Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Gary]

Mariupol rebuilding continues

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1754112362678735324

 

[Scott Summers]

This is the biggest cope I've ever heard and it shouldn't even be engaged with, but I'll indulge his lunacy.

Russia's goals at the outset of war were the following.

1. The fall of Kyiv and the sacking of the Ukrainian government, making Ukraine a vasal state of Russia, similar to Belarus.

Result: failed miserably. Kyiv is not in any form of jeopardy, and the population is firmly against the idea of falling under Russian influence. EU and Allied funding is ensuring that Ukraine's Government has plentiful funding for the foreseeable future.

2. Complete control of the Donbas.

Result: they're going to have to settle for partial control. The Ukrainian fortresses of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are not even close to falling.

3. Fracturing NATO and isolating countries in Europe.

Result: Epic failure, with NATO standing firmly together and actually expanding their strength with the addition of two wealthy, militarily capable nations in Finland and Sweden that are geographically significant on Russia's border.

Here are the actual facts...

1. Russia occupies 18% of Ukrainian held territory at the beginning of the war.

2. Russia has suffered a 90+% casualty rate to the land army they invaded with.

3. Russia's vast Soviet stockpile is being burned through at an alarming pace and the land army they counted on sweeping over Ukraine has been plagued by issues ranging from professional capability, logistics, capability gaps, low morale and insubordination.

4. 20% of the "vaunted" Black Sea Fleet has fled to distant ports where it is stuck hiding from a country that doesn't even possess a convential Navy.

5. Not only has Europe been able keep Russia at bay by sending old, outdated equipment, they're also now starting to take the overhaul of their own military might seriously, at the same time that Russia's land army is being shredded for a generation. Germany , for example, committed to spending more than 100 Billion Euros to greatly revamp their land forces, buying modern, capable equipment. Poland is developing aruguably the steongest land army in Europe. Slovakia , Czech Reuplic , Romania , Lithuania , Britain, Sweden Finland France Norway , etc, etc are doing the same. At the end of this conflict Europe will be much more militarily powerful and Russia will have lost an enormous amount of the Soviet stockpile that it resorted to in order to project power.

Russia is getting clowned by a country a fraction it's size, using equipment that is largely old Soviet crap and a small percentage of Western hand-me-downs.

You could never new Russia's goals, especially as a North-American or West-European. You dont believe any word what Russia says, but you believe them if they declare their goals? Russians speak always with a double tongue.

Russia's main argument was that NATO promised not to expand to the East next to Russian borders, and in turn Russia would leave Ukraine alone.

Those conversations really took place between the American and Russian diplomats.

18% of Ukraine is still a very massive chunk of land, then you have Crimea also and the Russians are totally in control of the Sea of Azov and the Ukrainian Black Sea ports.

Russia has a unlimited resources of manpower and material and dont care about losses. The Second World War showed that. The Germans destroyed more Russian weaponry and killed more Russian troops than Ukraine could ever dream about but they still lost heavily.

They just burn all their cities to ashes instead of losing to Westerners like they did against Napoleon Bonaparte. The only ones who really hurt and defeat them were Easterners like Turks, Japanese and Afghans.

The West gambled with Ukrainian lives and lost. Get over it. Time for a peace deal with Donald J. Trump.

 

[Gary]

During WW2 the Germans laments that for every 12 Russian division they destroyed, another 12 comes up

 

[Relic]

You could never new Russia's goals, especially as a North-American or West-European. You dont believe any word what Russia says, but you believe them if they declare their goals? Russians speak always with a double tongue.

Russia's main argument was that NATO promised not to expand to the East next to Russian borders, and in turn Russia would leave Ukraine alone.

Those conversations really took place between the American and Russian diplomats.

18% of Ukraine is still a very massive chunk of land, then you have Crimea also and the Russians are totally in control of the Sea of Azov and the Ukrainian Black Sea ports.

Russia has a unlimited resources of manpower and material and dont care about losses. The Second World War showed that. The Germans destroyed more Russian weaponry and killed more Russian troops than Ukraine could ever dream about but they still lost heavily.

They just burn all their cities to ashes instead of losing to Westerners like they did against Napoleon Bonaparte. The only ones who really hurt and defeat them were Easterners like Turks, Japanese and Afghans.

The West gambled with Ukrainian lives and lost. Get over it. Time for a peace deal with Donald J. Trump.

