Ukraine Crisis, Whose position is more justified? Russia or Nato?

[xizhimen]

today still is the undisputed world champion

Results from various global polls show otherwise.

 

[McCool]

​

​

From economic miracle to mirage – will China’s GDP ever overtake the US?​

Analysis: issues of governance, rising debt, Covid and property market turmoil will delay Beijing’s quest to become the global economy’s No 1

A vast car park of lorries and excavators for export at the port of Lianyungang in China’s Jiangsu province. Photograph: VCG/Getty Images

George Magnus
Tue 28 Dec 2021 15.08 GMT



“The east is rising, the west is declining”, according to the narrative propagated by the Chinese Communist party (CCP). Many outside China take its “inevitable rise” as read. On the way to becoming a “modern socialist country” by 2035, and rich, powerful, and dominant by 2049, the centenary of the People’s Republic, China wants to claim bragging rights as its GDP surpasses the United States, and project its power based on its expanding economic heft.

There is, however, a critical flaw in this narrative. China’s economy may fail to overtake the US as it succumbs to the proverbial middle-income trap. This is where the relative development progress of countries in relation to richer nations stalls, and is normally characterised by difficult economic adjustment and often by unpredictable political consequences.

Historically, China’s growth miracle has been remarkable. In the 30 years to 1990, the money GDP (the market value of goods and services produced in an economy) for China and the US in American dollar terms grew more or less in tandem at just over 6% and 8% per annum, respectively. . But in the next three decades, China’s GDP growth doubled to more than 13%, while the US’s halved to 4.5%. That pushed China’s GDP up from 5% of American GDP to 66%.

Yet, China’s growth spurt is now over, and the huge disparity in GDP growth has been eliminated. In the last few quarters, China’s GDP has been growing at half the rate of the US. Although that discrepancy is probably unsustainable, the US’s estimated $7tn GDP margin over China in 2021 means that comparable rates of GDP growth in the future will sustain and even widen the margin. A Japanese thinktank has recently extended the date when it expects China to overtake the US, from 2029 to 2033. Deferrals like this are now a feature, and there will be more.
Q&A

What is gross domestic product (GDP)?​

Show

Advertisement



The issue though is less about the maths and more about why China is at a turning point.
Remember we have been here before. In the 1930s, Germany was going to dominate Europe, if not the world. In the 1960s and the 1980s, the Soviet Union – which had already stolen a march on the US in space technology – and later Japan, which was the rising economic force on the planet, would within 10 to 20 years overtake the United States to become the dominant economic and technological power.

History was not kind to the consensus. There is a serial tendency going back to the 1920s to underestimate the self-rectifying capacity of American institutions and enterprise. Equally, the Soviet Union and Japan both pursued similar development models, based around distortions that emphasised unsustainably and excessively high savings, high investment, and eventually high debt. Their development models cracked with spectacular consequences attributable to chronic failures of institutions and governance.

China is our 21st-century version of this phenomenon. Its investment rate is a good 10 percentage points of GDP higher than it was at the peak in the USSR and Japan, and strongly associated with misallocation and inefficiency of capital, and widespread debt servicing problems.

Its zero-Covid policy could keep barriers in place between China and the world economy until 2023 or even beyond, but this aside, a protracted slowing in trend growth, exacerbated by over-indebtedness and the tipping point now in real estate, as illustrated by the crumbling development giant Evergrande, is already under way. China’s $60tn real estate sector is four times GDP and accounts for a quarter to a third of annual growth. It faces years of awkward adjustment, not least as developers cut debt, the first-time buyer age cohort contracts, and probably as real estate prices decline.

China’s economic structure, moreover, is unbalanced. It has income per head that is the equivalent of Mexico, but consumption per head that is no higher than Peru. Consumer spending accounts for about 37% of GDP, little higher than it was in 2010, and much lower than in 2000. Productivity growth, closely associated with liberalising reform, has stalled.

End to China’s estate market boom could spell trouble for the economy
George Magnus
Read more
Advertisement

China’s development model urgently needs a makeover to avoid the middle-income trap. The longer it is delayed, the bigger the costs. China’s leaders recognise that change is necessary, and Xi Jinping recently revived the slogan of “common prosperity” to mobilise the Communist party and citizens around a strategy to reduce income and regional inequality, and improve living standards.

