% | 35% | 41% | 34% |
| Turkey | 83% | 98% | 99% | 98% | 94% | ||
| United Kingdom | 75% | 71% | 61% | 58% | 48% | ||
| United States | 96% | 93% | 94% | 94% | 88% | 76% |
Another recent Tweet that makes the same point:
This is noteworthy to the extent that religiosity can sometimes be (though far from always – see Czechia) a significant determinant of fertility. Raising children is very expensive in the US, even just childbirth can cost $50,000. With no religious reasons to keep doing it TFR may eventually plummet from current record lows (1.67projected for 2020 by Cicerone) by US historical standards to peripheral European figures below 1.5. Though this is just speculation, of course.
This seems to be occurring near everywhere in the West… with the market exception of Turkey (at least until of late). The neo-Ottomanist civilizational vigor is probably no accident.
Post-Communist countries
| 1981-1984 | 1989-1993 | 1994-1998 | 1999-2004 | 2005-2009 | 2010-2014 | 2017-2020 | |
| Belarus | 36% | 68% | 72% | 78% | 85% | 74% | |
| Czechia | 31% | 39% | 33% | 29% | 31% | ||
| Estonia | 46% | 41% | 43% | 43% | 38% | ||
| Hungary | 45% | 58% | 63% | 65% | 67% | 65% | |
| Poland | 95% | 96% | 95% | 92% | 90% | ||
| Romania | 89% | 92% | 92% | 95% | 92% | 93% | |
| Russia | 35% | 60% | 59% | 69% | 73% | 74% | |
| Serbia | 61% | 75% | 84% | 82% | |||
| Ukraine | 65% | 69% | 85% | 88% |
Traditionally very religious Poland is beginning to dip markedly, confirming what I observed in 2019. I expect it to fall to <80% within the decade. Czechia remains steady at a very low rate. It has been traditionally atheist-leaning for various historical reasons (true for Poland as well, but in the opposite direction).
Strong revival in both Hungary and Serbia.
Russia has seemingly reached a plateau around 74%, after another strong revival. The US should fall decidedly past that number in the next decade, which is quite the stunning reversal relative to Cold War stereotypes (which were true).
Wonder where Ukraine went in the past five years. I would guess it plateaued out or declined.
| 1981-1984 | 1989-1993 | 1994-1998 | 1999-2004 | 2005-2009 | 2010-2014 | 2017-2020 | |
| Armenia | 79% | 95% | 95% | 91% | |||
| Azerbaijan | 95% | 86% | 100% | 97% | |||
| Georgia | 91% | 98% | 99% | 98% |
Also some minor support for my guesstimate mentioned in recent posts that Armenian IQ is slightly above the Caucasus average (all else equal, the religious have lower IQ).
| 1981-1984 | 1989-1993 | 1994-1998 | 1999-2004 | 2005-2009 | 2010-2014 | 2017-2020 | |
| Kazakhstan | 89% | 88% | |||||
| Kyrgyzstan | 93% | 96% | 97% | ||||
| Tajikistan | 100% | ||||||
| Uzbekistan | 99% |
Developing World
| 1981-1984 | 1989-1993 | 1994-1998 | 1999-2004 | 2005-2009 | 2010-2014 | 2017-2020 | |
| Argentina | 83% | 90% | 93% | 95% | 91% | 92% | |
| Bangladesh | 98% | 99% | 100% | ||||
| Brazil | 98% | 99% | 98% | 96% | |||
| China | 17% | 17% | |||||
| India | 93% | 94% | 93% | 96% | |||
| Indonesia | 100% | 97% | |||||
| Iran | 99% | 99% | |||||
| Iraq | 99% | 100% | |||||
| Mexico | 97% | 92% | 93% | 98% | 94% | 96% | |
| Pakistan | 100% | 100% | 100% | 97% |
Close to 100% in most of the “classic” Third World”, with no signs of abatement (though some may be starting on the downslope – I think Brazil might be a good candidate, in light of its collapsing TFR; in Pakistan, where TFR remains high and steady, this year’s result is probably a fluke, especially considering that it’s famously more Islamic than Bangladesh).
***
I was happy to finally see the question “How many children would you like to have” being asked again after a long period, but then came the zrada as the only countries asked that question were Ethiopia and Zimbabwe.
New WVS 2017-2020 Shows US Religiosity Collapse
The 2017-2020 wave results of the World Values Survey are out (h/t Thulean Friend). You can access them and look at the data here. They do waves of surveys encompassing a few dozen countries every five years, making the WVS a highly useful resource for comparative sociology*. One such question...
www.unz.com
