Live Conflict Iran-Israel Conflict (2025)

TheInsider

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For Iran, it is either unconditional surrender or carpet bombing with B-52s.

BTW, Israel is hitting defenses in Kirmanshah really hard; that city has a big Kurdish population. IMHO, Israel wants to trigger something.
 

RMZN

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For Iran, it is either unconditional surrender or carpet bombing with B-52s.

BTW, Israel is hitting defenses in Kirmanshah really hard; that city has a big Kurdish population. IMHO, Israel wants to trigger something.
They will get carpet bombed either way. Unless they magically have a nuke as a trump card they are finished. Israel will 100% be seeking to trigger a civil-war/ infighting for power by eliminating all remaining leadership, I truly pray Turkey doesnt remain inactive again, like during Assads fall.
 

Rooxbar

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Worth reposting here at this 'opportune' moment (posts from August and November of 2023).
Mazloum Abdi has told U.S. reps that they should not count on him if they expand the war to confront Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq. If he's telling the truth (I doubt it), he must not be long for this world as the head of Syrian PKK, or may be the plan is to keep that organization safe and away from Iran's targeting, in case of clashes. Well they have bases inside Iran anyway, if Iran doesn't see them as a threat to itself, they are very happy to use it as a trump card against Turkey. It's very hard to develop a plan in juggling all of these possibilities.


My thesis that U.S. is preparing for a full-on war with Iran (despite most analysts thinking the opposite as they see the dem admin actually accommodating Iran based on superficial evidence), can be partially refuted if they stop Israel from making this a long-term thing and don't extend and elevate the level of engagement with Houthis, and militias in Syria (I say "partially", because if they don't do it now, they can always come back and do it later; so to fully refute it we have to see concrete steps by U.S. for rapprochement through JCPOA. As what I see is the exact opposite in U.S. abandoning JCPOA, I count this as an evidence for my hypothesis, based on the fact that a nuclear Iran will not be tolerated {since the risks of spillage with a nuclear Iran is real and unsustainable, unlike NK}, and on the other hand without JCPOA Iran will have no choice but to develop nuclear weapon). Since for U.S. and Israel to safely engage with Iran they have to clear its proxies first, this means moves against this goal will weaken my hypothesis, and naturally moves in keeping with this goal will strengthen it.

U.S. state department has opted to manifest a picture of what opinion on this matter (extending the war & carte blanche for Israel to continue) inside its halls are, as discordant and hesitant. But you never know if that's propaganda or real leaks. But sometimes the discord is real until an order to the contrary comes from some place else. I'd love to know where that some place is which can stifle any kind of discord so fast. Like how they have been avoiding the word "ceasefire" like the plague in a very wide geography. Would love to see how that's coordinated and where the actual decisions are made, or if it's only signalled from a central committee and everybody else recognizes the signals and conforms organically.

Although I have my premonitions that long-term planning in international affairs is neither practical nor sustainable, hence not believing in the efficacy or, in any chance, the seriousness and unity of will with which the "Great middle-east project" is being pursued, still the current situation in northern Iraq and Syria and the way the west has planned and conducted the invasion of Gaza and the long-term encroachment on the West Bank, bears some resemblance to the project being implemented, albeit in a haphazard and unsatisfactorily choppy manner. Given that reality, one must ask "what would have been the optimal response by Turkey to the incitement of a civil war in Syria?" if the goal of establishment of a part of "the great Kurdistan" could be anticipated? Could we block it?

We can repeat the same question for Iran. Iran is even more of a powederkeg than Syria. Its disintegration in the coming decade (or two, give or take) is, in my view, inevitable; which translates to "the advancement of the "great middle-east project in its next phase, aka Iran, is inevitable". Another Kurdish front will be formed. What is the optimal response to this inevitability? When this disintegration happens, the alternatives on the ground are several kurdish militias, who already have their eyes on Iran's western border with Turkey. Iran's internal pan-Iranists have helped them change the demographics of the region (which is called "Western Azerbaijan") from 90% Turkish thirty years ago, to 60% kurdish now; they have achieved this within the confines of the "Islamic" republic, that is presumably devoid of those Pan-Iranist sentiments. You have to have plan b about when shit hits the fan and the kurdish militias, attack and displace Azerbaijanis from South Azerbaijan. You have to have plans to be able to influence this process, even if you think it will not happen.

