Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Woland]

To any more informed analysts among us, what are the key goals for this attack by Ukraine? Is it just to relieve pressure and draw in Russian units, a prelude to negotiations to strengthen their hand, or are there big strategic targets in the area that they want to target and destroy? How far do we think they will try to advance?

I'm wondering whether they will seek to hold the territory, or at some point quickly withdraw back beyond their border to avoid losses?

Also, any information as to whether the Russian volunteer regiments are involved in this incursion?

I think it's a bit of several:
1. Incur more losses onto RU than UA is taking
2. Show that Ukraine is still capable of taking the initiative, which is essential to Ukraine continuing to receive support from the West. This goes for both politicians and voters.
3. Boost the morale of Ukrainians, both military and civilian
4. Provide Ukrainians with a stronger position for future negotiations, as well as make it difficult for Trump (if he wins) to force unfavorable conditions onto Ukraine

As far as I know Ukraine is only using experienced units for this attack. Freedom of Russia Legion and others are not involved, and have not posted anything about being involved.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage has been published of a Russian kamikaze drone "Lancet-52" striking a Ukrainian armored vehicle "Kozak-2" in the Sudzhansky district of the Kursk region of Russia. The armored vehicle "Kozak 2M.1" was introduced in 2016 and can have small arms or a 40-mm automatic grenade launcher UAG-40. There were two drone attacks in total, the first strike on the car on the road, after the car went off the road, the second strike destroyed the armored vehicle "Kozak-2".

 

[carlitob]

what's really obvious from this is that Russia doesn't have, or hasn't organised, any kind of mobile reserve.

Surely any large and decently organised military would keep a quick reaction mobile / armoured force ready for any cross border raids or incursions.

This is a hugely importantly region, with a nuclear plant within touching distance. Is this just another example of shocking Russian organisation, or a sign they are down to the bare bones of their armoured vehicle availability?

You cant even use the excuse that the Russians were just caught off-guard, as the Wagner mutiny and raids by the anti Russian volunteer forces gave ample warning that this kind of thing was possible, and needed to be guarded against.

I would love to hear what my Russian friends think of this, unfortunately they have been silent now for a number of weeks :-(

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1823057856599335095

The US has openly announced its support for Ukraine's attack on the Kursk region on Russian territory.

 

[Relic]

Food for thought. In 6 days Ukraine has taken 80% as much land in Russia as Russia has taken in Ukraine throughout the entirety of 2024. Ukraine has lost a handful of armored vehicles and very few personnel. Russia, on the other hand, has lost tens of thousands of soldiers and thousands of armored vehicles to achieve their marginal gains.

 

[TheInsider]

Armed Forces of Ukraine is trying to secure the area west of the Sudza-Khomutovka line. Korenovo and Rilsk are major targets. If successful I doubt Russians can regain control of that territory.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a head-on battle in Girya, Kursk Oblast, between a Ukrainian armored personnel carrier BTR-4E and a Russian armored personnel carrier BTR-82A. Both combat vehicles are armed with 30-mm 2A72 cannons. In general, the combat vehicles are approximately equal, but the Russian BTR-82A opened fire first, which decided the outcome of the battle, the BTR-4 caught fire. It is worth noting that, according to all the facts of the use of equipment in battles in Ukraine that have been shown over the past 2 years, it was important who first noticed the enemy, this decides the outcome of the battle.

 

[Woland]

Food for thought. In 6 days Ukraine has taken 80% as much land in Russia as Russia has taken in Ukraine throughout the entirety of 2024. Ukraine has lost a handful of armored vehicles and very few personnel. Russia, on the other hand, has lost tens of thousands of soldiers and thousands of armored vehicles to achieve their marginal gains.

StratCom wrote today that Ukraine has now matched Russia's 2024 gains.

In other news, Ukraine is continuing to press for permission from the US use ATACMS and the UK to use Storm Shadows, to strike targets on Russian territory. The Biden administration is still refusing to grant permission, despite pressure from many members of Congress, both Democrats and Republicans.

Senators Blumenthal and Graham returned from a trip to Ukraine where they met with Zelensky, and released the following statement: https://www.blumenthal.senate.gov/newsroom/press/release/blumenthal-and-graham-on-visit-to-ukraine

Summary:

1. "After listening to President Zelensky, we urge the Biden Administration to lift restrictions on weapons provided by the United States so they can strike the Russian invaders more effectively."
2. "We will introduce the Stand With Ukraine Act [...] in September. This bipartisan piece of legislation will codify the bilateral security agreement reached by the Biden Administration and Zelensky’s government this past July."
   
