TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Gessler]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2086275761246265789

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2086276111873307083

There weren't any attacks on Saudi oil facilities for quite a few days prior. Probably not a coincidence that this is happening now.

Iran is using its Houthi proxies to test the new alliance.

 

[Fatman17]

https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/07/middleeast/saudi-arabia-turkey-pakistan-pact-intl

Saudi Arabia has drawn two of the Muslim world’s most formidable military powers into its defense as the Iran war moves closer to the kingdom

 

[Sanchez]

Last few days were interesting.

"Mecca Agreement", is not a military pact at this stage. It's clearly a framework agreement with specifics to be covered in the future. But, this shouldn't make one think that it's something ordinary. It is monumental in its own right. There will be many naysayers from multiple parties of course, from atlantic, Israel, Russia, Iran, subcontinent, but making these three countries to put out an agreement and asking others to join in is very important.

I actually agree with the politicians that it is neither anti Iran nor anti Israel. In an ideal world both Israel and Iran would also join the pact in the next decade, this probably won't happen.

Turkey won't send aircraft to Pakistan to fight India when India is fighting "terrorists" next time, nor will it send commandos to Yemen. Pakistan won't deploy fighters to Aegean, Saudi won't cut its hefty relationship with India. But in time we will probably see more TR/SA support to Pakistan both financially and in ISR, Turkey will probably send assets to Red Sea, Saudi will probably invest more heavily in Syria, help curtail Iran in Iraq and support development road and not IMEC. I wouldn't call IMEC dead just yet, but its importance is lowered considerably starting from this week.

 

[Fuzuli NL]

Last few days were interesting.

"Mecca Agreement", is not a military pact at this stage. It's clearly a framework agreement with specifics to be covered in the future. But, this shouldn't make one think that it's something ordinary. It is monumental in its own right. There will be many naysayers from multiple parties of course, from atlantic, Israel, Russia, Iran, subcontinent, but making these three countries to put out an agreement and asking others to join in is very important.

I actually agree with the politicians that it is neither anti Iran nor anti Israel. In an ideal world both Israel and Iran would also join the pact in the next decade, this probably won't happen.

Turkey won't send aircraft to Pakistan to fight India when India is fighting "terrorists" next time, nor will it send commandos to Yemen. Pakistan won't deploy fighters to Aegean, Saudi won't cut its hefty relationship with India. But in time we will probably see more TR/SA support to Pakistan both financially and in ISR, Turkey will probably send assets to Red Sea, Saudi will probably invest more heavily in Syria, help curtail Iran in Iraq and support development road and not IMEC. I wouldn't call IMEC dead just yet, but its importance is lowered considerably starting from this week.

Yeah. Well put!

 

[Ripley]

Iran is using its Houthi proxies to test the new alliance.

Seems so. But Iran is extremely experienced to know better than thAt at such an early stage of “alliance “, they might only get maybe de escalation statements.

 

[Fatman17]

Seems so. But Iran is extremely experienced to know better than thAt at such an early stage of “alliance “, they might only get maybe de escalation statements.

Any retaliation for the Houthis attacks by the KSA airforce would be enough IMHO. The alliance may not be invoked.

 

[Bogeyman]

Last few days were interesting.

"Mecca Agreement", is not a military pact at this stage. It's clearly a framework agreement with specifics to be covered in the future. But, this shouldn't make one think that it's something ordinary. It is monumental in its own right. There will be many naysayers from multiple parties of course, from atlantic, Israel, Russia, Iran, subcontinent, but making these three countries to put out an agreement and asking others to join in is very important.

I actually agree with the politicians that it is neither anti Iran nor anti Israel. In an ideal world both Israel and Iran would also join the pact in the next decade, this probably won't happen.

Turkey won't send aircraft to Pakistan to fight India when India is fighting "terrorists" next time, nor will it send commandos to Yemen. Pakistan won't deploy fighters to Aegean, Saudi won't cut its hefty relationship with India. But in time we will probably see more TR/SA support to Pakistan both financially and in ISR, Turkey will probably send assets to Red Sea, Saudi will probably invest more heavily in Syria, help curtail Iran in Iraq and support development road and not IMEC. I wouldn't call IMEC dead just yet, but its importance is lowered considerably starting from this week.

