TR 2023 Turkish presidential election

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Anastasius

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“2 days left in the last 10 days. Let me give my final warning. Fahrettin Altun, Serhat and their teammates Çağatay and Evren; The dark web world you are trying to deal with will fall into the hands of foreign intelligence. Playing Cambridge Analytica is beyond your capacity, boys. THIS IS MY FINAL WARNING!”


“Big brother-in-law and his crew, I assume they have DDoS prepared from the darknet, to render some kind of sites unusable on election day.”


“Not only that, I think he's talking about the prevention ads to be placed in various places to influence the election results, the elder brother of the groom is in charge of that job, they have the biggest prevention advertising cake, he put his own staff at the head of TT.”
...did KK just admit that foreign intelligence is going to be running interference for him in the election?

That's like...Biden levels of "oopsie, I said the quiet thing out loud".

Can't believe I'm starting to prefer Erdogan to this guy.
 

Heartbang

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“2 days left in the last 10 days. Let me give my final warning. Fahrettin Altun, Serhat and their teammates Çağatay and Evren; The dark web world you are trying to deal with will fall into the hands of foreign intelligence. Playing Cambridge Analytica is beyond your capacity, boys. THIS IS MY FINAL WARNING!”


“Big brother-in-law and his crew, I assume they have DDoS prepared from the darknet, to render some kind of sites unusable on election day.”


“Not only that, I think he's talking about the prevention ads to be placed in various places to influence the election results, the elder brother of the groom is in charge of that job, they have the biggest prevention advertising cake, he put his own staff at the head of TT.”
Just... WTF?!
 

TheInsider

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I really wonder let's say what he said is true what can he do? Will he show a knife to Erdo? Will he start a civil war? How many people will follow him? He should be preparing the necessary countermeasures right now rather than playing the badass.
 

Lool

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It seems that this year's election will witness the highest voter turnout in Turkish history both abroad and within the country
@TheInsider @dBSPL any thoughts about how the preference of the voters abroad will be? Saw many videos indicating super long lines of voters and many articles state that KK will have the highest number of abroad votes; however, considering the political affiliation of such sites, I wanted to know the opinions of actual Turks

Others are free to share as well
 

sh. Abdj

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I have a questions to Ask here because as a foreigner I can't understand if this is not clear or I am am lacking some information:

Erdogan is known in most Islamic country because of his great sayings and doings, but still when I go to Turkey I find Turkish people are 50%/50% about him. Is it not clear that :
1. The opposition is promoting policies that will cause more ethnical problems and bring back the fight to inside Turkey.

2. They will destroy the Military industry on the long term

3. They will lose many relations Turkey had built with thousands of influencing people, political parties, and even Islamic charity organizations around the world

4. Allow all Turkey enemies into Nato like they did before.

5. Put laws that allow LGBT and destroy family ...

6. Free the People who wanted to make military coup.

7. Prepare for implimanting the old laws by changing the Government employees who hold authority
....

While what they can benefit Turkey?

1. Allowing more express of Diversity, which could look nice first but prepare for bigger problems in the future.

2. Allowing Turkey back into F-35 Program and allowing the country to buy other kinds of new weapons which will open the door of undermining the local Arm industry by saying it is cheaper to buy it than re inventing it and it will come with better quality also.

3. Opening new relationship with new secular parties in nearby countries who hate Turkey as country and as people and losing those having idiology praising Turkey and its past and viewing its people as brothers.

4. Having some countries as new friends for few weeks or months so they can enter nato or get something from the country.

5. Having more personal freedom which will backfire because many will use it to talk about sexual freedom and Armenian getting historically oppressed by Turk,and Kurds being opressed....

6. Some people who some Turk see they don't deserve to be in Jail just because they tries to overthrow Erdogan and maybe kill him in public will be freed, which will lead to encouraging Military coups to come back.

7. Bringing the new Political parties members to the governmental institutions which will bring new blood to the system but this will be just attempt to revive the old deep state.
 

