Kremlin warns US against 'provocative' moves toward China

[xizhimen]

Kremlin warns US against 'provocative' moves toward China， Russia offers strong support to China amid tensions over Taiwan​

The Kremlin has offered strong support to China amid tensions over Taiwan, warning the United States against any “provocative steps” that could exacerbate the situation

By AP

Friday, Jul 29, 2022 6:00

MOSCOW (AP) - The Kremlin on Friday offered strong support to China amid the tensions over Taiwan, warning the United States against any “provocative" moves that could exacerbate the situation.

Chinese President Xi Jinping warned against meddling in China's dealings with Taiwan during a phone call Thursday with U.S. President Joe Biden,
Speaking in a call with reporters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia staunchly supports China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

“We believe that no other country has the right to call (that) into doubt or take any provocative steps,” Peskov said.

He warned the U.S. against “destructive” moves, adding that “such behavior on the international arena could only exacerbate tensions as the world is already overloaded with regional and global problems.”

The tough statement reflects close ties between Moscow and Beijing, which have grown stronger since Russia sent its troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24. China has refused to criticize Russia's action, blaming the U.S. and NATO for provoking Moscow, and has blasted punishing sanctions imposed on Moscow.

The Chinese government gave no indication Xi and Biden discussed possible plans by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan, which the ruling Communist Party says has no right to conduct foreign relations. But Xi rejected “interference by external forces” that might encourage Taiwan to try to make its decades-old de facto independence permanent.

“Resolutely safeguarding China's national sovereignty and territorial integrity is the firm will of the more than 1.4 billion Chinese people,” foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said Friday. “Those who play with fire will perish by it.”

The tough language from Xi, who usually tries to appear to be above political disputes and makes blandly positive public comments, suggested Chinese leaders might believe Washington didn't understand the seriousness of previous warnings about Taiwan.

Taiwan and China split in 1949 following a civil war that ended with a communist victory on the mainland. They have no official relations but are linked by billions of dollars of trade and investment. Both sides say they are one country but disagree over which government is entitled to national leadership.

Kremlin warns US against 'provocative' moves toward China

MOSCOW (AP) - The Kremlin on Friday offered strong support to China amid the tensions over Taiwan, warning the United States against any “provocative" moves that could exacerbate the situation. Chine...

www.the-journal.com

 

[Gary]

No disrespect, but Russia is irrelevant in the Pacific theater. It's getting irrelevant in Europe too as the war drags on.

 

[xizhimen]

No disrespect, but Russia is irrelevant in the Pacific theater. It's getting irrelevant in Europe too as the war drags on.

Russia has Pacific fleet in the sea of Japan and it they still have the ability to regularly sail circling Japan.

 

[xizhimen]

We should not just dismiss Russia because of Ukraine, neither should we dismiss US just because of Afhanistan.

 

[Gary]

Russia has Pacific fleet in the sea of Japan and it they still have the ability to regularly sail circling Japan.

It's still irrelevant, the Russian Pacific fleet aren't the best fleet Russia has at the moment and many of them are in dire need of repairs.

The (Russian) Pacific fleet could only rely on a few Stereguschiy class and a select nuclear + non AIP submarines, doesn't really count as a threat towards what the US and its allies could bring to the battlefield.

The Russian Far Eastern air force based in Khabarovsk are in even dire position to challenge the US/Allies airpower. So that's just it, empty talk which Moscow can't walk. Other than moral support, there's very little Russia could offer for China in regards to Taiwan. Russia wont sacrifice its little remaining fleet for a war it knows it can't win. Simple as that.

 

[xizhimen]

A friend in need is a friend indeed

Russia supports China against US interference in relation to Taiwan​

Moscow, Jul 29 (Prensa Latina) Russia's presidential spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, stated that Russia fully supports China in regards to the Taiwan issue and rejects any attempt of interference by the United States.

• July 29, 2022
• CDT10:23 (GMT) -0400
• Published by: Luis Linares Petrov

“We are absolutely behind China. We respect China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and believe that no country in the world should have the right to question or take measures of a provocative nature or otherwise,” the spokesman told reporters.

Peskov added that any kind of provocation regarding the Taiwan issue “can only create additional tension.”

