Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that in order to secure votes for the "Big Beautiful Bill" pro-Ukrainian Senators and Congressmen quietly demanded additional military aid for Ukraine behind the scenes. Apparently the Trump administration agreed and will start quietly sending weapons to Ukraine again, behind the scenes.

WSJ, citing multiple sources, is reporting that the White House has requested that the Pentagon prepare a new Patriot Battery for Ukraine from the U.S. existing inventory. The Americans are reportedly also working with European countries to facilitate the transfer of another European system as well.

2 additional Patriot Batteries would bring Ukraine to at least 10 in total... We know the following have been donated so far.

Germany : 3 Batteries
USA : 3 Batteries
Romania / Norway : 1 Battery
Israel : At least 1 Battery
USA : 1 Battery pending
European Union : 1 Battery pending

The drone war in Ukraine is actively developing. The video shows an attack by a Russian FPV drone on a Ukrainian remotely controlled robotic platform delivering cargo. The video was filmed near Seversk in the Donbass. It also shows attacks by Russian drones on other Ukrainian tracked platforms. The drone models are not reported.

Relic said:

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that in order to secure votes for the "Big Beautiful Bill" pro-Ukrainian Senators and Congressmen quietly demanded additional military aid for Ukraine behind the scenes. Apparently the Trump administration agreed and will start quietly sending weapons to Ukraine again, behind the scenes.

WSJ, citing multiple sources, is reporting that the White House has requested that the Pentagon prepare a new Patriot Battery for Ukraine from the U.S. existing inventory. The Americans are reportedly also working with European countries to facilitate the transfer of another European system as well.

2 additional Patriot Batteries would bring Ukraine to at least 10 in total... We know the following have been donated so far.

Germany : 3 Batteries
USA : 3 Batteries
Romania / Norway : 1 Battery
Israel : At least 1 Battery
USA : 1 Battery pending
European Union : 1 Battery pending

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/trump-says-putins-assurances-on-ukraine-meaningless-af8fc373

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There are rumors that Fitzpatrick (one of the most pro-Ukrainian Republicans) voted no on the Big Beautiful Bill in part because of Ukraine aid, but there's a bit more to it than that. Fitzpatrick is in a very contested district and the Big Beautiful Bill is quite unpopular. Voting no on it will help him preserve his seat, and in the end his vote was not necessary for its passing. Nonetheless, his no vote was shocking, and he reportedly left Congress in a hurry after casting it, while Johnson and other representatives searched for him to convince him to change his vote. I don't know which other representatives demanded additional military aid to Ukraine in exchange for their votes, and the article doesn't actually mention anything about it.

Isn't the Israeli battery one of the three delivered US batteries? Israel sent it to the US to be refurbished and the US counted it as one of the three it delivered. I'm pretty sure the "Israeli" Patriot is the one here: https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.go...esident-joe-biden-on-u-s-support-for-ukraine/

Russian specialists from the Bars-Sarmat Center conducted a high-quality detailed technical inspection of the captured unmanned boat of the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian sea drone is based on a Mexican-made jet ski. It was launched from the Odessa region and was moving towards Crimea. The second part of the video is an inspection of the satellite navigation system. The sea drone reportedly has a range of up to 400 km, at a speed of up to 90 kilometers per hour, and a warhead of 150 kilograms of explosives.

Footage of the strike of a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile on a Ukrainian hangar near the settlement of Baratovka in the Nikolaev region of Ukraine. The hangar was used by the 35th separate marine brigade of Ukraine. Judging by the video, an Iskander-M missile with an air burst and a shrapnel warhead was used. Note the colossal amount of fragments; all objects within the radius of the missile explosion are damaged.

Episode of the assault by Russian troops on the village of Bessalovka in the Sumy region of Ukraine. The village was stormed on July 7 by units of the 56th Guards Airborne Assault Don Cossack Regiment and the Novorossiysk Guards Airborne Assault Mountain Unit. The assault was carried out by small groups with the support of aviation, artillery and drones. The groups entered in the morning and occupied strongholds of the Ukrainian army on the outskirts of the village. After that, the Ukrainian army sent reinforcements. As a result of the battle, the Ukrainian units were forced to retreat. The video has been shortened, the dead have been removed.

