TR TF-X KAAN Fighter Jet

Zafer · May 1, 2024

Mis_TR_Like said:
well yes I mean in comparison to current inventories

We need to double down on domestic engine efforts. Once it's ready nothing can stop us from making 1000 Kaans. The world will never be the same after that.

But I wonder at what point would we stop and focus on 6th gen... and if all the speculation of Kaan being a platform which will bridge generations is true. Kaan is certainly better equipped to make the leap than other 5th gen fighters. With the dynamism of the Turkish defence industry, we could see it gradually transform in the years after its introduction. If this is ends up being the case, we could see a ludicrous amount of Kaans. For now I'm happy with 250 Realistically it's more than enough for our regional ambitions.

Similar to what is happening in mobile phone networks technology a strategy involving Long Term Evolution can be adopted where you upgrade the platform in a continuous manner. In this case making high numbers of a single incarnation of a plane is not suitable and you want to have a mix of upgraded planes along the way. So after we have several dozen planes in our arsenal we can look to involve foreign buyers to keep production going.

IC3M@N FX · May 1, 2024

The numbers being thrown around lol, we'll be lucky if we end up with 120-150 planes. Because 90-120 Million USD per plane is anything, but certainly not cheap.
Even if most of the money stays at home and circulates in our own ecosystem, it's still a big number.
We are talking about USD 12-14 billion, not including maintenance, spare parts and ammunition.

boredaf · May 1, 2024

Sanchez said:
It looks more possible that Altınay will produce the Sadak series and not Aselsan.

Sadak is literally Aselsan's product, why would anyone else produce them?

IC3M@N FX said:
The numbers being thrown around lol, we'll be lucky if we end up with 120-150 planes. Because 90-120 Million USD per plane is anything, but certainly not cheap.
Even if most of the money stays at home and circulates in our own ecosystem, it's still a big number.
We are talking about USD 12-14 billion, not including maintenance, spare parts and ammunition.

In addition to the cost, good luck finding enough people to not just fly but also service those planes. Not to mention all the material needed to build everything necessary, from electronics to planes to spare parts to hangars.

I swear some people base their entire concept of military on computer games. 1000 Kaans, 1000 Altays etc, it is completely ridiculous and it keeps happening over and over again.

Zafer · May 1, 2024

Altınay is Aselsan

Mis_TR_Like · May 1, 2024

IC3M@N FX said:
The numbers being thrown around lol, we'll be lucky if we end up with 120-150 planes. Because 90-120 Million USD per plane is anything, but certainly not cheap.
Even if most of the money stays at home and circulates in our own ecosystem, it's still a big number.
We are talking about USD 12-14 billion, not including maintenance, spare parts and ammunition.

If I remember correctly, TSK had 250 in mind from the beginning. 100 F-35s were supposed to be primarily for ground attack (replacing F4s), meanwhile, TFX was supposed to be a replacement for F-16s, but with more of an emphasis on air superiority. Now, Kaan will be our only manned combat aircraft long term (I'm not counting Hürjet). Even if we get 40 new F-16s, I don't see 250 Kaan as being unrealistic...

From an economic point of view, let's not forget that this project will be funded by OTS, even if there's currently no concrete information about this.

If we are serious about pursuing a project as large as our full sized carrier program, then I sure hope we got what it takes to produce, fly and maintain at least 250 of our own fighters.

Zafer · May 1, 2024

Mis_TR_Like said:
If I remember correctly, TSK had 250 in mind from the beginning. 100 F-35s were supposed to be primarily for ground attack (replacing F4s), meanwhile, TFX was supposed to be a replacement for F-16s, but with more of an emphasis on air superiority. Now, Kaan will be our only manned combat aircraft long term (I'm not counting Hürjet). Even if we get 40 new F-16s, I don't see 250 Kaan as being unrealistic...

From an economic point of view, let's not forget that this project will be funded by OTS, even if there's currently no concrete information about this.