He also warned that Washington’s policy regarding Taiwan could create further friction in the world.

“Russia is convinced that such behavior in the international arena can cause more tension, the world is already suffering from many regional and global problems. Of course, these steps can only have a destructive character,” Peskov added.

The statements by the Kremlin spokesman respond to the worsening of the situation around Taiwan as a result of the intention expressed last week by the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress, Nancy Pelosi, to visit Taipei as part of her Asian tour, something which China strongly opposed.

Russia supports China against US interference in relation to Taiwan - Prensa Latina

Moscow, Jul 29 (Prensa Latina) Russia's presidential spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, stated that Russia fully supports China in regards to the Taiwan issue and rejects any attempt of interference by the United States.

www.plenglish.com

 

[xizhimen]

Russia wont sacrifice its little remaining fleet for a war it knows it can't win. Simple as that.

And do you think US will shed their blood for Taiwan, which is offically recognized by US government as part of China. If till today US and Nato still don't dare to step in the Ukraine war, the country is offically recogized by all governments as an independent country, what made you think US will go to fight for Taiwan?

 

[Gary]

And do you think US will shed their blood for Taiwan, which is offically recognized by US government as part of China. If till today US and Nato still don't dare to step in the Ukraine war, the country is offically recogized by all governments as an independent country, what made you think US will go to fight for Taiwan?

yes, Biden has slipped his tongue multiple times on this one

Because unlike Ukraine, Taiwan security has a DIRECT implication on US interest.

 

[xizhimen]

yes, Biden has slipped his tongue multiple times on this one

Because unlike Ukraine, Taiwan security has a DIRECT implication on US interest.

Dementia is a common problem for old people and US government has to clarify that nothing changed over US policy over Taiwan multiple times for this old man.
The chain of command in this country is so messed up now.

White House, Clarifying Biden Remark, Says Taiwan Policy Hasn’t Changed

The president, asked if the U.S. would come to Taiwan’s defense if China attacked, had said: "Yes, we have a commitment to do that.”

www.wsj.com

US State Department Walks Back Biden's Unusually Strong Comments on Taiwan

U.S. President Joe Biden and the State Department said that nothing has changed in U.S. policy toward Taiwan after Biden's unusually hardline statement Monday of military support for the self-governed island prompted anger from China and gave a boost to the western Pacific island where many...

www.voanews.com

 

[Gary]

Dementia is a common problem for old people and US government has to clarify that nothing changed over US policy over Taiwan multiple times for this old man.

White House, Clarifying Biden Remark, Says Taiwan Policy Hasn’t Changed

The president, asked if the U.S. would come to Taiwan’s defense if China attacked, had said: "Yes, we have a commitment to do that.”

www.wsj.com

That's right, because he has Dementia, he clearly struggles sometimes to keep tight about US secret commitments on Taiwan. A strategic ambiguity that successive US presidents (excluding Bush) before him hid perfectly.

In 2001, Bush was asked if the United States was obligated to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack, and he responded, “Yes, we do . . . and the Chinese must understand that. Yes, I would.” He followed up by saying that he would do “whatever it took to help Taiwan defend herself.” That answer inspired Biden to write an op-ed criticizing Bush’s statements. Biden wrote, “The United States has not been obligated to defend Taiwan since we abrogated the 1954 Mutual Defense Treaty signed by President Eisenhower and ratified by the Senate.” Biden added, “As a matter of diplomacy, there is a huge difference between reserving the right to use force and obligating ourselves, a priori, to come to the defense of Taiwan. The president should not cede to Taiwan, much less to China, the ability automatically to draw us into a war across the Taiwan Strait.” Biden even quoted parts of the Act, saying that they did not constitute the requirement to defend Taiwan.

For Biden, who during the Bush administration served on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and at one point served as the committee’s chairperson, to eventually come around to the Bush position should speak volumes about the importance that he now places on the security of Taiwan. Biden knows what he is saying and the ramifications of such a commitment since US involvement in the defense of Taiwan would result in American casualties. Bottom line: Biden means exactly what he says when it comes to Taiwan.

