I should've gone with the "dem vote = polling average minus 3-4%" formula once again but I foolishly thought the polls should have corrected the biases they have in sampling. Statistics is the bane of the sciences.
The thing I learn from this mistake is that the influence of social media on general public is growing and the discontent with the systems will create anti-system solutions.
This may sound stupid but this is great news for Zafer party. Last time that constituency, despite dominating social media, only got like 3% vote. Next time I'd not be surprised if they pass 20%. Özdağ's problem is he doesn't have a party on the ground and has tokenized himself into a one-issue guy; otherwise that constituency (young male voter) can have a historic hold on people's minds through their domination of social media (for at least a decade, or maybe two) by having first mover advantage in those places.
The thing I learn from this mistake is that the influence of social media on general public is growing and the discontent with the systems will create anti-system solutions.
This may sound stupid but this is great news for Zafer party. Last time that constituency, despite dominating social media, only got like 3% vote. Next time I'd not be surprised if they pass 20%. Özdağ's problem is he doesn't have a party on the ground and has tokenized himself into a one-issue guy; otherwise that constituency (young male voter) can have a historic hold on people's minds through their domination of social media (for at least a decade, or maybe two) by having first mover advantage in those places.