TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Fatman17]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2085702087992856891

 

[Afif]

Regarding the Saudi-Pakistan 'mutual defence' agreement signed last September, the talk in some diplomatic circles here in India is that either an understanding has been reached and/or assurances have been given (probably during NSA Doval's visit to Riyadh or earlier), that the Saudis will not be getting involved in any future India-Pakistan conflagration, and that the deal is only meant for Pakistan to serve the Saudis' interests, but not vice-versa. That remains to be seen in reality. The next bout of fighting in the subcontinent may not be far off so that will be tested soon.

But like you pointed you, the reverse (Pakistan treating an attack on Saudi as an attack on itself, as per terms of the Sep 2025 agreement) has already been tested and has come up short. Iran has been consistently attacking the Saudis (not just US bases but Saudis' own oil infrastructure). In light of Iran's attacks on US-allied countries in the region following last year's Op. Midnight Hammer, followed by Israel's attack on Hamas officials in Qatar, it made some strategic sense as to why the Saudi-Pak agreement came about as a means of potentially enhancing deterrence against future attacks, actual deliverables notwithstanding.

But Iran has already called this bluff. Pakistan will not be attacking Iran on Saudi's behalf either. In fact some Gulf countries (Saudi, Kuwait, UAE, maybe Qatar) have actually carried out several discreet retaliatory air strikes on Iran over the course of this war, but Pakistan has not gotten involved in those actions.

And as of the last few weeks, even Yemen's Houthis have called that bluff by attacking Saudi infrastructure, and received no Pakistani response.

I don't yet know if the new Saudi-Pak-Turkey agreement changes anything, but what is certain now is that the Saudi-Pak agreement, which was similarly worded as this one, has been a bit of a sham. If it's purpose was deterrence, then it has failed. If it's purpose was actual deliverables, it has also failed. If that agreement was aimed at creating a NATO Article 5-like deterrence structure, it has missed that goal by a long shot.

I think it requires the attacked country to invoke the clause first to be aided. Which Saudi didn't do so far afaik.

 

[TheInsider]

I don't know how Turkiye, Pak and SA will work jointly on Kaan. There is nothing to develop anymore other than the engine, and the engine has already completed the PDR phase and the CDR phase has started. Saudis might get a local assembly if they order a huge amount. Pakistan won't get block 10 or 20 because of F110 engine(I'm %100 sure the US won't give an export license) and earliest date for the national engine is by the end of 2032-Q1 2033. I guess Pakistan can send its own national weapons for integration to block 30 after 2030

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2085702087992856891

 

[Fatman17]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2085996034061459744

 

[Ripley]

Because of a technical problem on my side, I can’t post as much as I like recently but all I wanna say is Saudi Arabia never seeks alliances. it simply buys protection even maybe more than other GCC countries. So, no matter what it says on any paper signed, just be cautious when defining it as an alliance.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2086140563854660045

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2086142960375119928

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2086146676155175161

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2086149953835905033

Turkey dealt a blow to Israel's "Abraham Accords" plan.

 

[Barry]

Pakistan i understand, nuclear tech, there's some cooperation regarding training/production etc going on, plus a friendly nation.

Saudi though? Produces nothing but oil, sex offenders and traitors to the ummah, spreads the disease of wahabism/salafism across the globe, helping drag Islam into the mud globally, can't protect itself against Iran because it's dependent on its white masters for arms/defence and got slapped around by some spicy Houthi lads for the last 11 years in a war they themselves started.

When they swallow a load more Iranian ballistics are we going to die for them because they're functionally useless at warfare and defence? WHAT A DEAL

 

[Zafer]

Türkiye and Pakistan have excess defence capability that they can sell to Arabia. Arabia has excess buying power that they can use to buy defence capabilities from whoever but they are fed up with fraudster and incapable vendors.