May 18, 2026

Pakistan has deployed 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter jets and an air defence system to Saudi Arabia under a mutual defence pact, ramping up military cooperation with ‌Riyadh even as Islamabad serves as the main mediator in the Iran war.

All five sources said the deployment includes around 8,000 troops, with a pledge to send more if needed, as well as a Chinese HQ-9 air defence system.

One of the government sources, who has seen the text of the confidential defence pact, said it provides for the possibility of up to 80,000 Pakistani troops being deployed to Saudi Arabia, to help secure the kingdom's borders alongside Saudi forces.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-deploys-jet-squadron-thousands-troops-saudi-arabia-during-iran-war-2026-05-18/

As soon as the ceasefire was signed in the 40-day war, Pakistan indicated it could potentially deploy 80,000 troops to Saudi Arabia. They have already deployed 1-2 squadrons of JF-17s.

Therefore, it wouldn't be surprising if Türkiye undertook a similar initiative. Yesterday, Hakan Fidan emphasized this precisely. If Saudi Arabia expects support from its partners in the event of an attack, that support will not go unreciprocated. If the same call comes from Türkiye and Pakistan, other countries will provide support.

You cannot create deterrence against your enemies without an agreement that will be implemented like Article 5 of NATO. At its core, this requires believing that the agreement will be activated when you need help; and your enemies must see this belief reflected in defense purchases/technology sharing, the establishment of permanent bases, and military exercises.

If this agreement remains only on paper, as you say, you cannot intimidate anyone (neither Iran nor Israel).

 

[Fatman17]

May 18, 2026

Pakistan has deployed 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter jets and an air defence system to Saudi Arabia under a mutual defence pact, ramping up military cooperation with ‌Riyadh even as Islamabad serves as the main mediator in the Iran war.

All five sources said the deployment includes around 8,000 troops, with a pledge to send more if needed, as well as a Chinese HQ-9 air defence system.

One of the government sources, who has seen the text of the confidential defence pact, said it provides for the possibility of up to 80,000 Pakistani troops being deployed to Saudi Arabia, to help secure the kingdom's borders alongside Saudi forces.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-deploys-jet-squadron-thousands-troops-saudi-arabia-during-iran-war-2026-05-18/

As soon as the ceasefire was signed in the 40-day war, Pakistan indicated it could potentially deploy 80,000 troops to Saudi Arabia. They have already deployed 1-2 squadrons of JF-17s.

Therefore, it wouldn't be surprising if Türkiye undertook a similar initiative. Yesterday, Hakan Fidan emphasized this precisely. If Saudi Arabia expects support from its partners in the event of an attack, that support will not go unreciprocated. If the same call comes from Türkiye and Pakistan, other countries will provide support.

You cannot create deterrence against your enemies without an agreement that will be implemented like Article 5 of NATO. At its core, this requires believing that the agreement will be activated when you need help; and your enemies must see this belief reflected in defense purchases/technology sharing, the establishment of permanent bases, and military exercises.

If this agreement remains only on paper, as you say, you cannot intimidate anyone (neither Iran nor Israel).

Pakistan deployed a major combat contingent—including up to 13,000 troops, a squadron of JF-17 fighter jets, drone units, and Chinese-made HQ-9 air defense systems—to Saudi Arabia's King Abdulaziz Air Base. This deployment operates under a bilateral mutual defense agreement signed by the two nations. [1, 2]

Deployment Overview

• • Troop Strength: Roughly 8,000 to 13,000 active military personnel deployed to forward positions in the kingdom's Eastern Province. [1, 2, 3]
  • Air Power & Hardware: Around 16 JF-17 fighter jets, support aircraft, drone squadrons, and HQ-9 air defense units operated entirely by Pakistani personnel. [1, 2]
  • Financing & Context: The mission is funded by Riyadh and shifts Pakistan's historic training and advisory presence into a direct combat-ready defense posture amid regional tensions. [1, 2, 3]
  • The Defense Pact: Stemming from a strategic mutual defense framework, the agreement treats an attack on one nation as an attack on both, with provisions allowing for even larger force deployments if required

 

[Bogeyman]

May 18, 2026

Pakistan has deployed 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter jets and an air defence system to Saudi Arabia under a mutual defence pact, ramping up military cooperation with ‌Riyadh even as Islamabad serves as the main mediator in the Iran war.

