Azerbaijan Armenia Tensions

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1320082350852788226

Confirmation from Arm that Az is moving towards Lacin

 

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1320088998057050113

Az has the option of targetting military hardware in selfdefense according to UN 51.paragraf

 

[Null/Void]

Trying to find out more atm. Perhaps it’s a øn election stunt to gsther votes from Armenians.

Its important Trump wins Biden will just turn this conflict into even much longer one by placating as a anti Russian move

 

[Gary]

Seems US has sent a warning to Baku. Something is going on.

The US is preoccupied with China in the South China Sea, I don't think they'll do much militarily for Armenia against Azerbaijan. Maybe some sanctions, but it's not like they're going to send a Carrier strike group to the Black sea to try reverse the situation.

 

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319732546704375809

Why?

 

[Xenon54]

Compare Al Bab and cities in eastern Turkey after the Turkish army was involved in heavy urban warfare there. This isn't a matter of "the Turks vs the others",but a matter of how much resistance the enemy is willing to give. It's easy to capture a city intact when your adversary barely puts a fight. The contrary is another story though.

Speaking of it i was checking out the sat pictures a couple days ago and the destruction in the conflict cities of SE Turkey arent insignificant at all, the clashes were not any less than what we have seen in Syria you can see that even from space.

Below is a sat image from Nusaybin just across Qamisli, one of the fiercest clashes happened in this city and the areas in red circle are completely new/rebuilt parts of the town which seems at least 1/3 of it.

 

[KKF 2.0]

I was aware of this road to Vardenis. It wasn't include it in my earlier post because early in the conflict there was reports that this road had been intersected by the Azeris. Perhaps it did happen and the area where it occurred is still being contested. Nevertheless, I think this road is of a lot lesser importance because it is very vulnerable being at places around 10km from the border. So it can be hit quite easily and frequently.
Also your map shows this Mrav mountain being under Azeri control, so it makes the road even more difficult to defend from attack for the Armenians.

It's one of the reasons why the yellow colored areas are defined as Armenian "corridor" in the Madrid Principles which were never implemented by both sides.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madrid_Principles

But the road coming from Vardenis has some advantages as well as disadvantages.

This is the actual rout:

It has been expanded after many years of reconstruction and today large parts can be considered as reaching international highway standards. But the Vardenis-Martakart expressway is much more prone to attacks from AZ. Using this motorway in its full length would turn it into an Armenian version of the Iraqi Highway of Death.

There is another drawback, though. All the roads that are connected to this highway are in very bad shape. For instance, the roads below are described as "highways" in the Karvachar region:

During winter time, many of these roads are covered completely in ice and snow. You can only use them with tracked vehicles. This is why everyone is talking about Lacin. It's far, far more important than the Vardenis connection.

 

[Azeri441]

It's one of the reasons why the yellow colored areas are defined as Armenian "corridor" in the Madrid Principles which were never implemented by both sides.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madrid_Principles

But the road coming from Vardenis has some advantages as well as disadvantages.

This is the actual rout:

It has been expanded after many years of reconstruction and today large parts can be considered as reaching international highway standards. But the Vardenis-Martakart expressway is much more prone to attacks from AZ. Using this motorway in its full length would turn it into an Armenian version of the Iraqi Highway of Death.

There is another drawback, though. All the roads that are connected to this highway are in very bad shape. For instance, the roads below are described as "highways" in the Karvachar region:

During winter time, many of these roads are covered completely in ice and snow. You can only use them with tracked vehicles. This is why everyone is talking about Lacin. It's far, far more important than the Vardenis connection.

Vardenis connection has already been closed as our forces captured Moruv positions in the first day of the conflict, and drones are already conducting strikes in Kelbajar region.

 

[KKF 2.0]

Vardenis connection has already been closed as our forces captured Moruv positions in the first day of the conflict, and drones are already conducting strikes in Kelbajar region.

Unfortunately, this information is still not verified and I don't believe it's true at this point of the war.

Only the peak of the mountain is under Azeri control but the biggest part of the mountain range is still under Armenian occupation. It is unbelievably hard to fight in such a mountainous area. You cannot just liberate this region in few days even if your enemy is Armenia.