Your repsonse can be the passive, "no we don't want another Kurdish front to the east; we are opposed to disintegration of Iran, we support Iran's territorial integrity". I don't need to remind you of AKP's early policy towards disintegration of Syria. Then when the facts on the ground (YPG and U.S. support for it) hit them in the face, they changed that policy to "we support the territorial integrity of Syria". That posturing has no effect on the reality of a "northern authonomous Kurdistan region of Syria". In Iran's case as well, your moral outrage and moralistic support for territorial integrity will not amount to anything, when there's a fact of "Autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iran" under the auspices of U.S.

When you develop policy, you look at the stuff you can control, and the stuff you can't. Then you control the things you can, and develop reactions to influence the stuff you can't control.

Another alternative is dreaming about controlling the stuff you can't, and then when the reality of the fact that you can't control it hits you in the face, bury your head in the sand and repeat the same chorus as you were singing before that fact had become reality.

I do not have the perfect answers as to what kind of policy could have been drawn up in the face of the reality of YPG on the ground, and the ways to control it, diminish its influence and spread and dissuade the powers from collaborating and strengthening it. But one thing is for certain; if you didn't dream about a territorially intact Syria with an Islamic Brotherhood admin at the top, you could have devised realistic policy towards what was inevitable and outside your control.

"The great middle-east project" and its goals are not all out of control and inevitable. But the disintegration of the "Islamic Republic" regime is. Ask any Iran expert, who knows Persian and has lived in that country for some time and is familiar with the cultural outlook and the state apparatus. Hence you devise policy about "South Azerbaijan" and "East Kurdistan", given this reality, not given your dreams about the territorial integrity of Iran. Unlike in Syria and Iraq, there's a huge number of Turks in that region. If you pursue your dreams, you will not be able to influence the process, giving up the ground for Kurdish militias to completely occupy "West Azerbaijan" and beyond, as your government is singing the chorus about "territorial integrity of Iran". If instead of pursuing dreams however, you look at it realistically, you will try to plan ahead, the way Iran plans ahead for disintegration of Turkey, having back-channel communication with PKK and its offshoots, along with Hizbullah and its political offshoots. They have trump cards when dealing with you. What you got? Your country has banned the only South Azerbaijani T.V. channel, has had made zero efforts to prop up and support political parties there, and bans their major activists from entering the country.
 

Philip the Arab

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It’s fordover

Maybe if my dreams could come true there would be nuclear sharing from Pakistan to the rest of the countries of the Middle East but alas…
 
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sup_lol

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1. This twitter acc seems to be kinda unreliable but who am I to judge but thats my personal opinion
2. Pakistani intelligence is not particularly neutral so i would take anything from them abt india with a massive grain of salt
3. It's seems to be a single twitter acc or very few accs spreading this narrative do whatever you want with that info
4. This is not proof this is hearsay
5. Israel has been infiltrating iran for decades and has gotten into the very depths of their leadership. They don't need indians who will never get power.
6. In reference to my 5th point, indians are not treated particularly well in the middle East and even spies among them will struggle to cause an impact compared to the actual spies in the government.

Point 2,5,6 are important, the rest is js my opinion

@TR_123456 look into this since I will have a biased opinion but i don't think this counts as proof of large amounts of Indian spies in Iran and looks a lot like hearsay
 
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Philip the Arab

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5. Israel has been infiltrating iran for decades and has gotten into the very depths of their leadership. They don't need indians who will never get power.
The reason Mossad is so powerful is because they have a shared ethnic loyalty towards eachother.

