Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[contricusc]

- until it became clear that Ukraine would not be defeated in a few days, whereby weapons supplied might fall into Russian hands

Valid reason.

- due to bureaucratic delay

This shows the incompetence of the Western “democratic” system, AKA “bureocratic” system.

- due to US presidential timidity

Another failure of Western leadership, or lack of it.

- due to US policy changing to deny Ukraine decisive weapons (in order to extend the war, thus increasing Russian attrition losses)

Critical mistake, as they didn’t hit when the iron was hot. Russia should have been defeated when it was disorganized and demoralized, instead of being allowed to build fortifications, recruit new soldiers and regroup and modernize their warfare tactics.

Other than the first reasons, all the rest show incompetence.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of an attack by a Russian Molniya-2 UAV equipped with a TM-62M anti-tank mine. Molniya-2 drones with an enhanced warhead were used to attack Ukrainian temporary deployment points in the area of the village of Bogatyr in the South Donetsk direction.

 

[Soldier30]

The Hungarian army has moved military equipment to the borders of Ukraine. According to eyewitnesses, Hungarian tanks and armored vehicles were spotted at 5 main checkpoints on the Hungarian-Ukrainian border: Záhony, Beregsurány, Tiszabecs, Barabas and Nagybodos. It is worth noting that relations between Hungary and Ukraine have been difficult lately. There have been no official statements from the Hungarian Ministry of Defense yet.

 

[Soldier30]

A Russian serviceman filmed the moment when Ukrainian HIMARS missiles struck a bridge near the village of Tetkino in the Belgorod region of Russia. At the moment of the strike, there was a truck and a jeep stuck in a crater on the bridge.

 

[Soldier30]

A Russian serviceman filmed the moment when Ukrainian HIMARS missiles struck a bridge near the village of Tetkino in the Belgorod region of Russia. At the moment of the strike, there was a truck and a jeep stuck in a crater on the bridge.

 

[Woland]

Let's recap what happened in the last couple days.

Last week, the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, Poland and Ukraine gathered in Kyiv and agreed to demand an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting May 12 (yesterday). If there is no ceasefire, they would increase sanctions on Russia and military aid to Ukraine. The five of them, together, then phoned Trump and got him on board. It's important to remember that a ceasefire was one of the things Trump had been pushing for several months now, and the European leaders were offering a plan in line with Trump's demands and rhetoric.

Russia effectively refused the ceasefire, instead announcing that they want negotiations to settle the differences. This should have meant increased sanctions and aid go into effect, as everyone agreed. Instead, Trump made this post. The absurdity of this is not lost on the European allies, but the US remains essential, so the Europeans set out to show Trump once more how unserious Putin is about peace. Zelensky announced that he will go to Turkey; the language he used made it clear that he expects Putin himself to be there, a leader talking to a leader. He also stated he still expected a ceasefire starting Monday, which the leaders of the UK, France, Germany and Poland, in addition to Turkey echoed.

Monday came, and there was no ceasefire. Now the question is whether Putin will show up. Russian spokesmen have criticized the idea of these negotiations but continue stating that a final decision of who will come has not yet been made.

It's worth noting that despite Trump's abject failure as a negotiator in all this, there is some use out of Zelensky meeting with Putin one-on-one. One of the key narratives Russia pushes is that Zelensky is not in charge, but rather Western powers are the ones in charge and collectively fighting Russia. Putin and his spokespeople regularly state that they want to meet with the "Western curators" to settle the war, not Zelensky. This narrative does several things; it denies agency to Ukraine, and explains that Russia is fighting the entirety of the West, making it easier to explain Russia's inability to win. If Putin meets with Zelensky one-on-one, Zelensky no longer appears a puppet of the "greater powers" but Putin's peer.

