My Twitter and blog is somewhat of an anomaly for the English-language Iranian military sphere. Hence the DefenceHub team kindly granted it to me as they did to Oryx and Hakan Kiliç.
The economic sanctions are put in place by the Americans, not the Europeans (at least not to the extent that it makes any difference). Therefore, there is no need to be overt about Iran's ability to hit Europe (with a Khorramshahr fitted with a lighter warhead). Iran will reveal that capability if and when it needs to.
Thanks for the info. I will bear that in mind if I decide to obtain the same tag.
From what little I can gather, having followed Iranian regime propaganda if you like, and the propaganda from the other side, I am led to believe that despite emphatic claims of grand technological breakthroughs and scientific achievements, Iranian regime still lacks a
critical mass of indigenous technologies and industrial might to convert its intent into deployable systems.
It is for this reason that the regime
needs trade with Europe and the West to continue while the reverse is obviously not true. With a tiny/insignificant population of approximately 80 million, Iran (or Turkey or Egypt or any other regional country) is not in a position to develop and produce every single required item for its domestic civilian and defence markets.
Prominent examples would be computer chips, oil and gas exploration tools, medical devices and aircrafts and related components. There are many other specialized devices such as scientific devices (chromatography systems, for example), software and machinery used in their production where Iran or any regional country would be severely lacking.
Those are the pitfalls of a tiny population. A country with a tiny population trying to challenge the USA, the leader of the Western world, is a mistake for precisely that reason.
If I am not mistaken, Khorramshahr is the infamous Musudan ballistic missile used by North Korea. In effect, the Iranian regime is
still telling the world it has failed to develop a ballistic missile system capable of travelling farther than 2,000 km.
A country without a huge population has
no chance whatsoever of challenging the Western world. Unless you are able to churn out the Newtons, Gausses, Eulers and other extraordinarily intelligent European individuals by the hundreds, a smaller country stands no chance against a developed country that is multiple times bigger. Nowadays, no country produces intellectual stalwarts of such calibre. Absolute population size, therefore, remains the best determinant of a country's geopolitical potential. Exceptions remain. Indonesia, with the world's fourth largest population, is a prominent exception to that rule. The primary reason it is an exception to the rule is the relative lack of advanced technologies developed by its people or acquired through legal or unlawful means from abroad. Their population is also severely underrepresented in global efforts for advancing the state of the art in the sciences or in technology.
Therefore, the only countries willing and able - in some shape, way or form - of challenging Western hegemony are the most populous ones. The obvious candidate is China on account of its huge population. The less obvious candidate would be India, though owing to its lower development stage in comparison, it would take a much longer time to pose a challenge of some sorts to the Western order. That assumes India would be able to challenge the Western order
at all at any time in the future.
As a legacy of the past and the successor state of the USSR, with a permanent membership of the UNSC and perhaps the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, Russia provides a geopolitical and military challenge in many respects but not a comprehensive challenger to Western hegemony due to a lack of required population. With its middling 140 million people, Russia can play second fiddle to bigger established powers and perhaps, much bigger, emerging powers.
Going back to Iran, the distance from Diego Garcia to Iran is greater than 3,500 km. Without testing and validating the test results, is there a definitive method of determining if Iran can target and disable that island for military use against Iran?
To cut the discussion short, the most definitive way of deterring the United States from military action is targeting its population (countervalue) in a major way. Let's say, elimination of >90% of US population in the first hours of
any conflict serves as a very effective deterrent.
Counterforce targeting may appear appealing to unassuming lurkers on web fora but very expensive and less effective in providing deterrence.
By default, due to the geographical locations of the USA, any system that can target continental USA can target anywhere in Europe if launched from Iran.
There is just no convenient way of escaping this reality.
By avoiding such tests and revealing such information to its
own public , the Iranian regime sows the seeds of discontent while their economy is floundering under sanctions, mismanagement, corruption, embargo and experiencing propaganda warfare, destabilization attempts, subversion and possible regime change, despite whatever the official mantra of the US or Israeli regimes may be.
Think of the Iranian public suffering from such difficulties and also
fearing for their lives, their family members, their heritage, their religion, their country, their existence due to a possible strike, invasion and subsequent occupation of Iran. In much the same way that its immediate neighbours to the West and the East had suffered prior to the Iranian regime signing JCPOA.
Would those people feel comfortable and hopeful about living in Iran? About furthering their careers, businesses and lives in Iran? Or would they migrate abroad for greener pastures? The answer should be obvious. We see that in emigration statistics from Iran.
The Iranian regime obviously missed a trick or two in
not developing, producing and testing Intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear bombs decades ago.
I believe the Iranian regime is not necessarily led by the most intelligent and/or prudent leaders. They make a lot of miscalculations.
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