How will oil prices get reduced when OPEC+ clearly dont want to reduce oil prices to such low levels as this will mean less profits to the Gulf Tycoons and the Russians are facing embargoes after embargoes which means they have to sell their oil more expensively through the backdoor to Western nations
I think there are a number of factors involved in an excess of supply over demand appearing soon if it has not already appeared. A couple of possibilities for this I have heard (no guarantee they are right)
- Saudi Arabia wants to increase production to increase its share of the market for crude
- Producers want to make it difficult for US shale oil production to make a profit, so are prepared to increase production to lower crude prices to a level where shale oil production is unattractive
Now a new factor may be in the producers' minds: Russia may not be able to ship as much crude for export due to Ukrainian action damaging pipelines and port loading facilities. OPEC+ members will be pleased to cover the reduction in Russian exports by increasing their own production.
I don't think that customers for Russian oil will pay Russia a higher price. I think it is the other way round - it will be a buyer's market for Russian crude, putting customers in a position to demand bigger discounts to buy crude from Russia.
PS I believe that India and China bought less crude in the last month or two, perhaps fearing repercussions from buying Russian crude. US may put pressure on Turkiye to buy less as well. Turkiye needs GE engines for its KAAN (as I am sure you know) but it is reported that Congress has blocked supply. I imagine that is a serious problem.
PS I think OPEC+ members may also like a lower crude price to discourage US companies from following Trump's advice to 'drill, baby, drill' which should increase crude supply, softening prices in the long term.