Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1807924423413936593

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1807931924440101186

 

[Gary]

2x Su-27 destroyed
4x Su-27 damaged

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1807855178386694413

 

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1807745004590313726

 

[contricusc]

Eurelectric: renewable power generates more than half of EU’s electricity in H1 2024​

Eurelectric: renewable power generates more than half of EU’s electricity in H1 2024

Eurelectric reports that, in the first half of the year, renewable energy accounted for more than half of Europe's power supply.

www.pv-tech.org

Europe has greatly reduced its reliance on Russian gas in the last two years. For electricity generation, only 25% came from coal and natural gas in the first half of 2024. The rest of 75% was nuclear, wind, hydro and solar.

Considering the trend, Europe will soon reduce its dependence on fossil fuels for electricity generation. The next step will be the reduction of ICE cars which will result in less reliance on oil imports, once the electric grid will be based on renewable sources.

The dependence of the EU on Russian and Middle Eastern imports will be greatly reduced in the next few years.

 

[Gary]

2x Su-27 destroyed
4x Su-27 damaged

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1807855178386694413

Btw Ukro pilots regularly practice taking-off and landing on a different airfield everyday, rarely if ever taking off and landing at the same airport. So this is just unlucky, Russian pilots (because it was not necessary) did not practice such, but because ATACMS is now allowed to strike deep into Russia, the VVS will be forced to adopt the same methods of flying and landing on completely different airbase.

 

[Gary]

A.K.A the crying Westerner

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1807694418537050254

 

[Gary]

The choice for poor underprivileged Ukrainian men going forward :

1. Accept Russian overlordship and live in peace
2. Fight for a nominally 'independent' Ukraine and be treated like dogs

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1808076704390189454

 

[Relic]

USA to announce two new military aid packages for Ukraine in the coming days.

The first package will come from Presidential Drawdown Authority and will consist of armaments valued at $150 million usd. The second package will be a massive (likely USAI) package valued at $2.3 billion usd and will contain some definitie goodies.

The systematic destruction of the Soviet stockpile and Russia's ability to project power continues at an alarming rate and and costs pocket change for the tax payers of the West. This Westerner could not be any happier to see the quality of life of the Russian people continue to suffer, while their sons and husbands die in droves at the front, leaving families behind that Russia has no financial capacity/ willingness to support.

US to announce $2.3 billion military aid package to Ukraine 'soon'

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that the package will include air defense missiles, anti-tank weapons "and other critical munitions from U.S. stockpiles," Voice of America reported.

kyivindependent.com

 

[blackjack]

Good old Us of A , they are going to save your asses like in September 1941.
Don't tell me that you could held the limes without Yenkee help?
Then , just like after Russo Japanese war in which Britain and USA help Japan to hammer you, you will make the agreement. This time solely against Muslims..
How possibly you can miss the bait?

I mean at this point Trump is going to win, even Hasanabi and Cenk Uygur had a mental breakdown with Biden. The war is just going super slow but time might not be on Ukraine's side depending who is going to be doing the negotiations between Zelensky and Putin. Minsk 1 and 2 agreements have failed, so the Russians wont trust the west for a 3rd version and later be like ahhh geez there go the Ukrainians shelling us again. Trump even dodged the debate question of what does he think about Putin keeping the donbass regions and not allowing Ukraine into NATO. Zelensky had a pretty troubled look on his face when Trump told him to work with the Russians. But atleast Biden or his son and some democrat politicians did some money laundering deals with Ukraine so it would make sense that Zelensky at least personally knew Biden....But there is no bribing that I am aware of for a presidential candidate that is already rich. Complaining about billions being thrown into it he might stop funding the Ukraine war.

 

[blackjack]

https://iz.ru/1719785/vladimir-matveev-bogdan-stepovoi-roman-kretcul/vybit-makhom-rossiiskie-korvety-modernizirovali-pod-rakety-tcirkon

 

[mehmed beg]

I mean at this point Trump is going to win, even Hasanabi and Cenk Uygur had a mental breakdown with Biden. The war is just going super slow but time might not be on Ukraine's side depending who is going to be doing the negotiations between Zelensky and Putin. Minsk 1 and 2 agreements have failed, so the Russians wont trust the west for a 3rd version and later be like ahhh geez there go the Ukrainians shelling us again. Trump even dodged the debate question of what does he think about Putin keeping the donbass regions and not allowing Ukraine into NATO. Zelensky had a pretty troubled look on his face when Trump told him to work with the Russians. But atleast Biden or his son and some democrat politicians did some money laundering deals with Ukraine so it would make sense that Zelensky at least personally knew Biden....But there is no bribing that I am aware of for a presidential candidate that is already rich. Complaining about billions being thrown into it he might stop funding the Ukraine war.