Among the weapons that USA has started sending to Ukraine again are the following...

- GMLRS (HIMARS)
- 155mm Artillery Shells
- 105mm Artillery Shells

It's being reported (citing anonymous sources in the Government) that USA paused a shipment of air defense missiles for Ukraine last week. The shipment consisted of 30 Patriot Missiles, 150+ Hellfire Missiles, as well as others that were not named. It sounds like Trump is going to send this shipment, but there has been no clarification regarding g the specifics.

Breaking news tonight. After failed negotiations with the Russians, Donald Trump has agreed to sell weapons to NATO, for furtherance to Ukraine. The United States will jot pay for the weapons, but will allow NATO to buy the weapons directly from the U.S. for shipment to Ukraine. The weapons will NOT be limited to defensive weapons.

Marco Rubio stated the Americans will be asking nations set to receive Patriot Batteries to allow them to be sent to Ukraine instead and wait for new systems to be built in order to back fill their orders.

NATO countries will use funding from the $50 Billion usd loan to Ukraine they announced earlier this year, as well as the $150 Billion usd fund they created for members + Ukraine to buy weapons.

Russian kamikaze drones "Geran-2" struck the Ukrainian military registration and enlistment office in Odessa. There may have been strikes on other objects. Judging by the video of Odessa residents, the drones came from the sea to attack. Some drones were shot down with small arms, as they were flying at a low altitude. It is worth noting that there is no missile air defense in the video, perhaps it is on the outskirts of the city.

Soldier30 said:

Russian kamikaze drones "Geran-2" struck the Ukrainian military registration and enlistment office in Odessa. There may have been strikes on other objects. Judging by the video of Odessa residents, the drones came from the sea to attack. Some drones were shot down with small arms, as they were flying at a low altitude. It is worth noting that there is no missile air defense in the video, perhaps it is on the outskirts of the city.

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The Russians are targeting the TCC offices recently, probably as propoganda since the TCC is probably among the most hated organizations in ukraine right now( a lot of dragging people into cars and shipping them off to the frontline).

Are they any ukranians here? I really hope I can get their perspective on the TCC and this bombing

@Woland ?

Big problem with Ukraine is that the PAC-3 missiles they use that successfully intercept the Iskander and Kinzhal missiles are running out. US cant produce enough of them to meet the numbers needed. Russians are saturating the battlefield with these so called hypersonic missiles. They are hyoersonic in midcourse. But they slow down in terminal phase and are intercepted by the PAC-3s.
Another problem is that Ukraine need to fire minimum 2, more likely 3 PAC-3s to intercept a Kinzhal or Iskander.
Where as big majority of the Russian missiles were being intercepted before May this year, now that the PAC-3 quantities are less, the interception rate has fallen sharply.
Also, a PAC-3 is around 4 million dollars a piece. Yet it costs Russians 400 to 500 thousand dollars to produce an Iskander. When Russia fires 6 Iskander at Kiev at a cost of 3 million dollars, Ukraine has to respond with 12 to 18 PAC-3s at a cost of 48-72 million dollars. That is unsustainable.
US can’t produce enough PAC-3s. Their production is capped at 650 PAC-3 a year. Yet Russians can produce this amount of missiles in a quarter.

This is a very good live experiment we as Turkiye should be watching very carefully. Interceptors like siper block 3 should cost much less than the incoming target missiles.

Yasar_TR said:

Big problem with Ukraine is that the PAC-3 missiles they use that successfully intercept the Iskander and Kinzhal missiles are running out. US cant produce enough of them to meet the numbers needed. Russians are saturating the battlefield with these so called hypersonic missiles. They are hyoersonic in midcourse. But they slow down in terminal phase and are intercepted by the PAC-3s.
Another problem is that Ukraine need to fire minimum 2, more likely 3 PAC-3s to intercept a Kinzhal or Iskander.
Where as big majority of the Russian missiles were being intercepted before May this year, now that the PAC-3 quantities are less, the interception rate has fallen sharply.
Also, a PAC-3 is around 4 million dollars a piece. Yet it costs Russians 400 to 500 thousand dollars to produce an Iskander. When Russia fires 6 Iskander at Kiev at a cost of 3 million dollars, Ukraine has to respond with 12 to 18 PAC-3s at a cost of 48-72 million dollars. That is unsustainable.
US can’t produce enough PAC-3s. Their production is capped at 650 PAC-3 a year. Yet Russians can produce this amount of missiles in a quarter.