You think Russia has unlimited resources!?!? That couldn't be further from the truth. They are actually burning through MBTs, IFVs, artillery / shells, and missiles at a rate that they can't fathom replacing. Satellite imagery confirms that they are absolutely emptying their storage sites worth of heavy weapons. They are about 18 months away, at this rate of loss, from reaching critical levels, especially when it comes to armored vehicles. Their modern armor (BMP-3, T-90, T-72B3) are being destroyed in droves. Increasingly, they're having to use deeply incapable T-62 and T-55 tanks that are 60+ years old, to backfill their inventories.

When USA passes this next $61 Billion package, which includes $45 Billion usd worth of drawdown authority and USAI, that will be the effective death knell to the Russian land forces. That package will include enough capability to devastate Russian armor at a rate that's even greater than the unsustainable rate they're losing it at now.

This war has been an abject failure for Russia. By time it concludes the West might trade 20% of the land mass of Ukraine for the destruction of 90% of the Soviet stockpile, leaving Russia completely unable to project meaningful power into Europe for the better part of the next generation. Furthermore, the additions of Sweden and Finland to NATO force Russia to have an even longer border with NATO and now ensures that there is absolutely zero opportunity for Russia to invade West, without their miserable people getting their teeth kicked in by Big Brother NATO.

You can cope all you want, but if you asked Putin if he would trade the destruction of the majority of the Russian land army for only a small percentage of Ukraine, the shattering of all trade ties with the West, and the substantial strenghting of NATO, he would have absolutely not invaded. He thought his army was much more powerful. He thought they were going to roll over Ukraine like USA ran over Iraq. He had a hyper-inflated view of Russia's military capability and has figured out that he's caught in a nightmare... All it takes is Western funding. $100-$150 Billion usd per year, split between 35+ countries (which is absolutely nothing for us) will send Ukraine enough superior Western equipment that Russia will eventually capitulate and negotiate. Their production capacity is absolutely dwarfed by what the West can do with time.

 

[Iskander]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1754376191367172562

Mariupol rebuilding continues

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1754112362678735324

Where do you get so much joy? After all, all these cities are being destroyed. Why do Russians need these ruins? For Mariupolization? You see, the Russians have been fighting for this Avdeevka for 2 years. And it is possible that another 20 will fight.
Dear Gary, I may disappoint you a little:
The Russian bear in Ukraine appears to have fallen into a trap. It doesn't matter how soon the hunters (NATO) come and skin him

 

[Gary]

The second bomb dropped right towards that guy's poor balls.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1753898056985051440

 

[Gary]

Where do you get so much joy? After all, all these cities are being destroyed. Why do Russians need these ruins? For Mariupolization? You see, the Russians have been fighting for this Avdeevka for 2 years. And it is possible that another 20 will fight.

Fun fact: one of my favorite games is Cities Skyline where we get to build cities. So of course I get overjoyed when new city construction projects kick off.

Now I ask you. Why do you get upset when new buildings pop out? Do you enjoy homelessness? Do you enjoy people living in the cold with no roofs and no heat?

 

[UkroTurk]

The Netherlands will provide 6 more F-16 to Ukraine

Nederland haalt F-16’s uit de verkoop

Nederland staakt de gesprekken over de mogelijke verkoop van 6 F-16-jachtvliegtuigen. De Staat voerde gesprekken met de firma Draken International. Beide partijen zijn tot de conclusie gekomen dat verkoop en levering van deze F-16’s op korte termijn niet door zal gaan. Dat melden minister Kajsa...

www.defensie.nl

 

[Iskander]

Fun fact: one of my favorite games is Cities Skyline where we get to build cities. So of course I get overjoyed when new city construction projects kick off.

View attachment 65354

Now I ask you. Why do you get upset when new buildings pop out? Do you enjoy homelessness? Do you enjoy people living in the cold with no roofs and no heat?

How so? Ukrainians are destroying their cities, and a 600,000-strong Russian army with thousands of tanks and guns has come to restore Ukraine?
If you decide to tell children's stories to adults, then at least start from the very beginning. But not from the middle

 

[Relic]

The Netherlands will provide 6 more F-16 to Ukraine

Nederland haalt F-16’s uit de verkoop

Nederland staakt de gesprekken over de mogelijke verkoop van 6 F-16-jachtvliegtuigen. De Staat voerde gesprekken met de firma Draken International. Beide partijen zijn tot de conclusie gekomen dat verkoop en levering van deze F-16’s op korte termijn niet door zal gaan. Dat melden minister Kajsa...

www.defensie.nl

Brings the total to 24 units being provided by The Netherlands . It will be nice to have them integrated into the Ukranian Air Force. The USA has about 250-300 of them that they will be taking out of service in the next couple years, and I suspect a healthy chunk of those will wind up in Ukraine as well, when more U.S. aid passes and Ukraine has enough pilots and technicians trained to fly / service all these air frames.

