Indonesia Casual Discussion Warkop Indonesia

[Madokafc]

Singapore jelas bunuh diri kalo mau mulai perang duluan versus Indonesia, mereka bakalan kehilangan dukungan internasional apapun Cassus belli dan dalil yang mereka pakai. Kedua, Indonesia with all of her weakness in military would not be willing to be cornered into negotiation table, especially when being attacked and invaded in the first place, siapapun politisi yang berkuasa tidak akan mungkin mau maju ke meja perundingan kalo tidak ingin didemo warga dan di impeach di parlemen dan partai politiknya mendapatkan stigma negatif selamanya sebagai partai pengecut dan pengkhianat. Lebih besar kemungkinannya Indonesia untuk mobilisasi seluruh sumber daya dan kirim misi diplomasi keseluruh Dunia untuk membeli persenjataan dan logistik berapapun biayanya dan besar hutangnya ketimbang milih ke meja perundingan, preseden untuk hal ini sudah ada di era Soekarno dan kemungkinan besar akan diulang lagi dalam skala lingkup yang lebih besar.

 

[Gary]

An interesting war game about war erupting in the SCS, all started with anxiety, confusion...and then abrupt military escalation.

In ID v Sing case, it doesn't matter who started a (hypothetical) war...if shooting starts, even if its because of happy trigger case, there will be an escalation...and Singapore from the look of it has the escalation dominance. War will be decided in the air and in the sea, before the two nations soldiers even stare at each other eyeballs.

Please do note, if people are banking on an immidiate wholesale nationwide response, the war will still likely be over...by foreign intervention (likely culprit : USA).

The US (or even China) will not allow both to continue the kinetic war in perpetuity...that means war will likely be sharp and short, the kind of war that plays in the advantage of Singapore. The same style of war that historically smaller (but more sophisticated) nations bet against a larger nation (case : Sino-Jap war 1898, Russo-Jap war 1905). In Qing China case, once the Beiyang fleet is out of commission, even though China is technically larger and has a larger manpower reserve, it didn't stop them from capitulation and in the end forced to sign a humiliating treaty.

IF bulk of Indonesian air force and navy got decimated, our war effort would stop regardless of the angry population insistance on continuing the war. war at sea and in the air is very equipment vital and technology dependant. Those who have larger, more sophisticated and trained assets usually comes out on top. Like what Japan demonstrate in 1989.

The doubt that China could secure the air and sea around Taiwan is the very doubt that prevented China from setting foot in Taiwan. What makes people think that we could continue war in perpetuity without the necessary equipment and technology to keep the war running ?

We are an arms importer, that means to continue the war we are at the mercy of nations selling arms to us. US will not be selling us more F-16/15EX ? spares to continue the war, because it just happens that Singapore has made itself an indispensable ally to US foreign policy in Asia Pac, the US will never allow that much harm to its only warships refuelling station in ASEAN.

 

[Umigami]

 

[satria]

sebagai rakyat mah ga terlalu efek, sekolah dan ekonomi ga terganggu ... hanya sekitaran cilandak yang mungkin adak efeknya... dan yang keinget hanya pangkoarmada dicopot besoknya, tapi anaknnya tetep sekolah biasa, hanya pindah rumah dinas tapi pindah deket rumah dinas gubernur ...

 

[satria]

kalo ini diserang drone?

 

[NEKO]

The US (or even China) will not allow both to continue the kinetic war in perpetuity...that means war will likely be sharp and short, the kind of war that plays in the advantage of Singapore. The same style of war that historically smaller (but more sophisticated) nations bet against a larger nation (case : Sino-Jap war 1898, Russo-Jap war 1905). In Qing China case, once the Beiyang fleet is out of commission, even though China is technically larger and has a larger manpower reserve, it didn't stop them from capitulation and in the end forced to sign a humiliating treaty.

Its different from sino-jap and russo-jap war, why? Because Singapore is just a city-state, a Kabupaten sized country. Its still possible for Japan to fight against Russia and China, but for Singapore to fight against Indonesia and winning (by forcing Indonesia to enter negotiation table) Singapore will need lots of plot armor to do that.

