What will happen after Russia leaves Syria and Libya?

[Oublious]

The balance in Syria will change after Russia will not able to finance operations abroad. War means money and they will have not enough, so Assad will go for another strong allies. I don't expect China, Assad will go for Arab league. Wher they eat, sleap and fart more. Ther will be another problem and that is Americans in Syria, after Russia ther will be no power balance. That will create problems Americans will go help Pkk more.

Also that whore in Libya Fetih bashg, Russia will not able to stronghold in Libya so we need to face Egypt and his puppet fetih. Long term and short UAE will go try to bite, if they don't answer Biden phone what will they not do against us?

The balance of power is shifting and we need to be hurry.....

 

[Manomed]

The balance in Syria will change after Russia will not able to finance operations abroad. War means money and they will have not enough, so Assad will go for another strong allies. I don't expect China, Assad will go for Arab league. Wher they eat, sleap and fart more. Ther will be another problem and that is Americans in Syria, after Russia ther will be no power balance. That will create problems Americans will go help Pkk more.

Also that whore in Libya Fetih bashg, Russia will not able to stronghold in Libya so we need to face Egypt and his puppet fetih. Long term and short UAE will go try to bite, if they don't answer Biden phone what will they not do against us?

The balance of power is shifting and we need to be hurry.....

Egytpian army nor the Egypt is a threat to us.

 

[Oublious]

Egytpian army nor the Egypt is a threat to us.

I say they are threat, Egypt should first cancel ther deal with Cyprus EEZ. This deal was signed begine 2000 i don't remember the exact date. If they accept Cyprus EEZ they will be allowed to search in EEZ of Cyprus and share the profit with each others. Egypt did send ships for explorations and threated Turkey with war. if you remember we send ther ship back home.

Egypt is not planning to give Libya away, they want to put a puppet like Fetih and steal Libyan weath. We have to face this, we are not enemies but we have a isseu we can not look away from it. When Russia is out of Libya should put more pressure on that donkey Fetih.

 

[Heartbang]

I say they are threat, Egypt should first cancel ther deal with Cyprus EEZ. This deal was signed begine 2000 i don't remember the exact date. If they accept Cyprus EEZ they will be allowed to search in EEZ of Cyprus and share the profit with each others. Egypt did send ships for explorations and threated Turkey with war. if you remember we send ther ship back home.

Egypt is not planning to give Libya away, they want to put a puppet like Fetih and steal Libyan weath. We have to face this, we are not enemies but we have a isseu we can not look away from it. When Russia is out of Libya should put more pressure on that donkey Fetih.

we can adequately respond to every Egyptian transgression by proposing and -hopefully- constructing dam projects to Sudan and Ethiopia. When his people start turning into dried raisins in that new capital of his, that camel fondler Sisi will back off.

And dont even think for a second Egypt has a competent army. their officers are pulling double duty both running and defending the country, are as corrupt as Russian officers and have no hope against Israel, let alone Turkiye. I'm not even gonna mention the logistics hodgepodge theyre in, rocking equipment from USA, France, Russia and so on.

 

[McCool]

I think Assad must be thinking hard right now. Putin is now 69 years old, he won't be living forever. On the other hand the Russian economy is guaranteed rekt and is in a free fall. Russia's ability to support military operations far from home is now under serious question.

If Putin dies (and he will eventually dies). His successor would inherit a Russia with a very long list of domestic and int'l problems. Russia might win in Ukraine but that will be the least of their concerns in the long long run as Russia now will be busy tasked pacifying a country who doesn't want to be part of them or any of their sphere of influence nonsense.

Russia might opt to retreat from the ME and focus whatever power and resources they have to tackle problems at home and on their borders (Ukraine).

For Assad this means trouble. His army is non existent, his air force are so old one can barely understand how they're still flying, not to mention that its pilots are old too. His last victory in Syria are a result of Russian intervention, rebel infighting and the world total blindness to the carpet bombings method of the Russians.

Pull the Russians out and Assad would see his army steadily losing lands again like they did in 2011-2015. If Putin and his eventual successor pull the plug. It's over for him.

