Covert Cabal dropped their latest update on remaining Russian tanks. If you've never watched these guys, they give really good info using satellite imagery of Russian tank bases that they buy. If you're not interested in watching the video, here is the cliff notes.
Russia still has more than 4000 tanks, however, only 20% of those are in good / mediocre condition that can be fielded with minimal repairs. The other 80% range from needing substantial repair / overhaul before they could be fielded, to completely unrecoverable and only useful for spare parts (if at all). Furthermore, less than 5% of Russia's "newer" tanks are left in storage. The overwhelming majority of what's left available are old T-72s, T-62s and T-55s, which means a less effective tank force and higher expected casualties to complete the same objectives.
Russia has between 1.5-2 years at it's current rate of loss vs production / refurbishment before they'll start experiencing substantial shortages for their mechanized units and the replacement tanks that they will receive will continue to be older and less capable as they run out of modern T-72s and T-90s. It's extremely difficult to create new offensives against a dug in peer when you start experiencing significant shortages.
This is why it's so imporant for the West to continue to pour support into Ukraine through AT LEAST the end of 2025 and likely through the end of 2026. The $50 Billion loan backed by profits from frozen Russian assets is critical. The $40 Billion in support from NATO is critical. The $15 Billion each year until 2027 from the EU is critical. Germany increasing their funding $15 Billion (as they have proposed) is critical and another substantial package the likes of the current $61 Billion one the USA passed in 2024 will be critical.
On top of the continued supply of air defense systems, F-16s, artillery shells, mortar rounds, cruise / ballistic missiles, ATGMs etc, it's equally important that Ukraine continue to receive an influx of Western armor and artillery to replaces losses. Looking at the current rate if losses I estimate that Ukraine will likely need the following ADDITIONAL armor / artillery to be delivered between now and the summer of 2026.
- 100 Leopard 1A5 MBTs
- 50 Leopard 2A4/5/6 MBts
- 150 T-64 MBTs (refurbished)
- 100 T-72 MBTs
- 200 Bradley IFVs
- 200 BMP-1/2 IFVs
- 100 Marder IFVs
- 100 CV90 IFVs
- 100 Rosomak IFVs
- 100 Styker IFVs
- 300 M113 APCs
- 100 YPR-765 APCs
- 100 VAB APCs
- 54 RCH-155 155mm
- 54 CAESAR 155mm
- 54 M109 155mm
- 54 Bohdana 155mm
- 54 M777 155mm
- 36 Panzerhaubitze 2000 155mm
- 18 DITA 155mm
- 18 Krab 155mm
- 18 Archer 155mm
While that might seem like a lot, that's a very small percentage of what the West can produce / refurbish for Ukraine between now and summer 2026. Combined with consistent training of fresh troops to replenish their brigades Ukraine will have the capacity to make any advancement for Russia absolutely miserable and their vehicle losses are only going to get worse as they are forced to advance using less quality.
Russia currently controls just under 18% of Ukraine and their rate of advance has been extremely slow. They've taken approximately 1% of the country since the beginning of 2024 despite the weapons shortages they experienced at throughout the winter / spring. It's only going to get harder for the Russians as American and European aid pours in.
$2.35 Billion usd aid package has been announced. $150 million usd in the package will coming from PDA and $2.3 million usd will be coming from USAI. Contents of the package include:
"Ukraine refuses to capitulate and surrender its territories to Russia only just because of martial law. İf not they would have to lift martial law and elections would be held. "
Together stronger
(the 3rd donated by the Germans) has officially arrived in Ukraine. Approximately 100 Ukrainian Air Force personnel completed training on in the use of the system in Germany. 