Zelensky's position should be either an unconditional ceasefire now or direct negotiations with Putin. If Putin doesn't show up (which I find likely), Zelensky should refuse to negotiate with Putin's underlinings. It's very unfortunate that Trump continues to weaken the position of Ukraine and European allies, but this is where we are.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of an attack by Russian Mi-28NM helicopters using Vikhr-1 guided missiles on a Ukrainian military column. The video was filmed near the border of Russia's Kursk region. The Ukrainian column consists of 4 armored vehicles; the models of the vehicles could not be identified. Technical information on the Russian 9M127-1 Vikhr-1 missiles is in the link to the video in the comments to the clip.

 

[Soldier30]

An episode of the assault by a Russian unit, a stronghold of the Ukrainian army, using two TM-62M anti-tank mines. This method of assault has become quite common, anti-tank mines are used instead of grenades, since the effect of their use is stronger. The TM-62M anti-tank mine was developed in the USSR in the early 1960s, it is used by many armies, the mass of explosive in it is up to 10 kg. The video is shortened and filmed in Donbass, the exact location is unknown, as a result of the battle, several Ukrainian servicemen surrendered, shown at the end of the video.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of combat use in Ukraine of the X-39 LMUR guided missile by a Russian Ka-52 helicopter. The location of the shooting is not reported. The video shows a strike by a Russian X-39 missile on a Ukrainian drone control center located in one of the buildings. X-39 missiles can also be used by Mi-28 helicopters.

 

[Woland]

Putin is not coming to negotiations in Turkey. He's sending a low-ranked delegation headed by Vladimir Medinsky. I discussed the implications of this here.

Sending a low-ranked delegation is also a slap in the face of Trump, who is sending a high-level delegation headed by the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. Additionally from the US side there will be Kellogg and Witkoff.

Trump is not coming, whereas Zelensky has already departed for Ankara.

 

[Relic]

French President Macron announced today that France will send all CAESAR howitzers produced by Nexter in 2025 to Ukraine. Nexter is producing 12 CAESAR howitzers per month (144 units per year). Funding for the purchase is coming from France's own 2025 commitment and interest from Russian assets frozen in France.

Each CAESAR costs approximately $4 million usd. 144 units will cost France approximately $576 million usd in 2025. Previous to 2025 Ukraine had received 70+ howitzers from France and Denmark . 12 of those units have been visually damaged or destroyed during the war.

France provides Ukraine with all weapons produced in 2025 - Macron

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

France Commits All Its 2025 CAESAR Howitzer Production to Ukraine

Several military issues websites say that the French president has undertaken to send this year’s total production of the weapon to Kyiv.

www.kyivpost.com

 

[contricusc]

French President Macron announced today that France will send all CAESAR howitzers produced by Nexter in 2025 to Ukraine. Nexter is producing 12 CAESAR howitzers per month (144 units per year).

This is how it ahould be done!

All European countries should follow this model and boost production of equipment and send it to Ukraine to outmatch Russia’s production capability.

The production of CAESARS was very low at the begining of the war, but now at 12 per month it can really stack up, meaning more availability on the frontline for Ukraine. This very mobile and high precision howitzer will weight more and more on the frontline as numbers rise.

Now we need to see the same story for PZH 2000 and for Archers, the other two top notch howitzers. Also, Krabs and Zuzana 2 are more than welcome and should boost the Ukrainian artillery.

It is important for Ukraine to receive more units than it loses, so it can slowly build mass of high accuracy artillery, which will make Russian advances much more costly,

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of Russian FPV drones attacking a Ukrainian Leopard 1A5 tank. The video was shot near the town of Stepanovka in the Donetsk direction. The Leopard 1A5 tank was created in Germany in 1987, it is a modernization of the first Leopard-1 tank, it has already been decommissioned. When creating the Leopard 1A5 tank, the designers relied on a powerful gun and excellent mobility, while the tank has weak basic armor. Judging by the video, the drone hit the place where the tank driver is located. Because of this, the Ukrainian Leopard 1A5 tank became uncontrollable and drove into a trench, where it eventually got stuck and was destroyed by drones.