 

[Madokafc]

The US is preoccupied with China in the South China Sea, I don't think they'll do much militarily for Armenia against Azerbaijan. Maybe some sanctions, but it's not like they're going to send a Carrier strike group to the Black sea to try reverse the situation.

Armenian is legit Russia Ally, die hard Russia defender. If other US Ally can be sanctioned over mere bought Russian hardware, how can they give an Ally of Russia a support for fighting against Israel and Turkey allies (legit Ally of US in the region), that's should be question to ponder?

 

[Madokafc]

Biden will be in the wrong to side with the Armenian, foreign policy dictated what is giving benefit the most for US National interest. For this point of view, oil and gas Pipeline of Azeris Georgia Turkey toward European union in which resides many of US ally can benefitted alot from the security guaranted after pacification of Nagorno Karabakh and weakening of Russian Ally in the region along with the usage of many Russian military hardware to keep Armenian stay afloat. Not to mention, this will dispersed Russian resource to support her allies and proxy from other fronts like Syria and Eastern Ukraine fronts. If anything just by support Azeris morally can give a lot of benefit toward American long term foreign policy. Alas, those fools being blinded by Armenian propaganda and hard lobby, i mean the likes of Kardashian and West alone can give million US Dollar for candidate campaign support

 

[guest_07]

Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh to Muslim
& Good day to the rest

The Armenian military sends
child soldiers
to the frontlines in Karabakh,
violating international agreements.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1320068409481113600

 

[Gary]

Armenian is legit Russia Ally, die hard Russia defender. If other US Ally can be sanctioned over mere bought Russian hardware, how can they give an Ally of Russia a support for fighting against Israel and Turkey allies (legit Ally of US in the region), that's should be question to ponder?

You forgot the quite powerful Armenian diaspora community in the US. And now it's election year.

 

[Era_shield]

Lol

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1320057725401923585

 

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1310953254390509572

No seriously, why haven't we seen any SU-30s in action? The SM variant have a quite powerful Phased array radar and long range AAM. We haven't seen the Armenians even trying to utilize those capabilities.

 

[Azeri441]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1310953254390509572

No seriously, why haven't we seen any SU-30s in action? The SM variant have a quite powerful Phased array radar and long range AAM. We haven't seen the Armenians even trying to utilize those capabilities.

many reasons

1. they are stationed in Armenia, thus Armenia wouldn't be able to attack Azerbaijan directly, and even if they did, Azerbaijan will just wipe out the airbase.

2. Azerbaijan has the most advanced air defense network in the region, 4th gen planes have no chance of entering it.

3. Although Russian planes are called multi-role, their true multi-role capabilities are pretty limited, Su-30SM has very little munition to use against ground targets. Russian fighters are not like Western fighters, they don't have targeting pods or wide variety of laser guided munitions to use against ground elements.

 

[Gary]

many reasons

1. they are stationed in Armenia, thus Armenia wouldn't be able to attack Azerbaijan directly, and even if they did, Azerbaijan will just wipe out the airbase.

2. Azerbaijan has the most advanced air defense network in the region, 4th gen planes have no chance of entering it.

3. Although Russian planes are called multi-role, their true multi-role capabilities are pretty limited, Su-30SM has very little munition to use against ground targets. Russian fighters are not like Western fighters, they don't have targeting pods or wide variety of laser guided munitions to use against ground elements.

The Armenians, at least till now, shows their willingness to throw everything they had to the battlefield no matter how futile. What makes the Flankers so special is a question that need to be answered. I'm sure that they've used their SU-25s stationed in Armenia around Karabakh proper before.

 

[Gary]

3. Although Russian planes are called multi-role, their true multi-role capabilities are pretty limited, Su-30SM has very little munition to use against ground targets. Russian fighters are not like Western fighters, they don't have targeting pods or wide variety of laser guided munitions to use against ground elements.

I mean in Air to Air role. You know hunting drones.

 

[Azeri441]

I mean in Air to Air role. You know hunting drones.

Small targets, they wouldn't be able to use BVR missiles to hunt such drones and most likely would need to get a visual lock, which means entering the battlespace with a large presence of Air Defense systems, and they only have 4 Su-30SMs, additionally, Azerbaijan can takeout the airfield if Armenia uses Su-30SMs against Azerbaijan.

 

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1320248666406424576