As I have said, here is hope for you. Don't get me wrong, I despise Biden.
Russia can't trust The West, I agree, I don't trust them either, but then again, I doubt that Russia in all it's history fulfilled their own promises. .
Anyway good luck to you, maybe just maybe you can find a donkey but the kind that has some technology etc . You have been looking for that for centuries.

 

[Relic]

The new $2.3 billion usd military aid package that USA is set to announce will contain a mix of PDA and USAI items including (but not limited to)...

- HAWK air defense missiles
- PAC 2/3 Patriot air defense missiles
- AIM-9 NASAMS air defense missiles
- AIM-120 NASAMS air defense missiles
- 155mm artillery shells
- Javelin anti-armor missiles
- AT-4 anti-armor rockets

I'll post the full list of items when it's officially announced.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-set-announce-over-23-bln-weapons-package-ukraine-pentagon-2024-07-02/

 

[Iskander]

Politiko published a very interesting article about Trump's likely policies once he takes office. It is very long, so I will give some interesting quotes.


«Trump’s Plan for NATO Is Emerging.»

Trump advisers envision a ‘radical reorientation’ in which Washington takes a back seat to Europe — and cuts a deal with Putin over Ukraine.

Donald Trump has threatened to leave NATO so many times — or has appeared to, anyway — that for many of his critics, it’s a question of when, not whether, he’d ditch the 75-year-old alliance if he’s reelected president in November.

In truth, Trump would be unlikely to quit NATO outright, according to interviews with former Trump national security officials and defense experts who are likely to serve in a second Trump term. But even if he doesn’t formally leave the organization, that doesn’t mean NATO would survive a second Trump term intact.
In return for continued U.S. participation, Trump would not only expect that European countries drastically increase their spending on NATO — his main complaint when he was president — but also undertake what one defense expert familiar with the thinking inside Trump’s national-security advisory circle, Dan Caldwell describes as a “radical reorientation” of NATO.
“We don’t really have a choice anymore,” Caldwell told POLITICO Magazine, citing rising U.S. debt, flagging military recruiting, and a defense industrial base that can’t keep up with the challenge from both Russia and China.
According to these officials, the U.S. would keep its nuclear umbrella over Europe during a second Trump term by maintaining its airpower and bases in Germany, England and Turkey, and its naval forces as well. Meanwhile, the bulk of infantry, armor, logistics and artillery would ultimately pass from American to European hands. Parts of this plan were floated in an article published in February 2023 by the Trump-affiliated Center for Renewing America, but in the months since, there’s been an emerging and more detailed consensus among Trump supporters on an outline of a new concept for NATO.
The shift they envision would involve “significantly and substantially downsizing America’s security role — stepping back instead of being the primary provider of combat power in Europe, somebody who provides support only in times of crisis,”
“We can’t be doing 10 times what the Germans are doing anymore, and we’ve got to be prepared to be tough with them. There’s got to be consequences,” Colby said in an interview. “We want NATO to be active, but we want it to be with the Europeans in the lead. That was the original idea. That was Dwight Eisenhower’s idea.” Only now, faced with a menacing China, the need for making such changes is far more urgent, Colby said. “The United States does not have enough military forces to go around. … We can’t break our spear in Europe against the Russians when we know the Chinese and Russians are collaborating, and the Chinese are a more dangerous and significant threat.”...

 

[Anastasius]

Politiko published a very interesting article about Trump's likely policies once he takes office. It is very long, so I will give some interesting quotes.


«Trump’s Plan for NATO Is Emerging.»

Trump advisers envision a ‘radical reorientation’ in which Washington takes a back seat to Europe — and cuts a deal with Putin over Ukraine.

Donald Trump has threatened to leave NATO so many times — or has appeared to, anyway — that for many of his critics, it’s a question of when, not whether, he’d ditch the 75-year-old alliance if he’s reelected president in November.