   This is important because only treaties ratified by the Senate (two thirds needed) are considered legally binding past the Presidential term of the President who signed the treaty.
   
   
3. "We urge NATO to issue an invitation this year to Ukraine for membership, making real what has been described as inevitable."
4. "President Zelensky was excited about a strategic agreement with the U.S. regarding the more than a trillion dollars-worth of rare earth minerals owned by Ukraine and expressed a commitment to create a working group with the U.S. to make this happen."
5. "President Zelensky told us both that he would be looking to supplement his Air Force by establishing a program to enlist retired NATO F-16 fighter pilots. We support this effort."
6. "Now is the time to form a strategic partnership with Ukraine that can have tremendous economic benefits to the United States and lead to stability in Europe. Ukraine has demonstrated it has a genuine desire to join the democratic family of nations. We must not abandon them in their hour of need. We should accelerate the gains that have been achieved through dogged determination and courage."

 

[Spitfire9]

Senators Blumenthal and Graham returned from a trip to Ukraine where they met with Zelensky, and released the following statement: https://www.blumenthal.senate.gov/newsroom/press/release/blumenthal-and-graham-on-visit-to-ukraine

Summary:

1. "After listening to President Zelensky, we urge the Biden Administration to lift restrictions on weapons provided by the United States so they can strike the Russian invaders more effectively."
2. "We will introduce the Stand With Ukraine Act [...] in September. This bipartisan piece of legislation will codify the bilateral security agreement reached by the Biden Administration and Zelensky’s government this past July."
   
   This is important because only treaties ratified by the Senate (two thirds needed) are considered legally binding past the Presidential term of the President who signed the treaty.
   
   
3. "We urge NATO to issue an invitation this year to Ukraine for membership, making real what has been described as inevitable."
4. "President Zelensky was excited about a strategic agreement with the U.S. regarding the more than a trillion dollars-worth of rare earth minerals owned by Ukraine and expressed a commitment to create a working group with the U.S. to make this happen."
5. "President Zelensky told us both that he would be looking to supplement his Air Force by establishing a program to enlist retired NATO F-16 fighter pilots. We support this effort."
6. "Now is the time to form a strategic partnership with Ukraine that can have tremendous economic benefits to the United States and lead to stability in Europe. Ukraine has demonstrated it has a genuine desire to join the democratic family of nations. We must not abandon them in their hour of need. We should accelerate the gains that have been achieved through dogged determination and courage."

What are the chances of the proposed Ukraine Act going through?

 

[Woland]

What are the chances of the proposed Ukraine Act going through?

For now I would give it 20%. Although the Senate is more pro-Ukrainian than the House, it's still going to be a challenge, and some Senators will prefer to delay to see who wins in November. Graham and Blumenthal often introduce legislation that has low chances of passing (like their recently renewed attempt to label Russia a State Sponsor of Terrorism). Work has also begun on legislation to continue funding Ukraine into the new year, no matter who wins, which will take precedence and political capital. I'll be in DC in September for meetings with members of Congress and will get a better idea then.

 

[UkroTurk]

Footage of a head-on battle in Girya, Kursk Oblast, between a Ukrainian armored personnel carrier BTR-4E and a Russian armored personnel carrier BTR-82A. Both combat vehicles are armed with 30-mm 2A72 cannons. In general, the combat vehicles are approximately equal, but the Russian BTR-82A opened fire first, which decided the outcome of the battle, the BTR-4 caught fire. It is worth noting that, according to all the facts of the use of equipment in battles in Ukraine that have been shown over the past 2 years, it was important who first noticed the enemy, this decides the outcome of the battle.

Situational awareness is much more important than the weapon if the lives of soldiers are expensive for the armies Currently 360degree motion detector sensors and early warning softwares are not necessary as both sides use old battle doctrines.

 

[Agha Sher]

Food for thought. In 6 days Ukraine has taken 80% as much land in Russia as Russia has taken in Ukraine throughout the entirety of 2024. Ukraine has lost a handful of armored vehicles and very few personnel. Russia, on the other hand, has lost tens of thousands of soldiers and thousands of armored vehicles to achieve their marginal gains.

You need to start following russian telegram channels as well for a more balanced view.

ukraines endeavor into kursk has had a much greater cost than what you say. many dozen dead Ukrainians soldiers and destroyed vehicles have been filmed by the russians.