Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Soldier30]

A Ukrainian firefighter witnessed the impacts of Russian FAB bombs, the location of the shooting was not reported..

 

[Spitfire9]

Good news in 2 ways for me today

- the price of fuel I put in my car is likely to fall in the next few months
- the price that Russia gets for each barrel of crude it sells is likely to fall in the next few months

Brent crude is expected to drop from around $66 a barrel to the mid-$50s in 2026, according to investment giant Macquarie, with prices driven down by oversupply.

Urals to sell for less than 50 USD per barrel next year?

MSN

 

[contricusc]

Urals to sell for less than 50 USD per barrel next year?

Ukraine will try to fix the oil oversupply issue by decommissioning more Russian refineries and oil export terminals.

 

[Relic]

Today it was announced that Ukraine received a $4.6 Billion usd tranche of funding from the EU part of the ERA mechanism. This loan will be paid back using interest generated from frozen Russian assets. $2.3 Billion usd will fund the enormous surge of cash that the EU announced towards Ukrainian drones production.

New $4.6 Billion EU Aid for Ukraine Secured from Frozen Russian Assets

Ukraine has secured a $4.6 billion aid package from the EU, utilizing frozen Russian assets to strengthen its defense efforts.

united24media.com

 

[Soldier30]

A combat episode involving Russian special forces in Ukraine. The video shows Russian special forces ambush a foot patrol and attack a Ukrainian army pickup truck. Filmed in the rear area of Ukraine, the exact location is not disclosed. The dead have been removed from the video

 

[Lool]

Good news in 2 ways for me today

- the price of fuel I put in my car is likely to fall in the next few months
- the price that Russia gets for each barrel of crude it sells is likely to fall in the next few months



Urals to sell for less than 50 USD per barrel next year?

MSN

How will oil prices get reduced when OPEC+ clearly dont want to reduce oil prices to such low levels as this will mean less profits to the Gulf Tycoons and the Russians are facing embargoes after embargoes which means they have to sell their oil more expensively through the backdoor to Western nations

 

[Spitfire9]

How will oil prices get reduced when OPEC+ clearly dont want to reduce oil prices to such low levels as this will mean less profits to the Gulf Tycoons and the Russians are facing embargoes after embargoes which means they have to sell their oil more expensively through the backdoor to Western nations

I think there are a number of factors involved in an excess of supply over demand appearing soon if it has not already appeared. A couple of possibilities for this I have heard (no guarantee they are right)

- Saudi Arabia wants to increase production to increase its share of the market for crude
- Producers want to make it difficult for US shale oil production to make a profit, so are prepared to increase production to lower crude prices to a level where shale oil production is unattractive

Now a new factor may be in the producers' minds: Russia may not be able to ship as much crude for export due to Ukrainian action damaging pipelines and port loading facilities. OPEC+ members will be pleased to cover the reduction in Russian exports by increasing their own production.

I don't think that customers for Russian oil will pay Russia a higher price. I think it is the other way round - it will be a buyer's market for Russian crude, putting customers in a position to demand bigger discounts to buy crude from Russia.

PS I believe that India and China bought less crude in the last month or two, perhaps fearing repercussions from buying Russian crude. US may put pressure on Turkiye to buy less as well. Turkiye needs GE engines for its KAAN (as I am sure you know) but it is reported that Congress has blocked supply. I imagine that is a serious problem.

PS I think OPEC+ members may also like a lower crude price to discourage US companies from following Trump's advice to 'drill, baby, drill' which should increase crude supply, softening prices in the long term.

 

[Spitfire9]

Just to discredit Russian propaganda that some on this forum may still believe: there is a fuel crisis in Russia. Several refineries have not shut down production because they need 'repairs'. They have shut down production because they have been damaged by Ukrainian military action. Seala, a Russian energy markets analysis agency reports nearly 40% of the country’s refining capacity is no longer producing.