Another thing to consider is airpower in Syria. Since 2015, the VKS has de facto replace the SyAAF as the government main air support element. The SyAAF has been noticably more absent than active since 2018. In the aftermath of the war in Ukraine, Russia would now face a strategic environment where NATO are awoken from its deep slumber and re-discover its raison d'etre. Already we have seen Germany adding $100+B special funds for it's military as well as pledge to spend up to 2% of its GDP on defense. This has been followed with similar pledge from France,Poland as well as the UK planning to increase defense spending. In a few years time, the already exorbitant imbalance between Russia and the West would even more skyrocket. Russia is now even more vulnerable from the NATO alliance more than ever. That could mean that the Russian air force would have to re-calculate their deployment calculus to support its homeland defense.

Far from home deployments like in Khmeimin means less and less airframe to defend Russian airspace. Not to mention cost. Russia could either withdraw and rethink its purpose or stay in Syria fighting a war nobody knows when it will stop. Will Russia's pride prevent them to act rational ? Who knows.

One thing that could be very clear is that the Russians myth of military power are already gone. One could hardly envisioned a military deal in Syria where Russia speak from the position of strength.

 

[Ryder]

I think Assad must be thinking hard right now. Putin is now 69 years old, he won't be living forever. On the other hand the Russian economy is guaranteed rekt and is in a free fall. Russia's ability to support military operations far from home is now under serious question.

If Putin dies (and he will eventually dies). His successor would inherit a Russia with a very long list of domestic and int'l problems. Russia might win in Ukraine but that will be the least of their concerns in the long long run as Russia now will be busy tasked pacifying a country who doesn't want to be part of them or any of their sphere of influence nonsense.

Russia might opt to retreat from the ME and focus whatever power and resources they have to tackle problems at home and on their borders (Ukraine).

For Assad this means trouble. His army is non existent, his air force are so old one can barely understand how they're still flying, not to mention that its pilots are old too. His last victory in Syria are a result of Russian intervention, rebel infighting and the world total blindness to the carpet bombings method of the Russians.

Pull the Russians out and Assad would see his army steadily losing lands again like they did in 2011-2015. If Putin and his eventual successor pull the plug. It's over for him.

Another thing to consider is airpower in Syria. Since 2015, the VKS has de facto replace the SyAAF as the government main air support element. The SyAAF has been noticably more absent than active since 2018. In the aftermath of the war in Ukraine, Russia would now face a strategic environment where NATO are awoken from its deep slumber and re-discover its raison d'etre. Already we have seen Germany adding $100+B special funds for it's military as well as pledge to spend up to 2% of its GDP on defense. This has been followed with similar pledge from France,Poland as well as the UK planning to increase defense spending. In a few years time, the already exorbitant imbalance between Russia and the West would even more skyrocket. Russia is now even more vulnerable from the NATO alliance more than ever. That could mean that the Russian air force would have to re-calculate their deployment calculus to support its homeland defense.

Far from home deployments like in Khmeimin means less and less airframe to defend Russian airspace. Not to mention cost. Russia could either withdraw and rethink its purpose or stay in Syria fighting a war nobody knows when it will stop. Will Russia's pride prevent them to act rational ? Who knows.

One thing that could be very clear is that the Russians myth of military power are already gone. One could hardly envisioned a military deal in Syria where Russia speak from the position of strength.

China cant fill the position at all. Especially from a military standing point yes economy the Chinese can influence the country but China still lacks projecting military power in other places.

China cant fill the military void. There was so many rumours of China sending troops to Syria. None has materialised.

Assad is screwed because he waa basically on life support due to the Russians.

Iran especially could not prop assad despite being their biggest supporters. Iran even once green lighted the Russians to come to Syria as they were getting stomped pretty badly especially by the rebels.

 

[Zafer]

Türkiye is going easy in Libya and not using hard power while we could.
This will make the Libya operations less costly.
With the absence of Russia Türkiye can influence a larger base in Libya and enable the existence of one dominant government which will at the end lead to a single central power which is on good terms with Turkey.

This will make room for peaceful activity for other nations without involving hard power.
In a few years time Libya can sell all its hydrocarbons and get back to prosperous path.
With a little help from Türkiye Libya can be a democratic country where no clan has to overpower others to get a fair share from wealth.