TR Economy & Updates

[TheInsider]

If we went by your theory then I would say that it is all useless tbh
The problem with such a theory is that the elections are 1.5 years away. Erdo doesnt have the time to wait for 3 to 4 more years to see his projects giving their planned returns
With this, Erdo will lose, and CHP will restore TCMB independence which means rate hiking, a super strong lira, and obviously massive trade deficit. Thus, by then, such a plan would be wasted and all what the turks gained is suffering for around 2 years

There is a limit to how much you can increase your exports by devaluing your local currency. It works like diminishing returns at some point it doesn't matter how much you devalue your currency you won't see an increase in exports. TR made big investments after the attempted coup and will continue to make them. Most of them will come online between 2021-2023 and ramp up in 2025.

 

[TheInsider]

Even if we had trade surplus that alone doesnt mean anything when everything else hit the rock bottom, Turkish economy is in a very bad shape and it will take a lot of hard reforms to correct years of mismanagement, Turkish people probably have to suffer at least until 2026-2030 before catching up the same growth numbers as pre 2008.

The growth ratio will be no problem. This year we will grow %9+ next year we will probably grow between %7-9.

 

[TheInsider]

I don't think the proponents of this approach quite grasp that if the lira returns to normal again after getting higher export figures, it's very likely that any foreigners that Turkey conducts export trade with will immediately go for greener pastures and thus all this will be for nothing.

As I said before, Turkey is never going to be able to compete with the likes of China and India in that department, what with their combined populations of almost 3 billion people. This is an astonishingly moronic strategy and I still have trouble believing that these idiots think that investing in education and tightening regulations is somehow worse than killing your currency. But maybe it does make sense - the former requires tackling corruption and the government to stop trying to prevent Turkish youth from having critical thinking skills. The latter doesn't.

This is also not true. We will be switching to a high-tech economy rather than selling TB2s we will sell TF-X. Aselsan will set up 5G infrastructure etc. We will be selling high-tech steel rather than construction steel. We will sell EVs rather than combustion vehicles. When you manufacture you learn when you learn you improve.

 

[TheInsider]

Man, let us know the roots of your jolly optimism, many of us are just trying to make sense out of this mess!

I'm not optimistic the growth ratio of %9 for this year is set in stone. Unless someone nukes İstanbul it won't change. Growth signals for next year also look good. The problem is not the growth.

 

[Nilgiri]

September 2021 verified Turkish foreign trade stats
Imports 23 billion and 328 million $ ( increased by %11.9 compared to September 2020)
Exports 20 billion and 780 million $ (increased by %30 compared to September 2020)
Trade deficit 2 billion and 547 million $ ( decreased by %47.5 compared to September 2020 which is 4 billion and 856 million $ )
September 2021 Export/Import ratio %89.1 (It was %76,7 at September 2020)

January to September foreign trade deficit decreased from 37 billion and 876 million $ (January-September 2020) $ to 32 billion and 351 million $(January-September 2021). Exports/Imports ratio increased from %75.8(January-September 2020) to %83.3(January-September 2021)

combined with (earlier posted):

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1453256368245415958

Given what I have mentioned in a few posts, can another member analyse this now (and similar posts comparing 2021 to 2020) a bit deeper? (it is easy, just give it a try)

The first step is to look at the earlier numbers achieved in previous years (across the previous decade say).

Recognising that 2020 was an anomaly of a year given what happened....and thus its imperative to compare to larger chunk of years preceding rather than looking at blip "y.o.y" growth rates.

i.e To take just a few minutes to look that up instead of going for govt/media "Feel good" soundbites

Second step is a bonus mark (regd understanding)... later steps would take more time so forget that for now (but I will be impressed if anyone does).

=======================

Overall There is some A-->B--->C--->etc logic to go through and flesh out to see (any) relevance to:
letter X assertion: lira depreciation is core driving factor (when earlier letter analysis might give far stronger evidence for it)
letter Y, Z assertion: with more of letter X, the results will continue and then somehow fix anything bad with X in some asserted circular loop

Politicians (esp when in power) tend to love the last few letters of alphabet. It is all they ever talk about and when asked to talk about the earlier letters, they make muffled vague noises or a number of other tricks in their bag to deflect and/or suppress.

Focusing on 3 letters XYZ....means theres 23 letters you can forget about...
...and you can get to the fun part "now I know my ABC's next time wont you sing with me?"...(i.e politician noise)

 

[Nilgiri]

Focusing on 3 letters XYZ....means theres 23 letters you can forget about...
...and you can get to the fun part "now I know my ABC's next time wont you sing with me?"...(i.e politician noise)

A very mundane over-used "herding" of the sheep I see worldwide...and they keep falling for it because lack of understanding and higher perspective.

