Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Gary]

Just a casual reminder that Britain , unlike Russia is not labelled a terrorist state by our resident internet hero. And their leaders are not on the ICC arrest warrant + their countrymen speak on the internet as if they're some sort a country on a humanitarian mission.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1675574898000003072

On other news, Russian air power unlike its army cousins are able to continuously grow as their production isn't very far away from their loss rate.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1675819913196503041

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1675820577922387968

My bad the VKS doesn't grow, but maintain more or less the same strength overall.

 

[GoatsMilk]

When i look at this 3 day war, the longer it has gone on the worse it has got for Russia.

When they attempted the invasion they had all their best gear and best soldiers. Ukraine had manpads, anti tank and some TB2. Russians were marching on Kiev and took things like snake island.

A year on, Russia is on the fringes of Ukraine holding onto dear life forced into a defensive posture with all their best equipment spent. Meanwhile Ukraine now has modern tanks, mordern APC's rocket guided artillery systems, all sorts of air defence systems.

While Ukraines military continued to get upgraded and will continue to do so going forward with F16's on the horizen and longer range rocket artillary, the Russians were reduced to buying iranian.

Make no doubts the longer this war goes on the worse it will get for Russia.

However Russians will do everything in their power to try and quell the wests desire to support Ukraine, thats the last card they got to play. And i dont see it working at all. The opportunity Russia handed to the Americans to absolutely bend them over by invading Ukraine will not be wasted. The only problem Ukraine has is that they want this war to end quick, while the americans see great profit in the war being dragged out.

 

[Umigami]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676566943921319941

 

[Dmitry]

Footage of russian dungeons in the liberated territories of the Zaporizhzhia region

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676566575304830977

 

[Ryder]

When i look at this 3 day war, the longer it has gone on the worse it has got for Russia.

When they attempted the invasion they had all their best gear and best soldiers. Ukraine had manpads, anti tank and some TB2. Russians were marching on Kiev and took things like snake island.

A year on, Russia is on the fringes of Ukraine holding onto dear life forced into a defensive posture with all their best equipment spent. Meanwhile Ukraine now has modern tanks, mordern APC's rocket guided artillery systems, all sorts of air defence systems.

While Ukraines military continued to get upgraded and will continue to do so going forward with F16's on the horizen and longer range rocket artillary, the Russians were reduced to buying iranian.

Make no doubts the longer this war goes on the worse it will get for Russia.

However Russians will do everything in their power to try and quell the wests desire to support Ukraine, thats the last card they got to play. And i dont see it working at all. The opportunity Russia handed to the Americans to absolutely bend them over by invading Ukraine will not be wasted. The only problem Ukraine has is that they want this war to end quick, while the americans see great profit in the war being dragged out.

You know love or hate Zelensky the man did not flee and stood still.

If Zelensky fled the war would have been over.

Nothing destroys morale when your nation's leader flees.

Ukrainians curb stomping the Russian VDV in Hostomel will have to go as one of the all time great victories for an underdog. Remember the VDV was touted as Russia's elite who can take on any mission.

 

[Test7]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676501172385988608

 

[UkroTurk]

Pro-russian telegram channels have started spreading information: Kyiv will hit Zaporozhye NPP from Tochka-U!!!

Unfortunately Zaporozhye NPP seems to be targeted. Sooner we could hear bad news.

 

[Relic]

Incredibly naïve or intentional propaganda. our lives wont change in the short term, but when the debt bomb arrives, its going to be bad. the stupidity of the western voting base has allowed the government to run rampant not only with our money, but the money of future generations. Most people's standard of living will decrease significantly. And the people it will hit the most will not be happy. If you think whats going on in France right now is bad, be sure to have your TV on (if they are allowed to televise it) when the dollar Armageddon hits the US. People who have been used to the government taking care of them will not be satisfied with what the government will be offering. The political will you speak of is the will of these politicians to line their own pockets and burn a hole in ours. This war is the result of greedy politicians wanting even more money, even if it risked the lives of millions of innocent people.

BS. This war is about two things. Period.

1. Putin's desire to expand westward and cut Ukraine's access off to the sea. Historically, Russia has continually expanded westward until somebody stands up and beats them back for another generation. He miscalculated that this invasion would be easy and he was lied to by his military commanders about the state of the Russian military. He's now bogged down in a conflict that he's forced to see through, with a shrinking economy and poor support from the world.

2. The West saw that Putin misstepped and as soon as they realized that Ukraine was game for a fight and willing to sacrifice, the collective decision was made to eliminate Russia's land threat to Europe for a generation, so attention can fully be turned to China and their desires in the Pacific. Neutering Russia includes the addition of Sweden and Finland to NATO and the eventual addition of Ukraine to NATO / EU.

This is a war strategies. Russia is fighting a losing one. The West is simply getting rid of all of the old equipment that was meant to fight this war, by allowing Ukraine its use for what it was intended. Much of it will never truly be replaced because the next big war will look nothing like the current one. Meanwhile, this is the cheapest price we'll ever pay to render the Russian army ineffective for years to come.

 

[Afif]

Just a casual reminder that Britain , unlike Russia is not labelled a terrorist state by our resident internet hero. And their leaders are not on the ICC arrest warrant + their countrymen speak on the internet as if they're some sort a country on a humanitarian mission.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1675574898000003072

Russians are called Orcs now.
Just imagine if they adopted the policy of terminating all 'fighting-age males' In Ukraine, 'Civilised World' would have lots their mind.

