Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[contricusc]

Short of Russia's assets being confiscated to the tune of $175 Billion usd and the EU essentially taking over payment of the Ukrainian military using those funds, I have no idea where Ukraine is going to get money needed to attract quantities of additional soldiers.

That would be a possibility. Ukraine doesn’t have the money to properly pay its soldiers, but Europe has. Since Ukrainians are defending the whole continent, Europe should pay the fighters a proper wage that would encourage voluntary enrollment.

It’s pathetic that the righteous Europeans, who cry about climate change and human rights, are hiding behind slave soldiers to defend themselves, and conveniently remain quiet, because they would rather have conscripts dying for them instead of spending more money to pay volunteers.

 

[Soldier30]

Unique footage of a Russian FAB-500 aerial bomb equipped with a UMPK module flying past a drone. The video was filmed near the village of Andriivka in Ukraine's Sumy Oblast. A Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber carried out the strike on Ukrainian army positions with three FAB-500 aerial bombs.

 

[Spitfire9]

Oil and gas exports have been a mainstay of Russian government revenue for a long time. It seems that customers are hesitant to place orders for crude subsequent to the recent sanctions against Rosneft and Ukoil. Jo Blogs (link below) observes that to maintain production of crude Russia has started loading tankers and sailing them away with no customer or destination port. However many 'shadow tankers' Russia has, it will not be long before all land storage capacity and tanker storage capacity will be consumed, at which point Russian crude production will need to be reduced.

Of course, all the crude stored in Russian tankers on the high seas does not give the Russian government any revenue. I can imagine some buyers exploiting the situation to buy Russian crude at a massive discount to the world price. If Russia was getting, say, 50 USD per barrel on average so far in 2025 for 4 million barrels a day, anything becomes possible when Russia has nowhere to store its production. At that point Russia may have to sell at almost any price the buyer offers.

My 'back of envelop' calculation:

4 million bpd @ 50 USD per barrel = revenue of 200 million USD per day or around 75 billion USD per year.

2(?) million bpd @ 20 USD per barrel = revenue of 40(?) million USD per day or around 15(?) billion USD per year..

The war should rapidly become unaffordable for Russia. Yippee!

And you have people like Putin and Trump thinking they can force a 'peace' deal onto Ukraine just as things look to get far, far worse for Russian finances and GDP in the very near future!

IMO Zelensky should politely study the peace proposal at great length to humour Trump. The longer he studies it, the better.

 

[Soldier30]

Rare footage of the new Russian TOS-3 "Dragon" heavy self-propelled flamethrower in action in Ukraine. The video shows the TOS-3 "Dragon" in action as part of the Russian Forces Group Center in the Pokrovsk direction. The TOS-3 "Dragon" was first demonstrated in 2024. The TOS-3 is compared in effectiveness to tactical nuclear weapons. Its extended launch container allows for the use of upgraded TBS-3M thermobaric rockets at ranges of up to 15 km. Hiding from the explosion of a thermobaric bomb or projectile is virtually impossible. Fuel-air explosive munitions are ideal for destroying fortifications, such as dugouts, bunkers, and permanent fire positions.

 

[Relic]

That would be a possibility. Ukraine doesn’t have the money to properly pay its soldiers, but Europe has. Since Ukrainians are defending the whole continent, Europe should pay the fighters a proper wage that would encourage voluntary enrollment.

It’s pathetic that the righteous Europeans, who cry about climate change and human rights, are hiding behind slave soldiers to defend themselves, and conveniently remain quiet, because they would rather have conscripts dying for them instead of spending more money to pay volunteers.

Do you have a feel for what a "proper wage" is given the circumstances? Or how much Europe would have to be willing to pay in order to attract to 200,000'ish troops Ukraine needs to fully replenish their brigades, while creating new assault brigades?

Just curious what you think the cost might be?

"Napkin math" tells me that if Ukraine wants to maintain an army of 600,000 troops and pays them an average annual salary of even $50,000 usd... It would cost approximately $30 Billion usd per year. The EU + Canada + Britain + Norway could easily split that cost and make it work, but I don't see it happening.

 

[Spitfire9]

Do you have a feel for what a "proper wage" is given the circumstances? Or how much Europe would have to be willing to pay in order to attract to 200,000'ish troops Ukraine needs to fully replenish their brigades, while creating new assault brigades?

Just curious what you think the cost might be?

"Napkin math" tells me that if Ukraine wants to maintain an army of 600,000 troops and pays them an average annual salary of even $50,000 usd... It would cost approximately $30 Billion usd per year. The EU + Canada + Britain + Norway could easily split that cost and make it work, but I don't see it happening.

The average annual salary in Ukraine is less than 7,000 USD according to google. I do not know how much soldiers are paid but I do not see why they should need to be paid 7 times the average salary to motivate them to defend their country.

However... if Europe + Canada want Ukraine to survive, I agree that financing very high wartime salaries for Ukrainians may be necessary if that is what Ukrainians demand to agree to combat service.

