You are forgetting that Azerbaijan will also have plenty of time to reinforce it's military. Compared to Armenia it can spend better. If those areas except Stepanakert really goes back to Azerbaijan then only few things they have to do which are sealing off the border completely in those liberated areas, building infrastructures, fortifying their defenses and increasing Azeri population in that area.
Azerbaijan can buy more weapons from Turkey, Israel and Russia, specially they have to focus on their air force and air defense. No doubt Turkey will be great help for weapons. And Armenia could still attack Azerbaijan even if they didn't sign the treaty just like Azerbaijan did after decades. After 5/10 years Azerbaijan should deny Russian peacekeepers. If Turkish peacekeepers are there then it shouldn't be any problem for Azerbaijan to completely liberate that area in 5/10 years.
Yes this is true. It depends on what Russia decides to do w.r.t Armenia.
Armenia is quite poor country in the region....highly dependent on its diaspora...and also the crucial time in USSR breakup to make its moves it did then (again with lot of Russian and diaspora assistance). The terrain of the region also helped Armenia for a long while to defend (this is precisely why they held onto lot of AZ outside of N-K as these aided in that).
But now Azerbaijan has 3 great advantages:
- 3x population
- Far larger economy (due to energy sector especially) and growing faster = way more funds for military
- Turkish brotherhood (and Turkey economy and military industry is much more developed than it was in the early 90s).
These all came together to surmount the challenges when push came to shove this year (or all clear given by Russia to punish Pashinyan...whatever the exact combination of these was).
So it was matter of time...and it remains matter of time going forward for re-establishment of Azeri sovereignty on all its land.
The X-factor is thus what Russia and Armenia relationship will develop to be now and if Russia sees anything to gain from a conflict restart down the road.
But I doubt it because I think a lot can simply be achieved by AZ showing its responsible peaceful party w.r.t the Armenian folks in N-K....and that things can go back to how they were before if you give peace and time a chance. That will pull the carpet from underneath the Armenian-extremist position that has established very strongly among them...at least in eyes of other parties. This would make it difficult for Russia, as it would be a blatant aggressor to upset that...and also severely damage economic and political connections it already has and could cultivate further with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
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