Ukraine should have about 100 F-16s in their inventory by the end of 2025, with roughly 200 pilots trained to fly them. Really, it's more about the weapons that become available more than anything. JDAMS for all types of bombs. Dozens of JASSM cruise missiles. HARM missiles being used to to maximum effectiveness. AMRAAMs and AIM-9X being used from aerial platforms, not only to engage Russian CAS, but also to serve as airborne air defense vs incoming missiles and drones. The addition of dozens of F-16s doesn't only add to Ukraine's strike capability, it adds dozens of potential "air defense" platforms to the arsenal as well.

With Russia's missile production already stressed to the max, it's going to be hard for them to launch them in volumes dense enough to get through Ukraine's ever expanding SAM "shield".

 

[MaciekRS]

Russia doesnt have to make progress. They already reached their targets:

1. Keep Crimea
2. Annex the Donbass
3. Keep the pressure at the West and empty their stockpiles

The Soviet Union was a massive communist production state without unemployment.

They produced almost more weaponry than than the world combined. They have the longest breath in this game. The Russian people wont protest or march to the Kremlin.

Its not the same in the West. The Ukrainian war creates a big financial crisis in the West. The EU sends billions and billions and billions that they could use for their own housing, inflation and immigration crisis.

Everyone who thinks Russia bleeds more than the EU needs to wake up.

You said Soviet Union.
Look at it now. Russia, biggest part of Soviet Union is fighting SECOND biggest part of Soviet Union, both sides are burning up that whole weaponry produced by CCCP and Warsaw pact.

And who will empty their stockpiles?
I'm from Poland, what did we "lose"
some 200 T72 M1R from the 80s are being replaced by 116 M1A1
about 60 PT 91 (with about 150 still to be sent) and 14 Leo4 are being replaced by 180 K2
about 200 2S1 Gozdzik 122mm are being replaced by 364 K9 155mm
Few Mig 29 are being replaced by FA 50.

 

[Relic]

You said Soviet Union.
Look at it now. Russia, biggest part of Soviet Union is fighting SECOND biggest part of Soviet Union, both sides are burning up that whole weaponry produced by CCCP and Warsaw pact.

And who will empty their stockpiles?
I'm from Poland, what did we "lose"
some 200 T72 M1R from the 80s are being replaced by 116 M1A1
about 60 PT 91 (with about 150 still to be sent) and 14 Leo4 are being replaced by 180 K2
about 200 2S1 Gozdzik 122mm are being replaced by 364 K9 155mm
Few Mig 29 are being replaced by FA 50.

It's just trolling at this point. There is little critical engagement on the other side of the argument. They just throw shit at the wall and hope it sticks.

You would have to actually be mentally ill to think that Poland is going to walk away militarily weaker at the conclusion of this war than they were at the outset. Poland will have the strongest land army in Europe by 2026.

Polish vehicle / aircraft donations since the invasion of Ukraine.

- 300'ish T-72 MBTs
- 60 PT-91 Twardy MBTs
- 14 Leopard 2A4 MBTs
- 250'ish BMP-1 IFVs
- 25 BM-21 GRAD MLRS
- 200'ish 2S1 Gozdzik
- 18 Krab self-propelled howitizers
- 100'ish KTO Rosomak IFVs
- 12'ish MI-24 attack helicopters
- 20'ish Mig-29 fighter jets

Polish vehicle / aircraft purchases since the invasion of Ukraine.

- 1000 K2 Black Panther MBTs
- 250 Abrams M1A2 MBTs
- 824 K9A1/PL self-propelled howitzers
- 152 Krab, self-propelled howitzers
- 288 K239 Chunmoo MLRS
- 506 HIMARS MLRS
- 1000-1400 BWP Borsuk AFVs
- 300 Cougar MRAPs
- 26 M88A2 ARVs
- 32 F-35 Lightning II fighter jets
- 48 T-50 Golden Eagle fighter jets
- 96 AH-64 Apache helicopters
- 32 AW149 Combat Support Helicopers

Note: 96 AH-64 Apache attack helicopters are approved, but the contract is still being negotiated for their purchase and delivery.

