Recent content by Woland

There are rumors that Fitzpatrick (one of the most pro-Ukrainian Republicans) voted no on the Big Beautiful Bill in part because of Ukraine aid, but there's a bit more to it than that. Fitzpatrick is in a very contested district and the Big Beautiful Bill is quite unpopular. Voting no on it will...

Israel or not, Trump is risk-averse, isolationist, and so far the signals point to him not wanting to commit to military action. The main scenario I see in which he joins is if he is convinced that the war is already practically won and he decides to share in the glory of being a victor. But I...

Trump Will Decide on Iran Attack ‘Within the Next Two Weeks,’ White House Says It's his favorite unit of time, two weeks: short enough for him to be able to claim he's considering it, long enough for media cycle to end and people to move on. He uses it when he's not going to do anything (recall...

I think so, yes. Air defense remains the top request Ukrainians make of allies, and IRIS-T is one of the better options from Europe that Ukraine operates. The other main requested ones are SAMP/T (France/Italy) and NASAMS (Norway).

The most important system is still Patriots. Patriot is a more advanced, longer range and can intercept ballistic missiles. IRIS-T has difficulty with ballistic missiles, though allegedly they're working on upgrades to enable IRIS-T to be able to shoot down ballistic missiles.

Germany is allocating an additional €1.9 billion in military aid to the €7 billion previously budgeted. This was announced by Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who arrived in Kyiv today. In total, Germany's military aid in 2025 will amount to €8.9 billion, setting a new record for Berlin. It's...

This is fantastic news for Ukraine. Had Simion won it would have left Poland as the only country with a pro-Ukrainian government bordering Ukraine. Any Polish farmer/trucker border blockades (which happened multiple times, including one right now) would have a significant impact and considerable...

A while ago Australia had promised to deliver 49 M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, the same kind that the US had previously delivered. Earlier this year it was reported that there were issues with their delivery, with the reasoning allegedly being that the US was not authorizing the transfer. It...

Since Putin didn't show up and sent a low-level delegation, today Zelensky announced that Umerov (Ukraine's Defense Minister) will be the one leading negotiations with the Russian delegation, and that Umerov only has the mandate to negotiate a ceasefire, nothing more. This despite the fact that...

Putin is not coming to negotiations in Turkey. He's sending a low-ranked delegation headed by Vladimir Medinsky. I discussed the implications of this here. Sending a low-ranked delegation is also a slap in the face of Trump, who is sending a high-level delegation headed by the Secretary of...

Let's recap what happened in the last couple days. Last week, the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, Poland and Ukraine gathered in Kyiv and agreed to demand an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting May 12 (yesterday). If there is no ceasefire, they would increase sanctions on Russia and...

Today in his interview with NBC, Trump exhibited an interesting change in rhetoric: KRISTEN WELKER: So you think you’re close to a deal? What will Russia have to give up? Because Ukraine, there’s been discussions they will have to give up some of the land that Russia’s illegally claimed. PRES...

The minerals deal is completely fine. It has become significantly more favorable for Ukraine. Below is an outline summarizing the agreement, as well as associated risks: Summary: 1. Creation of the American-Ukrainian Investment Fund • Form: The Fund is created as a joint partnership of the two...

The Trump administration is not as friendly to Ukraine as the Biden admin, what we primarily want from the Trump administration is to stop hindering Ukraine. There are still around $20 billion worth of USAI (weaponry manufacturing placed with the US defense industry) from the Biden...

Not at all, Trump now has an agreement he can show to his voters as proof he's a brilliant negotiator who is getting their money back, while unblocking what remains of Ukraine aid from the Biden administration, and letting the Department of Defense and State Department continue working with...