Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[500]

What are you even talking about? The Russians have gained more territory in the last month than they have in the past, like, 12. It's escalating if anything.

Today Russia controls MUCH LESS Ukrainian territories than they controlled in mid of 2022. Whats nor clear? And I am not even taking about their embarrassing retreat in end of March 2022.

Between Zelensky's (bet your ass reluctant) change in public posture and the reality-shift on the ground, this is going Putin's way, even if you don't factor in the incoming US presidential shift. You sound like "Biden's completely cognitively okay, and fit to contest the election!" three months ago. Sounds good for morale, not the actual reality though. They're done. It's just a matter of how the "they're done" pans out, and over how long.

I dont understand what you are talking. You asked why Russia is advancing, I answered you: because they have lots of manpower and dont care about their losses.

 

[SilverMachine]

...And yet they're advancing all the same. Faster than in previous years since the war began, and evidently with a completely-depleted Ukrainian opposition no longer able to put up much of a fight the way they have beforehand.

The point, very obviously, stands, and Zelensky'd public muddying-of-the-waters on territorial concesssions is further confirmation that the jig is up. He knows it. He has for a while now, but by now it's in the "prepare the Ukrainain civilians for the inevitable" phase of the game.

 

[contricusc]

and evidently with a completely-depleted Ukrainian opposition no longer able to put up much of a fight the way they have beforehand.

Hmm, you have a very strange way of evaluating the Ukrainians as “no longer able to put up much of a fight”. In the meantime, here are some of the estimated numbers from the battlefield:

“Britain's defence ministry says that in November Russia suffered 45,680 casualties, more than during any month since its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

According to the latest UK Defence Intelligence estimate, Russia lost a daily average of 1,523 men, killed and wounded.

On 28 November, it says, Russia lost more than 2,000 men in a single day, the first time this has happened.”

Here’s more:

”All in all, Russia is estimated to have lost about 125,800 soldiers over the course of its autumn offensives, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Russia's "meat-grinder" tactics, the ISW says, mean that Moscow is losing more than 50 soldiers for each square kilometre of captured territory.”

Source:

Russia's 'meat-grinder' tactics bring battlefield success - but at horrendous cost

As 2024 draws to a close, Russian forces are continuing to push their Ukrainian opponents back.

www.bbc.com

 

[Oublious]

This give a idea about the current situation what Russia is in. Ther landforces will use horses if it goes like this, bu this war did milked out the West to. So who have the longest breath will win...

 

[Soldier30]

The Ukrainian medium intelligence ship Simferopol, built on the hull of the Project 502EM trawler, was damaged as a result of a Russian missile attack on the port of Odessa. The intelligence ship Simferopol, part of the 30th division of surface ships, was undergoing trials; the ship was launched in 2019. The ship's armament includes a 30-mm AK-306 artillery mount, a Melkhior electronic intelligence station, and imported wide-range direction-finding antennas. The Russian missile missed the ship and exploded nearby. Apparently, the ship managed to move away from the pier before the missile hit; as a result of the missile strike, a fire started on the Simferopol ship.

 

[Relic]

Tonight USA announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $988 million usd. Today's package was funded with USAI funding and will be procured directly from U.S. industry rather than from existing USA stockpiles. This package after USA announced a $725 million usd package earlier this week. As planned, USA is surging aid to Ukraine prior to Trump taking office. Contents of today's package include the following:

- GMLRS / ATACMS (HIMARS)

- Unmanned Aerial Systems

- Equipment, components and spare parts to maintain, repair and overhaul U.S. donated artillery, MBTs, IFVs and APCs.

Meanwhile, Sweden and Denmark announced that they will work together to send a new military aid package to Ukraine consisting of the following:

- 40 additional CV9035IIIC IFVs

The Netherlands has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $25 million usd consisting of the following:

- Air defense missiles (NASAMS)
- Cyber security
- 30,000 Military uniforms

Biden Administration Announces New Security Assistance Package for Ukraine

The Defense Department announced a significant new security assistance package to ensure Ukraine has the tools it needs to prevail in its fight against Russian aggression.

www.defense.gov

Sweden and Denmark to send 40 CV90 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine as Kyiv expects new offensive on Kherson Oblast - Euromaidan Press

Sweden and Denmark secure a $2.2 billion deal with BAE Systems Hägglunds, jointly financing 40 CV90 infantry fighting vehicles for Ukraine while boosting their own defense capabilities.

euromaidanpress.com

Netherlands allocates €22 million in aid to Ukraine

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

 

[SilverMachine]

Hmm, you have a very strange way of evaluating the Ukrainians as “no longer able to put up much of a fight”. In the meantime, here are some of the estimated numbers from the battlefield:

“Britain's defence ministry says that in November Russia suffered 45,680 casualties, more than during any month since its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

According to the latest UK Defence Intelligence estimate, Russia lost a daily average of 1,523 men, killed and wounded.