In truth, Trump would be unlikely to quit NATO outright, according to interviews with former Trump national security officials and defense experts who are likely to serve in a second Trump term. But even if he doesn’t formally leave the organization, that doesn’t mean NATO would survive a second Trump term intact.
In return for continued U.S. participation, Trump would not only expect that European countries drastically increase their spending on NATO — his main complaint when he was president — but also undertake what one defense expert familiar with the thinking inside Trump’s national-security advisory circle, Dan Caldwell describes as a “radical reorientation” of NATO.
“We don’t really have a choice anymore,” Caldwell told POLITICO Magazine, citing rising U.S. debt, flagging military recruiting, and a defense industrial base that can’t keep up with the challenge from both Russia and China.
According to these officials, the U.S. would keep its nuclear umbrella over Europe during a second Trump term by maintaining its airpower and bases in Germany, England and Turkey, and its naval forces as well. Meanwhile, the bulk of infantry, armor, logistics and artillery would ultimately pass from American to European hands. Parts of this plan were floated in an article published in February 2023 by the Trump-affiliated Center for Renewing America, but in the months since, there’s been an emerging and more detailed consensus among Trump supporters on an outline of a new concept for NATO.
The shift they envision would involve “significantly and substantially downsizing America’s security role — stepping back instead of being the primary provider of combat power in Europe, somebody who provides support only in times of crisis,”
“We can’t be doing 10 times what the Germans are doing anymore, and we’ve got to be prepared to be tough with them. There’s got to be consequences,” Colby said in an interview. “We want NATO to be active, but we want it to be with the Europeans in the lead. That was the original idea. That was Dwight Eisenhower’s idea.” Only now, faced with a menacing China, the need for making such changes is far more urgent, Colby said. “The United States does not have enough military forces to go around. … We can’t break our spear in Europe against the Russians when we know the Chinese and Russians are collaborating, and the Chinese are a more dangerous and significant threat.”...

I am always amused when mainstream media tries to subtly pivot from "Trump wants Europe to pull their weight when it comes to being in NATO" to "Trump is going to sell out Ukraine to Putin" and thinks no one will notice.

A reminder that Trump was the one that started seriously arming and training Ukrainian forces after Obama basically let Russians walk in and do whatever the hell they want without serious repercussions.

 

[Gary]

Politiko published a very interesting article about Trump's likely policies once he takes office. It is very long, so I will give some interesting quotes.


«Trump’s Plan for NATO Is Emerging.»

Trump advisers envision a ‘radical reorientation’ in which Washington takes a back seat to Europe — and cuts a deal with Putin over Ukraine.

Donald Trump has threatened to leave NATO so many times — or has appeared to, anyway — that for many of his critics, it’s a question of when, not whether, he’d ditch the 75-year-old alliance if he’s reelected president in November.

In truth, Trump would be unlikely to quit NATO outright, according to interviews with former Trump national security officials and defense experts who are likely to serve in a second Trump term. But even if he doesn’t formally leave the organization, that doesn’t mean NATO would survive a second Trump term intact.
In return for continued U.S. participation, Trump would not only expect that European countries drastically increase their spending on NATO — his main complaint when he was president — but also undertake what one defense expert familiar with the thinking inside Trump’s national-security advisory circle, Dan Caldwell describes as a “radical reorientation” of NATO.
“We don’t really have a choice anymore,” Caldwell told POLITICO Magazine, citing rising U.S. debt, flagging military recruiting, and a defense industrial base that can’t keep up with the challenge from both Russia and China.
According to these officials, the U.S. would keep its nuclear umbrella over Europe during a second Trump term by maintaining its airpower and bases in Germany, England and Turkey, and its naval forces as well. Meanwhile, the bulk of infantry, armor, logistics and artillery would ultimately pass from American to European hands. Parts of this plan were floated in an article published in February 2023 by the Trump-affiliated Center for Renewing America, but in the months since, there’s been an emerging and more detailed consensus among Trump supporters on an outline of a new concept for NATO.
The shift they envision would involve “significantly and substantially downsizing America’s security role — stepping back instead of being the primary provider of combat power in Europe, somebody who provides support only in times of crisis,”
“We can’t be doing 10 times what the Germans are doing anymore, and we’ve got to be prepared to be tough with them. There’s got to be consequences,” Colby said in an interview. “We want NATO to be active, but we want it to be with the Europeans in the lead. That was the original idea. That was Dwight Eisenhower’s idea.” Only now, faced with a menacing China, the need for making such changes is far more urgent, Colby said. “The United States does not have enough military forces to go around. … We can’t break our spear in Europe against the Russians when we know the Chinese and Russians are collaborating, and the Chinese are a more dangerous and significant threat.”...