If we are serious about pursuing a project as large as our full sized carrier program, then I sure hope we got what it takes to produce, fly and maintain at least 250 of our own fighters.

In the timeframe of a decade we can expect to be in financial surplus rather than deficit so we can have respectable numbers of anything starting in 5 years from now.

Yasar_TR · May 1, 2024

To add to @boredaf ’s post; it has to be remembered that these are 5th generation planes. They are expensive to keep operational with a much lower operability percentage than 4th generation planes.

If we look at hourly flight cost alone of these :

A-10 Thunderbolt: $22,531/hour
F-16 Fighting Falcon: $26,927/hour
F/A-18E/F Super Hornet: $30,404/hour
F-22 Raptor: $85,325/hour
F-35 Joint Strike Fighter: $41,986/hour

These are astronomically high figures for 5th generation planes. US envisages, with today’s money, before the end of their life cycle the f35 fleet alone will cost them in excess of 1.8 trillion dollars. That is for 1763 planes they have pencilled in to be purchased at the beginning of the project and has not been changed to date. That is 1.02 billion dollars a plane.
F35 is a 78million dollar a piece plane to buy for the consortium members. Our KAAN is going to be well above 100 million a piece. It is actually placed in between a f35 and a F22. So the operational costs of these planes are actually prohibitively high.

If these stealth features really work as expected, then they are going to be for limited use only. I can’t see airforces depending on just the internal payload when it is so costly to fly these planes. If you are going to use them mainly in beast mode and they are no longer stealthy, then it is not logical to spend so much more for a plane with such lower operational time than a 4th or 4+ generation fighter.

Our best bet would be to have at least 200 to 250 4+ generation fighters to complement the 100 or so Stealthy KAANs. Or alternatively , if we can manufacture and maintain KAANs cheaply in 4+ generation mode (which is a tall order for a twin engined plane), then make up the numbers with KAAN 4+ gen planes.
Where we are geographically and who our adversaries are around us dictates how many planes we should have. No one country, with the exception of US and China can afford to have the right numbers of planes to confront adversaries on their own. That is why we and the rest of the Western European countries are in NATO.

It Costs Tens of Thousands of Dollars Per Hour to Fly These U.S. Military Aircraft

And you thought car expenses were bad.

www.popularmechanics.com

Congress Boosts Air Force 2024 Budget With More F-35s

Congress added three F-35s the Air Force didn't request in the final version of the fiscal 2024 appropriations bill.

www.airandspaceforces.com

IC3M@N FX · May 1, 2024

Mis_TR_Like said:
If I remember correctly, TSK had 250 in mind from the beginning. 100 F-35s were supposed to be primarily for ground attack (replacing F4s), meanwhile, TFX was supposed to be a replacement for F-16s, but with more of an emphasis on air superiority. Now, Kaan will be our only manned combat aircraft long term (I'm not counting Hürjet). Even if we get 40 new F-16s, I don't see 250 Kaan as being unrealistic...

From an economic point of view, let's not forget that this project will be funded by OTS, even if there's currently no concrete information about this.

If we are serious about pursuing a project as large as our full sized carrier program, then I sure hope we got what it takes to produce, fly and maintain at least 250 of our own fighters.

Experience has shown that the initial figures requested for the procurement of a weapons platform are never correct, regardless of the country, and are usually corrected downwards in each country.
The reasons would always be the same: high production costs coupled with high operating costs, so why should it be any different for us.
KAAN is not a bread & butter platform according to the motto "One Fits All," it is as you said an air superiority fighter thus also specialized in a certain area.
Turkey would do well to start a new project after the completion of the project and after the start of the production phase of the TAI KAAN to bring out a cheap alternative that is more like the F16/F-35.
A smaller stealth fighter jet preferably single jet with delta canard design based on TAI KAAN with 50-60 million USD cost per aircraft, which could then be produced on a large scale e.g. 400-500 and replace the F-16 because they will be the real workhorses of the armed forces with much lower maintenance and operating costs.

