Okay this is a hypothetical thread of "what if" that I think would be instructive to those not too well acquainted with the dynamic that exists within the Pakistan and India conflicts. I open this because many people have a habit of going for sound bites that hide or even distort the reality. Here I will present some facts that can be checked by Indian members and I would correct them if they can prove otherwise. This hypothetical also will expose the delicate strategic equation that Pakistan has faced for last 70 years.
The first thing that would surprise any observer is why has India not been the attacker and not thrown Pakistan out of the Kashmir portion it illegally occupied [from Indian POV] and thus settled the issue once and for all. This is made all the more clear if you consider that India is the vastly larger country. The contest is akin to the elephant and the mouse with both holding a shred of cheese. But the bizzare thing being that the tiny mouse is the one that has eyes on the shred left in hands of the elephant and now and then actually attacks the elephant in a desperate attempt to grab the cheese in elephants hand. The elephant instead of taking offensive posture and knocking the mouse out takes defensive posture.
If one looks at conflict between states matters either -
May I suggest that over 70 years of the Kashmir conflict No.3 applies. Nothing substantive has changed with LOC being almost stalemate. This of course is the reason why even after 3/4 of a century the conflict continues. It has NOT been resolved by war or negotiation.
So let us look at what could have been a solution. India launches a concerted military offensive against Pakistan to either destroy it or force it by use of arms a unconditional defeat. Such a defeat then would entail a peace treaty where Pakistan would have to give up on Kashmir and then subjected to other conditions like Germany suffered. Huge areas of German speakers in Pomerania were lost to Poland after WW2. Modern Germany has never made any attempt to reclaim it as the treaty that brought WW2 to end included Germany losing these regions.
The other possibility is India launches massive attack intended to capture vital territory in Pakistan that can then can be used to force Pakistan to pawn Pakistan occupied Kashmir. A good example to consider is how Israel used captured Sinai to dictate conditions for peace with Egypt. For this to work the territory captured must be of such significant value that Pakistan would have no choice but 'return' occupied Kashmir to India bringing this 70 year conflict to a end. Noted that it of desert or scrub will not do it.
So looking at it from Indian POV given it's vastly superior resources of which not a day goes by without latter bragging about is there and has there been any opportunity of inflicting a catastrophic defeat on Pakistan and thus bringing this conflict to a end?
The most obvious is a Indian attack given it's vastly larger army on the LOC and taking Pak occupied Kashmir [POK] and thus settling the issue. However this is not as easy as it sounds. Most of POK is hilly or mountainous where large scale offensives are difficult to execute. The terrain suits the defender. There is not much scope for use of armour or mechanized forces.
However. Yes however, a big plum is sat right within arm reach of the much vaunted Indian military. A plum so juicy that Pakistan would give up Pak occupied Kashmir without even a debate. What is that juicy plum? Yes it is second largest city and Pakistan's cultural capital called Lahore. Lahore is analogous to Istanbul for Pakistan. It is a ancient city with terrific historical heritage.
The city is right next door to the Indian border. The terrain is the Punjab plains which is flat alluvial plane ideal for mass armoued formations. In fact it is ideal tank country and fit for mobile warfare. Just a line separates Lahore from India. In fact Lahore suburbs are just six miles from Indian border. Lahore Ring Road and Lahore Airport are about 7 miles from Indian border with just flat farms between the city and Indian border. I repeat here if ever Lahore had or did fall the Pakistani state would willingly give away Pak occupied Kashmir with a halwa and a gift card.
This is map of Lahore that gives you context.
This below is Google Earth capture of Lahore cities eastern suburbs including the cities international airport with Indian border just 6 miles behind. As can be seen the cities suburbs are just six miles distant with rolling farms to the Indian border. Six miles.
So think about this. Second largest country on earth. Lahore the premier city of Pakistan. Sat there with just six miles of grass separating it. For one of the largest militaries in the world 6 miles of flat fields of grass with no physical geographic impediment in the way should be a doddle. Say three formations with one in the centre launching a armoured force with target being Lahore Airport 7 miles away. Another armoured formation on the northern flank and a similiar force on the soothern flank. The centre to capture Lahore Airport and grind any Pakistani resistance. The north and south pincers then slice off Lahore from rest of Pakistan. Then with city captured ceasefire is declared. Then as condition of a peace treaty that returns Lahore, Pakistan is forced to give up Pak Occupied Kashmir. End of the Pak/India rivalry. Pakistan is vanquished like Germany was. We have peace in South Asia.
There would always be the choice for Indian Army to drive north west 150 miles along the M1 motorway and grab Islamabad but .......
Ps. Do note that this hypothetical was available over the last 70 years. Lahore has sat a stones throw for seven decades from the Indian border and this has always been Pakistan's soft underbelly. A strategic nightmare for military planners to defend. Indeed in 1965 India did launch massive armoured attack on the axis as seen on the maps above. The Indian general even bragged he was going to have his afternoon tea in Lahore Officers Gymkhana. Alas he never got his chai although we served it to his fellow country man the Indian pilot in 2019.
The border adjacent to Lahore. Just flat wheat fields.
- Straight off let me make this crystal clear. Pakistan is and has always been the underdog. India is vastly larger by a factor of almost 1.4 billion people compared to 220 million which is just shy of 7:1 disparity.
- at heart of the issue between both countries is Kashmir and everything else has always been a sideshow. Pakistan believes by virtue of it being a adjacent Muslim dominant province which historically has had intercourse with coterminous Pakistan region it ought to have gone with the federation of Pakistan in 1947.