Ukraine’s new strategy of targeting oil refineries is taking its toll on Russia’s economy, dramatically cutting its refining capacity as the government seeks to balance massive military spending with falling revenue.
Citing data from Seala, a Russian energy markets analysis agency, the Russian business daily RBC reported that nearly 40 percent of the country’s refining capacity remains idle, mainly due to repairs after attacks.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/10/02/russia-oil-refining-attacks-shortage/

Here is a credible explanation of what is going on:

 

[Spitfire9]

Russia’s economy entered a recession after two years of over 4% annual GDP growth driven by military spending, according to VEB chief economist Andrey Klepach, per RBC. VEB, a major state bank funding Kremlin projects, reported a 0.6% GDP decline in Q2 2025 compared to Q1, following a similar 0.6% drop in Q1 from Q4 2024, signaling a technical recession.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1961949558633607537

To me it is starting to look like things are getting past the point of no return for the Russian economy. The government is strapped for cash. Ukraine's attacks on Russia's export crude loading facilities will have reduced government revenues from crude exports. Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries have provoked a transport crisis. The civil economy is in dire straits. The banks were forced to make risky loans to the MIC so may have a lot of potentially bad debt on their books. Consumers cannot service debt, falling more and more into arrears. The inflation rate for food is very high, forcing consumers who want to eat to spend less on other goods and services. Demand is set to be further reduced by a proposed increase in VAT from the start of 2026.

It seems to me that the only way is downhill more rapidly from here on for the government's finances, for the national economy and for Russia's ability to carry on the war in Ukraine. Time for me to get out the popcorn and watch the drama unfold.

I would urge Ukraine to refuse any peace proposals from Putin and to keep fighting until Russia's bitter end.

 

[Soldier30]

The use of a tracked kamikaze drone by the Russian 33rd Berlin Don Cossack Motorized Rifle Regiment in combat in Ukraine. The video shows a Russian ground-based kamikaze drone striking a Ukrainian army stronghold. The model of the robotic platform and the location of the filming were not disclosed. Such kamikaze drones are typically equipped with a TM-62M anti-tank mine. It's worth noting that ground-based kamikaze drones are increasingly being used in combat in Ukraine.

 

[Spitfire9]

I see Flamingo is now in use. Ukraine now has a longer range missile with no use limitations which puts it on an equal footing to Russia. I note that there are various threats coming from Russia regarding the possible use of Tomahawk. Russia seems to see this as escalation. I see this as evening things up - Russia uses cruise missiles to attack Ukraine. Why should it threaten terrible consequences if Ukraine uses cruise missiles to attack Russia?

 

[Soldier30]

Ukrainian An-196 "Lyuty" kamikaze drones attacked the Russian Orsknefteorgsintez oil refinery in Orsk, Orenburg Oblast. The refinery is located approximately 1,500 km from the Ukrainian border. The Orsk refinery is one of the largest in Russia, processing approximately 6.5 million tons of oil per year

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of the first unconventional use of the Russian Lancet-52 kamikaze drone, which struck a Ukrainian gas distribution facility near the village of Khorobichi in Ukraine's Chernihiv Oblast. Judging by the video, the drone strike damaged the gas distribution facility's equipment. For an unknown reason, the Geran-2 drone was not used in the attack.

 

[Relic]

Greece announced that they will send a military aid package to Ukraine valued at approximately $250 million usd. The package consists of the following:

- 60 M110A2 203mm Howitzers
- 150,000 203mm Artillery Shells
- 30,000 DPICM Cluster munitions
- Thousands of 70mm Hydra Rockets
- Thousands of 127mm Zuni Rockets

While considered obselete by modern standards, both Russia and Ukraine are using many pieces of artillery from this era. The M110A2 has a maximum effective range between 24 KM and 29 KM depending on the type of shell it uses. Greece is sending both.

Greece is being compensated by Europe for these weapons and the proceeds will be used to purchase new weapons for the Hellenic military.