Bozan

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I have a questions to Ask here because as a foreigner I can't understand if this is not clear or I am am lacking some information:

Erdogan is known in most Islamic country because of his great sayings and doings, but still when I go to Turkey I find Turkish people are 50%/50% about him. Is it not clear that :
1. The opposition is promoting policies that will cause more ethnical problems and bring back the fight to inside Turkey.

2. They will destroy the Military industry on the long term

3. They will lose many relations Turkey had built with thousands of influencing people, political parties, and even Islamic charity organizations around the world

4. Allow all Turkey enemies into Nato like they did before.

5. Put laws that allow LGBT and destroy family ...

6. Free the People who wanted to make military coup.

7. Prepare for implimanting the old laws by changing the Government employees who hold authority
....

While what they can benefit Turkey?

1. Allowing more express of Diversity, which could look nice first but prepare for bigger problems in the future.

2. Allowing Turkey back into F-35 Program and allowing the country to buy other kinds of new weapons which will open the door of undermining the local Arm industry by saying it is cheaper to buy it than re inventing it and it will come with better quality also.

3. Opening new relationship with new secular parties in nearby countries who hate Turkey as country and as people and losing those having idiology praising Turkey and its past and viewing its people as brothers.

4. Having some countries as new friends for few weeks or months so they can enter nato or get something from the country.

5. Having more personal freedom which will backfire because many will use it to talk about sexual freedom and Armenian getting historically oppressed by Turk,and Kurds being opressed....

6. Some people who some Turk see they don't deserve to be in Jail just because they tries to overthrow Erdogan and maybe kill him in public will be freed, which will lead to encouraging Military coups to come back.

7. Bringing the new Political parties members to the governmental institutions which will bring new blood to the system but this will be just attempt to revive the old deep state.

Muslims that think Erdogan is a great Muslim is misguided. He is like Sisi and the others
 

Lool

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Muslims that think Erdogan is a great Muslim is misguided. He is like Sisi and the others
If he was like Sisi then he wouldnt be suffering rn in campaigns etc and the opposition would have been beheaded by now
The current Turks appear to not know what a dictator looks like, lool
 

Heartbang

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If he was like Sisi then he wouldnt be suffering rn in campaigns etc and the opposition would have been beheaded by now
The current Turks appear to not know what a dictator looks like, lool
Agreed. Even foreign ambassadors to our nation think like this.
Getting high on their own supply, I think.
 

Agha Sher

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Yup
It seems that the initial assessment of Erdogan winning by a miniscule assessment was wrong
Kilicdaroglu will win since all polls indicate so

Will you stop your rant? Nearly half of all polls (often the larger ones) indicate that Erdogan will win.
 

Agha Sher

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Which polls?
Share sources if you may

Wikipedia has a good overview of most of the polls being conducted.


Results are shown for 1st round and a potential 2nd round.

Note that the average of polls shows a complete tie now.

Erdogan is a master of elections and campaigning while his opponent is clueless. Erdogan has effectively closed a 15% percentage point gap in 1 month. There are two weeks till election. Pretty confident that Erdogan will come out on top. (I wasn't confident 2-4 weeks ago)
 

Fairon

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Most of the polls are done with 2-3000( every poll writes the actual number) people so it is really easy to achive the results you want and it seems that both alliances are doing this. (or block publishing the polls that shows undesired results)

Sample size is a good indication when judging poll results but considering the fast changing nature of opinions the polls with the large sample size usually lagging behind to reflect latest opinions. (because of the time you need to conduct survey)

Just keep that in mind and don't trust most of the published polls.
 

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Sample size is independent of population size; this is a counter-intuitive result of statistics, but it is true. You can look up any polling from much larger countries like U.S. and you will see the samples for polls are between 1000-2000 people. To have a margin of error of ±3% with confidence level of 95%, you need 1067 samples, and this doesn't change with population size (technically it does, but for all intents and purposes, in elections it doesn't). 2400 will get you ±2%; to get to ±1%, you need 9604. As the difference between ±1 and ±2 is not big enough to warrant a huge increase of expenditure to increase the sample from 2400 to 9600, most go with something between 1000-2000, and get something close to ±2.5% margin of error.