 

[Relic]

This is how it ahould be done!

All European countries should follow this model and boost production of equipment and send it to Ukraine to outmatch Russia’s production capability.

The production of CAESARS was very low at the begining of the war, but now at 12 per month it can really stack up, meaning more availability on the frontline for Ukraine. This very mobile and high precision howitzer will weight more and more on the frontline as numbers rise.

Now we need to see the same story for PZH 2000 and for Archers, the other two top notch howitzers. Also, Krabs and Zuzana 2 are more than welcome and should boost the Ukrainian artillery.

It is important for Ukraine to receive more units than it loses, so it can slowly build mass of high accuracy artillery, which will make Russian advances much more costly,

Ukraine is actually slowly reaching a point where they don't need all of Europe's self-propelled howitzers to be sent to them in a given year. The limitation is not howitzers, it's availability of artillery shells and barrels.

Ukraine is now receiving CAESAR, Panzerhaubitze 2000, Krab, Zuzana 2, DITA, Archer and RCH 155... On top of domestic production of Bohdana 2 in the self-propelled and towed variant. Estimates are that Ukraine can field around 250-300 155mm howitzers at any given time. Much more than that and they won't have the barrels, nor the artillery shells required to put them to work.

Ukraine still has hundreds of 155mm howitzers left from previous donations. M777s, M109s, CAESARs, FH70, Krab, AS-90, Panzerhaubitze 2000, Archer, Zuzana 2 and DITA. They certainly need a steady influx to replace losses and to bolster their domestically made Bohdana 2s, but they can't field all of Europe's annual production right now due the factors I mentioned.

To the contrary an area where Ukraine absolutely NEEDS all of Europe's production, or alternatively, older units replaced by new production, is in the infantry fighting vehicle / armored fighting vehicle category. These things not only pack significant firepower, they save a tremendous number of lives.

Marder, AMX10-RC, CV90, Lynx, Rosomak, Warrior, Bradley (USA), LAV 6.0 (Canada)... Ukraine needs it all. Hell, they'll take every BMP-1 and BMP-2 left in Europe and they also need all the funding and production help they can get with domestically made BTR-4.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of the explosion of a Ukrainian armored vehicle "MaxxPro", American-made, on a mine barrier in the Kharkov region of Ukraine. The mine barrier of TM-62M mines was installed on the road using the Russian homemade robotic complex "Miner". The tracked drone "Miner" was created by military engineers of the "West" group of forces, judging by the video, they have established small-scale production, there are no technical details on the ground drone "Miner" yet.

 

[Woland]

Since Putin didn't show up and sent a low-level delegation, today Zelensky announced that Umerov (Ukraine's Defense Minister) will be the one leading negotiations with the Russian delegation, and that Umerov only has the mandate to negotiate a ceasefire, nothing more. This despite the fact that Sybiha (Ukraine's Minister of Foreign Affairs) was already in Ankara, but since there's no Putin the only thing worth discussing with a low-level delegation is a ceasefire, and they won't get Ukraine's MFA either.

As previously mentioned, Putin clearly snubbed the high-level US delegation. When asked about it, Trump had this take:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1922917576289681505

Relatable translation:
- Jennifer do you want to go to the dance?
- No, go away
- I wasn't even planning on going to the dance. I don't even want to go to the dance. Jennifer will come around eventually.

Now Rubio is echoing Trump, and says nothing can be resolved until Trump and Putin meet in person: (0:34 seconds).

This is pathetic, and is a continuation of Trump undermining the united front presented just a week ago by Ukraine, European allies, and as they thought then, the US.

 

[Fuzuli NL]

Since Putin didn't show up and sent a low-level delegation, today Zelensky announced that Umerov (Ukraine's Defense Minister) will be the one leading negotiations with the Russian delegation, and that Umerov only has the mandate to negotiate a ceasefire, nothing more. This despite the fact that Sybiha (Ukraine's Minister of Foreign Affairs) was already in Ankara, but since there's no Putin the only thing worth discussing with a low-level delegation is a ceasefire, and they won't get Ukraine's MFA either.