On 28 November, it says, Russia lost more than 2,000 men in a single day, the first time this has happened.”

Here’s more:

”All in all, Russia is estimated to have lost about 125,800 soldiers over the course of its autumn offensives, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Russia's "meat-grinder" tactics, the ISW says, mean that Moscow is losing more than 50 soldiers for each square kilometre of captured territory.”

Source:

Russia's 'meat-grinder' tactics bring battlefield success - but at horrendous cost

As 2024 draws to a close, Russian forces are continuing to push their Ukrainian opponents back.

www.bbc.com

Dude, that's entirely the point. Nobody's doubting the Russian losses here. It simply doesn't matter to them, they can eat the losses and Ukraine can't. And if Russia's losing that many dudes, you know damn well the Ukrainians are piling bodies bigtime too, convenient nobody's ever holding up the data there as some "a-hah!'.

The very article you link highlights the 'battlefield success' (their words) the attritional meat-grinder tactics are bringing. That shouldn't be news to anyone ever, this is how Russia's basically always fought their wars. Life is cheap, overwhelm the other side with a fuck-ton of drunk barely-trained fellas with mean attitudes and not much back home to lose. Again, if Biden & his people are telling Zelensky straight-up that he needs to start rounding up 18 year olds to throw into the gauntlet (the guy was already in a bunch of shit domestically the first time he lowered the draft age, popularity cratered, and that was to something like 24 from memory - 18 isn't going to be tolerated at home), reality's finally beginning to set in. This is about men now, not equipment. We can't help them there.

 

[blackjack]

Today Russia controls MUCH LESS Ukrainian territories than they controlled in mid of 2022. Whats nor clear? And I am not even taking about their embarrassing retreat in end of March 2022.

Over a week ago the White House urged Zelensky to lower the conscription age to 18, and a few days ago blinken in an interview urged the younger generation of Ukrainians to fight.... I mean do you expect 12-14 year old Ukrainians to hold off the Russians? Why else would Zelensky want to give up his territory now?

dont understand what you are talking. You asked why Russia is advancing, I answered you: because they have lots of manpower and dont care about their losses.

I think Zelensky is lying about the less than 80k losses because the US wouldn't contact him to lower the mobilization age to 18, Russians having 10 times the fire power, and Ukrainians constantly getting themselves encircled on maps which equals a lot of casualties in a military 101 tactics war book.

 

[500]

Over a week ago the White House urged Zelensky to lower the conscription age to 18, and a few days ago blinken in an interview urged the younger generation of Ukrainians to fight.... I mean do you expect 12-14 year old Ukrainians to hold off the Russians? Why else would Zelensky want to give up his territory now?


I think Zelensky is lying about the less than 80k losses because the US wouldn't contact him to lower the mobilization age to 18, Russians having 10 times the fire power, and Ukrainians constantly getting themselves encircled on maps which equals a lot of casualties in a military 101 tactics war book.

Current population of free Ukraine is less than 30 mln.

Russia population is 144 mln + Russia is also using the population of occupied Ukrainian regions as their cannon fodder (about 6 mln).

Thus Russia has 5 times more population.

Losses are more or less equal - around 150 K killed and 300 K wounded. But for Ukraine these losses are 5 times harder.

 

[SilverMachine]

That's the prudent point then, isn't it? It doesn't really matter how many Russians are meeting their maker when it's a comparable/similar amount for Ukraine in the same theaters. That's still Russia achieving more in the same engagements, as each dead Ukrainian doesn't have some other poor soul willing & able to take his place. Conversely, plenty more Russians where they came from, they're not even close to being anywhere near full mobilization, whereas Ukraine's pretty much using everything & everyone they've got.

 

[contricusc]

The very article you link highlights the 'battlefield success' (their words) the attritional meat-grinder tactics are bringing. That shouldn't be news to anyone ever, this is how Russia's basically always fought their wars.

Yes, but that article also shows how ineffective they are while wasting so many lives, which means the Ukrainians are still mounting a very effective defence.

ISW said that Russia lost more than 50 men for every square kilometer of captured territory. Ukraine had 600k sqkm pre-war, so they still control almost 500k sqkm. At this attrition rate, it would take Russia 25 million men to capture the whole of Ukraine. Everyone knows this is unsustainable even for a country like Russia where life is cheap.

Also, keep in mind that the current gains are outside any major population center. The war has shown how difficult it is to capture cities, and if Russia will try to take Kharkiv or Kyiv again, they will get bogged down and suffer enormous losses for almost no territorial gains.