This all assumes sampling is random. Sampling is never random (with people). That's why you get multiple polling companies; and they try different strategies to model a random sample. As a result, experienced polling companies will use information about past elections, demographic spread, rural voters, silent blocks, etc. to get as close to a random sampling as they can. This is why not all polls are created equal.

In Turkey, There are several well-known experienced non-partisan polling companies who have proven themselves in the past. There are also very transparently partisan ones that you can discard very easily as they are party polls (Avrasya and TAG for example are officially CHP partisan polls; on the other side you have AREDA (owned by Erdoğan's son-in-law's family) and also SONAR owned by Hakan Bayrakçı a known AKP partisan, and OPTIMAR, GENAR, TÜSİAR). These you should just discard if you're not after consoling yourself.

Another factor is polling companies that sprout up like mushrooms every election cycle, do one poll and then die out nowhere to be found again next election, giving their place to more brand new unknown entities coming up with anomalies. You discard these as well.

Now for a foreign observer, to be aware of all these nuances, different actors and their histories is almost impossible. This is why they say ignore polling in Turkey. There are also my compatriots who also say ignore polling, because they don't know any of these facts, statistical nuances or polling company details, have a cursory look at polls and when the results are not congruent, dismiss all polling as useless.

For someone who can read this situation, coming up with a reasonable prediction is very easy, since fortunately for a data obsessed person like me, Turkey is still dynamic enough of a society to have a slew of scientific independent polling companies with pedigree. And their polls are quite close to each other; and they have been close for the past elections as well, within the margin of error. This election, up until now, is outside the margin of error.
 
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Rooxbar

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Do they care ? No. Because a large mass prepared to make deal with devils if devil was against Erdoğan
Believe me Erdoğan would, will, has and did try to make the same deal. HDP rejected the deal because their appraisal was not to side with the loser. If a deal was reached, all the consolidated voter block of AKP (around 35%), would then go on to tell everybody else how this move is a great move towards peace. HDP, and its predecessor BDP, were given ground to establish and grow themselves and operate safely, all during AKP rule. If AKP and its voters were so much against HDP, why does HDP still exist and has existed for all these years? HDP has 10% vote, and every side which isn't up by 10%, will risk it to gain the 10% to win.

The main difference between AKP and the opposition aligning with HDP is that, the opposition vote is less consolidated (as it comprises of more educated voters prone to a disease called "free independent thought"), and a gain of that 10% will also come with a loss of several percentage points. If it was AKP aligning with HDP, AKP voters would have zero problems with that, since historically conservatives trust their leaders to pursue the ulterior motives they ascribe to them. This is prudent analysis by them, since they do indeed deliver, at least on cultural fronts, for their conservative voters in the end. So there's that trust.

I think emphasizing this relation and link between the opposition and HDP, is a good campaign strategy for AKP due to the sensibilities around this issue. It's a double-edged sword though, as too much emphasis and some undecided voters might sense a desperation and a trivialization of the issue (as many already do with regards to FETÖ, as for the apolitical normal person the constant blaming of this entity has almost become a meme). So there's a fine balance between doing it right and overdoing it. It also may signal to the one-issue voter who cares about economy primarily, that there's no chance for change in that regard as the campaign plans don't seem to offer anything relating to that issue. Hence, the strategists in AKP hq should think it through about how much they stress this point. As far as I know, there's still anywhere between 5%-10% undecided voters. The battle is for these people. One side has "Kılıçdaroğlu is Öcalan" and the other side promises a chance for "better economy". Let's watch them battle it out.
 
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Profchaos

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...did KK just admit that foreign intelligence is going to be running interference for him in the election?

That's like...Biden levels of "oopsie, I said the quiet thing out loud".

Can't believe I'm starting to prefer Erdogan to this guy.
Do you have a problem with understanding turkish?
 
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