More broadly, one must never merge matters of faith to matters of rational existence....it is basic step to seeing bigger picture.

It is the fundamental problem when religion (or any non-provable emotional collectivism in general) is inserted in any way as part of a rational structure for a nation state.

Turkey will have to introspect itself and invest very hard (this decade) to contain number of counter-productive tendencies that emerged in last couple decades.

Then 2030 onwards looks lot brighter and secure.

==========================

As always (given it is TR republic day), my respect to founding father Ataturk. He knew very precisely why the republic had to be set up certain way.

100 year anniversary approaches which is a tension time in general worldwide given amnesia in population regarding formative genesis trial and tribulation.

Trust, honour and wisdom are in the mind you see...very deeply...and are also the things most difficult to nurture, grow and realise....the further you are removed from the chasm that stared viscerally at your ancestors which they endured and suffered and learned from....
Many try to understand such things and make sense of such things.....but they simply have not lived it....and cannot know it like those that did.

Therein lies the basic predicament of all human beings 100 years later from a crucible....the degrees merely vary.

It is why true heroes do stand out and the good among us know them and find them the reference of the greatest virtue that is courage.
Always always be careful and wary....of those that undermine them.

They are testing the waters and scope....for all that the hero fought against....simply by passage of time and the amnesia it brings.

 

[TheInsider]

Turkish economy didn't shrink in the past couple of years. Turkish GDP value in US dollars shrank. In 2022 the world economy is expected to continue recovering from the effects of the pandemic, chip crisis will ease (this is a huge strain on our automotive production which is our locomotive sector). Signals coming from the sectors like Automotive, textiles, machinery, household appliances, chemicals, steel hint the growth will continue next year.

TİM - Türkiye İhracatçılar Meclisi - Yıllık İhracat Hedefi ve Aylık 20 Milyar Dolar Eşiği Geçildi

Türkiye İhracatçılar Meclisi'nin (TİM) açıkladığı eylül ayı rakamlarına göre Türkiye, ihracatta tarihî bir eşiği daha geçti. Ekonomi ve ticaret diplomasisinin saha neferleri olan Türk ihracatçısı, eylül ayında ilk kez bir ayda 20 milyar doları aşarak tarih yazdı.

tim.org.tr

 

[TheInsider]

Let's talk about productivity then
In 2002 TR had 140 organized industrial zones. Today TR has 353 organized industrial zones.
In 2022 TR had ~14k factories today TR has 67k+ factories. There are also 4069 factory projects that are currently in construction in organized Industrial zones. There are also a big amount of planned investments in those organized industrial zones. This doesn't include huge state-backed investments with special incentives like TOGG, Baykar's new UAV factory, or the Aselsan Gölbaşı radar factory. There are several dozen huge projects running with state-backed special incentives like Nero Industry semiconductor fab, Tosyalı steel plant, Oyak armor steel plant, a huge chemical facility for producing polymers in Adana.

I'm talking about the real sector here. The real sector is booming. Numbers tell a lot. That is why we are pushing to Central Asia, Africa, the Middle East, etc. We need markets to sell our products.

 

[TheInsider]

Daily real sector investment updates.

https://twitter.com/hamlesi

 

[selim]

Turkish economy didn't shrink in the past couple of years. Turkish GDP value in US dollars shrank. In 2022 the world economy is expected to continue recovering from the effects of the pandemic, chip crisis will ease (this is a huge strain on our automotive production which is our locomotive sector). Signals coming from the sectors like Automotive, textiles, machinery, household appliances, chemicals, steel hint the growth will continue next year.

TİM - Türkiye İhracatçılar Meclisi - Yıllık İhracat Hedefi ve Aylık 20 Milyar Dolar Eşiği Geçildi

Türkiye İhracatçılar Meclisi'nin (TİM) açıkladığı eylül ayı rakamlarına göre Türkiye, ihracatta tarihî bir eşiği daha geçti. Ekonomi ve ticaret diplomasisinin saha neferleri olan Türk ihracatçısı, eylül ayında ilk kez bir ayda 20 milyar doları aşarak tarih yazdı.

tim.org.tr

Petkim had its highest profit ever in Q2 / 2021

Petkim, Nisan-Haziran 2021 döneminde 1 milyar 325 milyon TL net kara ulaşarak tüm zamanların en iyi dönem performansına imza attı

socar.com.tr

Sabanci achieved double-digit growth in all of its subsidaries in first half 2021