It is inevitable that the Americans will surrender a lot of their attention away from Europe and toward the Pacific (and Middle East). What the Americans are facing in the Pacific is almost the exact reverse of the first Pacific war. Whereas in the first Pacific war, the Americans enjoyed significant industrial advantage (in particular, shipbuilding) over the Japanese, right now the Americans aren't even in the top 10 shipbuilding nation.

Here's what the American current shipbuilding industry looks like

Whereas in 1939-45 this is what the balances looked like

The Americans are on their way to war with China, ever since 2009 they realized that they need an un-interrupted focus to tackle China, this is the year the Americans are drawing down their presence in the Middle East, in particular Afghanistan and it gained even more traction in 2012 by trying to portray 'mission success' in the Middle East by citing the elimination of Osama Bin Laden a year before.

East Asian foreign policy of the Obama administration - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

But as usual, the AIPAC lobby makes it very difficult for the American administration to do so, because in 2011, that lobby somewhat successfully pushed for American intervention in Libya and Syria. What the foreign policy blob wishes in Syria in particular is the cutting of Iran's land bridge towards the Mediterranean, severing the ties between Iran and Hezbollah by replacing Assad (a Tehran ally) with maybe a Syrian Bin Zayed. To do so, they need a secular and friendly regime in Syria. The FSA is a perfect candidate for such. But what the foreign policy blob didn't anticipate back then is that eventually, the secular FSA losses appeal to Islamist groups like Al Nusra, Jaysh Al Islam, Islamic State etc.

So when ISIS stormed its way all across Iraq and proclaimed the Caliphate in 2024 (just 5 days ago is its 10th anniversary), the American foreign policy blob MUST again re-divert its attention to the Middle East. Operation Inherent Resolve, the US led multinational task force charged with defeating ISIS was launched 15 June 2014

Operation Inherent Resolve - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The American foreign policy groups is basically divided into groups that are concerned with American preoccupation with the Middle East to the detriment of American containment of China and the dominantly Jewish neoconservatives that feared an Islamist resurgence in the Middle East. Of course just like all cases where American national interest clashes with Israel's security interest, the latter will be given priority. That's why there's a lobby to begin with.

So from 2014 to 2019 the US-led coalition dropped a fuck ton of bombs on IS way. To the point where the CENTCOM must scramble to scavenge reserves from all US global commands.

The US is Raiding its Global Bomb Stockpiles to Fight ISIS

The anti-ISIS coalition has dropped more than 41,500 bombs, leading the Pentagon to borrow from stockpiles in other regions.

www.defenseone.com

So instead of using the remainder of the 2010s to actually do something with regards to China, like increasing the industrial base, expanding necessary weapons and ship production, and stockpiling smart munitions, the US actually did nothing to the former while exhausting the latter.

The Islamic State core physical caliphate was finally defeated on February 9, 2019. And the Americans for quite some time were confident that the Islamist militancy threat was diminished, at this time frame the War in Syria turned into a frozen war with Turkish backed Rebels consolidating in Idlib, and the Syrian Army consolidated most of the country up till the Euphrates, while US ally SDF make the most out of NES.

Two years later a supposed US diplomat in Beijing anonymously uploaded the 'The Longer Telegram' which the Atlantic Council uploaded here, arguing its time for the US to confront China, a task which they should have done seriously since at least 2012

The Longer Telegram: Toward a new American China strategy

China presents the most important challenge to the United States in the twenty-first century. To address this challenge, the United States urgently needs "an integrated, operational, and bipartisan national strategy."

www.atlanticcouncil.org

Mimicking George Keenan's 1946 ' The Long Telegram' that signalled the US to shift into a confrontational mode to the Soviet Union after being allies for most of WW2.

Not long after this, the US abandoned Afghanistan, because while the Taliban is bad, that's more acceptable for Washington than ISKP, which both the Taliban and Washington fought together as allies. In August 2021, Kabul fell to the Taliban and the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan ceased to exist.

The Middle East problem has from the look of it, finally turned into a more peaceful front in the US foreign policy office, US's Natsec adviser John Sullivan finally has the confidence to announce it when he said :

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, speaking at The Atlantic Festival, rattled off a long list of positive developments in the Middle East, developments that were allowing the Biden administration to focus on other regions and other problems. A truce was holding in Yemen. Iranian attacks against U.S. forces had stopped. America’s presence in Iraq was “stable.” The good news crescendoed with this statement: “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.”

And now the Americans could finally concentrate all of their efforts on helping Ukraine and tackle China with like-minded countries in the Pacific...