Believe Biden When He Says America Will Defend Taiwan - Foreign Policy Research Institute

During a press conference in Tokyo on May 23, a reporter asked President Joseph Biden, “Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it

www.fpri.org

 

[xizhimen]

The whole of Taiwan is within China's artillery fire coverage, if US ships sailed into this narrow strait to fight for Taiwan, they'll just become helpless sitting duck for China to slaughter, no Chinese navy even needed.

 

[Gary]

The whole of Taiwan is within China's artillery fire coverage, if US ships sailed into this narrow strait to fight for Taiwan, they'll just become helpless sitting duck for China to slaughter

Fun fact, no they don't. First of all you need to understand the concept of accuracy and precision.

to hit a carrier by measures of observational error some might guess that you'll need high accuracy/high precision (HA/HP),

, but that would be a mistake since high velocity descending munitions will find it hard to achieve HA/HP, ships are MOBILE rather than FIXED target. To ensure a missile hits, against this moving target, you will still employ HA/HP but you would launch your missiles in a successive manner. If the first missile is successful, then the other missiles will be wasted but it would be written off as a necessary cost of the mission. The other weapons system that employs HA/HP is a sniper, but unlike a sniper a descending hypersonic/ballistic missile don't have the luxury of TIME, the faster the projectile dive, the lesser the time it need to do re-calculations of the target, and the faster the projectile goes (as in case in hypersonics and ballistic missile ) the more stress are applied to the body even when it tries to do a basic movement using the surface control of the body.

Hence you'll likely end with high accuracy low precision (HA/LP), means multiple warheads will have to descend at one particular are (sq meters) at the same time. The question is, how much warheads would you throw at ~100-1000 sqm of area to ensure a hit on a single ship ? We're talking a lot.

Then there's the issue of shipboard countermeasures, both kinetic and non kinetic means. A hypersonic vehicle (both glide and ballistic) have one PHYSICAL characteristic, they're design to ensure the lowest drag possible against the air. Which means that most doesn't have the real estate to accommodate extensive on board sensors to ensure a kill during the descend phase to target. And if it employs radar guidance, you'll have less real estate inside to accomodate powerful ones, as the antenna size of the radar plate could be detrimental to the range it can achieve (power-aperture product). and oh one more thing the surface clutter will work to the advantage of the defender.

Does that mean that it can't be done ? off course not, it CAN be done, but its not as easy as some people might think.

The closest nation to be able to achieve this is the Chinese, and yet we don't know if they're successful at it yet, only time will tell. If you look at the Chinese test arena you'll see a relatively simple track for those carriers.

modern aircraft carriers are more nimble that those tracked carriers you see in the Xinjiang desert.

Now try hit ships as nimble as this, defended with both electronic and kinetic countermeasures:

I mean they don't look really worried at all

U.S. Admiral: China Can ‘Keep Pouring Money’ Into Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles - USNI News

China can continue spending money on anti-ship ballistic missiles, but it might not be the capability needed to win if a conflict broke out between the U.S. and China, the admiral overseeing Navy intelligence said Wednesday. Vice Adm. Jeffrey Trussler, the deputy chief of naval operations for...

news.usni.org

The US would only need to ensure that Taiwan Eastern side to remain open, supply Taiwan with the necessary tools and Taiwan would win the war. This is because simply you only have 2 months a year to do an amphibious assault on Taiwan. I know when, Taiwan knows when and Pentagon also knows when. Once that time frame is pass, say kiss goodbye to any dreams for Taiwan conquest for another year.

Now China ain't really going to achieve naval superiority or even naval supremacy pass the 1st island chain. Not when the US Navy themselves that will guard those waters.

 

[xizhimen]

But of course no war is coming, from 1949 to 1999, China waited for 50 years to retake Macau from Portugal, China has a lot of patience, China always see things from the economic perspective, for an action that may cause severe economic damage to both sides, China almost never goes for it.

 

[xizhimen]

Fun fact, no they don't. First of all you need to understand the concept of accuracy and precision.


Now China ain't really going to achieve naval superiority or even naval supremacy pass the 1st island chain. Not when the US Navy themselves that will guard those waters.

How about overwhelming fire power with high precision?


Zhou Chenming, a researcher with the Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank in Beijing, said the range of the rocket launch system had been extended to 500km. That would mean it could hit any Indian military base along the Line of Actual Control – the de facto boundary – from Chinese-controlled territory.