 

[Scott Summers]

You said Soviet Union.
Look at it now. Russia, biggest part of Soviet Union is fighting SECOND biggest part of Soviet Union, both sides are burning up that whole weaponry produced by CCCP and Warsaw pact.

And who will empty their stockpiles?
I'm from Poland, what did we "lose"
some 200 T72 M1R from the 80s are being replaced by 116 M1A1
about 60 PT 91 (with about 150 still to be sent) and 14 Leo4 are being replaced by 180 K2
about 200 2S1 Gozdzik 122mm are being replaced by 364 K9 155mm
Few Mig 29 are being replaced by FA 50.

And how much did that joke of replacing weaponry cost the Polish taxpayer?

Money of the hardworking Polish people gone forever in the pockets of Boeing, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Reinmetall, General Dynamics etc.

Money that could be used in healtcare, education, agriculture etc.

Did Ukraine really benefit from it? Or did the big manufacturers benefit from it?

 

[Gary]

How so? Ukrainians are destroying their cities, and a 600,000-strong Russian army with thousands of tanks and guns has come to restore Ukraine?
If you decide to tell children's stories to adults, then at least start from the very beginning. But not from the middle

The Ukrainians are bringing this upon themselves, there's no need to point fingers at anyone.

 

[Relic]

Andrew Pepetua's documented losses for Russia and Ukraine, Monday, Feb 5th.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1754719325116608734

 

[Gary]

No free house for you then

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1754643774737657940

 

[UkroTurk]

1000 dead per day


During the last day, another 1,020 enemies were destroyed, the General Headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on Facebook. The General Staff added that now the total enemy losses are approximately 390,580 occupiers.

In addition, during the day, 35 armored fighting vehicles of the invaders, 17 tanks, 18 artillery systems, one air defense weapon and 10 units of special equipment were “minus”

 

[Gary]

​

Avdiivka is about to fall

Reports of Russian advances towards the Donetsk town raise the prospect that it could be captured in the coming days.

www.newsweek.com

Avdiivka Is About to Fall​

Published Feb 06, 2024 at 3:00 AM ESTUpdated Feb 06, 2024 at 4:06 AM EST

Russian troops are making gains towards Avdiivka, posing a "critical" situation for Kyiv's forces, Ukrainian Telegram channels have warned, amid the prospect the Donetsk town could be the first settlement captured by Moscow in eight months.

Last October, Russia launched an offensive for the settlement considered to be a gateway to nearby Russian-occupied Donetsk city and pivotal in the Kremlin's objective to gain control of the entire southeastern Donbas region.

Russia has suffered huge losses of equipment and troops in what has been described by Kyiv as "meat assaults," but Ukrainian Telegram channels have been giving pessimistic assessments on the chances that Kyiv's forces could manage to hold onto the town.

PHOTO-ILLUSTRATION BY NEWSWEEK/GETTY
The Telegram channel Ukraine Fights posted on Sunday that "the situation in the city has become critical," adding that Russian attack aircraft had entered the city from the northeast and Russian troops had bypassed Ukrainian battle formations and gained a foothold in the buildings.

"This means that they are hundreds of meters away from the main logistical artery of the Ukrainian defenders," the post said, according to a translation. "The fate of Avdiivka is being decided."

Telegram channel Butusov Plus said there were street battles in the northern outskirts of Avdiivka where Russian units had entrenched themselves less than a mile from the entrance to the town. Ukraine's 110th Mechanized Brigade and attached units are fighting larger Russian troop numbers, which are constantly being reinforced.


"Avdiivka urgently needs fresh reserves and a rotation of units from the heroic 110th Brigade," the post said, noting that ammunition is also needed, adding that "the situation is critical."

Newsweek reached out to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry for comment.

Wall Street Journal correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov referred to the posts on X, formerly Twitter, writing on Sunday that Avdiivka "increasingly looks likely to become the first Ukrainian city to fall since the capture of Bakhmut last May."

He added that the acute ammunition shortage has been caused by the U.S. Congress withholding further military aid to Ukraine.

Leon Hartwell, senior associate at the London School of Economics think tank LSE IDEAS, said that the Russian capture of Avdiivka could strengthen the position of Western skeptics advocating for a reduction in military and financial support for Ukraine.

