Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Spitfire9 said:

We may see how stupid people are in a few months when Russian economic and financial figures feed through and the disruption and financial losses the Russian people experience become more apparent. Ukraine's economy and finances are not of great relevance since Europe is prepared to finance Ukraine.

Putin's blitzkrieg to eliminate Ukraine failed. I think that now his objective is to take the Donbas so he can declare victory to the Russian people and then seek a ceasefire but even taking the rest of the Donbas looks like it could take a long time. As for what is happening in Crimea, it looks like Russia cannot defend it from attack or supply it. Losing Crimea as a habitable piece of ground was not in the plan, was it? Putin will not want to sign Crimea over to Ukraine in a peace deal, its annexation having been his big achievement in his reign.

It looks to me like the war goes on for the time being.

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I wont hold my breath for an economic collapse, if they somehow know they are about to go for an economic collapse then "reactionary" measures will be turned to "raze things to the ground" measures. But as of now Ukraine is begging for a ceasefire while Russia still does "reactionary" measures.

Turkey has agreed to sell Ukraine the following weapons as they have become redundant for Turkey's military.

- 12x M270 MLRS
- 70x M39 ATACMS Ballistic Missiles
-2,524x M26 227mm Cluster Munitions
-47,000x M509A1 203mm Cluster Artillery Shells for 2S7 Pion and M110 Howitzers

@blackjack
This thing about population - both Russia and Ukraine have low birth rates and falling populations. I have family roots in several countries with birth rates that are below replacement level. Annual GDP per head in one of those countries exceeds 100,000 USD. That country has a small population. In another annual GDP per head exceeds 90,000 USD. That country has a large population. In another annual GDP per head exceeds 80,000 USD. That country has a small population. Comparative figures for Russia and Ukraine are less than 19,000 USD and less than 7,000 USD GDP per head respectively.

2 ways to contend with a falling labour pool: you can make labour more productive (which requires long term investment in education, training etc) or you can increase the labour pool by importing labour. West Germany had its Gastarbeiter (guest worker) system for many years, whereby foreigners could live and work in the country for many years but would eventually return to their home country. Another option is immigration on a permanent basis.

Countries with a culture that dislikes immigrants have a problem. Countries with political systems that reduce freedoms may have problems attracting foreign labour to live and work there. As a corrupt, authoritarian dictatorship run along the lines of a mafia state, Russia is not a very attractive state for foreigners to go and live in.

Increasing Russia's population by conquering other countries, eliminating the local culture and 'Russifying' the population is not the answer to a low birth rate in Russia.

Russian Offensive Assessment

Ukrainian drone operators have reported that the Russian army has begun using the "Arena-M" active protection system on tanks in combat in Ukraine. While footage of the system had been published previously, there had been no confirmation of its operational performance. According to the drone operators, a Russian T-72B3A tank equipped with the "Arena" system destroyed seven Ukrainian FPV drones. Due to the tank being fitted with both "Mangal" armor and the "Arena-M" active protection system, it took approximately 15 FPV drones to successfully destroy a single tank. It can now be stated that, unlike the Israeli "Trophy" protection system, the Russian "Arena-M" active protection system is functional and has been combat-proven.

Soldier30 said:

Ukrainian drone operators have reported that the Russian army has begun using the "Arena-M" active protection system on tanks in combat in Ukraine. While footage of the system had been published previously, there had been no confirmation of its operational performance. According to the drone operators, a Russian T-72B3A tank equipped with the "Arena" system destroyed seven Ukrainian FPV drones. Due to the tank being fitted with both "Mangal" armor and the "Arena-M" active protection system, it took approximately 15 FPV drones to successfully destroy a single tank. It can now be stated that, unlike the Israeli "Trophy" protection system, the Russian "Arena-M" active protection system is functional and has been combat-proven.

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I am not sure how to view a defensive system that forces the attacker to use 15 drones for the tank to be destroyed. If APS does not stop the tank being destroyed, is it a big success? Possibly yes since it stopped the first 14 drones.

Putin looks for a viable military path.

Key Takeaways​

1. Russian forces are reprioritizing the production of their long-range strike systems to those that can more reliably penetrate Ukrainian air defenses and accurately strike their targets.
2. Russia is refocusing its drone production toward faster jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones that are harder to intercept as Ukrainian forces have increasingly fielded effective defenses against Russia’s piston engine-driven strike drones, such as earlier versions of the Geran in recent months.
3. Russia will increasingly target Ukrainian energy infrastructure in winter 2026/2027.
4. Russia’s reprioritization of production efforts toward ballistic missiles will support Russian efforts to use the upcoming winter to break Ukraine’s will to fight. The Kremlin believes that it can exploit Ukraine’s shortage of interceptor missiles to avoid having to enter meaningful negotiations or make concessions on its maximalist demands. The recent dramatic reduction in the supply of Patriot anti-missile interceptors will therefore contribute to the protraction of the war into 2027.
5. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets on August 10.
6. Russia launched one Kh-59/69 cruise missile, three Banderol-type loitering munitions, and 126 drones against Ukraine overnight.
7. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces advanced on August 10.