Arabs, Iranians and others are all snakes and will betray eachother for a couple shekels. Jews wont betray eachother for a million dollars.
 

sup_lol

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The issue is that you are giving nukes to what is probably the second most unstable region on the planet after africa(the places with constant civil war) and the region with a lot of extremists who if given access to such equipment have a decent chance of causing mass casualties
It’s fordover

Maybe if my dreams could come true there would be nuclear sharing from Pakistan to the rest of the countries of the Middle East but alathebissue t

It’s fordover

Maybe if my dreams could come true there would be nuclear sharing from Pakistan to the rest of the countries of the Middle East but alas…
 

AWP

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The reason Mossad is so powerful is because they have a shared ethnic loyalty towards eachother.

Arabs, Iranians and others are all snakes and will betray eachother for a couple shekels. Jews wont betray eachother for a million dollars.

that why for me I consider Hamas intelligence are solid like the mossad , both believed in something and fight for it despite the technological differences
 

Philip the Arab

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The issue is that you are giving nukes to what is probably the second most unstable region on the planet after africa(the places with constant civil war) and the region with a lot of extremists who if given access to such equipment have a decent chance of causing mass casualties
That is an American bullshit excuse that they tried to use to attack Pakistan. “Muh terrorists are gonna steal a nuke and fly a plane and attack someone”

If in KSA, and Turkey they aren’t vulnerable to extremism. You are vulnerable to hasbara.


I’m not saying give it to Syria or Iraq who are blatantly unstable.
 

TR_123456

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1. This acc seems to be kinda unreliable but who am I to judge but thats my personal opinion
2. Pakistani intelligence is not particularly neutral so i would take anything from them abt india with a massive grain of salt
3. It's seems to be a single acc or very few accs spreading this narrative do whatever you want with that info
4. This is not proof this is hearsay
5. Israel has been infiltrating iran for decades and has gotten into the very depths of their leadership. They don't need indians who will never get power.
6. In reference to my 5th point, indians are not treated particularly well in the middle East and even spies among them will struggle to cause an impact compared to the actual spies in the government.

Point 2,5,6 are important, the rest is js my opinion

@TR_123456 look into this since I will have a biased opinion but i don't think this counts as proof of large amounts of Indian spies in Iran and looks a lot like hearsay
I am referring this to @Nilgiri ,he has more knowledge about the situation and knows what to do about it.
 

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when i started to see that appear in the news again i thought how convenient and yet how predictable. But lets be honest grape gangs over here will mean very little to Pakistan over there.

Its the same time Turkiye ever tried to move on the PKK. The media over here was always Turks genociding Kurds. People in Britain think they live in a free society when in reality its locked up from top to bottom. Once you realise that everything they say and do becomes predictable.
 

GoatsMilk

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As for Turkiye if the crusader coalition decides to attack Pakistan then it has to be war. Pakistan should be arming Turkiye with nukes as an insurance against the worst that can take place. If Turks sit back and allow them to destroy Pakistan that will be a grave mistake. If the Turks asses its obvious that after iran their going after pakistan, then Turkiye and Pakistan must come together now and help Iran.

don't let them continue to pick their enemies off one by one.
 

TheInsider

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The US is expected to launch an air campaign on Iran in the next 48 hours. Some EU countries might also join the operation.
 

Nilgiri

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I am referring this to @Nilgiri ,he has more knowledge about the situation and knows what to do about it.

Maybe best way is to wait for Iran to announce who they arrested....among the Mossad and allied operatives they have supposedly picked up.

That maybe happens lot later (after fog of war) if it at all happens (who knows where Iranian regime is headed following days, weeks and months, we can only observe).

I don't trust twitter accounts as any kind of proof.

But twitter operates in general on tons of speculation and rumour milling on all kind of things to begin with, on lot of things already posted in general in the forum.

So IMO, if no forum rules are broken, people can post from twitter and other folks can make up their mind how trustworthy it is in end for themselves.

Members should just stay on topic as possible, and be careful what they call "as proof/" or "confirmed" when using twitter in current fog of war especially.
 

Angry Turk !!!

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What's Türkiyes plan if Iran falls? Because I can guess what israel/us wants to do with southern Azerbaijan.
 

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