Quasar · May 1, 2024

if we are not planing to use our F 16s and remaning F 4s for eternity (Özgür and F 16V are stop gap solution), in the long run at least 250 KAANs eventually seems logical and more like a necessity even to keep the current organizational structure of our Air force... in the long run is the key words here.... No need for a offical statement to know that World is round.

IC3M@N FX · May 1, 2024

Again, you can't supply your entire fleet with only very expensive air superiority fighters - that costs a lot of money, otherwise the USA wouldn't have cut the F-22 Raptor. They brought out the F-35 precisely because it is a platform that is much cheaper to maintain with the same technology base as the F-22, in principle an F-22 Light.
Turkey also needs something like this in its fleet and it would still be very competitive in this case 120-150 TAI KAANs 300-500 TAI KAAN XS (Singlejet Delta Canard) 200 F-16 Block 70/Özgür
100+ Hürjet and 600- 800+ drones of different classes.

Zafer · May 1, 2024

The future of aviation offers a lot of variety so we need to make fleet of a sensible combination of all kinds of fliers and not just rely on a few options. Instead of making lots of the same design we should test fliers through time and see which ones survive the requirements of the time before we make many more of them. I would like to have like 5 times the impactfulness of what we have now in 10 years time.

Anmdt · May 1, 2024

Sanchez said:
Anything we can read up on that? Altınay literally shows images of Sadak with Aselsan wording removed on its website. It looks more possible that Altınay will produce the Sadak series and not Aselsan.

Altınay was a subcontractor to Aselsan on SADAK, Aselsan has set the requirements and provided the design limits, Altınay produced the pneumatic rack to withstand. This is my argument, however knowing Aselsan-Altınay ties i am assured this is valid.

Sanchez · May 1, 2024

boredaf said:
Sadak is literally Aselsan's product, why would anyone else produce them?

Aselsan is a state company and if SSB says that’s the way forward that will be the way forward. Aselsan may also want to decouple from some works in a bid to cut costs and manhours.

What we know is that Altınay have photos of Sadak 4T on its website now with the Aselsan labeling removed. It’s either a fuckup from IT guys at Altınay or it’s a deal in progress between two companies.

Anmdt said:
Altınay was a subcontractor to Aselsan on SADAK, Aselsan has set the requirements and provided the design limits, Altınay produced the pneumatic rack to withstand. This is my argument, however knowing Aselsan-Altınay ties i am assured this is valid.

Thank you. Then we can say Sadak series of racks are now to be built by Altınay. Then another question arises whether Kaan’s IWB racks will be made by Altınay and be different than Sadak series.

boredaf · May 1, 2024

Yasar_TR said:
To add to @boredaf ’s post; it has to be remembered that these are 5th generation planes. They are expensive to keep operational with a much lower operability percentage than 4th generation planes.

If we look at hourly flight cost alone of these :

A-10 Thunderbolt: $22,531/hour

F-16 Fighting Falcon: $26,927/hour

F/A-18E/F Super Hornet: $30,404/hour

F-22 Raptor: $85,325/hour

F-35 Joint Strike Fighter: $41,986/hour

These are astronomically high figures for 5th generation planes. US envisages, with today’s money, before the end of their life cycle the f35 fleet alone will cost them in excess of 1.8 trillion dollars. That is for 1763 planes they have pencilled in to be purchased at the beginning of the project and has not been changed to date. That is 1.02 billion dollars a plane.
F35 is a 78million dollar a piece plane to buy for the consortium members. Our KAAN is going to be well above 100 million a piece. It is actually placed in between a f35 and a F22. So the operational costs of these planes are actually prohibitively high.

If these stealth features really work as expected, then they are going to be for limited use only. I can’t see airforces depending on just the internal payload when it is so costly to fly these planes. If you are going to use them mainly in beast mode and they are no longer stealthy, then it is not logical to spend so much more for a plane with such lower operational time than a 4th or 4+ generation fighter.

