The final version of the U.S. National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for 2023 was released on Dec. 6. The bill combines the separate drafts by the House of Representatives and the Senate and will be submitted to the U.S. president for approval.
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The F-16V acquisition will be realized through FMS, a U.S. government program to transfer weapons and military system in a government-to-government fashion. In order to facilitate the FMS process, the recipient country submits an official letter of request (LoR) to the U.S. government. Upon its receipt, a military, financial and political assessment process starts, which is assisted by several meetings by military, government, and industry representatives from both sides. Depending on the size and complexity of the request, this process may take several months, if not years. After conclusion of the assessment, the U.S. government prepares a letter of offer and acceptance (LOA) and the U.S. State Department approves the sale and notifies Congress of the program for final approval.
Depending on the size of the program and whether or not the recipient country is a NATO member or a major non-NATO ally, the Congress has a certain number of days to approve the sale. In Turkiye's case, this period is 15 days. If the Congress does not raise any objection within that time period, the sale is considered automatically approved.
Ankara submitted the official LoR to the U.S. government this May. Under normal circumstances, the assessment and preparation of the LOA should take at least 6 months, and considering past sales of equivalent size, it could take as much as 18. This means that, again, under normal circumstances, the congressional notification should be ready by the end of this year or maybe in the first quarter of 2023. This further complicates the issue, since Turkiye will be in an election period during that time of the year. The U.S. government may be reluctant to speed up the process in order to not be seen as intervening in Turkish politics. On the other hand, Turkish officials rightfully stated their desire to see concrete action from the U.S. side for approval of the sale. Additionally, there is the issue of a possible Turkish operation in Syria.
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Biden may need to use his veto power if it doesn't pass the foreign relations committee (FRC is chaired by Bob Menendez). Menendez has a hate boner against us, after receiving millions in lobbying from Greece,