Global firepower ratings, less is more, it shows capability shortcoming, 0 (zero) is optimal

US​	0.0741
China​	0.0919
Türkiye​	0.1975 more like 0.17 today
Pakistan​	0.2626
Saudi Arabia​	0.4473
TR+SA+PK​	0.1000 my estimate, 90% self reliant, 382 million population 5% of world, 6.7% income

 

[Gessler]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2086275761246265789

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2086276111873307083

There weren't any attacks on Saudi oil facilities for quite a few days prior. Probably not a coincidence that this is happening now.

Iran is using its Houthi proxies to test the new alliance.

 

[Fatman17]

https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/07/middleeast/saudi-arabia-turkey-pakistan-pact-intl

Saudi Arabia has drawn two of the Muslim world’s most formidable military powers into its defense as the Iran war moves closer to the kingdom

 

[Sanchez]

Last few days were interesting.

"Mecca Agreement", is not a military pact at this stage. It's clearly a framework agreement with specifics to be covered in the future. But, this shouldn't make one think that it's something ordinary. It is monumental in its own right. There will be many naysayers from multiple parties of course, from atlantic, Israel, Russia, Iran, subcontinent, but making these three countries to put out an agreement and asking others to join in is very important.

I actually agree with the politicians that it is neither anti Iran nor anti Israel. In an ideal world both Israel and Iran would also join the pact in the next decade, this probably won't happen.

Turkey won't send aircraft to Pakistan to fight India when India is fighting "terrorists" next time, nor will it send commandos to Yemen. Pakistan won't deploy fighters to Aegean, Saudi won't cut its hefty relationship with India. But in time we will probably see more TR/SA support to Pakistan both financially and in ISR, Turkey will probably send assets to Red Sea, Saudi will probably invest more heavily in Syria, help curtail Iran in Iraq and support development road and not IMEC. I wouldn't call IMEC dead just yet, but its importance is lowered considerably starting from this week.

 

[Fuzuli NL]

Last few days were interesting.

"Mecca Agreement", is not a military pact at this stage. It's clearly a framework agreement with specifics to be covered in the future. But, this shouldn't make one think that it's something ordinary. It is monumental in its own right. There will be many naysayers from multiple parties of course, from atlantic, Israel, Russia, Iran, subcontinent, but making these three countries to put out an agreement and asking others to join in is very important.

I actually agree with the politicians that it is neither anti Iran nor anti Israel. In an ideal world both Israel and Iran would also join the pact in the next decade, this probably won't happen.

Turkey won't send aircraft to Pakistan to fight India when India is fighting "terrorists" next time, nor will it send commandos to Yemen. Pakistan won't deploy fighters to Aegean, Saudi won't cut its hefty relationship with India. But in time we will probably see more TR/SA support to Pakistan both financially and in ISR, Turkey will probably send assets to Red Sea, Saudi will probably invest more heavily in Syria, help curtail Iran in Iraq and support development road and not IMEC. I wouldn't call IMEC dead just yet, but its importance is lowered considerably starting from this week.

Yeah. Well put!

 

[Ripley]

Iran is using its Houthi proxies to test the new alliance.

Seems so. But Iran is extremely experienced to know better than thAt at such an early stage of “alliance “, they might only get maybe de escalation statements.

 

[Fatman17]

Seems so. But Iran is extremely experienced to know better than thAt at such an early stage of “alliance “, they might only get maybe de escalation statements.

Any retaliation for the Houthis attacks by the KSA airforce would be enough IMHO. The alliance may not be invoked.

 

[Bogeyman]

Last few days were interesting.

"Mecca Agreement", is not a military pact at this stage. It's clearly a framework agreement with specifics to be covered in the future. But, this shouldn't make one think that it's something ordinary. It is monumental in its own right. There will be many naysayers from multiple parties of course, from atlantic, Israel, Russia, Iran, subcontinent, but making these three countries to put out an agreement and asking others to join in is very important.

I actually agree with the politicians that it is neither anti Iran nor anti Israel. In an ideal world both Israel and Iran would also join the pact in the next decade, this probably won't happen.