Yet these political goals require precisely the kind of liberalising, progressive and redistributive reforms to the economy to which Xi Jinping is opposed. He has pursued an increasingly ideological and totalitarian governance style in which the already dominant position of the party and state in the economy has been strengthened further.

Perversely, he has created a contradiction in which even the CCP’s expertise in dialectical argument may be of little help. The recent blizzard of new laws and regulations aimed at private firms and entrepreneurs, for example, is designed to nail down the party’s control and bring the private sector to political heel. This is hardly compatible with the productivity growth and innovation on which China’s lofty economic ambition depends.

Overtaking the United States is going to need a lot more than narrative. It requires policies to which Xi’s China is opposed, and might just remain a mirage. The consequences for China and the rest of the world have not been properly thought about.
George Magnus is a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre and at Soas. He is the author of Red Flags: Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy.

From economic miracle to mirage – will China’s GDP ever overtake the US?

Analysis: issues of governance, rising debt, Covid and property market turmoil will delay Beijing’s quest to become the global economy’s No 1

www.theguardian.com

 

[xizhimen]

​

​

From economic miracle to mirage – will China’s GDP ever overtake the US?​

Analysis: issues of governance, rising debt, Covid and property market turmoil will delay Beijing’s quest to become the global economy’s No 1

A vast car park of lorries and excavators for export at the port of Lianyungang in China’s Jiangsu province. Photograph: VCG/Getty Images

George Magnus
Tue 28 Dec 2021 15.08 GMT



“The east is rising, the west is declining”, according to the narrative propagated by the Chinese Communist party (CCP). Many outside China take its “inevitable rise” as read. On the way to becoming a “modern socialist country” by 2035, and rich, powerful, and dominant by 2049, the centenary of the People’s Republic, China wants to claim bragging rights as its GDP surpasses the United States, and project its power based on its expanding economic heft.

There is, however, a critical flaw in this narrative. China’s economy may fail to overtake the US as it succumbs to the proverbial middle-income trap. This is where the relative development progress of countries in relation to richer nations stalls, and is normally characterised by difficult economic adjustment and often by unpredictable political consequences.

Historically, China’s growth miracle has been remarkable. In the 30 years to 1990, the money GDP (the market value of goods and services produced in an economy) for China and the US in American dollar terms grew more or less in tandem at just over 6% and 8% per annum, respectively. . But in the next three decades, China’s GDP growth doubled to more than 13%, while the US’s halved to 4.5%. That pushed China’s GDP up from 5% of American GDP to 66%.

Yet, China’s growth spurt is now over, and the huge disparity in GDP growth has been eliminated. In the last few quarters, China’s GDP has been growing at half the rate of the US. Although that discrepancy is probably unsustainable, the US’s estimated $7tn GDP margin over China in 2021 means that comparable rates of GDP growth in the future will sustain and even widen the margin. A Japanese thinktank has recently extended the date when it expects China to overtake the US, from 2029 to 2033. Deferrals like this are now a feature, and there will be more.
Q&A

What is gross domestic product (GDP)?​

Show

Advertisement



The issue though is less about the maths and more about why China is at a turning point.
Remember we have been here before. In the 1930s, Germany was going to dominate Europe, if not the world. In the 1960s and the 1980s, the Soviet Union – which had already stolen a march on the US in space technology – and later Japan, which was the rising economic force on the planet, would within 10 to 20 years overtake the United States to become the dominant economic and technological power.

History was not kind to the consensus. There is a serial tendency going back to the 1920s to underestimate the self-rectifying capacity of American institutions and enterprise. Equally, the Soviet Union and Japan both pursued similar development models, based around distortions that emphasised unsustainably and excessively high savings, high investment, and eventually high debt. Their development models cracked with spectacular consequences attributable to chronic failures of institutions and governance.

China is our 21st-century version of this phenomenon. Its investment rate is a good 10 percentage points of GDP higher than it was at the peak in the USSR and Japan, and strongly associated with misallocation and inefficiency of capital, and widespread debt servicing problems.