Add to that the continous consumption of Soviet equipment, which is soon going to be exhausted, and their ability to throw meat with armor at the problem will disappear. They will have to send meat without armor, which will be much more ineffective and will die in even grater numbers for smaller gains.

If Ukraine continues to receive support in the form of weapons and money to keep the economy going, it will be Russia who will run out of gas for the war first.

 

[SilverMachine]

That doesn't add up whatsoever. Ukraine's punching above their weight here. That isn't the same thing as winning, as repelling the invader.

Also have no idea where you're getting a laughable/ridiculous number like 25 million from. The entirely of the Russian military's somewhere north of 2 and likely under 3, and they've not yet mobilized much of that. Like at all. If Russia were drafting every able-bodied Ivan, they'd be ravaging Ukraine right now. With much less guys than 2 mil. They don't need to do that , as slow as the progress may be with a volunteer army + suicidal criminals, it's progress all the same and Ukraine's now feeling the boot on its throat. What, you think Biden & Co are just telling Zelensky to force last-year's highschool graduates to the front-line for shits & giggles? They're getting majorly desperate.

And the fact you think Russia's about to run out of armor & trucks anytime soon, man, I don't even know what to say to that. It's not the reality. Copium's tasty, I don't doubt, but smoking too much of it isn't good for your longtime prospects.

Zelensky's bargaining come January, as if he isn't already. Count on it, this thing's in its final phases, the Big Bad Bear isn't dying from some magic bullet, Ukraine's not being allowed into NATO, and Kyiv will be capital of a free country a quarter or a third smaller than it was in '21. Reality isn't moral, it's just reality.

 

[contricusc]

Also have no idea where you're getting a laughable/ridiculous number like 25 million from.

It’s simple mathematics. If they lose 50 men to capture one sqkm, and Ukraine has 500k sqkm under its control, they would need to lose 25 million men to capture it all at the current pace.

I was just proving to you how ineffective the Russians are fighting right now, and how unsustainable it is to continue like this for a long time.

And the fact you think Russia's about to run out of armor & trucks anytime soon, man, I don't even know what to say to that. It's not the reality. Copium's tasty, I don't doubt, but smoking too much of it isn't good for your longtime prospects.

It’s not copium, it is the reality. Russia is expanding more armor than it produces. The stockpiles of Soviet armor are dwindling every month. Those who are monitoring satellite images of their stockpiled armor are estimating that they will run out of Soviet armor next summer at the current pace of depletion.

They don’t have infinite armor reserves. If they continue to lose them at the current rate, they will run out of them eventually.

Zelensky's bargaining come January, as if he isn't already. Count on it, this thing's in its final phases, the Big Bad Bear isn't dying from some magic bullet, Ukraine's not being allowed into NATO, and Kyiv will be capital of a free country a quarter or a third smaller than it was in '21. Reality isn't moral, it's just reality.

Russians are hoping Trump will save them, but this is far from guaranteed to happen. The Russians have shown how weakend they are with their failure to protect Assad in Syria, and Trump will negotiate from a position of strength. If they don’t agree to his demands, he may very well decide to help Ukraine win the war. Trump is unpredictable, and US foreign policy is greatly influenced by the enrenched establishment. If they convince Trump that it is in the US interest to continue helping Ukraine, Trump may change his position immediately.

 

[SilverMachine]

It’s simple mathematics. If they lose 50 men to capture one sqkm, and Ukraine has 500k sqkm under its control, they would need to lose 25 million men to capture it all at the current pace.

I was just proving to you how ineffective the Russians are fighting right now, and how unsustainable it is to continue like this for a long time.



It’s not copium, it is the reality. Russia is expanding more armor than it produces. The stockpiles of Soviet armor are dwindling every month. Those who are monitoring satellite images of their stockpiled armor are estimating that they will run out of Soviet armor next summer at the current pace of depletion.

They don’t have infinite armor reserves. If they continue to lose them at the current rate, they will run out of them eventually.



Russians are hoping Trump will save them, but this is far from guaranteed to happen. The Russians have shown how weakend they are with their failure to protect Assad in Syria, and Trump will negotiate from a position of strength. If they don’t agree to his demands, he may very well decide to help Ukraine win the war. Trump is unpredictable, and US foreign policy is greatly influenced by the enrenched establishment. If they convince Trump that it is in the US interest to continue helping Ukraine, Trump may change his position immediately.

To the first part, like, sure, if you don't factor in Ukrainian losses to the equation at all and see war as a static situation that doesn't change or evolve.