Turkey won't send aircraft to Pakistan to fight India when India is fighting "terrorists" next time, nor will it send commandos to Yemen. Pakistan won't deploy fighters to Aegean, Saudi won't cut its hefty relationship with India. But in time we will probably see more TR/SA support to Pakistan both financially and in ISR, Turkey will probably send assets to Red Sea, Saudi will probably invest more heavily in Syria, help curtail Iran in Iraq and support development road and not IMEC. I wouldn't call IMEC dead just yet, but its importance is lowered considerably starting from this week.

May 18, 2026

Pakistan has deployed 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter jets and an air defence system to Saudi Arabia under a mutual defence pact, ramping up military cooperation with ‌Riyadh even as Islamabad serves as the main mediator in the Iran war.

All five sources said the deployment includes around 8,000 troops, with a pledge to send more if needed, as well as a Chinese HQ-9 air defence system.

One of the government sources, who has seen the text of the confidential defence pact, said it provides for the possibility of up to 80,000 Pakistani troops being deployed to Saudi Arabia, to help secure the kingdom's borders alongside Saudi forces.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-deploys-jet-squadron-thousands-troops-saudi-arabia-during-iran-war-2026-05-18/

As soon as the ceasefire was signed in the 40-day war, Pakistan indicated it could potentially deploy 80,000 troops to Saudi Arabia. They have already deployed 1-2 squadrons of JF-17s.

Therefore, it wouldn't be surprising if Türkiye undertook a similar initiative. Yesterday, Hakan Fidan emphasized this precisely. If Saudi Arabia expects support from its partners in the event of an attack, that support will not go unreciprocated. If the same call comes from Türkiye and Pakistan, other countries will provide support.

You cannot create deterrence against your enemies without an agreement that will be implemented like Article 5 of NATO. At its core, this requires believing that the agreement will be activated when you need help; and your enemies must see this belief reflected in defense purchases/technology sharing, the establishment of permanent bases, and military exercises.

If this agreement remains only on paper, as you say, you cannot intimidate anyone (neither Iran nor Israel).

 

[Fatman17]

May 18, 2026

Pakistan has deployed 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter jets and an air defence system to Saudi Arabia under a mutual defence pact, ramping up military cooperation with ‌Riyadh even as Islamabad serves as the main mediator in the Iran war.

All five sources said the deployment includes around 8,000 troops, with a pledge to send more if needed, as well as a Chinese HQ-9 air defence system.

One of the government sources, who has seen the text of the confidential defence pact, said it provides for the possibility of up to 80,000 Pakistani troops being deployed to Saudi Arabia, to help secure the kingdom's borders alongside Saudi forces.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-deploys-jet-squadron-thousands-troops-saudi-arabia-during-iran-war-2026-05-18/

As soon as the ceasefire was signed in the 40-day war, Pakistan indicated it could potentially deploy 80,000 troops to Saudi Arabia. They have already deployed 1-2 squadrons of JF-17s.

Therefore, it wouldn't be surprising if Türkiye undertook a similar initiative. Yesterday, Hakan Fidan emphasized this precisely. If Saudi Arabia expects support from its partners in the event of an attack, that support will not go unreciprocated. If the same call comes from Türkiye and Pakistan, other countries will provide support.

You cannot create deterrence against your enemies without an agreement that will be implemented like Article 5 of NATO. At its core, this requires believing that the agreement will be activated when you need help; and your enemies must see this belief reflected in defense purchases/technology sharing, the establishment of permanent bases, and military exercises.

If this agreement remains only on paper, as you say, you cannot intimidate anyone (neither Iran nor Israel).