Even if Singapore manages to cause massive damages to our military and we only able to exert a tiny amount of our real power can they still withstand that damage?

And if Singapore manages to unleash its full military power will it be enough to bend our knee? Suppose that Jakarta is decimated and completely destroyed and so what? it's not like we don't have any other places to retreat, as for Singapore? Live or death they only have their little red dot.

 

[Madokafc]

100 fighter with thousand tonnes of bombs and missile would not dent Jakarta at all, Singapore is not an official Ally of the US, though they are part of FPDA. If the Singaporean dare to sent first attack, they would be condemned internasionally, their people would be barred from the trade lest hampering their military capability and industry greatly while the bulks of need of their state is coming from import down to everything from water to foods. Neighbor countries like Malaysia would be wary against them even outright hostile and choose to isolated them and close every possible trade they are doing, from water to electricity.

Militarily, looking at war happened in Ukraine against Russia, the Russian with all of the thousand Cruise missile and air attacks along with very large scale creeping artillery barrage is still failed to humbled all of the Ukraine facilities and core industry including electricity, and munition industry, though Russian has spent million tonnes worth of exolosive so far, in which far far larger compared to whatever Singapore has to offer. Imagine them to use what they have against country as large as Indonesia in which had more depth and hundred or thousand more target compared to whatever Ukraine has, i don't see Singapore has prospect to humble Indonesia and able to corner Indonesia into the table to cut the flesh, beside irritating more of Nationalist, Chauvinist and rasict Among Indonesia population.

 

[Gary]

Its different from sino-jap and russo-jap war, why? Because Singapore is just a city-state, a Kabupaten sized country.

This city size country could swell to a 1-2 million strong army if need be. They have an active conscription (NS men).

Its still possible for Japan to fight against Russia and China, but for Singapore to fight against Indonesia and winning (by forcing Indonesia to enter negotiation table) Singapore will need lots of plot armor to do that.

I don't think so, Batam is quite vulnerable...there used to be a map shared on the internet on how in times of war, Singapore will expand their perimeter to include Batam and Johor (if Malaysia is somewhat involved). Batam is quite realistic to be taken, as its proximity is so close and we only have like a battallion size garrison there.

RSAF and RSN could make a huge quarantine zone in the areas above and surrounding SG and Batam, isolating the local garrison from receiving any help from outside, this is a realistic scenario.

With only 20km separating Batam and SG, whatever force we station there will be vulnerable to their artillery and air strike, and once wiped out, the Singaporean army could ferry 2-3 battallions worth of troops with the landing ships and even more troops ferried by air using their heavy lift helicopters. Once Batam is secured, that means more terrain to position their SAM, or even additional airfield like Hang Nadim to launch up their jets.

And in this scenario there's really only the negotiations table left to us if we want that chunk of land to be returned.

Even if Singapore manages to cause massive damages to our military and we only able to exert a tiny amount of our real power can they still withstand that damage?

I don't get it, if the navy and air force is decimated there's really no means from our side to harm them. Unless we plan for a million man swim.

And if Singapore manages to unleash its full military power will it be enough to bend our knee? Suppose that Jakarta is decimated and completely destroyed and so what? it's not like we don't have any other places to retreat, as for Singapore? Live or death they only have their little red dot.

Explain "bend our knee" ?...The Indonesian state will still exist, children will still go to school, mothers will still spend their money in the market, life in many parts of Indonesia will still go as usual, but the cost to our military and political standing both in terms of money and prestige is down by a lot. War will likely be limited surrounding SG, Batam, Tj Pinang and Riau.

As I said before , winning wars doesn't always = opposing side total capitulation.

In Greco-Turkish war of 1912, the immidiate effect of Ottoman losing to the Greeks in the battle Elli, doesn't meant the destruction of Istanbul and the fall of the Ottomans.

 

[JATOSINT]

Kenapa tiba-tiba pada rame ngomongin skenario perang ID SG?

 

[Umigami]

Antara ID vs SG, saya rasa yg jadi aggressor yg akan kalah.