Its zero-Covid policy could keep barriers in place between China and the world economy until 2023 or even beyond, but this aside, a protracted slowing in trend growth, exacerbated by over-indebtedness and the tipping point now in real estate, as illustrated by the crumbling development giant Evergrande, is already under way. China’s $60tn real estate sector is four times GDP and accounts for a quarter to a third of annual growth. It faces years of awkward adjustment, not least as developers cut debt, the first-time buyer age cohort contracts, and probably as real estate prices decline.

China’s economic structure, moreover, is unbalanced. It has income per head that is the equivalent of Mexico, but consumption per head that is no higher than Peru. Consumer spending accounts for about 37% of GDP, little higher than it was in 2010, and much lower than in 2000. Productivity growth, closely associated with liberalising reform, has stalled.
End to China’s estate market boom could spell trouble for the economy
George Magnus
Read more
Advertisement

China’s development model urgently needs a makeover to avoid the middle-income trap. The longer it is delayed, the bigger the costs. China’s leaders recognise that change is necessary, and Xi Jinping recently revived the slogan of “common prosperity” to mobilise the Communist party and citizens around a strategy to reduce income and regional inequality, and improve living standards.

Yet these political goals require precisely the kind of liberalising, progressive and redistributive reforms to the economy to which Xi Jinping is opposed. He has pursued an increasingly ideological and totalitarian governance style in which the already dominant position of the party and state in the economy has been strengthened further.

Perversely, he has created a contradiction in which even the CCP’s expertise in dialectical argument may be of little help. The recent blizzard of new laws and regulations aimed at private firms and entrepreneurs, for example, is designed to nail down the party’s control and bring the private sector to political heel. This is hardly compatible with the productivity growth and innovation on which China’s lofty economic ambition depends.

Overtaking the United States is going to need a lot more than narrative. It requires policies to which Xi’s China is opposed, and might just remain a mirage. The consequences for China and the rest of the world have not been properly thought about.
George Magnus is a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre and at Soas. He is the author of Red Flags: Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy.

From economic miracle to mirage – will China’s GDP ever overtake the US?

Analysis: issues of governance, rising debt, Covid and property market turmoil will delay Beijing’s quest to become the global economy’s No 1

www.theguardian.com

Hundreds of reports have different predictions of the date of China's overtaking

But keep this in your mind, this is about dollar based nominal GDP, it's largely based on how much banknotes US prints and exchange rate, in real sense strength, China is already the world biggest trader, exporter and maunfacturer, with unrivaled industrial capability by a huge margin, China produces and consumes half of the world materials, US is only still strong on paper, it's a stock market boosted bubble, the real strength of the nation had long been hollowed out.

 

[xizhimen]

U.S.'s Blinken holds talks with China's Wang on Ukraine risks​

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks about Russia and Ukraine during a briefing at the State Department in Washington, U.S., January 26, 2022. Brendan Smialowski/Pool via REUTERS reuters_tickers

Published on January 27, 2022 - 06:08

(Reuters) -U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi about Ukraine on Wednesday, highlighting global security and the economic risks that could stem from further Russian aggression, the State Department said.

"Secretary Blinken ... conveyed that de-escalation and diplomacy are the responsible way forward," department spokesman Ned Price said in a statement.

Global security and the economic risks posed by further Russian aggression against Ukraine figured in the talks, the department added.

The United States earlier on Wednesday set out a diplomatic path to address sweeping Russian demands in eastern Europe, as Moscow held security talks with Western countries and intensified its military build-up near Ukraine with new drills.

Russia has demanded NATO pull back troops and weapons from eastern Europe and bar Ukraine, a former Soviet state, from ever joining the alliance. The United States and its NATO allies reject that but say they are ready to discuss other topics such as arms control and confidence-building measures.

U.S. urges China to use influence with Moscow over Ukraine

By Gabriel Crossley, David Brunnstrom and Michael Martina BEIJING/WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The United States on Thursday called on China to use its influence with Russia to urge a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis...

www.swissinfo.ch

 

[Azeri441]

Whose position is justified? The whole reason NATO continues to expand is due to Russia, just few weeks ago Russia began threatening Sweden and Finland and now those countries are seriously considering joining NATO, if Russia was a peaceful neighbor NATO would serve no purpose, it is entirely on Russia that countries such as Ukraine, Georgia and many others are attempting to join the union.