All five sources said the deployment includes around 8,000 troops, with a pledge to send more if needed, as well as a Chinese HQ-9 air defence system.

One of the government sources, who has seen the text of the confidential defence pact, said it provides for the possibility of up to 80,000 Pakistani troops being deployed to Saudi Arabia, to help secure the kingdom's borders alongside Saudi forces.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-deploys-jet-squadron-thousands-troops-saudi-arabia-during-iran-war-2026-05-18/

As soon as the ceasefire was signed in the 40-day war, Pakistan indicated it could potentially deploy 80,000 troops to Saudi Arabia. They have already deployed 1-2 squadrons of JF-17s.

Therefore, it wouldn't be surprising if Türkiye undertook a similar initiative. Yesterday, Hakan Fidan emphasized this precisely. If Saudi Arabia expects support from its partners in the event of an attack, that support will not go unreciprocated. If the same call comes from Türkiye and Pakistan, other countries will provide support.

You cannot create deterrence against your enemies without an agreement that will be implemented like Article 5 of NATO. At its core, this requires believing that the agreement will be activated when you need help; and your enemies must see this belief reflected in defense purchases/technology sharing, the establishment of permanent bases, and military exercises.

If this agreement remains only on paper, as you say, you cannot intimidate anyone (neither Iran nor Israel).

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2086465671701864528

Israeli Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli: The Mecca Alliance is a very dangerous and very troubling development. Saudi Arabia was essentially sitting on the fence.

It already had a defense agreement with Pakistan, but the moment it goes with the Turks—who are in a direct confrontation with us, one that could develop to dimensions that may have extremely serious consequences, both in the Mediterranean and on the Syrian front—this is a development that is very, very bad for us, for Israel.

It requires us to deepen our alliances with Greece and Cyprus, the United Arab Emirates, and Somaliland.


If you threaten Israel but fail to back it up on the ground, Israel will both dismantle the alliance you've built by sowing seeds of distrust through its agents and undermine your dominance by further arming your enemies and sabotaging your investments in Syria and Cyprus.

 

[Zafer]

So what can we deploy on fast track in Saudi Arabia;

• Kızılelma + various munitions
• Siper1 & Siper2
• Hisar family
• Sungur Manpads
• Radar systems
• Anti-drone systems
• More of defensive systems that we want to push to the field
• 3000 troops

 

[Pokemonte13]

So what can we deploy on fast track in Saudi Arabia;

• Kızılelma + various munitions
• Siper1 & Siper2
• Hisar family
• Sungur Manpads
• Radar systems
• 3000 troops
• 
  
• More of defensive systems that we want to push to the field

currently nothing of that as we either dont have enough or they are simply not ready yet.
The saudis face two threats one way attack drones and ballistic missiles with our capacity we could defend against the drones

 

[Zafer]

currently nothing of that as we either dont have enough or they are simply not ready yet.
The saudis face two threats one way attack drones and ballistic missiles with our capacity we could defend against the drones

We want our new systems to prove their worth, they can gain valuable experience in the field. More reasons to speed up development. They can do their first job earlier if we deploy them abroad first.

 

[Bogeyman]

People forget that full-scale wars are also very costly. So, to continue waging wars, you need to keep your economy afloat. While hot money may not provide a long-term guarantee, it can prevent a sudden collapse in the short term. Therefore, for poor countries like ours, the value of Saudi Arabia should not be underestimated.