They had shown that “the PCL191 brigade could be deployed anywhere in the country, from the coast to the Himalayas, and take on challenges like the border dispute with India, or even a Taiwan contingency”, according to Song Zhongping, a former PLA instructor and military commentator.

 

[xizhimen]

Land based artillery, missiles, fighters and bombers fully cover the whole of Taiwan strait, how big a chance do you think US war ships can survival the saturation attack form all directions?

 

[xizhimen]

The US would only need to ensure that Taiwan Eastern side to remain open, supply Taiwan with the necessary tools and Taiwan would win the war.

Do you know how many Taiwanese they themselves believe they can win the war if it really broke out?

 

[Gary]

How about overwhelming fire power with high precision?

That means you haven't read the post above. As explained HA/HP for striking a mobile objects (ships) while travelling at a very high speed means less time to correct and maneuver.

HA/HP is out of question.

Zhou Chenming, a researcher with the Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank in Beijing, said the range of the rocket launch system had been extended to 500km. That would mean it could hit any Indian military base along the Line of Actual Control – the de facto boundary – from Chinese-controlled territory.

They had shown that “the PCL191 brigade could be deployed anywhere in the country, from the coast to the Himalayas, and take on challenges like the border dispute with India, or even a Taiwan contingency”, according to Song Zhongping, a former PLA instructor and military commentator.

This doesn't tell anything about hitting a moving object that could turn instantly when needed. and those objects are defended by kinetic and electronic means. Sorry try again.

Land based artillery, missiles, fighters and bombers fully cover the whole of Taiwan strait

1. The US only need to ensure Taiwan Eastern ports open, the carriers need not to enter the Taiwan strait
2. If necessary, the F-35s combat radius of 1200km meant that the carriers could comfortably loiter outside the 1st island chain while providing CAP inside Taiwan's airspace
3. Taiwan itself is heavily defended with SAMs

Once China miss those two months period (which itself are separated by 6 months in between), there will be no amphibious assault into Taiwan.

At that point China could only harass Taiwan, without touching foot on Taiwan. Kinda like how Russia regularly harass Kyiv with missiles but couldn't set foot in Kyiv itself.

 

[xizhimen]

That means you haven't read the post above. As explained HA/HP for striking a mobile objects (ships) while travelling at a very high speed means less time to correct and maneuver.

HA/HP is out of question.


This doesn't tell anything about hitting a moving object that could turn instantly when needed. and those objects are defended by kinetic and electronic means. Sorry try again.

1. The US only need to ensure Taiwan Eastern ports open, the carriers need not to enter the Taiwan strait
2. If necessary, the F-35s combat radius of 1200km meant that the carriers could comfortably loiter outside the 1st island chain while providing CAP inside Taiwan's airspace
3. Taiwan itself is heavily defended with SAMs

Once China miss those two months period (which itself are separated by 6 months in between), there will be no amphibious assault into Taiwan.

At that point China could only harass Taiwan, without touching foot on Taiwan. Kinda like how Russia regularly harass Kyiv with missiles but couldn't set foot in Kyiv itself.

Do you know how many Taiwanese they themselves believe they can win the war if it really broke out? there are many on the street interviews you can check. As I mentioned , by only artillery fire, China can wiped out the island in hours, but China won't do it. As for US, they are just bluffing, they are going to do nothing, they are not stupid.

Here is a post from another forum clearly shows what average Americans think US would do over Taiwan

Honestly it's the perfect time for China to invade Taiwan. From what I understand, it would be no cakewalk, but the U.S. is in a weaker position than China is likely to see again in decades. Our economy is stumbling, we have projected weakness with our Afghanistan debacle and our feckless, token response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and our President is a joke. Biden said he'd defend Taiwan and he literally flipflops on everything, so he'd likely do nothing.

I mean honestly, is the American public be ready to endure the pain of war with China over Taiwan? Sanctions would be hard to do because our economy is so dependent on Chinese goods. War would be the only option, and I don't think we have the stomach for it right now. If China calls our bluff, I bet we do next to nothing.

 

[xizhimen]

At least 20% of Taiwan's population support renuification with China, enough to make a 5th column inside Taiwan for PLA.