-
-
-

Except just 8 days after Sullivan said that the Middle East is quieter than ever, the 7th October Hamas assault on Israel happened.

And the Americans are now back into square one, getting dragged back into the Middle East that they desperately wanted to exit, because the American politics couldn't withstand the Jewish lobby, and the Jewish lobby insisted on Israel first.

So we're seeing trends in which American aid for Ukraine is getting diverted to Israel while Iron dome missiles and launchers that were initially slated for the American missile defense in Guam were also 'gifted' to Israel.

The Israelis emboldened by the uncompromising American support and with the likes of Ben Gvir and Smotrich at the helm is now pushing for a more maximalist war goals, that include not only Gaza, but Hezbollah and Lebanon. Again all of this and the expense of the war will be paid by the US. They know that and exploit it to the benefit of israel and to the detriment of American effort elsewhere. The Americna sis almost guaranteed to stay stuck in the Middle East for at least another decade.

Meanwhile, Russia is advancing in Ukraine every day, the Islamist threat never actually receded, in fact, Islamist groups appear to rebound back, with the American preoccupation in Gaza, French withdrawal in the Sahel, and the insertion of 'virgin' Wagner to spearhead CT effort. The effect is clear for everyone to see

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1807066215325507867

Meanwhile in the Sahel, JNIM and ISGS actually is now brave enough to send letter to the Niger govt to release their prisoners. The Niger govt, now without their French protectors concede.

So now the Americans are getting burdened having to do the heavy lifting at the same time in :

• The Middle East
• Asia Pacific
• Europe

At some point the Americans must sacrifice one front to stabilize the other. You might be thinking that the most pressing issue that need the most American attention from top to bottom is:

• Asia Pacific
• Europe
• The Middle East

But because American foreign policies are controlled by Israeli lobby that ensures an 'Israel first' policy, it actually looked like this:

• The Middle East
• Asia Pacific
• Europe

Yes, Europe despite cultural and genetical similarity to most Americans is at the bottom of the priority.

So it is understandable that the US will somewhat sacrifice NATO and Europe for their interest somewhere else.

 

[Iskander]

I am always amused when mainstream media tries to subtly pivot from "Trump wants Europe to pull their weight when it comes to being in NATO" to "Trump is going to sell out Ukraine to Putin" and thinks no one will notice.

A reminder that Trump was the one that started seriously arming and training Ukrainian forces after Obama basically let Russians walk in and do whatever the hell they want without serious repercussions.

When Bush Jr. was reminded of his campaign promises, he responded with something like, “There is a big difference between a presidential candidate and a statesman.”

Probably, even Trump himself does not yet know what he will do regarding the war in Ukraine
For it is known that, to put it mildly, in some cases he acted not on his own, but on the advice of his charming daughter Ivanka. Then she seemed to become her adviser. By the way, no one suspected Trump’s wife, the no less charming Melonia, in this case.
Unlike her son-in-law Jared Kushner.
One of Trump's important decisions was to move the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. If you remember, then there was a lot of talk that in fact this was not Trump’s decision, but ... Kushner’s, Ivanka’s husband.

Do you think it's true that I'm suggesting that Stormy Daniels, if she were a little smarter, would have more influence over her former client and, by extension, global issues than other distinguished ladies and gentlemen in the Congress and Senate?

Well, how can I not grumble like an old man: Oh, the times! Oh, morality!

And these people forbid us to pick our noses with our fingers

 

[Gary]

First Russian foot soldier entered Niu-York

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1806669119489753103

More neighborhood in Niu York now captured

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1808405007563190432

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of an attack by two Ukrainian naval drones, presumably MAGURA, on Russian ships in the Black Sea near the city of Novorossiysk. Perhaps the attack was aimed at the Russian patrol ship “Ladny” of Project 1135 and a large landing ship of Project 775. Judging by the video, the ships did not repel the attack of sea drones; the fire was fired from the shore or from other ships not included in the video. As a result of the battle, both sea drones were destroyed.

 

[Soldier30]

Attack on the Yuzhmash defense plant of Ukraine on July 3. Powerful explosions occurred at the Yuzhmash plant in the Dnepropetrovsk region. According to Ukrainian media, a combined attack on the largest defense enterprise in eastern Ukraine, the Yuzhmash plant, was carried out by the Russian army.
The attack used Iskander-M, Iskander-K and Kh-59 missiles, as well as kamikaze drones Geran and Orlan-10. According to Ukrainian media, the air defense shot down everything except two Iskander-K missiles.