Pakistan deployed a major combat contingent—including up to 13,000 troops, a squadron of JF-17 fighter jets, drone units, and Chinese-made HQ-9 air defense systems—to Saudi Arabia's King Abdulaziz Air Base. This deployment operates under a bilateral mutual defense agreement signed by the two nations. [1, 2]

Deployment Overview

• • Troop Strength: Roughly 8,000 to 13,000 active military personnel deployed to forward positions in the kingdom's Eastern Province. [1, 2, 3]
  • Air Power & Hardware: Around 16 JF-17 fighter jets, support aircraft, drone squadrons, and HQ-9 air defense units operated entirely by Pakistani personnel. [1, 2]
  • Financing & Context: The mission is funded by Riyadh and shifts Pakistan's historic training and advisory presence into a direct combat-ready defense posture amid regional tensions. [1, 2, 3]
  • The Defense Pact: Stemming from a strategic mutual defense framework, the agreement treats an attack on one nation as an attack on both, with provisions allowing for even larger force deployments if required

 

[Bogeyman]

May 18, 2026

Pakistan has deployed 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter jets and an air defence system to Saudi Arabia under a mutual defence pact, ramping up military cooperation with ‌Riyadh even as Islamabad serves as the main mediator in the Iran war.

All five sources said the deployment includes around 8,000 troops, with a pledge to send more if needed, as well as a Chinese HQ-9 air defence system.

One of the government sources, who has seen the text of the confidential defence pact, said it provides for the possibility of up to 80,000 Pakistani troops being deployed to Saudi Arabia, to help secure the kingdom's borders alongside Saudi forces.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-deploys-jet-squadron-thousands-troops-saudi-arabia-during-iran-war-2026-05-18/

As soon as the ceasefire was signed in the 40-day war, Pakistan indicated it could potentially deploy 80,000 troops to Saudi Arabia. They have already deployed 1-2 squadrons of JF-17s.

Therefore, it wouldn't be surprising if Türkiye undertook a similar initiative. Yesterday, Hakan Fidan emphasized this precisely. If Saudi Arabia expects support from its partners in the event of an attack, that support will not go unreciprocated. If the same call comes from Türkiye and Pakistan, other countries will provide support.

You cannot create deterrence against your enemies without an agreement that will be implemented like Article 5 of NATO. At its core, this requires believing that the agreement will be activated when you need help; and your enemies must see this belief reflected in defense purchases/technology sharing, the establishment of permanent bases, and military exercises.

If this agreement remains only on paper, as you say, you cannot intimidate anyone (neither Iran nor Israel).

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2086465671701864528

Israeli Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli: The Mecca Alliance is a very dangerous and very troubling development. Saudi Arabia was essentially sitting on the fence.

It already had a defense agreement with Pakistan, but the moment it goes with the Turks—who are in a direct confrontation with us, one that could develop to dimensions that may have extremely serious consequences, both in the Mediterranean and on the Syrian front—this is a development that is very, very bad for us, for Israel.

It requires us to deepen our alliances with Greece and Cyprus, the United Arab Emirates, and Somaliland.


If you threaten Israel but fail to back it up on the ground, Israel will both dismantle the alliance you've built by sowing seeds of distrust through its agents and undermine your dominance by further arming your enemies and sabotaging your investments in Syria and Cyprus.

 

[Zafer]

So what can we deploy on fast track in Saudi Arabia;

• Kızılelma + various munitions
• Siper1 & Siper2
• Hisar family
• Sungur Manpads
• Radar systems
• Anti-drone systems
• More of defensive systems that we want to push to the field
• 3000 troops

 

[Pokemonte13]

So what can we deploy on fast track in Saudi Arabia;

• Kızılelma + various munitions
• Siper1 & Siper2
• Hisar family
• Sungur Manpads
• Radar systems
• 3000 troops
• 
  
• More of defensive systems that we want to push to the field

currently nothing of that as we either dont have enough or they are simply not ready yet.
The saudis face two threats one way attack drones and ballistic missiles with our capacity we could defend against the drones

 

[Zafer]

currently nothing of that as we either dont have enough or they are simply not ready yet.
The saudis face two threats one way attack drones and ballistic missiles with our capacity we could defend against the drones

We want our new systems to prove their worth, they can gain valuable experience in the field. More reasons to speed up development. They can do their first job earlier if we deploy them abroad first.