 

[Ecderha]

BIG Kaboooom
putins army depot got wrecked

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676503590268026883

 

[Ecderha]

anther one
putin soldier suicidal

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676530455657455616

 

[Ecderha]

Captured russian position in Bakhmut by Ukraine army
Lot of putins soldiers rotting, body parts everywhere.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676608733068115975

 

[Ecderha]

Tea or Window?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676483468073598976

Tea

 

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676517026330812416

 

[chibiyabi]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1676517026330812416

strategic higher ground...

 

[contricusc]

My bad the VKS doesn't grow, but maintain more or less the same strength overall.

That tweet presumed 4 jets have been delivered this year to the VKS. They lost much more than that this year (they lost two jets in a single day in May). Now add the high number of helicopters lost (they even lost some in the Wagner mutiny), and the crew that died in those crashes.

The VKS is losing capability at a pretty high rate. Not as fast as the army, but they are surely in decline.

 

[Relic]

strategic higher ground...

The flanks of Bakhmut are slowly falling under Ukrainian control. It's going to be absolute hell for the Russians inside the city itself (as it was for the Ukrainians previously). Especially when Ukraine starts using cluster munitions, JDAMS and M31 GMLRS shells on the city. It took Russia 8 months and tens of thousands of lives to take the city and they're likely going to surrender it back to Ukraine in half that time, inflicting a fraction of the casualties on the Ukrainians. Russia has also lost dozens of pieces of their best artillery in the region over the last 4-6 weeks. It's been an absolute turkey shoot, using counter battery RADAR and HIMARS in combination.

I never feel bad for the Russian soldiers, but I ALMOST do in this case. Bakhmut is going to be hell for them to hold. Especially with so much of the city already destroyed during their offensive. Many of the conventional forces that were sent there to rotate Wagner out, will never leave the city alive. Berkhivka will fall to the north and Klishchiivka will fall to the south as Ukraine continues on to Opytne. The Russians will be sitting ducks and their command is unlikely to allow them to retreat due to the optics of losing Bakhmut so quickly after paying a devestating toll to take it. They'll be forced to bleed out as they become starved of ammunition and resources.

 

[Relic]

During a July 4 hearing in Parliament, British Defense Chief Admiral Tony Radakin said that Russia had lost nearly half its combat capability in Ukraine.

"Russia has lost nearly half the combat effectiveness of its army," Radakin said. "Last year it fired 10 million artillery shells but at best can produce 1 million shells a year. It has lost 2,500 tanks and at best can produce 200 tanks a year."

Radakin described the invasion of Ukraine as "a catastrophic failure for Russia" and praised the Ukrainian military's gains in the ongoing counteroffensive.

"Even in the last few weeks, Ukraine has taken back more ground than Russia has taken in the last year," Radakin said.

UK armed forces chief: Russia has lost half its combat capability in Ukraine

During a July 4 hearing in Parliament, British Defense Chief Admiral Tony Radakin said that Russia had lost nearly half its combat capability in Ukraine.

kyivindependent.com

This is what I've been trying to tell all the "doom and gloom" folks and Russian shills. They're burning through equipment at an alarming rate and don't have close to the manufacturing means neccessary to replace what they're losing. They fired 10 years worth of artillery shells production in 2022. They lost 14.5 years worth of tank production... All while LOSING substantial territory since the initial invasion, as well as more than 200,000 casualties (KIA, WIA, MIA).

The West is just clearing out wearhouses of largely old, obsolete and about to expire stuff. Meanwhile, the Russian army is falling apart, without the manufacturing means to keep up.

 

[bakhmut_bob]

BS. This war is about two things. Period.

1. Putin's desire to expand westward and cut Ukraine's access off to the sea. Historically, Russia has continually expanded westward until somebody stands up and beats them back for another generation. He miscalculated that this invasion would be easy and he was lied to by his military commanders about the state of the Russian military. He's now bogged down in a conflict that he's forced to see through, with a shrinking economy and poor support from the world.

2. The West saw that Putin misstepped and as soon as they realized that Ukraine was game for a fight and willing to sacrifice, the collective decision was made to eliminate Russia's land threat to Europe for a generation, so attention can fully be turned to China and their desires in the Pacific. Neutering Russia includes the addition of Sweden and Finland to NATO and the eventual addition of Ukraine to NATO / EU.

This is a war strategies. Russia is fighting a losing one. The West is simply getting rid of all of the old equipment that was meant to fight this war, by allowing Ukraine its use for what it was intended. Much of it will never truly be replaced because the next big war will look nothing like the current one. Meanwhile, this is the cheapest price we'll ever pay to render the Russian army ineffective for years to come.

so you went from saying "the government can spend as much money as they please and we wont even notice", to "well this is the cheapest war to render the Russian army ineffective for years". how many years? and when will the next war be? do you have answers to these questions?

you're speculating on how this has played out. The military strategy of the west doesn't have that great of a success rate over the last 80 years.

 

[Gary]

That tweet presumed 4 jets have been delivered this year to the VKS. They lost much more than that this year (they lost two jets in a single day in May). Now add the high number of helicopters lost (they even lost some in the Wagner mutiny), and the crew that died in those crashes.

The VKS is losing capability at a pretty high rate. Not as fast as the army, but they are surely in decline.

Jets delivered this year

x2 Su-30SM2 (another 2 not yet finished in the photo)
x2 Su-35S
x2 Su-34M

Last year:

x6 Su-57
x3 Su-35
x2 batch of' Su-34 (presumably 4 or less per batch)

That's 17-23 high end combat jets delivered to the VKS to make up for losses.

Oryx blog list of high end combat jet losses (excluding Su-25, Su24) is around 36 jets