Sabancı Holding'den ilk 6 ayda 3,5 milyar TL net kar

Sabancı Holding'in 2021'in ilk yarısına ilişkin açıkladığı finansal sonuçlarına göre, 3 milyar 464 milyar TL net kar elde etti. Satışlarını yüzde 30 artıran Sabancı Holding, faaliyet gösterdiği tüm iş kollarındaki gelirlerini çift hane artırdı.

www.dunya.com

Vestel sold 16% more units in Q1/2021 than in Q1/2020

http://www.vestelyatirimciiliskileri.com/_assets/pdf/ara-donem-faliyet-raporlari/mart-2021.pdf

Compare downward spiral of TL / $ exchange rate with Istanbul stock exchange.
Stock exchange is doing well, because companies are growing and are making profits.

 

[Anastasius]

This is also not true. We will be switching to a high-tech economy rather than selling TB2s we will sell TF-X. Aselsan will set up 5G infrastructure etc. We will be selling high-tech steel rather than construction steel. We will sell EVs rather than combustion vehicles. When you manufacture you learn when you learn you improve.

If that were true, "Made in China" wouldn't still be something signifying low-quality goods that will break down within a year. And they've had around a 40 year head start on Turkey in that department. Just acquiring better technology for manufacturing won't fix anything, the most important thing is a solid knowledge base.

 

[Lool]

If that were true, "Made in China" wouldn't still be something signifying low-quality goods that will break down within a year. And they've had around a 40 year head start on Turkey in that department. Just acquiring better technology for manufacturing won't fix anything, the most important thing is a solid knowledge base.

Not really
Not all Made in China is bad
Whatever is made in China has different quality degrees from poor to top class
It is just that countries prefer to buy the poor ones as they are cheaper and break more easily so the ppl would come to buy again which ensures business continues

I mean dont tell me a country that produces jet engines, ballistic missiles, iphones, space stations, and ships cant produce top quality consumable goods

 

[Huelague]

The high exchange ratio could be a change to reduce the “unnecessary” imports and strengthen the local products.
Energy imports are still a problem. We need more Power plants and energy efficiency.

 

[Xenon54]

The growth ratio will be no problem. This year we will grow %9+ next year we will probably grow between %7-9.

Depends on what you take as base, i hardly expect these number on dollar base, and its pretty useless in tl base because the currency is losing value and high inflation doing the rest to the growth, as said, all indicators must be good not only some of them to be able to say that economy is doing well.
But its good enough for election campaing among folks who can not even do basic maths.

 

[Xenon54]

The high exchange ratio could be a change to reduce the “unnecessary” imports and strengthen the local products.
Energy imports are still a problem. We need more Power plants and energy efficiency.

Turkey is not importing electricity, its importing gas and oil and guess what those power plants use to generate electricity...
We can build more dams but that also has its limits.

 

[Xenon54]

I have attached a chart that shows the ratio of resources used in electricity generation. You will see a large scale departure from imported fossil fuels. Instead, renewable energy is on the rise. Recent investments in renewable energy, and nuclear power plants are likely to pay off in a not-so-distant future.

The interesting part are the three on top which have the biggest share in production, and there we see decrease in Hydro and big increase in natural gas and slight increase in imported coal.
Well, doesnt look that good to me tbh.

 

[TheInsider]

The real problem is inflation, not growth. TR has been doing were well in investing, capacity increase, and growth. We should have lowered the inflation, and then we should have decreased the interest rate and increased the dollar/TL ratio. If you decrease the interest rate before decreasing inflation, both inflation and dollar/TL ratio will increase and you have to increase interest rate more than needed in the future to bring back the dollar/TL ratio(which will be the prime cause of inflation by then) because of that.

 

[what]

The interesting part are the three on top which have the biggest share in production, and there we see decrease in Hydro and big increase in natural gas and slight increase in imported coal.
Well, doesnt look that good to me tbh.

Hydro dropped probably because of the draught last year.

 

[TheInsider]

Yes, renewables are prone to changes. Wind may not blow, rain may not fall and production of hydropower might decrease, there might be a lot of cloudy days and a decrease in solar output.

 

[Tornadoss]

Turkey hikes natural gas prices for power plants, industry by 47-48%

Turkey raised the price of natural gas used by power plants by 47% and the price of gas used by industry by 48%, while consumer gas prices remained unchanged, the state energy company Botas said on Monday.

www.reuters.com

Natural gas prices are increased by 48% for the industry and electricity producers. Even though, for consumers it's not increased, this will affect electricity and other prices.