This is a very good live experiment we as Turkiye should be watching very carefully. Interceptors like siper block 3 should cost much less than the incoming target missiles.

Swamped? The Math of Ukraine’s Missile Crisis

There are ominous development in Russia’s aerial bombardment of Ukraine but the West is failing to understand the dangers.

cepa.org

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Looks like the saying "The best defense is a good offense" has a lot of truth in it.

Yasar_TR said:

Also, a PAC-3 is around 4 million dollars a piece. Yet it costs Russians 400 to 500 thousand dollars to produce an Iskander. When Russia fires 6 Iskander at Kiev at a cost of 3 million dollars, Ukraine has to respond with 12 to 18 PAC-3s at a cost of 48-72 million dollars. That is unsustainable.

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This is one of the biggest mistakes the West is making when helping Ukraine. The insistence on high cost tier 1 air defence missiles like the PAC-3, which cost a lot of money, is a strategic mistake. It wastes a lot of resources for very little effect.

The money spent on Patriot systems and missiles should have been spent on offensive missiles. Ukraine would have done so much more if the same money would have been spent on Tomahawks, Taurus, Storm Shadows, SCALPS and other missiles to strike deep inside Russia.

In order to win this war, Ukraine needs the weapons to strike the Russian MIC. They need long range strike capabilities and the intelligence to strike the right targets. Instead, they receive expensive anti air missiles to defend against the products of the Russian MIC.

The easiest way to defend against Iskanders and Kinjals is to destroy the factories that build them. Much cheaper and effective than shooting at them with PAC-3s.

contricusc said:

This is one of the biggest mistakes the West is making when helping Ukraine. The insistence on high cost tier 1 air defence missiles like the PAC-3, which cost a lot of money, is a strategic mistake. It wastes a lot of resources for very little effect.

The money spent on Patriot systems and missiles should have been spent on offensive missiles. Ukraine would have done so much more if the same money would have been spent on Tomahawks, Taurus, Storm Shadows, SCALPS and other missiles to strike deep inside Russia.

In order to win this war, Ukraine needs the weapons to strike the Russian MIC. They need long range strike capabilities and the intelligence to strike the right targets. Instead, they receive expensive anti air missiles to defend against the products of the Russian MIC.

The easiest way to defend against Iskanders and Kinjals is to destroy the factories that build them. Much cheaper and effective than shooting at them with PAC-3s.

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If I would be an Ukrainian and see how the east of Ukraine looks like Palestine while Moscow goes on their daily live, i'd be pissed beyond imagination.

If the ukrainians want to see some positive change (from their PoV ofc) then they have to turn relevant russian cities into dust. That will wake up the avg. russian that wars ain't fun.

contricusc said:

This is one of the biggest mistakes the West is making when helping Ukraine. The insistence on high cost tier 1 air defence missiles like the PAC-3, which cost a lot of money, is a strategic mistake. It wastes a lot of resources for very little effect.

The money spent on Patriot systems and missiles should have been spent on offensive missiles. Ukraine would have done so much more if the same money would have been spent on Tomahawks, Taurus, Storm Shadows, SCALPS and other missiles to strike deep inside Russia.

In order to win this war, Ukraine needs the weapons to strike the Russian MIC. They need long range strike capabilities and the intelligence to strike the right targets. Instead, they receive expensive anti air missiles to defend against the products of the Russian MIC.

The easiest way to defend against Iskanders and Kinjals is to destroy the factories that build them. Much cheaper and effective than shooting at them with PAC-3s.

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Congress wants to give Israel b2 bombers.

That just shows how much they lick zionist balls.

If Ukraine was given the same capabilities they would end the war.

