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  1. Woland

    Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

    Sweden announced a new $444 million package: 6 Combat Boat 90 combat boats Robot System 70 anti-aircraft missile systems funds to support Ukrainian drones camouflage equipment for previously transferred equipment, armor-piercing and small-caliber projectiles, recoilless rifles and anti-tank...
  2. Woland

    Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

    I've written here previously what I think the reasons for the Kursk invasion are. Optics are incredibly important for ensuring support continues or increases. Polls show that American voters want Ukraine to win and view Russia very negatively. You can see the impact Kursk had below: The US's...
  3. Woland

    Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

    There are approximately 6.6 million Ukrainians who left Ukraine as of July 2024. Not according to Ukraine, but according to the countries where they reside. The only way to get from 6.6 million to your 12-15 million figure is by making up numbers out of thin air.
  4. Woland

    Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

    Germany military aid update, delivered in the past 3 weeks: 2 IRIS-T SLS launchers 10 Sonobot 5 USVs 26 Vector UAVs 1 Bergepanzer 2 ARV 6 High Mobility Engineer Excavators (armoured) 50 CR 308 rifles 10 HLR 338 precision rifles 700 MK 556 assault rifles 14,000 155mm shells material for...
  5. Woland

    Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

    For now I would give it 20%. Although the Senate is more pro-Ukrainian than the House, it's still going to be a challenge, and some Senators will prefer to delay to see who wins in November. Graham and Blumenthal often introduce legislation that has low chances of passing (like their recently...
  6. Woland

    Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

    StratCom wrote today that Ukraine has now matched Russia's 2024 gains. In other news, Ukraine is continuing to press for permission from the US use ATACMS and the UK to use Storm Shadows, to strike targets on Russian territory. The Biden administration is still refusing to grant permission...
  7. Woland

    Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

    I think it's a bit of several: 1. Incur more losses onto RU than UA is taking 2. Show that Ukraine is still capable of taking the initiative, which is essential to Ukraine continuing to receive support from the West. This goes for both politicians and voters. 3. Boost the morale of Ukrainians...
  8. Woland

    USA US Presidential Elections 2024

    The Republican party of today can be divided into four groups. People are certainly more complex than four categories, but like most categorizations the purpose here is to simplify a complex dynamic to make it easier to understand and draw conclusions. Grifters. Trump, Murdochs, Elon Musk...
  9. Woland

    Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

    NATO summit declaration got released: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227678.htm Some highlights, though overall it's pretty unimpressive: New rhetoric: The just released declaration states that Ukraine's membership in NATO is irreversible: "we will continue to support it on...
  10. Woland

    Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

    The most reliable information we have regarding what a Trump administration's policy towards Ukraine could look like comes from this: https://americafirstpolicy.com/issues/america-first-russia-ukraine The writers are expected to hold senior positions in a Trump administration, and are part of...
  11. Woland

    Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

    You're making a lot of noise over very little: 1. This is for registration, and the only thing that would change is that currently it is ages 18-24 that are registered, whereas this proposal would make it 18-26. There is no draft. 2. This has been passed only in the House. In order to become law...
  12. Woland

    Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

    Unfortunately so far Israel remains opposed to selling Ukraine its Patriot systems. There are several groups working on this but without much progress.
  13. Woland

    Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

    A couple Patriot updates today: - Biden has approved the transfer of an additional Patriot system for Ukraine, according to the NYT - Scholz announced the transfer of Germany's 3rd Patriot system to Ukraine in the coming weeks - On April 17, Netherlands' Mark Rutte's announced that he is looking...
  14. Woland

    Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

    I wouldn't say she's a Russian stooge. Spartz is mentally unstable, populistic, and very dumb. She was elected from a rural district in Indiana, is very pro-Trump, and her whole platform is based around her past as an accountant and that as a result she is in a position to manage money in DC...
  15. Woland

    Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

    You're posting fake information. Here is where the photo was taken from: https://www.facebook.com/lozovanews/posts/pfbid02c4w5onGXY2ku3ogg54nhRwYCUqNVDfyJeNBGHQWSnmYapGmNTVv5VvS8XjxCvsYMl It has nothing to do with wives giving up their husbands.
  16. Woland

    Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

    Sorry, let me correct myself and elaborate: The ~$15 billion assessment describes what Ukraine would realistically receive, both military and economic, in 2024. Realistically HR 815 provides for: Economic Aid to Ukraine: $8,249,000,000 Short Term Military Aid: $6,907,409,800 Long Term Military...
  17. Woland

    Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

    This is just politics, and stupid politics at that. HR 815 (the bill for arming Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan that has passed the Senate but stalled in the House), has $60 billion aimed at countering Russia in Ukraine, of which about $15 billion would actually go to Ukraine soon while the majority...
  18. Woland

    Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

    More absurd statements and Russia fanboyism. Russia already has more land and resources than any country on our planet. And yet, Russia is #134 in life expectancy, #68 in GDP per capita and 22.6% of Russians don't have indoor plumbing. Russia's GDP is smaller than Italy's; it's actually close...
  19. Woland

    Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

    This remains unlikely, what Macron said was that he declines ruling out French troops in Ukraine, but that they’re not needed now. What Naryshkin is doing meanwhile is reinforcing the narrative that Russia is not just fighting against Ukraine, but all of NATO. This makes it easier for Russian...
  20. Woland

    Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

    More laughingly absurd statements followed by whataboutism. Russians and Ukrainians are not the same. While Russians accepted as their government regressed from some semblance of democracy in the 1990s to dictatorship, Ukraine had two revolutions. In 2004, an attempt at election rigging sparked...

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