 

[xizhimen]

Whose position is justified? The whole reason NATO continues to expand is due to Russia, just few weeks ago Russia began threatening Sweden and Finland and now those countries are seriously considering joining NATO, if Russia was a peaceful neighbor NATO would serve no purpose, it is entirely on Russia that countries such as Ukraine, Georgia and many others are attempting to join the union.

It's falsely instilled fear by US and the west, they also claim that China is about to invade every neighbor, but the fact is China didn't fire a single shot to any countries for 40 years , speaking of a warlike and threatening country, check the track record of US for the past 2 decades or more.

 

[blackjack]

The US is already present and engaged worldwide, back when your China is still a backwater hellhole. it today still is the undisputed world champion while you're struggling to pass their GDP while being 4x larger.

So yeah, maybe you could sell your idea to whatever hole you came from.

for some reason all our MIT students all look Chinese I just cant figure that out while they get 2nd place in the ICPC contests right behind russia, with china 3rd place and poland 4th place. For some reason as well all our top math and science students all look Chinese as well. I mean how does that all happen?

 

[McCool]

for some reason all our MIT students all look Chinese I just cant figure that out while they get 2nd place in the ICPC contests right behind russia, with china 3rd place and poland 4th place. For some reason as well all our top math and science students all look Chinese as well. I mean how does that all happen?

yes, correct all the brightest talents ended up in the US, including from Russia.

Hence no wonder why the US will rule the world for centuries to come.

 

[xizhimen]

yes, correct all the brightest talents ended up in the US, including from Russia.

Hence no wonder why the US will rule the world for centuries to come.

Not in China, now over 80% of Chinese students studied in US choose to come back to China, besides, in China, most students choosing to study overseas are 高考失败者, whose who failed Chinese Gaokao, so they are not really talents in the first place.
As for US will rule for centuries to come, maybe it rules you country, but not rules China.

 

[xizhimen]

Top U.S., Chinese diplomats fail to agree on Ukraine situation​

KYODO NEWS - 6 minutes ago - 17:35

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday told his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi about the "global security and economic risks" of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, but they apparently fell short of reaching an agreement on the issue.

The phone call took place as U.S.-Russia tensions are running high over Moscow's massive military buildup on the Ukrainian border, while President Vladimir Putin has demanded the North Atlantic Treaty Organization pull back troops and weapons from Eastern Europe.

Washington has warned Moscow of severe economic and financial sanctions should Russia choose to invade and called on it to de-escalate tensions. Meanwhile, China has asked the United States to respect the security fears of the world's largest country by area.

According to the U.S. State Department, Blinken told Wang of the global "risks" posed by further Russian aggression against Ukraine and conveyed that "de-escalation and diplomacy are the responsible way forward."

Wang was quoted by the Chinese Foreign Ministry as telling Blinken, "Russia's legitimate security concerns should be paid attention to and resolved," underscoring that Beijing has supported Moscow's position.

Top U.S., Chinese diplomats fail to agree on Ukraine situation

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Jan. 26 told his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi about the "global security and economic risks" of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, but they apparently fell short of reaching an agreement on the issue.

english.kyodonews.net

 

[xizhimen]

Hence no wonder why the US will rule the world for centuries to come.

China's goal is not for seeking the global domination, but for ending the white western global domination and colonisation which has ravaged this planet for centuries.

 

[McCool]

Yeah, right says the colonizers of Tibet

 

[xizhimen]

Yeah, right says the colonizers of Tibet

Tibet was part of China long before PRC, check the old world map and find out.

 

[xizhimen]

US state department documentary, 1944. The Battle of China. PRC was founded in October. 1949

 

[McCool]

China was once part of the Mongol empire

 

[xizhimen]

China was once part of the Mongol empire

True, so was Russia and most countries in between. and back then your America was not even a country.

 

[McCool]

yes, that why we have Int'l law, something that rogue country like yours don't respect

 

[xizhimen]

yes, that why we have Int'l law, something that rogue country like yours don't respect

We all know who invaded and conquered countries around the world, check out the world map, if you insist it was China, be my guest.

I guess you are one of those guys believing US got their independence from China...

 

[McCool]

certainly not USA

 

[xizhimen]

If Russia doesn't do nothing now, soon this Nato expansion will be enemy at gate reaching Moscow's city wall