 

[Soldier30]

The Russian Burevestnik unit demonstrated NRTK Kurier robotic systems used to clear a mine barrier installed on a road. The Ukrainian army used TM-62 anti-tank mines to create the minefield. It's worth noting that this is the first time a minefield containing such a large number of mines has been captured on video. The location of the filming was not disclosed.

 

[mehmed beg]

Oil and gas exports have been a mainstay of Russian government revenue for a long time. It seems that customers are hesitant to place orders for crude subsequent to the recent sanctions against Rosneft and Ukoil. Jo Blogs (link below) observes that to maintain production of crude Russia has started loading tankers and sailing them away with no customer or destination port. However many 'shadow tankers' Russia has, it will not be long before all land storage capacity and tanker storage capacity will be consumed, at which point Russian crude production will need to be reduced.

Of course, all the crude stored in Russian tankers on the high seas does not give the Russian government any revenue. I can imagine some buyers exploiting the situation to buy Russian crude at a massive discount to the world price. If Russia was getting, say, 50 USD per barrel on average so far in 2025 for 4 million barrels a day, anything becomes possible when Russia has nowhere to store its production. At that point Russia may have to sell at almost any price the buyer offers.

My 'back of envelop' calculation:

4 million bpd @ 50 USD per barrel = revenue of 200 million USD per day or around 75 billion USD per year.

2(?) million bpd @ 20 USD per barrel = revenue of 40(?) million USD per day or around 15(?) billion USD per year..

The war should rapidly become unaffordable for Russia. Yippee!

And you have people like Putin and Trump thinking they can force a 'peace' deal onto Ukraine just as things look to get far, far worse for Russian finances and GDP in the very near future!

IMO Zelensky should politely study the peace proposal at great length to humour Trump. The longer he studies it, the better.

How many deals , Russia has made in regards of nuclear power stations etc , this year?
In any case, it is all over for Ukrainians.

 

[Spitfire9]

How many deals , Russia has made in regards of nuclear power stations etc , this year?
In any case, it is all over for Ukrainians.

Congratulations to the Russian nuclear industry if it has won some contracts for nuclear power stations this year. I imagine that will improve Russian GDP over the next 7-10 years.

Urals oil now needs a 30%-40% discount to attract a buyer thanks to the Rosneft and Lukoil sanctions coming into force 21st November. China, India and Turkiye are all reported to be buying less Russian crude. I think Russian government revenues from crude will reduce dramatically in 2026, making continuing the war impractical financially. Of course the government can delay payment to companies producing arms because they only have one customer - the government. Government employees of all kinds, companies building or maintaining infrastructure etc can also be made to wait. If you are halfway through building a road, you can't put it on a load of trucks and sell it to some other customer, can you?

I think it will be a case of Putin trying to hang on financially from now on. I believe that the national wealth fund has been selling a lot of the 242 tonnes of gold it had to raise money.

The civil side of the economy was heading for recession before the Rosneft and Lukoil sanctions. Their exports represented about 1.5% of Russian GDP. If those go, GDP which has probably grown at 0% in the last 365 days can be expected to enter negative growth from now on.

I hear that around 6,700 of the 45,000 transport companies are in the process of liquidation. Why would 10%-15% of the country's transport companies be disappearing? Could that have anything to do with there being less goods produced?

Because of changes in the VAT regulations from 2026, a lot of businesses have chosen to shut down before 2026 arrives. In the civil side of the economy some companies are reducing work from 5 to 4 days a week. Other companies are choosing to service their bank debts rather than pay their employees. They don't have enough money left to do both. There is a lot more bad news I have not mentioned. Mining, inflation, banks...

So Russia is in deep economic and financial trouble. I would say much worse than a year ago. I would rate Ukraine's chances of surviving the nightmare caused by Putin's war above Putin's now.

PS I don't think Putin will stop. I think he will drive Russia into bankruptcy first.

 

[mehmed beg]

Oh Ukraine will survive, I am sure, with God knows which debt and loss of the population. Also I am sure, when someone has huge energy, mining, agricultural and military resources will survive even better.
I just read, USA in order to guaranty futures security of Ukraine, is ready , to provide them with Tomahawks, no less. Probably 5 millions a piece.
Why would someone need nukes, kh 22 , TU160 , TU22 etc , when you get such honour to buy, the missiles, which have been tested against some lightly armed tribes.
Imagine the honour, when the Jewery , buys pound for penny.
Let's see , what happens in Switzerland.
In the practical terms, I hope that some countries that I appreciate, can use , many of experienced but discontent Ukrainian specialists.
I bet , there won't be any enquiry post facto.
I guess, a lot of USA companies will " rebuilt" Ukraine and make deal in Russia. Mindich and co will enjoy in Haifa etc. European Union will ensure that European Tax payers loose as much as possible.
Russia has means to recover but Ukraine no.