Our best bet would be to have at least 200 to 250 4+ generation fighters to complement the 100 or so Stealthy KAANs. Or alternatively , if we can manufacture and maintain KAANs cheaply in 4+ generation mode (which is a tall order for a twin engined plane), then make up the numbers with KAAN 4+ gen planes.
Where we are geographically and who our adversaries are around us dictates how many planes we should have. No one country, with the exception of US and China can afford to have the right numbers of planes to confront adversaries on their own. That is why we and the rest of the Western European countries are in NATO.

It Costs Tens of Thousands of Dollars Per Hour to Fly These U.S. Military Aircraft

And you thought car expenses were bad.

www.popularmechanics.com

Congress Boosts Air Force 2024 Budget With More F-35s

Congress added three F-35s the Air Force didn't request in the final version of the fiscal 2024 appropriations bill.

www.airandspaceforces.com

On top of this, every nation with a large air force is *still* buying 4.5th gen jets and/or upgrading their already existing fleets and the reason for that is the costs mention here. 5th gen planes are expensive to produce, maintain and fly, because of that, even nations that have easy access to these jets are not switching completely to 5th gen; unless they are small country with a small air force that expect others to do the heavy lifting in case of a war.

boredaf · May 1, 2024

Sanchez said:
What we know is that Altınay have photos of Sadak 4T on its website now with the Aselsan labeling removed. It’s either a fuckup from IT guys at Altınay or it’s a deal in progress between two companies.

And Aselsan has them on their website with their own label on. We just have to wait and see.

Something went wrong - ASELSAN

Something went wrong

www.aselsan.com

BaburKhan · May 1, 2024

No Name said:
250 Kaan jets will cost Turkey $25 billion, assuming the estimated price of $100 million a jet doesn't change.

Considering the price tag of a single KAAN fighter, I wonder if we will ever see any future derivative of KAAN, sort of like how the FB-22 Strike Raptor was meant to be a derivative of F-22 or how Rafale B is a derivative of A.

It can use the primary Design of Kaan, but for example an enlarged Delta Wing like the FB-22, this allow to carry more Fuel and Weapons. Another Design which looks more promising is the FB-23, which is based on the F-23 Stealth Fighter Design. The FB-23 have a greater internal Weapon Bay.

Such medium Range Bombers can carry more Payload over a longer Range. With these Bombers central Asia could be covered and north Africa beyond the Straight of Gibraltar.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758242196472439027

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1773470042736177431

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1784627943945498711

Quasar · May 1, 2024

first block(s) of KAAN will be not 5 gen from get go! so we will have plenty of 4,5 ++ KAANs .... anyway I am stating again 250 sounds a reasoable number

boredaf · May 1, 2024

Quasar said:
I am stating again 250 sounds a reasoable number

If we actually get 250 Kaan that would make us the strongest air force in our region, especially since we are definitely going to add drones like KE and Anka-3 to that number. I expect us to get less planes than that, somewhere between 150-200, but 250 while hard and expensive, can also be doable.

Quasar · May 1, 2024

boredaf said:
If we actually get 250 Kaan that would make us the strongest air force in our region, especially since we are definitely going to add drones like KE and Anka-3 to that number. I expect us to get less planes than that, somewhere between 150-200, but 250 while hard and expensive, can also be doable.

highly speculative I know but it is hard for me to be convinced that our ambitious navy will be satisfied with any variant of Hürjet for the Future

boredaf · May 1, 2024

Quasar said:
highly speculative I know but it is hard for me to be convinced that our ambitious navy will be satisfied with any variant of Hürjet for the Future

Oh, if we are also counting any Navy acquisition in that 250 as well I'd say there is a good chance we would hit 250. Although I still think a smaller, 1 engine version of Kaan (*after* the original started proper production) would be a much better solution than Kaan itself for navy.

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