Lol so now Europe HAS to BUY weapons from the US and then send them to Ukraine, how much lower can Europe go? Its absolutely pathetic, no backbone at all.
Trump is completely dominating and asserting his will on Europe, and Europe looks as weak and spineless as ever ( as hard as that is to believe to be able to drop even lower).
Not to mention the huge tariff rates hes going to impose soon, and forcing NATO members to pay 5% on defense even tho the US spends 3.3%.
Can't Europe find better leaders? Its pathetic.

FiReFTW said:

Lol so now Europe HAS to BUY weapons from the US and then send them to Ukraine, how much lower can Europe go? Its absolutely pathetic, no backbone at all.
Trump is completely dominating and asserting his will on Europe, and Europe looks as weak and spineless as ever ( as hard as that is to believe to be able to drop even lower).
Not to mention the huge tariff rates hes going to impose soon, and forcing NATO members to pay 5% on defense even tho the US spends 3.3%.
Can't Europe find better leaders? Its pathetic.

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Lol this take is ridiculous...

Europe's increase in production of military equipment and munitions is happening in real time, however, it takes a long period of time to go from where they were, with dismal production, to where they're going, which will be significant. In the meantime, the United States greatly ramped up production under the Biden Government, creating new jobs and expanding factories / creating new ones, in order to equip Ukraine, handle a surge in foreign orders and backfill U.S. inventories. The U.S. production is in place and many Ukrainian brigades have become skilled and adept at using Americans weapons. Furthermore, the U.S. simply has the mix of quality and quantity SURPLUS systems and munitions (Patriot, PAC 2/3 Missiles, AIM-120 Missiles, AIM-120 Missiles, IFVs, APCs, MRAPs, etc) that Europe does not have to spare.

Ukraine was given a $50 Billion usd loan earlier this year, which they literally cannot spend fast enough in European markets currently, because timelines for marquee item production is backed up due to Europe's current domestic demands. Ukraine could order hundreds of IFVs from Germany and Sweden for example, but they'd be looking at delivery timelines starting in the 2027 range. As for air defense systems and interceptors, Ukraine has purchased as many IRIS-T systems and interceptors as Germany can produce. France and Italy are sending every Aster Missile for SAMP/T that they can afford to send. Britain is sending hundreds of ASRAAM Missiles and 5000 Martlet Missiles over an extended period of time. Ukraine simply cannot spend the remainder of the $50 Billion in Europe or domestically, and receive weapons at the pace they need to make up for the attrition they're facing.

Furthermore, the EU has agreed on a 175 Billion usd fund to support loans for the purchase of weapons from Europe and close Allies. Ukraine has special access to that fund as well. They'd be insane not to approach the Americans about selling weapons to them using both pots of money currently available to them. Especially sophisticated weapons that have proven highly effective, of which only the Americans can supply at quantity and pace.

Germany will send 2 additional Patriot Batteries to Ukraine. Norway will send 1 additional Patriot Battery. NATO will purchase new systems from the U.S., who will send them to Ukraine "urgently". The U.S. will send additional PAC 2/3 missiles to help supply these systems will interceptors.

The EU is now discussing a larger package that would see a collective effort taken to purchase even more aid defense for Ukraine, from multiple suppliers, namely USA (Patriot), France (SAMP/T), Norway (NASAMS), Germany (IRIS-T) and Britain (ASRAAM with launcher).

Relic said:

The EU is now discussing a larger package that would see a collective effort taken to purchase even more aid defense for Ukraine, from multiple suppliers, namely USA (Patriot), France (SAMP/T), Norway (NASAMS), Germany (IRIS-T) and Britain (ASRAAM with launcher).

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Wasting money on air defence, while there is no talk of Taurus, Tomahawks or other long range missiles, which is what Ukraine actually needs.

No amount of Patriots, NASAMS, IRIS-T or any other air defence systems will be able to stop Russia from launching hundreds of drones daily at Ukraine. There is only one way to stop that, and that is based on offensive capabilities. The Russian MIC needs to be targeted inside Russia. Otherwise, we will continue to see nightly waves of drones and missiles exhausting Ukraine’s air defenses, no matter how many new missiles the West sends.

Israel bombed Iran in order to stop the missiles coming. The same must be done with Russia. Anything else is just wasting money down the drain, while Ukraine continues to lose lifes.