The U.S. and Ukraine knew of the shortfalls, but Kyiv still launched its offensive.
www.wsj.com
Ukraine's counteroffensive could reach dead end - WSJ
These are the problems of the counteroffensive
When Ukraine launched a counter-offensive this spring, the Western military knew that Kiev did not have enough training and weapons - from shells to warplanes - to push out Russian troops, the newspaper claims. However, they hoped that Ukrainian courage and ingenuity would prevail.
But that didn’t happen. Deep and deadly minefields, sprawling fortifications, and Russian air power have largely blocked a significant Ukrainian advance. At the same time, the campaign risks a stalemate that could lead to loss of life and equipment without a significant change in momentum.
As the likelihood of any large-scale Ukrainian breakthrough fades this year, Washington and its allies face the worrisome prospect of a longer war that will require huge new infusions of modern weapons and more training to give Kiev a chance to win.
The publication recalls that US President Joe Biden will take part in the elections in the fall of 2024. Many in Washington say the White House's concern about the impact of the war on the campaign is prompting greater caution about the amount of support that can be offered to Kyiv.
At the same time, it is noted that American indecision contrasts with changing attitudes in Europe, where in recent months more and more leaders are inclined to believe that Ukraine must win the conflict and Russia lose in order to ensure the security of the continent.
But the European military does not have sufficient resources to provide Ukraine with everything it needs to push the occupying forces out of the roughly 20% of the country they control. European leaders are unlikely to significantly increase support for Kyiv if they sense US reluctance, Western diplomats say.
At the same time, according to Ukrainian and Western intelligence, the Russian military has low morale due to attrition, poor supplies and infighting among Russian leaders.
Russia appears unable to seize the initiative and attack Ukrainian positions, but its forces remain strong enough to hold hundreds of kilometers of fortifications and a large number of aircraft that keep Kiev troops at bay.
The publication also recalls that not a single Western army has tried to break through the established enemy defenses without control of the sky. The lack of air defense and anti-aircraft weapons in Ukraine allowed Russia to dominate the skies on most of the front.
If Ukraine receives the F-16 fighter jets, their impact on combat operations will depend on many factors, including the number of aircraft delivered, the sophistication of their avionics and the weapons systems they will be equipped with. Incorporating modern fighter jets into combat plans is also an extremely difficult task, requiring a different level of synchronization of Ukrainian operations, the newspaper writes.
Recall that President Volodymyr Zelensky notes that Ukraine can defeat Russian terror only with a full-fledged air shield.