 

[NEKO]

This city size country could swell to a 1-2 million strong army if need be. They have an active conscription (NS men).

So do we, how many do you want? 10-20 millions?

I don't think so, Batam is quite vulnerable...there used to be a map shared on the internet on how in times of war, Singapore will expand their perimeter to include Batam and Johor (if Malaysia is somewhat involved). Batam is quite realistic to be taken, as its proximity is so close and we only have like a battallion size garrison there.

RSAF and RSN could make a huge quarantine zone in the areas above and surrounding SG and Batam, isolating the local garrison from receiving any help from outside, this is a realistic scenario.
With only 20km separating Batam and SG, whatever force we station there will be vulnerable to their artillery and air strike, and once wiped out, the Singaporean army could ferry 2-3 battallions worth of troops with the landing ships and even more troops ferried by air using their heavy lift helicopters. Once Batam is secured, that means more terrain to position their SAM, or even additional airfield like Hang Nadim to launch up their jets.

And in this scenario there's really only the negotiations table left to us if we want that chunk of land to be returned.

So there is no escalation of conflict no build up leading to the war and Singapore just straight up launch a surprise attack / invasion and Indonesia is caught of guard thus don't have time to reinforce Batam and the surrounding islands with more personnel and materiel?

Explain "bend our knee" ?...

This.

it didn't stop them from capitulation and in the end forced to sign a humiliating treaty.

Kenapa tiba-tiba pada rame ngomongin skenario perang ID SG?

Cuman obrolan warkop doang, lagian ngapain juga harus ribut dengan singapura, fokus ngurus Indonesia aja ntar ekonomi dan militer juga kuat sendiri dan untuk Singapura mereka hampir mencapai batas potensi mereka, gak perlu ambil pusing dengan mereka, cukup dijadiin investor aja.

 

[NEKO]

With only 20km separating Batam and SG, whatever force we station there will be vulnerable to their artillery

That means Singapore is also vulnerable to our artillery attack, and if we use Caesar SPH with special munitions we can threaten the whole Singapore.

 

[Gary]

So do we, how many do you want? 10-20 millions?

1. Are they trained ? NS men are trained men from artillerymen, infantrymen, tank crews etc
2. How do we ship them safely ? do we even have enough ship to translate this 10-20million pool into Singapore's shore

In 1898, once Beiyang fleet is out and China cede control over the sea to Japan. China's 500 million men potential are laid to waste. In today's combat, no air superiority= no sea control = no landings whatsoever. Singapore is very safe then

That means Singapore is also vulnerable to our artillery attack, and if we use Caesar SPH with special munitions we can threaten the whole Singapore.

Caesar firing from Batam meant that we must ship the battery first from Java by sea...and then attempt to unload in Batam's port, where local Singapore air and naval patrol are waiting.

Then there's the issue of ammunitions, fuel and whatever to keep the batteries firing. Its a huge logistical challenge just to get there and an even larger labor to keep em working and firing, all the while the sea and air around the theater are dominated by Sing..

 

[NEKO]

 

[Parry Brima]

I don't get it, if the navy and air force is decimated there's really no means from our side to harm them. Unless we plan for a million man swim.

Totally agree

After they decimate our military, our country will probably fall one by one. Starting with the separation of Papua, losing Natuna, followed by declaration of independence from some of the provinces. Breaking Indonesia into several countries is the ideal situation for SG, AUS, and basically everyone around us.

 

[Lordimperator]

Breaking Indonesia into several countries is the ideal situation for SG, AUS, and basically everyone around us.

Are you sure?

 

[kantokuukai]

Antara ID vs SG, saya rasa yg jadi aggressor yg akan kalah.

SG sebagian dari hub di jalur perdagangan Internasional melalui selat malaka, dimana keamanan adalah kunci dari sumber kehidupan mereka. Kalau mereka terlibat perang, apa lagi jadi agresor, maka sudah pasti mengakibatkan kerugian yang banyak bagi mereka. Hanya orang bodoh yang akan mematikan mata pencahariannya sendiri.