As previously mentioned, Putin clearly snubbed the high-level US delegation. When asked about it, Trump had this take:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1922917576289681505

Relatable translation:
- Jennifer do you want to go to the dance?
- No, go away
- I wasn't even planning on going to the dance. I don't even want to go to the dance. Jennifer will come around eventually.

Now Rubio is echoing Trump, and says nothing can be resolved until Trump and Putin meet in person: (0:34 seconds).

This is pathetic, and is a continuation of Trump undermining the united front presented just a week ago by Ukraine, European allies, and as they thought then, the US.

Why am I not surprised?

 

[contricusc]

This is pathetic, and is a continuation of Trump undermining the united front presented just a week ago by Ukraine, European allies, and as they thought then, the US.

I don’t think any sane European still thinks that the US is on our side anymore. Under Trump, the US sees Europe as a pesky nuisance that should be ignored and insulted from time to time.

Europeans should understand that Trump is a lost cause, and they are wasting their time by trying to appease him. He should be put on the “ignore list” and they should prepare for continuing the war with Russia without the US.

Every time Europeans try to appease Trump, they just inflate his ego and make him feel important and strong. The solution with Trump is to ignore him and make him feel irrelevant. Too bad Starmer doesn’t waste any opportunity to kiss Trump’s backside. The US-UK “trade deal” is just another unnecessary humiliation, but what can you expect from someone who wants to give the Chagos Islands to Mauritius and also pay them money for it?

 

[Relic]

A train carrying 18 Cheetah (Gepard) air defense systems was seen traveling through Germany , on route to Ukraine. USA and The Netherlands teamed up to buy 60 units of the air defense system from Jordan , approximately 2 years ago. Those 60 units were to be shipped back to Germany in batches, where they'd be refurbished and upgraded, before being sent to Ukraine. This is surely one of those batches. How many of the 60 units have already been sent to Ukraine? We're sure. However, they drone killing "specialists" will certainly bolster Ukraine's air defense network.

A significant aspect of the Ukrainian / Western strategy regarding Ukraine's air defense is to increase the number of capable systems dedicated to destroying drones and lower end cruise missiles, so that Ukraine can save it's much more valuable and harder to stock quanties of Patriot PAC 2/3 (Patriot), Aster-30 (SAMP/T) and IRIS-T missiles to intercept Russian ballistic missiles and higher end cruise missiles.

Among the systems that Ukraine is currently fielding (in increasing quantities) to destroy Russian drones are the following:

- NASAMS
- Vampire (APKWS)
- Avenger
- FrankenSAM (BUK variant)
- Gepard
- Cheetah (Gepard variant)
- Stormer HVMs
- Martlet
- 9K35 Strela-10M
- Spada 2000 I
- Crotale NG
- MIM-23 Hawk
- S-125 Newa SC
- 9K33-OSA
- Skyguard Aspide
- Supacat HMT (ASRAAM)
- Gravehawk (R-73)
- 2K12M2 Kub-M2
- CA-95
- Skynex
- Diehl Kenetic
- Terrahawk Paladin
- RBS-70 (MANPAD)
- Piorun (MANPAD)
- Stinger (MANPAD)
- Strela (MANPAD)
- IGLA (MANPAD)
- Mistral (MANPAD)
- Starstreak (MANPAD)

German Aid to Ukraine (@deaidua.org)

More than two weeks ago, a larger column of at least 18 Cheetah SPAAGs without insignia was spotted by one of my followers in Eastern Germany. It can be assumed that the train was travelling eastwards to #Ukraine. 1/5

bsky.app

 

[Spitfire9]

a minute of reality

Russian economy is collapsing! #russia #ukraine #economy

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