- the Indian view is that the Hindu ruler of the erstwhile state of Jammu & Kashmir bequeathed it to India via the Instrument of Accession which was the legal document signed between the ruler of J &K and India.
- The Instrument of Accession is the legal basis India uses as it's hold on Kashmir. The important thing to note here is that the said Instrument of Accession gave India all, repeat all of Kashmir.
- from Indian POV Pakistan illegaly occupied a portion of Kashmir today called Azad Kashmir or AK by Pakistan but Pakistan occupied Kashmir or POK by India.
- after 70 years of wars the line of control remains almost where it was 70 years ago.
- despite being the underdog Pakistan has been the one that has launched attempts to evict India from it's portion.
The first thing that would surprise any observer is why has India not been the attacker and not thrown Pakistan out of the Kashmir portion it illegally occupied [from Indian POV] and thus settled the issue once and for all. This is made all the more clear if you consider that India is the vastly larger country. The contest is akin to the elephant and the mouse with both holding a shred of cheese. But the bizzare thing being that the tiny mouse is the one that has eyes on the shred left in hands of the elephant and now and then actually attacks the elephant in a desperate attempt to grab the cheese in elephants hand. The elephant instead of taking offensive posture and knocking the mouse out takes defensive posture.
If one looks at conflict between states matters either -
- war and total unconditional defeat of one side like Germany in WW2
- war and conditional defeat of one side which loses the contested territory like AZ and Ngorna Karabak.
- war but no major change take place and the contested territory is subject of stalemate
May I suggest that over 70 years of the Kashmir conflict No.3 applies. Nothing substantive has changed with LOC being almost stalemate. This of course is the reason why even after 3/4 of a century the conflict continues. It has NOT been resolved by war or negotiation.
So let us look at what could have been a solution. India launches a concerted military offensive against Pakistan to either destroy it or force it by use of arms a unconditional defeat. Such a defeat then would entail a peace treaty where Pakistan would have to give up on Kashmir and then subjected to other conditions like Germany suffered. Huge areas of German speakers in Pomerania were lost to Poland after WW2. Modern Germany has never made any attempt to reclaim it as the treaty that brought WW2 to end included Germany losing these regions.
The other possibility is India launches massive attack intended to capture vital territory in Pakistan that can then can be used to force Pakistan to pawn Pakistan occupied Kashmir. A good example to consider is how Israel used captured Sinai to dictate conditions for peace with Egypt. For this to work the territory captured must be of such significant value that Pakistan would have no choice but 'return' occupied Kashmir to India bringing this 70 year conflict to a end. Noted that it of desert or scrub will not do it.
So looking at it from Indian POV given it's vastly superior resources of which not a day goes by without latter bragging about is there and has there been any opportunity of inflicting a catastrophic defeat on Pakistan and thus bringing this conflict to a end?
The most obvious is a Indian attack given it's vastly larger army on the LOC and taking Pak occupied Kashmir [POK] and thus settling the issue. However this is not as easy as it sounds. Most of POK is hilly or mountainous where large scale offensives are difficult to execute. The terrain suits the defender. There is not much scope for use of armour or mechanized forces.
However. Yes however, a big plum is sat right within arm reach of the much vaunted Indian military. A plum so juicy that Pakistan would give up Pak occupied Kashmir without even a debate. What is that juicy plum? Yes it is second largest city and Pakistan's cultural capital called Lahore. Lahore is analogous to Istanbul for Pakistan. It is a ancient city with terrific historical heritage.
The city is right next door to the Indian border. The terrain is the Punjab plains which is flat alluvial plane ideal for mass armoued formations. In fact it is ideal tank country and fit for mobile warfare. Just a line separates Lahore from India. In fact Lahore suburbs are just six miles from Indian border. Lahore Ring Road and Lahore Airport are about 7 miles from Indian border with just flat farms between the city and Indian border. I repeat here if ever Lahore had or did fall the Pakistani state would willingly give away Pak occupied Kashmir with a halwa and a gift card.
This is map of Lahore that gives you context.
This below is Google Earth capture of Lahore cities eastern suburbs including the cities international airport with Indian border just 6 miles behind. As can be seen the cities suburbs are just six miles distant with rolling farms to the Indian border. Six miles.
So think about this. Second largest country on earth. Lahore the premier city of Pakistan. Sat there with just six miles of grass separating it. For one of the largest militaries in the world 6 miles of flat fields of grass with no physical geographic impediment in the way should be a doddle. Say three formations with one in the centre launching a armoured force with target being Lahore Airport 7 miles away. Another armoured formation on the northern flank and a similiar force on the soothern flank. The centre to capture Lahore Airport and grind any Pakistani resistance. The north and south pincers then slice off Lahore from rest of Pakistan. Then with city captured ceasefire is declared. Then as condition of a peace treaty that returns Lahore, Pakistan is forced to give up Pak Occupied Kashmir. End of the Pak/India rivalry. Pakistan is vanquished like Germany was. We have peace in South Asia.
There would always be the choice for Indian Army to drive north west 150 miles along the M1 motorway and grab Islamabad but .......
Ps. Do note that this hypothetical was available over the last 70 years. Lahore has sat a stones throw for seven decades from the Indian border and this has always been Pakistan's soft underbelly. A strategic nightmare for military planners to defend. Indeed in 1965 India did launch massive armoured attack on the axis as seen on the maps above. The Indian general even bragged he was going to have his afternoon tea in Lahore Officers Gymkhana. Alas he never got his chai although we served it to his fellow country man the Indian pilot in 2019.
The border adjacent to Lahore. Just flat wheat fields.