Greece plans to transfer 60 howitzers and over 200,000 ammunition to Ukraine — online.ua

The Greek government plans to transfer to Ukraine a significant amount of military equipment and ammunition that are considered obsolete for its own armed forces.

news.online.ua

Греція передасть Україні самохідні гаубиці M110A2 та ракети Zuni: чим особлива ця зброя

Міністерство національної оборони Греції готує пакет військової допомоги для України, який, включає 60 самохідних гаубиць M110A2 калібру 203 мм, десятки тисяч снарядів та тисячі авіаційних ракет типу Zuni. Постачання планується здійснити через Чехію.

prm.ua

 

[Spitfire9]

Russia has called for the arrest of a former UK defence secretary and branded him a "terrorist" and "extremist", as tensions between Moscow and London threaten to boil over.

What did he do wrong to make him a 'terrorist' and 'extremist'? Did he organise the invasion of a neighbouring country, one recognised as a sovereign state by his own country? Was he responsible for the murder of countless civilians by forces under his control and the death of hundreds of thousands of soldiers?

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile strike on a camouflaged Ukrainian M142 HIMARS multiple launch rocket system. A transporter-loader vehicle and other vehicles, as well as approximately 15 personnel, were also located in the wooded area. An Iskander-M air-burst missile equipped with a shrapnel warhead was used in the strike. The video was filmed near the village of Sredniy Burluk in the Kharkiv region. Judging by the video, the Ukrainian military equipment was concentrated in a cluster, and a precise explosion in the center destroyed all of it with shrapnel

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a Russian FAB-3000 bomb with a UMPK module striking a Ukrainian bridge over the Seversky-Donets River. The FAB-3000 bomb was dropped by a Russian Su-34 aircraft. The video was filmed between Krasny Liman and Slavyansk, near the village of Raygorodok. Judging by the video, a temporary crossing was built near the bridge.
The FAB-3000 bomb struck the bridge, destroying the bridge span and damaging the crossing

 

[Relic]

Ukraine has quietly received BRAWLR air defense systems from USA . The number of such systems delivered is unknown at this time, but the systems have reportedly shot down more than 400 aerial targets.

BRAWLR is a truck mounted / portable and air defense system, compatible with a wide range of Western air defense missiles and rockets, including AIM-9, IRIS-T and ASRAAM. However, it best balances ability and cost effectiveness when equipped with laser guided APKWS rockets, of which it can carry 46 simultaneously. Armed with APKWS BRAWLR has a range of 6 KM and is highly effective against Russian drones. Each rocket costs approximately $35,000 and is a much cheaper solution to Russian drones than some of Ukraine's other rockets and missile inventory. USA also has production capacity of up to 25,000 units of APKWS per year, which means they can keep Ukrainian inventories stocked.

It Seems Clear who Secretly Receives BRAWLR Air Defense Armed with R-27, AIM-9M, APKWS | Defense Express

Although the BRAWLR air defense system’s manufacturer keeps its clients secret, evidence suggests Ukraine may be its sole operator

en.defence-ua.com

Mysterious User of BRAWLR Universal Air Defense System Already Destroyed 400 Air Targets - Militarnyi

Sierra Nevada's BRAWLR universal air defense system has helped an unnamed country shoot down 400 air targets.

militarnyi.com

 

[Spitfire9]

UKRAINE CONTINUES to inflict deadly damage on Russia’s energy infrastructure, and the tempo is accelerating. The concerted Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries and other parts of Russia’s fuel-distribution system began in August, and the number of strikes is rising from two or three a week to four or five.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/10/05/ukraines-hellfire-is-intensifying-the-kremlins-fuel-crisis

Flamingo cruise missile production is expected to soon reach 200 per month. Russia does not appear to have air defences able to stop them all. If Ukraine could get as few as 50 a month to hit critical parts of Russian refineries then train, truck, bus, car, air transport would be severely constrained as a result. It will be interesting to see how things develop in the next couple of months.

 

[contricusc]

Flamingo cruise missile production is expected to soon reach 200 per month. Russia does not appear to have air defences able to stop them all. If Ukraine could get as few as 50 a month to hit critical parts of Russian refineries then train, truck, bus, car, air transport would be severely constrained as a result. It will be interesting to see how things develop in the next couple of months.

I doubt they will be able to build 200 per month. If they can get even 50 per month, as you said, the damage to Russia would be great. 200 per month would be catastrophic for Russia.