 

[kantokuukai]

100 fighter with thousand tonnes of bombs and missile would not dent Jakarta at all, Singapore is not an official Ally of the US, though they are part of FPDA. If the Singaporean dare to sent first attack, they would be condemned internasionally, their people would be barred from the trade lest hampering their military capability and industry greatly while the bulks of need of their state is coming from import down to everything from water to foods. Neighbor countries like Malaysia would be wary against them even outright hostile and choose to isolated them and close every possible trade they are doing, from water to electricity.

Militarily, looking at war happened in Ukraine against Russia, the Russian with all of the thousand Cruise missile and air attacks along with very large scale creeping artillery barrage is still failed to humbled all of the Ukraine facilities and core industry including electricity, and munition industry, though Russian has spent million tonnes worth of exolosive so far, in which far far larger compared to whatever Singapore has to offer. Imagine them to use what they have against country as large as Indonesia in which had more depth and hundred or thousand more target compared to whatever Ukraine has, i don't see Singapore has prospect to humble Indonesia and able to corner Indonesia into the table to cut the flesh, beside irritating more of Nationalist, Chauvinist and rasict Among Indonesia population.

Kalau dari alutsista memang SG unggul, tapi melihat perang di Ukraina sepertinya untuk bertahan kita perlu banyak drone murah yang mematikan, manpad, ATGM, untuk setidaknya counter atau paling tidak menghabiskan amunisi musuh untuk menghadapi drone murah tadi.

 

[Madokafc]

This city size country could swell to a 1-2 million strong army if need be. They have an active conscription (NS men).


I don't think so, Batam is quite vulnerable...there used to be a map shared on the internet on how in times of war, Singapore will expand their perimeter to include Batam and Johor (if Malaysia is somewhat involved). Batam is quite realistic to be taken, as its proximity is so close and we only have like a battallion size garrison there.

RSAF and RSN could make a huge quarantine zone in the areas above and surrounding SG and Batam, isolating the local garrison from receiving any help from outside, this is a realistic scenario.

With only 20km separating Batam and SG, whatever force we station there will be vulnerable to their artillery and air strike, and once wiped out, the Singaporean army could ferry 2-3 battallions worth of troops with the landing ships and even more troops ferried by air using their heavy lift helicopters. Once Batam is secured, that means more terrain to position their SAM, or even additional airfield like Hang Nadim to launch up their jets.

And in this scenario there's really only the negotiations table left to us if we want that chunk of land to be returned.


I don't get it, if the navy and air force is decimated there's really no means from our side to harm them. Unless we plan for a million man swim.



Explain "bend our knee" ?...The Indonesian state will still exist, children will still go to school, mothers will still spend their money in the market, life in many parts of Indonesia will still go as usual, but the cost to our military and political standing both in terms of money and prestige is down by a lot. War will likely be limited surrounding SG, Batam, Tj Pinang and Riau.

As I said before , winning wars doesn't always = opposing side total capitulation.

In Greco-Turkish war of 1912, the immidiate effect of Ottoman losing to the Greeks in the battle Elli, doesn't meant the destruction of Istanbul and the fall of the Ottomans.

You are taking Sinkies so highly, and underestimate your own severely. That's not healthy at all. Sinkies with all of their modern stuff is not much beyond our capabilities just like Indonesia and China or USA comparison. They by any means can't and never have sufficient resources to waging full blown war against Indonesia even six day war scenario is beyond their scope and ability. Do they have the guts to take the risk of angering Indonesia and taking the first shot just like what you have assumed?

That's the very reason they keep in the line to put cordial relationship with Indonesia.

 

[Madokafc]

Totally agree

After they decimate our military, our country will probably fall one by one. Starting with the separation of Papua, losing Natuna, followed by declaration of independence from some of the provinces. Breaking Indonesia into several countries is the ideal situation for SG, AUS, and basically everyone around us.

Nein, our country is very much more resilient compared to whatever you have assumed, the Dutch literally blockade Indonesia to the death during Independence war, trying to build as many as puppet state as they can, but here we are, prevailled against all odds as unitary state.