 

[IC3M@N FX]

What Turkey can already offer Saudi Arabia in the coming weeks and months is the sharing of information on Turkey’s Radar and C4ISR capabilities for the early detection of attacks, so that counter-measures can be initiated – this alone makes a huge difference.
The next step would be to supply Saudi Arabia with enough TB2s to enable them to monitor and bomb Houthi-held areas round the clock, which would demoralise the Houthis.
The Houthis have only old Soviet-era Equipment & Iran Equipment, MANPADS, Ballistic Missiles and disposable Kamikaze Drones from Iran. The sheer number of them is the only problem Saudi Arabia is facing, but 50 to 60 TB2 drones equipped with EW/ECM Pods, Smart Bombs, Missiles and Cruise Missiles could exert massive pressure on Houthi territory.
The main aim is to keep them busy and force them onto the back foot so that they can’t launch attacks easily.

In my opinion, that would be the quickest way to help them.

 

[Zafer]

What Turkey can already offer Saudi Arabia in the coming weeks and months is the sharing of information on Turkey’s Radar and C4ISR capabilities for the early detection of attacks, so that counter-measures can be initiated – this alone makes a huge difference.
The next step would be to supply Saudi Arabia with enough TB2s to enable them to monitor and bomb Houthi-held areas round the clock, which would demoralise the Houthis.
The Houthis have only old Soviet-era Equipment & Iran Equipment, MANPADS, Ballistic Missiles and disposable Kamikaze Drones from Iran. The sheer number of them is the only problem Saudi Arabia is facing, but 50 to 60 TB2 drones equipped with EW/ECM Pods, Smart Bombs, Missiles and Cruise Missiles could exert massive pressure on Houthi territory.
The main aim is to keep them busy and force them onto the back foot so that they can’t launch attacks easily.

In my opinion, that would be the quickest way to help them.

We want to defend, we don't want to attack.

 

[I_Love_F16]

So what can we deploy on fast track in Saudi Arabia;

• Kızılelma + various munitions
• Siper1 & Siper2
• Hisar family
• Sungur Manpads
• Radar systems
• Anti-drone systems
• More of defensive systems that we want to push to the field
• 3000 troops

We don’t even have those systems in enough quantity on our soil, and yet you want to deploy those abroad. What’s next ?

 

[Zafer]

We don’t even have those systems in enough quantity on our soil, and yet you want to deploy those abroad. What’s next ?

We want to make the best use of them, until we actaully need them for ourselves. We are already making more and more of them. We have attack capabilities as a deterrant, we don't rely on defence alone. Remember even Greece lends their Patriots to SA. We are in NATO and all, if you want to be reminded. We needed more defence when Syria was a big mess, which is not the case now.

 

[Pokemonte13]

We want to make the best use of them, until we actaully need them for ourselves. We are already making more and more of them. We have attack capabilities as a deterrant, we don't rely on defence alone. Remember even Greece lends their Patriots to SA. We are in NATO and all, if you want to be reminded. We needed more defence when Syria was a big mess, which is not the case now.

there is one or two systems in sa and greece doesn't border iran and we have compared to them less air defence.

 

[IC3M@N FX]

We want to defend, we don't want to attack.

No one is claiming that we are attacking – we are supplying Saudi Arabia with TB2 Drones and Ammunition, as well as C4ISR data for defence purposes; moreover, the Houthis, as an organisation, are officially stateless; they are, after all, a militia, and therefore a proxy force.
Iran would have to officially admit that the Houthis are officially a branch of the Iranian armed forces, which it does not do officially; moreover, whoever launches an attack has, in any case, forfeited any right to protest if they themselves are attacked.

 

[Zafer]

No one is claiming that we are attacking – we are supplying Saudi Arabia with TB2 Drones and Ammunition, as well as C4ISR data for defence purposes; moreover, the Houthis, as an organisation, are officially stateless; they are, after all, a militia, and therefore a proxy force.
Iran would have to officially admit that the Houthis are officially a branch of the Iranian armed forces, which it does not do officially; moreover, whoever launches an attack has, in any case, forfeited any right to protest if they themselves are attacked.

We only want to defend the SA we don't want to cause damage.