It would also enable Russian forces to consolidate positions around Bakhmut, facilitate their control of the highway between Donetsk and Kramatorsk, and overall enhance Moscow's logistical capabilities in Donetsk.

A bombed residential area is seen amid artillery shelling on December 31, 2023, in Avdiivka, Ukraine. There are reports that the town is about to fall to Russian forces.PIERRE CROM/GETTY IMAGES

"The loss of Avdiivka would limit Ukraine's ability to launch counteroffensive operations against Russia in Donbas, and reclaiming the city, given its formidable fortifications, would pose an exceptionally challenging task," Hartwell told Newsweek.

"Russia has invested heavily in the capture of Avdiivka, deploying scores of soldiers and military equipment to the city," he said. "The seizure of Avdiivka holds significant political importance for Putin, driven by the urgent need to showcase victories for Russia ahead of the presidential election and a potential new wave of mass mobilization of soldiers."

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Sunday that Russian forces had advanced east of Avdiivka with geolocated footage from the previous day showing advances along the H-20 highway east of the town.


Russian troops are making gains towards Avdiivka, posing a "critical" situation for Kyiv's forces, Ukrainian Telegram channels have warned, amid the prospect the Donetsk town could be the first settlement captured by Moscow in eight months.
Last October, Russia launched an offensive for the settlement considered to be a gateway to nearby Russian-occupied Donetsk city and pivotal in the Kremlin's objective to gain control of the entire southeastern Donbas region.

Russia has suffered huge losses of equipment and troops in what has been described by Kyiv as "meat assaults," but Ukrainian Telegram channels have been giving pessimistic assessments on the chances that Kyiv's forces could manage to hold onto the town.

PHOTO-ILLUSTRATION BY NEWSWEEK/GETTY
The Telegram channel Ukraine Fights posted on Sunday that "the situation in the city has become critical," adding that Russian attack aircraft had entered the city from the northeast and Russian troops had bypassed Ukrainian battle formations and gained a foothold in the buildings.
"This means that they are hundreds of meters away from the main logistical artery of the Ukrainian defenders," the post said, according to a translation. "The fate of Avdiivka is being decided."

"Avdiivka urgently needs fresh reserves and a rotation of units from the heroic 110th Brigade," the post said, noting that ammunition is also needed, adding that "the situation is critical."

Newsweek reached out to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry for comment.
Wall Street Journal correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov referred to the posts on X, formerly Twitter, writing on Sunday that Avdiivka "increasingly looks likely to become the first Ukrainian city to fall since the capture of Bakhmut last May."
He added that the acute ammunition shortage has been caused by the U.S. Congress withholding further military aid to Ukraine.

Leon Hartwell, senior associate at the London School of Economics think tank LSE IDEAS, said that the Russian capture of Avdiivka could strengthen the position of Western skeptics advocating for a reduction in military and financial support for Ukraine.
It would also enable Russian forces to consolidate positions around Bakhmut, facilitate their control of the highway between Donetsk and Kramatorsk, and overall enhance Moscow's logistical capabilities in Donetsk.

A bombed residential area is seen amid artillery shelling on December 31, 2023, in Avdiivka, Ukraine. There are reports that the town is about to fall to Russian forces.PIERRE CROM/GETTY IMAGES

"The loss of Avdiivka would limit Ukraine's ability to launch counteroffensive operations against Russia in Donbas, and reclaiming the city, given its formidable fortifications, would pose an exceptionally challenging task," Hartwell told Newsweek.
"Russia has invested heavily in the capture of Avdiivka, deploying scores of soldiers and military equipment to the city," he said. "The seizure of Avdiivka holds significant political importance for Putin, driven by the urgent need to showcase victories for Russia ahead of the presidential election and a potential new wave of mass mobilization of soldiers."
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Sunday that Russian forces had advanced east of Avdiivka with geolocated footage from the previous day showing advances along the H-20 highway east of the town.

Michael Kofman, senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the War on the Rocks podcast on January 30 that the situation around Avdiivka was "stable" but "trending for the worse in the sense that Russians are making incremental gains."
"There is a good chance that Avdiivka will eventually be lost," Kofman said.

 

[Gary]

Ukraine armed individuals are now encircled in the Southern half of the city by the Russian army, reinforcement and supply of ammo is impossible now

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1754829279353844057

 

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1754832147951571354