...Yeah. The Russians aren't doing half as shittily as they were earlier in the war, they learn, they adapt, they catch up, and they have. Whoever and whatever Russia's losing, Ukraine's losing about the same amount, which clearly fucking affects their fighting capacity too. I don't know how you don't seem to get that. Russia's escalating territorial gains lately are pretty plain to see, and a lot of that's simply due to a crapton of Ukrainians being dead, an eight of their army deserting, and the new guys showing up on the front a lot of the time being 50 year old half-blind diabetics or whatever. You don't have to look far to find Ukrainian commanders telling reporters as much.

And nobody said anything about "infinite" armor in Russia. Just that your assertion they're losing it at a rate they can't functionally replace is insane. They're losing a lot of shit, they truly are. What you're not factoring in here is that Russia's nowhere even close to being mobilized as an army. This isn't even really "Russia at war", really, posture-wise. The same people that are saying the Rooskies are shit-out-of-tracked-vehicles are the same people that were saying the Rooskies were running out of missiles and that the sanctions were going to cripple their economy in 2022 and that the population were going to rise up and overthrow a weak-looking Putin and that Kamala fucking Harris was a sure-thing to win the 2024 election.

It's not to be taken seriously.

I can absolutely see Trump zigging when expected to zag, and backing Ukraine more hardcore than Biden did. Yep, that's 100% possible. It just doesn't seem to be the lay of the land at the moment. Ukraine's near out of men, as per the current President of the United fucking States, Zelensky's super-not-popular inside Ukraine, and Trump just wants to be able to say he ended the war and claim he's "the bestest, the biggest & bestest negotiator everrrr, art of the deaaaal, we brought about peace bigly, a tremendous peace". He doesn't give two shits whether Ukraine has to give up Crimea & the Donbass in order for that to happen. Frankly, neither do the Europeans, whatever they may want to say publically.

 

[MaciekRS]

That's the prudent point then, isn't it? It doesn't really matter how many Russians are meeting their maker when it's a comparable/similar amount for Ukraine in the same theaters. That's still Russia achieving more in the same engagements, as each dead Ukrainian doesn't have some other poor soul willing & able to take his place. Conversely, plenty more Russians where they came from, they're not even close to being anywhere near full mobilization, whereas Ukraine's pretty much using everything & everyone they've got.

Well, it DOES matter for russia neighbours.

 

[contricusc]

Whoever and whatever Russia's losing, Ukraine's losing about the same amount, which clearly fucking affects their fighting capacity too. I don't know how you don't seem to get that.

This is obviously not true. By using meat wave tactics with poorly equipped soldiers, the Russians are losing men at a much higher rate than the Ukrainians.

Ukraine is playing a defensive game where it inflicts a lot of damage with minimal losses on its side. They trade territory for a much higher casualty rate inflicted on their enemy.

Of course the Ukrainains are losing men and equipment as well, but to think they are losing at the same rate as the Russians is crazy. If they did, they would have been defeated already.

 

[blackjack]

Current population of free Ukraine is less than 30 mln.

Russia population is 144 mln + Russia is also using the population of occupied Ukrainian regions as their cannon fodder (about 6 mln).

Thus Russia has 5 times more population.

Losses are more or less equal - around 150 K killed and 300 K wounded. But for Ukraine these losses are 5 times harder.

Based on the body exchange the losses of 5 Ukrainians for 1 Russian had increased to 10 Ukrainians per 1 russian.

I dont think you can convince anyone here that is retarded enough (even the most pro-ukraine users) that them having 10 times less firepower and getting themselves surrounded on all sides all the time will have 5 times less the losses.


Are you going to tell me that Ukrainians are lying that they are losing 5 times to now 10 times more men than Russia?

 

[500]

Based on the body exchange the losses of 5 Ukrainians for 1 Russian had increased to 10 Ukrainians per 1 russian.
View attachment 72588
I dont think you can convince anyone here that is retarded enough (even the most pro-ukraine users) that them having 10 times less firepower and getting themselves surrounded on all sides all the time will have 5 times less the losses.
View attachment 72589 View attachment 72590 View attachment 72591

Are you going to tell me that Ukrainians are lying that they are losing 5 times to now 10 times more men than Russia?

Drawing conclusions from 1 exchange is kinda silly. Also since Russia is advancing they capture more bodies that does not tell about casualties.

 

[blackjack]

Drawing conclusions from 1 exchange is kinda silly. Also since Russia is advancing they capture more bodies that does not tell about casualties.

Yeah but the Ukrainians being interviewed of how much of them get killed for 1 soldier is one fact you are not denying, and with lesser equipment than before it's not looking so well.

 

[Soldier30]

Russian sappers showed mine traps that are found in Ukraine. Periodically, mine traps in Ukraine are duplicated several times, which can lead to the death of even an experienced sapper.